I like COVID 19

[Burkey]

I hear what you are saying, but the reality is that sometimes the favourite saying 'can you explain that in simple terms' is just not possible because by simplifying you miss out the complicated bits that validate the information.

As somebody who regularly has to explain the difference between specificity and sensitivity of an antibody test I can assure you that some people just can't get it. And even that is a simplistic explanation of how antibody testing is validated.

I remember clearly learning Krebs cycle at 'O' levels, then being told at 'A' levels to forget everything we had been taught because it is more complicated, and then at degree level being told it was even more complicated so forget 'A' level teaching. And that is Krebs cycle which almost nobody other than a science level degree person will even have even have heard of.

Then my Masters degree level engineer son starts explaining supersonic airflow which makes no sense compared to subsonic airflow ...

The list goes on. Sometimes there is very specialised stuff that the man in the street will never be able to comprehend because they simply don't have the required knowledge or skill set to understand the explanation.

This will cause problems with the general public when something seems counter intuitive and 'obviously' wrong, when in fact it isn't. This is where the skill of the interpreter comes in to inspire the confidence in those that are never going to be able to understand to trust those that do. Not a nice concept for some people, but unless you want the human race to always be governed by the lowest common denominator then that is how it has to be.

This is why I find people like Trump, Bolsanaro, Putin and Kim Jong Un so frustrating because they think they know better, when that mere action proves they don't. They are too stupid and narcissistic to accept that they don't have the required knowledge or understanding about what they proclaim. Sadly their sycophantic followers reinforce their delusions.

Regarding the bit about assumptions - I agree you try and fill in gaps as best you can, but assumptions are the mother of all f**k ups and will come back to bite you one day !

This forum needs a “I love the absolute shit out of this post” function rather than “like”.

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[Burkey]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52717161

Dear oh dear. Obviously the bleach got a bit much for him ?

Expect deaths from from copy cat use by unsuitable patients, plus profiteering from unofficial sources and fake medicines.

 

[Gregs24]

The liberal use of words like "can't" and "not possible" are telling and very non-American. Explains why Einstein became American.

Einstein takes the burden of explanation upon himself, rather than minimizing the intellect of the message recipient. As good professors know: "If the student fails to learn, the teacher failed to teach." As good advisors and strategic planners live by, "They don't need to know everything you know; they need to know what they need to know." Each of those adages, like Einstein's, requires self confidence and humility. As for appearing obviously wrong, that's where leadership must intersect with humility.

Can't speak for the world, but one cannot help but be gravely concerned with the implications of undeniable facts, "With about 120,000 tests a week, the UK lags behind France as Europe’s worst performer."

Not sure what experience as a strategic planner would lead one to believe that assumptions are the biggest risk of strategic planning...not conjecture...professional experience. It simply isn't true.

It was all going so well !

Assumption - a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof. The last bit explains the danger

You then revert back to bashing anything non-American and suggest that only Americans are capable of understanding stuff that the rest of us are obviously incapable of explaining or understanding. Everything can be explained if you have the knowledge and understanding of the principles involved, but that key point is the problem. Some people don't have those key skills. Maybe they could learn them given time, but maybe not. You have to understand that rate of learning is a factor here - there are some people out there that given enough years could understand supersonic airflow but you would need to start with maths first before even the concepts being explained are fathomable and they may die of old age before they even get there.

Try this example paper https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0307904X06002514

Even Einstein would have a job explaining this if you didn't have a deep mathematical understanding. It wouldn't be the explainers fault trying to explain this to a man in the street - you simply wouldn't bother as it would be impossible to comprehend without significant years of study first. As I said it is not a comfortable concept for many people that something they don't understand simply cannot be explained to them without them improving their core knowledge and skills first. If it was that simple you wouldn't need experts in the first place because it would all be so easy to understand. I can assure you there were plenty of things I had to work bloody hard to understand over the years and I am pretty sure it isn't because I lack American genes.

As regards Einstein becoming American - it had something to do with being Jewish and German at a time when the two didn't mix terribly well !

As regards UK testing - yes it is clearly a problem and has been for some time - if you want to take some delight and score some points then well done, but I will not be defending it and am not responsible for it.

