I like COVID 19

[Gregs24]

https://www.newsweek.com/michigan-c...-armed-protesters-against-gov-whitmer-1504241

Tragic. MAGA - trouble is was it ever great with morons like this on the streets ?

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[Bikeman315]

https://www.newsweek.com/michigan-c...-armed-protesters-against-gov-whitmer-1504241

Tragic. MAGA - trouble is was it ever great with morons like this on the streets ?

Greg these folks, many of them paid out of state phonies, are an extreme minority. They make themselves visible and the media eats it up. Fortunately the majority of Americans, both Democrats and Republicans are not like this.

 

[Gregs24]

A few more interesting COVID related bits of research

Vitamin D levels have a correlation with the number of cases, now this may be related to climate as well, but interestingly Spain and Italy are much warmer but have relatively high numbers of cases. It turns out people in both of these countries suffer with low Vitamin D levels because they keep out of the sun and extreme heat. This does not mean Vitamin D is a cure for COVID (before the Donald has everybody taking vitamin D tablets) but interesting nevertheless.

Additionally sampling in NY has shown that 99% of people who tested positive for COVID have gone on to produce IgG to the virus which is the antibody type commonly used to determine immunity. This suggests that there is immunity post COVID for a period of time.

In the UK there is now virtually no community spread of COVID with almost all cases related to hospitals and care homes - lets hope we can keep it that way (community spread bit)

Tracing of positive cases is going to be key to lockdown release - the Austrian nightclub case being a particularly good example where hundreds have become infected from one person. You are going to either have to give up some of your privacy 'rights' to allow tracing or end up back in lockdown when cases spike again. Don't let moronic right wing 'freedom fighters' waving their guns about ruin it for you. This is a time for community and cooperation not angry protests.

 

[Burkey]

A few more interesting COVID related bits of research

Vitamin D levels have a correlation with the number of cases, now this may be related to climate as well, but interestingly Spain and Italy are much warmer but have relatively high numbers of cases. It turns out people in both of these countries suffer with low Vitamin D levels because they keep out of the sun and extreme heat. This does not mean Vitamin D is a cure for COVID (before the Donald has everybody taking vitamin D tablets) but interesting nevertheless.

Additionally sampling in NY has shown that 99% of people who tested positive for COVID have gone on to produce IgG to the virus which is the antibody type commonly used to determine immunity. This suggests that there is immunity post COVID for a period of time.

In the UK there is now virtually no community spread of COVID with almost all cases related to hospitals and care homes - lets hope we can keep it that way (community spread bit)

Tracing of positive cases is going to be key to lockdown release - the Austrian nightclub case being a particularly good example where hundreds have become infected from one person. You are going to either have to give up some of your privacy 'rights' to allow tracing or end up back in lockdown when cases spike again. Don't let moronic right wing 'freedom fighters' waving their guns about ruin it for you. This is a time for community and cooperation not angry protests.

 

[Bikeman315]

I’m a motorsports fan. Mainly open car, but I will watch the NASCAR race this weekend. There will not be any spectators which is good. They will also be testing all of the drivers, team members and supporting casts. But all it is going to take is one person on one team testing positive and the entire sport gets shut down. This is what happened with Indycar.

My point is this shows how fragile our “comeback” is. Everyone is in such a hurry to get back to normal (whatever that is now) that the very real possibility of a relapse is lost in the shuffle.

 

[Gregs24]

I’m a motorsports fan. Mainly open car, but I will watch the NASCAR race this weekend. There will not be any spectators which is good. They will also be testing all of the drivers, team members and supporting casts. But all it is going to take is one person on one team testing positive and the entire sport gets shut down. This is what happened with Indycar.

My point is this shows how fragile our “comeback” is. Everyone is in such a hurry to get back to normal (whatever that is now) that the very real possibility of a relapse is lost in the shuffle.

F1 is trying to restart in July with teams effectively permanently quarantined between races and isolated at races with constant testing. Two races back to back weekends in Austria (which is owned by Red Bull so helps a bit) followed by two races back to back at Silverstone then probably 3 or 4 more European races in August. Hopefully then Canada early September and maybe US at COTA before moving to Asia.

 

[Hack]

As long as the hospitals aren't getting overwhelmed we need to stop this shut down crap. The "cure" is worse than the illness.

 

[Bikeman315]

As long as the hospitals aren't getting overwhelmed we need to stop this shut down crap. The "cure" is worse than the illness.

I want you to be right! I want you to be right! I want you to be right! Please be right!

 

[Hack]

I want you to be right! I want you to be right! I want you to be right! Please be right!

I believe we need to do more to protect the elderly and those with health problems, but most people should be able to go back to work and get the economy going. None of us want to go through a severe economic crash.

 

[Bikeman315]

I believe we need to do more to protect the elderly and those with health problems, but most people should be able to go back to work and get the economy going. None of us want to go through a severe economic crash.

