I'm betting on J&J to be the first with large scale capability:
I hope you put more thought into passing your backwoods economics classes than this. I suspect you haven't the slightest idea of our monetary policies in the past century.Laissez-faire again - yes!!
I'm ready to talk economics whenever you're done deflecting with your illusionary economic knowledge superiority. 3 replies in and you haven't even mustered a legitimate rebuttal. 'Haha, memes!'
I don't waste my time with frauds. Besides, this thread is about covid-19. Later kid!
Typical Trump mouthpiece Dunning-Kruger. More posturing and less knowhow, tragic.
They will certainly need to work together as Sanofi and GSK have. Manufacturing is going to be the problem even when a suitable vaccine has been developed. About 5 billion doses will be needed worldwide to get anywhere near the 60% figure for herd immunity to have an impact. Making 5 billion doses is one thing, getting those doses into 5 billion people is another.
The goal of vaccination will be to control next year, assuming this is still around (it should be). Herd immunity is not relevant here if this behaves similarly to influenza and returns seasonally. Vaccination will likely need to be annually. And there is the whole unknown of how many have already been infected, were basically asymptomatic, and now have some immunity. Preliminary studies here in the states (Santa Clara is the largest to date) suggest as many as 50-80 times more people may have very mild cases of this compared to symptomatics. NY state is conducting an even larger serological study right now.
Herd immunity will apply at a local (country) level, but trying to achieve it globally will be difficult (although has been achieved for other diseases such as Smallpox where it was eradicated by vaccination) - that is how vaccination works to control diseases. In the case of COVID you need around 60% population immunity to stop spread ballooning out of control (assuming the R0 of 2.5 is correct) You can acquire immunity from vaccination or natural infection and either will provide protection for an as yet undefined period of time. This (currently unknown) duration of immunity will actually be a major factor in determining what control measures will work best. This is also why lockdown release is such a big risk - it is estimated, as I said yesterday, that NY has seen about 10 to 15% of the population exposed, well short of the 60% figure. This means 'no controls' will result in a second sudden increase of cases - it is hoped lesser, but still significant controls will stop this happening, but there will be periods of tougher controls and then more relaxed periods depending on cases.
Actually there is some preliminary evidence, at least if you want to believe the Chinese:
That is interesting, but at the lower end of statistical confidence and a pretty narrow range of temperatures. They also quote that this is not consistently the case for the whole of China suggesting they may have cherry picked some data. I don't think believing them or not is a problem, but interpreting a weakly correlated set of data might be.
Just as well others don't share your certainty, or at least those developing vaccines who know considerably more about the subject. I assume you are fully up to speed with the novel developments into adenovirus vaccine vectors that are being done at the University of Oxford here in the UK ? I'm not suggesting that there is a complete response to your bold statement yet, but your two over simplistic sentences really are not worth the pixels they take up and certainly can't be considered definitive based on the evidence you have presented.