 

[Caballus]

Assumptions based planning is a professional method for dealing with uncertainty. It is used to mitigate danger. The alternative is either to execute haphazardly relying on "intuition" or misinformation, which we see a lot of these days, or to not plan at all (paralysis by analysis). So, no, assumptions made by professionals to fill planning gaps are not dangerous; quite the opposite. Contextualizing (again) in terms of COVID, responsible representatives need to identify the gaps, make (informed) assumptions to fill those gaps, communicate the risk based on those assumptions, and tell what they are doing to validate the assumptions over time. That can be done in very simple terms.

Deep problems don't require deep explanations. If someone cannot explain a complex issue in simple terms it is either because they lack the intellect to do so, they are arrogant and want to impress others with how much they know, or they don't want to take the time to simplify the issue...that is a simple (and true) explanation of human nature. It could easily be elaborated in deep sociological, psychological and anthropological terms.

No bashing going on here. Only concern. Not sure how you twisted it into something else. No pleasure taken in the fact that "With about 120,000 tests a week, the UK lags behind France as Europe’s worst performer." Nor should anyone feel compelled to explain or defend this fact (not assumption) any more than someone not responsible for U.S. policy should feel compelled to defend that.

 

[Caballus]

As regards Einstein becoming American - it had something to do with being Jewish and German at a time when the two didn't mix terribly well !

Einstein. The US has long provided an environment conducive to innovation. Scientists, businesses and artists have flourished in this environment. The computer you're typing on, your smart phone, your GPS navigation, your Gortex jacket, the movies you watch, the music you listen to...oh, the car you drive.

Of course, Einstein did not want to return to Europe as the war was looming (even to Switzerland, where he lived prior to his visit). That does not negate the fact that he was in the U.S. for scientific purposes and chose to remain a U.S. citizen until his death. That has nothing to do with DNA; it has to do with the same factors that make Ford Mustangs a success around the world.

 

[Gregs24]

Deep problems don't require deep explanations. If someone cannot explain a complex issue in simple terms it is either because they lack the intellect to do so, they are arrogant and want to impress others with how much they know, or they don't want to take the time to simplify the issue...

Fundamentally wrong. Complex issues are not simple (or they would be called simple) Some things in life just are not simple and cannot be converted into simple. If a complex issue cannot be explained in simple terms it is because it is too complicated to explain in simple terms, not that the teacher is inadequate.

I suspect you think you know what antibodies are for example, only you actually know what the general public take to mean antibodies in simple terms (I am assuming in this that you are not an immunologist.) I can assure you the simplistic version you understand is merely scratching the surface of a whole subject that people spend years researching and investigating. In order to understand the subject properly you will need to start with a University degree, then a PhD and then more research on top of that.. Without that an immunologist is wasting his or her time attempting to get you to understand the details of the subject, without which true informed decisions cannot be made. This is why countries employ experts in the field to guide policy, unless you are DT when of course you know better !

Yes, you can give simplistic answers to questions, but within that will be complex issues which mean that 'simple' answer will be a very broad brush stroke.

 

[Gregs24]

Einstein. The US has long provided an environment conducive to innovation. Scientists, businesses and artists have flourished in this environment. The computer you're typing on, your smart phone, your GPS navigation, your Gortex jacket, the movies you watch, the music you listen to...oh, the car you drive.

Of course, Einstein did not want to return to Europe as the war was looming (even to Switzerland, where he lived prior to his visit). That does not negate the fact that he was in the U.S. for scientific purposes and chose to remain a U.S. citizen until his death. That has nothing to do with DNA; it has to do with the same factors that make Ford Mustangs a success around the world.

As has the UK (and arguably for longer) which has a similar long list of inventions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_inventions_and_discoveries

Don't forget that phone is made in China, as are the PC components etc.

The computer was invented by Charles Babage an Englishman. I wasn't aware the US was the source of all the music I listen to and films I watch, maybe you should let all of the non US artists know they are American ?

There is nothing wrong with being proud of your countries inventions and products but don't think for one minute it has the monopoly on such things.

