I like COVID 19

[Gregs24]

The experts are wrong.

Oxymoron - or maybe just moron

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[Caballus]

Experts are wrong.

Edit: Why would one insist on flooding the forum with false information? I (the person whom you will not directly address) did not determine 70%. Experts (which you like to cite) determined that percentage, per the references provided.

The idea that he virus will fizzle is absolutely absurd. There is no fizzling with a virus with a 2.5% fatality rate and no vaccine or treatment. Not to mention the infirmity rate--US and UK alike are relying on field hospitals. How long is that sustainable?

What isn't new is minimizing the effect while a treatment and/or vaccination can be developed. If herd immunity is not a strategy (a a plan of action or policy designed to achieve a major or overall aim), then it is irrelevant.

What's the point of herd immunity? How long would herd immunity take without a vaccine? What % of the population would be lost? When was the last time society developed herd immunity absent a vaccine?

Those are meaningful questions.

 

[Caballus]

Oxymoron - or maybe just moron

It's what you are suggesting by discounting the expert analysis that was presented to you regarding herd immunity. So, I don't disagree at all with the moron implication...

 

[Gregs24]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext

For those interested in the R0 estimation for COVID19 please see link. Remember herd immunity required for suppression of transmission is 1-1/R0

Anybody wanting to improve their knowledge of herd immunity should have a look here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

 

[Hack]

This isn't most viruses, it is worse than a lot. I said we don't know if infection offers immunity, there have been some cases reported of reinfection. Why do I have to worry about Influenza next year if I had it this year? Until we know if infection gives you immunity from reinfection all this talk about herd immunity is worthless. Until we have an effective vaccine all this talk about herd immunity is worthless.

I'm no expert and I'm certainly not a doctor - but my understanding is that we don't catch the same flu every year. Same with the common cold. They change every year and there are multiple strains out there and people are immune to those they've had in the past.

And you don't have to worry about the flu. Either you get it or you don't and either you live through it or you don't. That has always been the attitude in the past.

The new attitude is OMG someone might die, so lets shut everything down.

Progress? If it turns out that there is immunity and a vaccine, then maybe this shutting everything down is a good idea. If there is no herd immunity and vaccines are only temporary solutions, the better solution is that the strong survive and do their thing and those who are vulnerable either take measures to protect themselves or they die (in other words, we start dealing with it in exactly the same as every other disease in the past).

 

[Caballus]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext

For those interested in the R0 estimation for COVID19 please see link. Remember herd immunity required for suppression of transmission is 1-1/R0

Anybody wanting to improve their knowledge of herd immunity should have a look here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

Generic wikipedia articles on herd immunity are unhelpful. Application of the theory through a scientific process to achieve academically defensible conclusions is what matters.

The Lancet Article discusses reproduction estimates using Wuhan as a case study, but does not in context of herd immunity. Note the three paragraph discussion on limitations.

The articles provided earlier were focused directly on herd immunity as it relates to COVID-19. Specifically what from those articles was incorrect?

 

[Caballus]

I'm no expert and I'm certainly not a doctor - but my understanding is that we don't catch the same flu every year. Same with the common cold. They change every year and there are multiple strains out there and people are immune to those they've had in the past.

And you don't have to worry about the flu. Either you get it or you don't and either you live through it or you don't. That has always been the attitude in the past.

The new attitude is OMG someone might die, so lets shut everything down.

Progress? If it turns out that there is immunity and a vaccine, then maybe this shutting everything down is a good idea. If there is no herd immunity and vaccines are only temporary solutions, the better solution is that the strong survive and do their thing and those who are vulnerable either take measures to protect themselves or they die (in other words, we start dealing with it in exactly the same as every other disease in the past).

I think there are two key points. 1) Obviously the ultimate objective is to limit death, but the bigger immediate challenge is that COVID is overwhelming hospitals. The average person who catches a cold or the flu is not hospitalized. The extreme ICU cases (like PM Boris Johnson) are the ones getting most of the attention, but as my organization's surgeon (an infectious disease expert whose office is three doors down from mine) stresses, the average patient simply needs oxygen. That patient consumes resources too; 2) until there is a vaccine, the best course of action is to slow the spread as much as possible. The disease is still not understood, so medical professionals and scientists need time to get in front of it.

In short, the best treatment for the economy is to find a treatment (or prevention) for the disease.

 

[Docscurlock]

On the contrary natural infection obviously confers immunity - you wouldn't get better if it didn't. There are no cases of re-infection confirmed and any suspected case is likely down to extended viral excretion or inaccurate testing. Any odd anecdotal cases are not a majority.

Good Lord, in no way does recovery mean immunity in anything. You can develop antibodies to fight an infection but you are not immune. I would like to hear from your "expert" showing no cases of reinfection

Why you have a problem with 'herd immunity' I don't know. That is exactly the process for all diseases - how do you think measles is controlled - by herd immunity. There are two ways of deriving immunity, natural infection or vaccination. Please think for a moment how vaccination works - you introduce the viral antigen to the animal to challenge the immune system in exactly the same way as the natural infection, the crucial difference being that the vaccine is either a live inactivated or dead strain of the virus so that it will not cause disease. The animals immune system doesn't know that and uses the same process to create immunity. If natural infection doesn't produce immunity then neither will a vaccine.

