Financial decision having regrets now

[Sivi70980]

in NYC with it's plentiful rat population we'll all rig up wheels out of coat hangers and make them run. When one rat dies of exhaustion plop onother on the wheel. It'll take a few weeks to charge the EV but it'll eventually get there and you can cook the rats for dinner - electricity and a meal in a single package.

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[sk47]

Cheap oil's affect on our civilization was much like the effect of meth on an individual. We sure got a lot of stuff done quickly. But burnout is inevitable. The price of oil will go up, sure. But eventually you hit a point where it takes more energy to extract it then the barrel provides in return. Once we get to that point, if we haven't transitioned to renewable energy, we are screwed. Electric isn't necessarily inevitable (unless mineral costs go down due to tech increases), but it does fill a need given how much more efficiently it converts input to output (kinetic energy). It's tempting to think we're clever enough to find another cheat code, but thermodynamics is a bitch. You have to bow down to it eventually. EROI (energy return on investment) will always be king and the most important factor.

I'll save waxing poetic about how a system built on infinite growth is unsustainable in a finite system.

Hello; I understand your post. Fossil fuels are finite. Here is my take on what has spurred the rush to an EV future prematurely. First is the tech back in the early 2000's which freed up a lot of oil and natural gas. Gave us some more decades of oil and maybe more of natural gas.

My take is the thought of several more decades of massive oil use got some into a panic. Those convinced oil is the great environmental evil likely started to worry about the impact from the use of the oil. Back around 2000 or so the future of oil seemed bleak with peak oil predicted to be at 2004. The dream of the demise of oil was snatched away for a few decades.
The early hybrids and EV's simply cannot compete with an ICE vehicle unless the fuel cost is very high on the ICE. Instant torque is about the only positive for an EV. So the dream of oil being gone was faded and they were struggling to make inroads into the vehicle market. I think they got something around 2% or so of EV sales.
I will concede the EV will be better than nothing when in fact the oil and natural gas is gone in practical quantities. All the long charging times and other problems will be good enough if you do not have a choice. Problem is we still have enough fossil fuels to have a choice. So a game changer was needed.

We got two game changers. One was the climate predictors changed from saying we are headed into another ice age to we are heading into warming. So the message became stop all fossil fuel use to save the planet from warming. ( note -there is a thread on this topic already in play with tons of posts. Every aspect had been hashed and rehashed. The "science is cancelled" thread I think. There is also a "fossil fuels are not the enemy" thread. With a cast of all the usual players.)
So leave the warming debate for those threads. However the predictive threat of a future disaster is a main motivation being used by the EV champions.

The second game changer is simply that there is a political opportunity in play for two years in my country. So a strike while the iron is hot sort of mentality. Try to get as much done right now and hope it sticks. Make the cost of oil as high as possible. Make the opportunity to get the oil out of the ground restricted as much as possible. Kill off business tax incentives from fossil fuels while increasing the tax breaks and programs for EV's, solar and wind. Some done by executive orders only. Some on a federal level and others on the state level. My take is this possibly fleeting political advantage is behind some of the rapid push going on.
The hope may be that if you can cripple fossil fuels enough and also get the EV ball rolling enough, then there may be enough momentum to keep the ball rolling. That the problems of EV's are far from solved is brushed aside even tho they are very real, is troubling.

We hear a lot of predictions about how charging time will drop and batteries will become both lighter and cheaper. Thing is some companies have been working on these things for decades. They have made some progress to be sure, but no where near enough to my way of thinking. Add on top of this an electric grid that has problems with the current loads. The most likely outcome is not enough electric power to go around to meet the needs. So we will have to give up some use of electricity we take for granted and will likely have to pay more.

Supply and demand will raise the cost of electricity on it's own. Then there will be surcharges to pay for the ongoing grid buildup. A buildup which will very likely lag behind increasing demand for many decades. We all know who winds up paying for all these things. I see a "do without" future in the EV era. Do you charge your EV or run the heat a bit higher. In the summer we may as well get use to less AC.
Will there be priority customers? Will hospitals always get power? That I can see and understand. Will there be other customers who will get power before I do? Can there be a ration system in place? Might I have no power at all a few times a week?

