I like COVID 19

[Gregs24]

Seems pretty clear by now that the Sweden approach did not blow up as many predicted. Good graph in this piece:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-...ockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

I think it is a fraction too early to be sure of that but looking positive.

Some of the cowboys on here will not want to believe it !

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[Caballus]

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/bern-r...e-within-reach--say-swiss-scientists/45704796

 

[Caballus]

https://www.ft.com/content/0be0cb59-96e9-4b70-9fd9-79bab5f77962

 

[Gregs24]

People in the UK will never understand guns here - it's just part of the culture. I own several, mostly hunting shotguns and rifle, plus a handgun for target shooting.

I do understand the US fascination with guns is very different from the UK - I don't understand some of the frankly worrying posts about needing guns to protest against or resist government from others on here. That is a different ball game altogether.

 

[Gregs24]

NYS antibody results - suggests 14% infection rate state-wide, 22% in NYC

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/loc...plan-to-fight-nursing-home-outbreaks/2386556/

It also confirms the likely mortality rate of 0.5% (China and others were suggesting 0.6%) , around 10x flu's mortality rate. This is really important as I pointed out many pages back that if you know the true mortality rate you get a much better idea of the number of infected people and how close you are to the herd immunity level of 60%. The other thing is that 60% is based on an R0 of 2.5. When you have 22% already immune then the R0 will already be decreasing because of reducing numbers of available hosts, ie you only have 8 out of 10 hosts available compared to 10 out of 10 which slows spread. When you get to 60% the R0 is 1, meaning huge outbreaks are no longer possible.

It doesn't mean the disease has gone away, but R factor manipulating controls don't have to be as severe. Lockdown has been credited with reducing the R0 to 0.6 from 2.5. If you are only needing to reduce it from 2 then the restrictions don't need to be as severe and can be more targeted as well.

It is obviously complicated by how long lasting and strong that immunity is, if it is short those immune people return to the available host pool as their immunity fades, which then makes things worse again.

 

[Hack]

I do understand the US fascination with guns is very different from the UK - I don't understand some of the frankly worrying posts about needing guns to protest against or resist government from others on here. That is a different ball game altogether.

I get it. Most people like you if they were in Germany before Hitler came to power would just lay down and die or let their neighbors die. Or name your tyrant. There have been quite a few, right?

You think it will never happen again. People are smarter or better now (other than those in Cuba and Venezuela - they don't count). Or heck - China is a better example. No one wants to be a socialist ruler of a nation anymore and kill their opponents. When the people working for Bernie Sanders' campaign talked about throwing all Republicans into gulags they were just joking around. It would never really happen, not in a million years.

Yep, different ball game.

 

[Docscurlock]

Can you explain why you need a gun if you are not going to shoot anybody?

​

He answered your question very plainly, it is to protect ourselves from an over reaching government. Very simple to understand, you can thank your country for instilling this so deeply in the psyche of Americans. Those semi automatic carbines are so common around here that almost everyone has one, or a few. It's kinda like collecting mustangs, why only have one?
​

Your comment is also technically inciting armed resistance to the rule of law in the US which I believe may get you in trouble one day.

Not really, we have this thing called the First Amendment (Right to free speech in a nutshell) he can say what he wants. The First Amendment is followed very closely by the Second Amendment to our Constitution (Right to Keep and Bear Arms) so you see, those patriots in my picture were only exercising their rights to Assemble, Speak and Bear Arms. And guess what, nobody was shot or hurt. (Or had his legs kicked out from under him, slammed to the ground and cuffed)

 

[Docscurlock]

So those protesters carrying guns were duck shooting were they ? No, they were using a gun as a threat and for bravado. There is never a reason for a protester to carry a gun.

You must live in a pretty crime ridden place, In 56 years I have never needed a gun for personal protection or to prevent a crime.

Your definition of freedom seems a very selfish one - freedom for you at the expense of others as per previous post. Freedom is a collective thing.

I don't think anybody in any country is planning on locking people up forever - that would be a bit radical to say the least.

There is no reason to take a car away to save lives, just drive it responsibly and the risk is very small. Drive it like a tool and the risk is higher. This is why we have laws so that those who are incapable of living by the democratically established rules in your country are denied their freedom. You can't just do your own thing without restraint or responsibility without consideration for others. A completely unconstrained world is anarchy. The reason you need a gun is people like you doing what they want at your expense - look in the mirror !

Are you really free though?

 

[Docscurlock]

I get it. Most people like you if they were in Germany before Hitler came to power would just lay down and die or let their neighbors die. Or name your tyrant. There have been quite a few, right?

You think it will never happen again. People are smarter or better now (other than those in Cuba and Venezuela - they don't count). Or heck - China is a better example. No one wants to be a socialist ruler of a nation anymore and kill their opponents. When the people working for Bernie Sanders' campaign talked about throwing all Republicans into gulags they were just joking around. It would never really happen, not in a million years.

Yep, different ball game.

Damn straight

 

[Burkey]

Are you really free though?

Is anybody?

 

[Gregs24]

Are you really free though?

Yep

Free to live in a law abiding democratic country unlike some - very lucky

 

[Gregs24]

I get it. Most people like you if they were in Germany before Hitler came to power would just lay down and die or let their neighbors die.
.

How pompous and self opinionated you are. I am not living in a country that is occupied or threatened by a dictator and what you suggest is deeply insulting to my family members who died in both wars fighting to enable me to live in a free world. I value their contribution, not your silly willy waving psuedo freedom fighting rubbish

 

[Gregs24]

He answered your question very plainly, it is to protect ourselves from an over reaching government.
​

Once again. Your democratically elected government applying legal controls to safeguard the majority. If you intend using arms to prevent your government from it's democratically elected duty, it is you that is the danger. It is your actions that threaten the freedom and rights of the majority. You are not defending anything, you are threatening it. Respect your democratically elected government.

 

[Gregs24]

The death rate figures in NY are interesting statistically. The deaths per 1m population is around 1000 (highest in the world currently, so probably the greatest exposure of the population anywhere in the world) and it seems that equates to around 20% population exposure (earlier post), suggesting in broad terms that around 3000 deaths per 1m people will equate to around 60% exposure. If that simple maths holds true for the US as a whole it means around 1m deaths before the 60% level is reached. The next highest is Spain with around 500 deaths per million suggesting around 10% exposure and ultimately 120k deaths. Sweden comes out at 30k deaths using similar maths. This all assumes no vaccine used and is a very simplistic interpretation of the data.

Most US states are nowhere near NY so far and much earlier in the curve, hence at much higher risk currently to explosive spread as most of the population is naïve still.

 

[Gregs24]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177

You just know some moron is going to follow the advice of Trump and drink some disinfectant. I was going to say 'what was he thinking saying something like that at a press conference?' but maybe I have answered my own question !



Pointing to his head, Mr Trump went on: "I'm not a doctor. But I'm, like, a person that has a good you-know-what." I can think of a few things that 'you-know-what' could be.

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