Nothing wrong with herd immunity If you are discussing cows or pigs. Vaccines provide a mechanism to create antibodies to a particular infection, not immunity. If your immune system has seen a disease before, it can react faster to fight the disease before it has a chance to cause symptoms. It is a lot different than immunity.

Mathematically the required percentage to provide herd immunity is an exact relationship to the R0 value so an R0 of 2.5 means 60%, if the R0 is slightly higher it is 70%. Currently the R0 for COVID19 is thought to be 2.5 but it will change.

As regards the longevity of immunity (to natural or vaccinal challenge) it depends on the nature of the immunity and what antibodies are involved, as well as how mutable the virus is. For coronaviruses in general immunity for months / years is normal.

WTF are you talking about? How's that herd immunity thing working for Boris Johnson?

 

[Docscurlock]

Spot on. As explained if the immune system doesn't generate antibodies and an immune reaction you will die. Vaccination simply challenges the immune system in a safe way rather than you having to fight the actual disease. First discovered by Edward Jenner who stumbled upon that an infection with cow pox provided cross immunity against small pox

Dr. Gregs24 was apparently at the pub the day they discussed immune systems, vaccinations and immunity in medical school. Please don't take his advice, I would miss you too much.

 

[Docscurlock]

Worse ? define worse

You need to worry about influenza about every 3 years because it rapidly mutates and the immunity to the virus this year will not help you with the mutated virus after about 3 years. There is a degree of cross immunity for a couple of years as the mutations are subtle. Changes to the surface antigens

Worse because it has a higher mortality rate in humans than influenza and because we are naïve to it. Where in the world do you keep coming up with this immunity thing? Immunity is given to you if you rat on your buddies in court, you aren't immune to diseases. We also haven't seen the CV19 virus mutate next, maybe that will be the sequel to this disaster.

 

[Docscurlock]

I'm no expert and I'm certainly not a doctor - but my understanding is that we don't catch the same flu every year. Same with the common cold. They change every year and there are multiple strains out there and people are immune to those they've had in the past.

Because our body develops antibodies either through natural infection or immunization, you may be exposed to the old flu strain but your body recognizes it and kills it before it kills you. Different strains get through the cracks of your immune system but there are still antibodies to influenza which start working once they figure it out. Or you die.

And you don't have to worry about the flu. Either you get it or you don't and either you live through it or you don't. That has always been the attitude in the past.

​

Tell that to the 20000 American families who lost someone this year......
​

[QUOTE="Hack, post: 2856693, member: 12069"
The new attitude is OMG someone might die, so lets shut everything down.

Progress? If it turns out that there is immunity and a vaccine, then maybe this shutting everything down is a good idea. If there is no herd immunity and vaccines are only temporary solutions, the better solution is that the strong survive and do their thing and those who are vulnerable either take measures to protect themselves or they die (in other words, we start dealing with it in exactly the same as every other disease in the past).[/QUOTE]

The new attitude is because it has a higher mortality rate than influenza and the entire population of our country is naive to it all at once. If we don't stop the spread more people will die simply because we can't provide medical care for them. Thats the problem in NY, LA and WASH state, not that it's such a terrible disease (although it is) but that everyone is naive to it, just like the flu pandemic of 1918.

 

[Hack]

I think there are two key points. 1) Obviously the ultimate objective is to limit death, but the bigger immediate challenge is that COVID is overwhelming hospitals. The average person who catches a cold or the flu is not hospitalized. The extreme ICU cases (like PM Boris Johnson) are the ones getting most of the attention, but as my organization's surgeon (an infectious disease expert whose office is three doors down from mine) stresses, the average patient simply needs oxygen. That patient consumes resources too; 2) until there is a vaccine, the best course of action is to slow the spread as much as possible. The disease is still not understood, so medical professionals and scientists need time to get in front of it.

In short, the best treatment for the economy is to find a treatment (or prevention) for the disease.

Have some hospitals been overwhelmed? I've only heard people saying they will be, not that any actually have.

I think the average patient doesn't even know they have this thing. They just carry and transmit it. Which is a reason to isolate, but that is not sustainable over the long term. Most of the people who are really in danger are retirement age and they probably should isolate. I hope that soon we can move to a strategy where people have personal responsibility for themselves rather than the government forcing everyone out of their jobs and then printing tons of money. I personally would like to be able to just accept the fact that I might catch some disease and it might kill me and then decide for myself how I will behave.

Because our body develops antibodies either through natural infection or immunization, you may be exposed to the old flu strain but your body recognizes it and kills it before it kills you. Different strains get through the cracks of your immune system but there are still antibodies to influenza which start working once they figure it out. Or you die.