My idea many years ago was there would be a more natural transition away from Oil as the cost went higher. That the switch to EV's would be a gradual thing as the problems were worked out. Such seems to not be the case.

 

[EmCel]

Damn... long ass story.

 

[DCShelby]

Talk to a climatologist and they will tell you..there is so much carbon in the air now that even if we lowered to to zero today…..zero new emissions…….it’s still going to get hotter and hotter….what would cool it down? A large meteor strike that of course would kill millions, perhaps a string of volcanic eruptions, or perhaps nuclear bombs….all of which would send particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect the energy back……

 

[Cobra Jet]

I don't see a financial mistake here, I see the mistake as being buying a Mock-E wannabe Mustang...

there I said it...



and it's been in National News this week that TX and CA are telling their residents to back off or not use their HOME A/C, because it's causing such a draw on their electrical grids... LMFAO - go full EV, it's great said those who have no conception of the bigger picture...

 

[shogun32]

LMFAO - go full EV, it's great said those who have no conception of the bigger picture...

well it'll give the NatGas power plants something to do during the night when all that massive solar and wind generating capacity is at zero.

 

[Bikeman315]

and it's been in National News this week that TX and CA are telling their residents to back off or not use their HOME A/C, because it's causing such a draw on their electrical grids... LMFAO - go full EV, it's great said those who have no conception of the bigger picture...

And what are their current systems being run on? The bigger picture isn't electric cars. Over the next five to ten years their overall impact will be minimal.

The big issue is infrastructure and politics. Look what happened to Texas this winter. The1r politically controlled systems are so out of date that they cannot handle even the slightest bit of change in the weather. This heat wave is going to literally kill a lot of people because of this. California is another cluster. Antiquated systems that cannot handle todays loads without craping out.

So who here is going to raise their hand and agree that the federal government along with the states need to address our power grids. That's going to cost money, big money. As in tax money. I'm going to guess we are all good with this.

By the way just remember when the power goes out the gas pumps go out. Like I said gas vs. electric is not the big picture.

 

[Cobra Jet]

And what are their current systems being run on? The bigger picture isn't electric cars. Over the next five to ten years their overall impact will be minimal.

The big issue is infrastructure and politics. Look what happened to Texas this winter. The1r politically controlled systems are so out of date that they cannot handle even the slightest bit of change in the weather. This heat wave is going to literally kill a lot of people because of this. California is another cluster. Antiquated systems that cannot handle todays loads without craping out.

So who here is going to raise their hand and agree that the federal government along with the states need to address our power grids. That's going to cost money, big money. As in tax money. I'm going to guess we are all good with this.

By the way just remember when the power goes out the gas pumps go out. Like I said gas vs. electric is not the big picture.

That's what I'm saying - the bigger picture isn't even in consideration - everyone is jumping on the EV bandwagon when the fact of the matter is - some of the grids can't support common use such as home A/C (or inset XYZ use or emergencies here) but now we're advertising and signing legislations for the ICE to EV push and no new ICE car sales after 2035??

You're right in everything you said above and yes there will have to be a massive effort to upgrade the infrastructure country wide to support mass EV use.

Yes, when electrify fails the gas pumps may not work, but charging stations won't either... unless folks have stored gasoline for their gas powered back up generators, which now we come full circle.

 

[sk47]

Yes, when electrify fails the gas pumps may not work, but charging stations won't either... unless folks have stored gasoline for their gas powered back up generators, which now we come full circle.

Hello; Nailed it.

 

[Unclenard]

Yes, when electrify fails the gas pumps may not work, but charging stations won't either... unless folks have stored gasoline for their gas powered back up generators, which now we come full circle.

But my solar panels on my house, which reduce the load on the grid, are still working to charge the backup battery pack in my garage, so I can still charge my car. Oh and while the grid is down I still have power at my house too.

 

[Strokerswild]

Everytime we thought we had equipment idiot proof, we found a better idiot.