 

[Caballus]

Fundamentally wrong. Complex issues are not simple (or they would be called simple) Some things in life just are not simple and cannot be converted into simple. If a complex issue cannot be explained in simple terms it is because it is too complicated to explain in simple terms, not that the teacher is inadequate.

Not sure what you're talking about. The point is about explaining complex issues in simple terms. The explanation is simplified, not the issue. We are dealing with people of average intelligence who deserve respect for their ability to comprehend complex issues presented, by experts, in simple terms. That's how the world works. Otherwise, leaders would work for the experts, rather than the other way around.

I suspect you think you know what antibodies are for example, only you actually know what the general public take to mean antibodies in simple terms (I am assuming in this that you are not an immunologist.) I can assure you the simplistic version you understand is merely scratching the surface of a whole subject that people spend years researching and investigating. In order to understand the subject properly you will need to start with a University degree, then a PhD and then more research on top of that.. Without that an immunologist is wasting his or her time attempting to get you to understand the details of the subject, without which true informed decisions cannot be made. This is why countries employ experts in the field to guide policy, unless you are DT when of course you know better !

Why would one need to be an immunologist to make a decision involving immunity? Morever, from where do you draw the notion of, "in order to understand the subject properly...?" Who determines a proper understanding? Proper for what? Immunologists do not make decisions for society, they inform decisions. Policy advisors do not make or guide policy, they inform policy makers. We need only consider how often experts in a given field actually agree to recognize that, while valued, their input does not guide decisions, but informs them.

Quite frankly, hard sciences are much easier to explain and draw planning factors from than social sciences. Truly not that difficult.

Experts are expected to be able to contextualize their input and explain it in a way that allows decision makers (and the public) to understand and make informed decisions, hence, the art of decision making.

 

[Caballus]

As has the UK (and arguably for longer) which has a similar long list of inventions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_inventions_and_discoveries

Don't forget that phone is made in China, as are the PC components etc.

The computer was invented by Charles Babage an Englishman. I wasn't aware the US was the source of all the music I listen to and films I watch, maybe you should let all of the non US artists know they are American ?

There is nothing wrong with being proud of your countries inventions and products but don't think for one minute it has the monopoly on such things.

No need to be defensive. It's not a matter of pride, a matter of fact. Consider the ratio of inventions coming from other places compared to the U.S. Consider the draw for academic, scientific and artistic freedom. Of course things are invented elsewhere. Of course, music and films come from elsewhere. But do the math(s). Americans did not come to England for freedom... Nice Mustang, by the way.

Edit. The phone is made in China...point is where did the technology originate? Surely one would not believe that China would offer greater room for individual innovation than the U.S. does. Really?

 

[Caballus]

Note the difference:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_inventions

 

[Gregs24]

The point is about explaining complex issues in simple terms. .

Which as I have said many times, with examples, is not always possible.

No point further discussion and we will just have to agree to disagree

 

[Gregs24]

No need to be defensive.

Maybe you should have said 'The US alongside the UK and other innovative countries has long provided an environment conducive to innovation. Scientists, businesses and artists have flourished in this environment.

 

[Gregs24]

Note the difference:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_United_States_inventions

Oooh now who is getting defensive. Thank goodness for the cup cakes !

 

[Caballus]

Maybe you should have said 'The US alongside the UK and other innovative countries has long provided an environment conducive to innovation. Scientists, businesses and artists have flourished in this environment.

The U.S. alongside would be a MIScharacterization. The U.S. is a standout in this category, which is a primary source of its power and influence, even if one argues that it is waning. Again, just fact.

Oooh now who is getting defensive. Thank goodness for the cup cakes !

Not defensive, simply substantiating the statement above. Facts are facts. The above post explains those facts in simple terms . As for cupcakes, obesity is an area where the U.S. and UK are neck and neck. So, I can understand the British appreciation for cupcakes .

 

[Gregs24]

The U.S. alongside would be a MIScharacterization. The U.S. is a standout in this category, which is a primary source of its power and influence, even if one argues that it is waning. Again, just fact.


Not defensive, simply substantiating the statement above. Facts are facts. The above post explains those facts in simple terms . As for cupcakes, obesity is an area where the U.S. and UK are neck and neck. So, I can understand the British appreciation for cupcakes .

You do have an over simple view of the world

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