I see we are on the same page here :headbonk:
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UPDATED MUSTANG DELIVERY TIMING ESTIMATE
- Thread starter RisingForce
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I see we are on the same page here :headbonk:
TOC - Eli needs to get involved right now! :kickrock: :( If Eli was still with us he would make sure my Mustang got an engine.While I am no expert in Ford's scheduling processes for this car at this plant, I can draw some suppositions about the commodity report from my previous Mustang ordering experience, as well as how the logistics people I support at my company operate. I have no doubts there are others who can flesh out, correct, or refute what I say.
Constrained components are identified and planned for early in a production cycle. It takes time for the component to arrive to the manufacturing site, so this is one key factor. Another thing being balanced is the demand for the various models as seen by the orders (dealer stock up to now, and retail as of today or next week, depending on what's been scheduled as of today). A third key factor is cost minimization to store components in inventory. I am sure many folks have heard of "just-in-time". I guess that many of the component parts arrive at the Flat Rock plant not too far ahead (days to weeks) of their use.
These three things have impact, as well as how many components come at one delivery time to the plant - a set of number that is usually tries to minimize cost while keeping the manufacturing line running. These are logistical puzzles to solve weekly, maybe even daily, depending on the components involved.
This all said, I understand the commodity reports as something to give dealers visibility to factors that "might" impact which orders get selected and when the vehicles might be built. It's a way to give early warning, not necessarily something that predicts a "stock out" without any adjustments being made. In other words, the report about the engine says "based on our current supply, we're running low, so we should make some adjustments". The adjustments might be to get the supplier to agree to produce more than what's in a typical batch, sequence out the orders to avoid running out, slow down a production rate, etc.
There are people who have the job responsibilities to be looking at all of this information and then take action to either stay ahead of a "stock out" or minimize the amount of time something runs out and becomes a constraint. This stuff changes, as I mentioned before, likely daily and in what we know about Mustang manufacturing so far, weekly at most.
Do I think V8 engine are going to run out this week? I am not sure because I don't know how big the initial batch was, but I suspect "NO". Might Ford be working to increase the supply of V8s already? Possibly, although it really depends on how many different models have been scheduled for the production line at the rate they are currently running. So I take this report more as an "FYI", not as a "oh, man, I won't see my car until next year".
Don't forget that some of our dealer friends and others have commented about quality holds. I don't know what the criteria is for releasing the car, although I would guess one major part is how much the line is running without needing to stop and go back to do major re-work on a certain number of cars for whatever reasons. Assuming to the "OK to buy" is achieved next week as has been smartly speculated here, then I would guess Ford's schedulers are already adjusting their plans according to the demand for the GTs against the EcoBoost and V6s. If we knew what those order mixes were, we could maybe make some predictions about which model needs to have the most attention in terms of engine supply.
If you have read through all this, then I commend you because this stuff seems immaterial when you are anxiously waiting. However, I have worked with my logistics people enough to know we have many people trying to work across many suppliers to make sure stuff comes together so it can get out into the marketplace as fast as possible, all without compromising quality or causing an increase in the price passed on to the consumer. And these people work EVERY DAY to do this.
I say "don't despair"
Moonshoot69
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Thanks for the reply Tony. Everything you say makes perfect sense. I am a veteran in the automotive market owning a large shop. I know about getting parts in, work flow, etc. Just not on THIS SCALE. When I was going through Ferrari school in Maranello they actually talked about how Ford and Toyota where masters at keeping assembly lines flowing with having just the right amount of parts at the factory which in turn keeps cost down. If you have to store parts at factory it equals larger factory etc. Having said all of this I just can't help but think Ford somewhat made an error here. I believe the best selling Mustang model will be the ECOBOOST. However most early adopters are mustang fans. MOST will order the GT. No knock on the ecoboost or V6. I have a feeling Ford didn't account for this. By this time next year I would expect ECO Boost sales to eclipse the GT.
...and so does :ford:
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Papaya
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Are you serious?
:hail:I don't like to stir up more dust. But can they now Build more EcoBoost Mustang? I know. This is not good for all the GT fans. :tsk:
:hail:I don't like to stir up more dust. But can they now Build more EcoBoost Mustang? I know. This is not good for all the GT fans. :tsk:
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Ferrari school - woo hoo!! That's AWESOME! "Drive a Ferrari" is on my list to do.
Looking at what we know, and this is only my guess, I suspect the EcoBoost engine supply is maybe a bit slower ramping up, especially since the lead time to get it is probably longer since it is sourced from Spain. I am fairly certain Ford is acting with the constraints in mind, while longer range plans will take into account the greater sales volume. This planning is so dynamic that the brief snapshot we have through one week's commodity report might be masking what the intent longer down the road will be.
Again, I suspect Ford's plan takes into account the likely future sales for EcoBoost Mustangs. We're just at the beginning of the production cycle. Please take everything I say with a grain of salt because I am only interpreting based on my own company's experience with products which are not complex automobiles. I'd love to talk to their logistics people and see what variables drive what they do. To me, it's still amazing these cars get out the door, given the number of parts involved.
Seabee1973
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Lol... yeah they go by weeks in a calendar year... someone's math sucks and I am not great at that myself but with more complex equations...
Free Agent
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Good points by Tony and others here in the thread.
The key word is logistics. I would guess that there have been more dealer order GT's than Ford expected. This gives me a feeling they have probably underestimated the amount/mix of GT's that are going to go into the system when retail/customer orders get scheduled here in the next 1 to 2 weeks. Or they may have already known that and they are just having problems with a supplier.
Whatever the case, there is a big push for GT's here at the start when we enthusiasts are ordering them. After that push I think there will be a greater mix of EB and V6 for "the masses" as was stated above.
The key word is logistics. I would guess that there have been more dealer order GT's than Ford expected. This gives me a feeling they have probably underestimated the amount/mix of GT's that are going to go into the system when retail/customer orders get scheduled here in the next 1 to 2 weeks. Or they may have already known that and they are just having problems with a supplier.
Whatever the case, there is a big push for GT's here at the start when we enthusiasts are ordering them. After that push I think there will be a greater mix of EB and V6 for "the masses" as was stated above.
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TexArmageddon
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I would Like to add that when the Camaro Released they assumed V8s for the enthusiasts and the V6 for the rest/women.. They never expected a large influx of Women/Men V8 orders. I wonder if the same is happening to Ford.
oyitsagreen
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Yes, the automotive industry uses the calendar week for scheduling. Doesn't matter if it's American, German or Japanese, they use the CW to control schedules from the beginning with suppliers to the final day parts are needed on a product line as they wrap production.
clrsky
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I ordered my GT Premium on May 23, order shows in Ford on 6/14. I have had a VIN assigned since about 7/11 but nothing other than order processing. The dealer says the car is to be built on 9/22 but the ETIS site shows build date as "30.11.0002" Does anyone know how to makes sense of all this???
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