Tell that to the 20000 American families who lost someone this year......​

The new attitude is because it has a higher mortality rate than influenza and the entire population of our country is naive to it all at once. If we don't stop the spread more people will die simply because we can't provide medical care for them. Thats the problem in NY, LA and WASH state, not that it's such a terrible disease (although it is) but that everyone is naive to it, just like the flu pandemic of 1918.

Yes it sucks when people die, but ALL of us will die. It's just a fact of life. We live, then we die. I'm not sure we really know the mortality rate yet. We don't know the denominator. We are underestimating the number of people who have the disease by a large amount is what I think.

 

[Gregs24]

Good Lord, in no way does recovery mean immunity in anything. You can develop antibodies to fight an infection but you are not immune. I would like to hear from your "expert" showing no cases of reinfection


Nothing wrong with herd immunity If you are discussing cows or pigs. Vaccines provide a mechanism to create antibodies to a particular infection, not immunity. If your immune system has seen a disease before, it can react faster to fight the disease before it has a chance to cause symptoms. It is a lot different than immunity.

WTF are you talking about? How's that herd immunity thing working for Boris Johnson?

I have quoted a couple below, but there is loads of information out there on how immune reactions work as well as estimations of the time post recovery immunity may last for COVID19. Humans are just animals by the way. As I pointed out before immunity post infection to coronaviruses of other types lasts months to years but clearly we haven't had COVID19 around for long enough yet to know what the specific duration will be, and inevitably there will be differences between individuals.

You seem very confused about vaccines / immunity. "Vaccines provide a mechanism to create antibodies to a particular infection, not immunity." you say. By definition vaccines are used to create immunity.

Definition: a substance used to stimulate the production of antibodies and provide immunity against one or several diseases, prepared from the causative agent of a disease, its products, or a synthetic substitute, treated to act as an antigen without inducing the disease.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaccine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunity_(medical)


https://www.heart.org/en/news/2020/03/25/covid-19-science-understanding-the-basics-of-herd-immunity

Dr Stephen Gluckman, an infectious diseases physician at Penn Medicine and the medical director of Penn Global Medicine, 'it seems likely that having the disease once results in immunity in most individuals - as is seen with other coronaviruses.'

And what any of the population level epidemiology has to do with a single case (BJ) I don't know ?


You really need to get your facts right before slinging mud around. I don't mind sensible discussion or questions, but responding to my posts with antagonistic, ill founded ranting does not make for a worthwhile experience.

 

[Gregs24]

you aren't immune to diseases.

Yes I am - I was vaccinated against measles and mumps both of which confer lifelong immunity. The R0 for measles is around 12 meaning you need around 90% of the population immune to provide herd immunity and stop spread of the disease. The anti vax lobby have put this at risk in many countries with their quackery, resulting in some measles outbreaks in recent years.

 

[Docscurlock]

Yes I am - I was vaccinated against measles and mumps both of which confer lifelong immunity. The R0 for measles is around 12 meaning you need around 90% of the population immune to provide herd immunity and stop spread of the disease. The anti vax lobby have put this at risk in many countries with their quackery, resulting in some measles outbreaks in recent years.

Vaccines are like a training course for the immune system. They prepare the body to fight disease without exposing it to disease symptoms.

When foreign invaders such as bacteria or viruses enter the body, immune cells called lymphocytes respond by producing antibodies, which are protein molecules. These antibodies fight the invader known as an antigen and protect against further infection. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), a healthy individual can produce millions of antibodies a day, fighting infection so efficiently that people never even know they were exposed to an antigen. (Like influenza or measles)
Unfortunately, the first time the body faces a particular invader, it can take several days to ramp up this antibody response. For really nasty antigens like the measles virus or whooping cough bacteria (or CVF19) a few days is too long. The infection can spread and kill the person before the immune system can fight back.
That's where vaccines come in. According to the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Vaccine Education Center, vaccines are made of dead or weakened antigens. They can't cause an infection, but the immune system still sees them as an enemy and produces antibodies in response. After the threat has passed, many of the antibodies will break down, but immune cells called memory cells remain in the body.

When the body encounters that antigen again, the memory cells produce antibodies fast and strike down the invader before it's too late.

Vaccines also work on a community level. Some people can't be vaccinated, either because they are too young, or because their immune systems are too weak, according to the CDC.

Here is an explanation o your herd immunity. -But if everyone around them is vaccinated, unvaccinated people are protected by something called herd immunity. In other words, they're unlikely to even come in contact with the disease, so they probably won't get sick. When it comes to vaccines, sometimes it can pay to follow the crowd. (When the disease is rampant, this herd immunity is impossible) (This is why the antivaxxers aren't dropping from polio, everyone else has been vaccinated so the chance of coming into contact with polio is slim)

Immunity is a word that is incorrectly used in this situation, your immune system, when vaccinated, can mount a quick, effective immune response killing the disease before you have symptoms.

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