Agreed. The local news here is starting give recovery numbers as well as total cases and deaths. Gives you a much better overall outlook. My fear is it’s only going to take one infected person going to a Starbucks or something to start this all over again.

 

[Hack]

Agreed. The local news here is starting give recovery numbers as well as total cases and deaths. Gives you a much better overall outlook. My fear is it’s only going to take one infected person going to a Starbucks or something to start this all over again.

Most people have already had it. I have a few reasons for believing this. One is, the people in elder care facilities didn't get Covid during their world travels. Covid came to them where-ever they were. So that means to me the disease has been around. Another is, they tested all the workers at meat processing plants and found quite a few had Covid. The news called them "hot spots", but logic says that if you test everyone at a single business, that's not a hot spot - it's a representative sample.

 

[Biggus Dickus]

Most people have already had it. I have a few reasons for believing this. One is, the people in elder care facilities didn't get Covid during their world travels. Covid came to them where-ever they were. So that means to me the disease has been around. Another is, they tested all the workers at meat processing plants and found quite a few had Covid. The news called them "hot spots", but logic says that if you test everyone at a single business, that's not a hot spot - it's a representative sample.

If most people have had this - which may be true - why is the US death continuing to rise without significant abatement? Are people getting reinfected and dying? Is long-term immunity not conferred with infection? And, therefore, is "herd immunity" not part and parcel to widespread infection? I'm not being a smart-ass - just posing the question. Here's my reference:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/us-map

"confirmed cases" is grossly less than "actual cases", but "deaths" are kind of hard to exaggerate.

 

[Gregs24]

Most people have already had it. I have a few reasons for believing this. One is, the people in elder care facilities didn't get Covid during their world travels. Covid came to them where-ever they were. So that means to me the disease has been around. Another is, they tested all the workers at meat processing plants and found quite a few had Covid. The news called them "hot spots", but logic says that if you test everyone at a single business, that's not a hot spot - it's a representative sample.

Sadly there is no data to back up this view, in fact currently some early antibody surveys are suggesting very low penetration of the population. Even in places like NY it may only be 10% to 15%. Having said that the difficulty with antibody testing is that in order to 'calibrate' the test you need some known positive and negative cases. Very small changes in cut offs can mean very big differences in numbers. Evidence from some tracing events in other countries such as Austria and S Korea recently where one person has resulted in many hundreds of new cases also does not support the argument that many are already immune.

The next problem is how long any immunity lasts from natural exposure and from vaccination when it becomes available. These are all population factors that will impact on spread. As long as you can get somewhere near to 60% of the population with some form of immunity the R0 cannot go above 1. This means no horrible spikes but doesn't mean the disease doesn't spread.

We are going to be living with some forms of social distancing and restrictions on daily life to a greater or lesser extent for a few years. We will need to develop new working methods and be flexible. In the words of JFK 'Ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country !

 

[Caballus]

As long as you can get somewhere near to 60% of the population with some form of immunity the R0 cannot go above 1. This means no horrible spikes but doesn't mean the disease doesn't spread...

Where are you getting "somewhere near to 60%?" Everything that I've read says more like 70%. Not an insignificant difference. Not arguing; simply trying to understand the facts. Got a reference?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-ou...ty-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

 

[Gregs24]

Where are you getting "somewhere near to 60%?" Everything that I've read says more like 70%. Not an insignificant difference. Not arguing; simply trying to understand the facts. Got a reference?

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/from-ou...ty-against-covid-19-a-dangerous-misconception

It is down to maths. (R0 - 1)/R0 is the calculation, so with an R0 of 2.5 it is 60% and R0 of 3 is 66%, R0 of 3.5 is 71% for herd immunity.

It is however a lot more complicated than that as firstly the R0 will be different in different subsets of populations nationally (such as in care homes) and also as more people become immune the available hosts fall so the R0 falls - which is why when 60% of the population have antibodies the R0 falls to 1. It isn't a switch at 60%, it is a gradual decrease from 2.5 to 1 between 0% and 60%

For diseases such as measles with an R0 of as much as 18 you need 94% of the population immune to stop logarithmic increases.

The R0 for COVID 19 is probably around 2.5 but maybe a little more

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-...tion-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/

So for example in NY, even left uncontrolled now the R0 will be lower than in a state with a naive population, it will still be more than 1 though.

Another important factor is that in most virus outbreaks the pathogenicity tends to fall with time. This is partly mutations, but primarily that the more severe strains get transmitted less easily as the victims are often in hospital and die meaning they can't pass it on. Milder asymptomatic strains are easily spread as people don't know they have it and spread it around. It also explains why a lot of health workers have the more serious strains as they are working in the places the more severe cases are present. They also get a higher viral load which is known to increase the severity of disease.

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