There is no such thing as "idiot proof", the best you can hope for is "fool resistant".

 

[sk47]

But my solar panels on my house, which reduce the load on the grid, are still working to charge the backup battery pack in my garage, so I can still charge my car. Oh and while the grid is down I still have power at my house too.

Hello; The fantasy gets better and better. So we all are going to have a set of solar panels for when the grid is down and/or overloaded. Even those in apartment buildings. Even those millions of people who cannot come up with $500 to cover an emergency. A battery backup as well. It is not that some of the issues cannot be overcome, they can by those with the funds. Those with commutes just the correct length. Those with little need to make long trips.
Thing is I have been in a position where I was just getting by. Everything my first wife and I owned could fit into a 1957 Pontiac. So far all the EV solutions wind up costing a lot of money when you drill down to the gritty parts. I
I get the dream is to fit it into the notion some have about saving the planet. That saving the planet will be worth it all in their minds. At some point it would be great to have a little less push for the dream and some reality check.

Oh, by the way today most people work at day and are home charging their cars at night ( those with a charger available anyway)

 

[Unclenard]

Hello; The fantasy gets better and better. So we all are going to have a set of solar panels for when the grid is down and/or overloaded. Even those in apartment buildings. Even those millions of people who cannot come up with $500 to cover an emergency. A battery backup as well. It is not that some of the issues cannot be overcome, they can by those with the funds. Those with commutes just the correct length. Those with little need to make long trips.
Thing is I have been in a position where I was just getting by. Everything my first wife and I owned could fit into a 1957 Pontiac. So far all the EV solutions wind up costing a lot of money when you drill down to the gritty parts. I
I get the dream is to fit it into the notion some have about saving the planet. That saving the planet will be worth it all in their minds. At some point it would be great to have a little less push for the dream and some reality check.

Oh, by the way today most people work at day and are home charging their cars at night ( those with a charger available anyway)

Not sure where I said we ALL are going to have solar panels. Even if 10% of the homes in power station area where to buy solar, that is good deal less the power company has to provide.
I'm not a save the planet freak or on the other extreme that believes nothing should change. But believe we can do better.
Did people in the beginning of the 1900's complain that with a gas car you had to go to a station to fill it up instead of just feeding your horse at home. And that cars would put vets and farriers out of work.
In my area grocery stores and shopping centers are adding charging stations. What better time to charge than while you are somewhere doing something you need to do anyways. It will be easier to put charging stations in places than digging big holes to put gas tanks in the ground. Will it happen quick, no. The same with solar panels. It will take some time but as they get added, it takes load off of the grid. Will solar be the only answer, no. Is it quicker and easier to get homes and businesses on solar than build a new power plant somewhere?
By no means is this aimed at you sk47. It is crazy to me how some people are so hard one way or another on issues and ideas. People need to stop being so hard nosed and hard headed about things and really listen, be open to other ideas and have true discussions about things. Get all the real facts and do research, and please, please do NOT get your facts from Facebook.
Anyways, that is my two cents after reading all the comments in this thread.

Oh and by the way, OP still hasn't come back to this thread.

 

[bobsled]

Talk to a climatologist and they will tell you..there is so much carbon in the air now that even if we lowered to to zero today…..zero new emissions…….it’s still going to get hotter and hotter….what would cool it down? A large meteor strike that of course would kill millions, perhaps a string of volcanic eruptions, or perhaps nuclear bombs….all of which would send particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect the energy back……

The climatologists drive me crazy. Their models are terrible due to heteroskedasticity, so they force through a solution that results in ridiculous hockey stick projections. The problem is that the oceans are the largest absorber of CO2. When the water temperature rises, it releases/absorbs less CO2. So naturally, if the world is warmer, there will be more CO2 in the air due to thermodynamics. Then I point out that global warming wasn't an issue before the widespread use of the catalytic converter (haha). Rant over.

 

[EmCel]

I think OP is active on the Mach-E forum now. I mean it would of been nice to hear his thoughts on the car a week later.

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