I like COVID 19

[Caballus]

Yes, because the cases figure is totally inaccurate for all countries and totally dependent on how many people have been tested - tests that everybody is fighting over because they can't get enough

If anything, since you argue that the US is a less developed situation, then it stands to reason that the UK has tested a greater percentage of its population. This assumption is reinforced by simple numbers (330mil vs. 68mil). If that is the case, there are even more infected Americans, making the death percentage even lower. It would be unsound to assume that any significant number have died of COVID symptoms and not had cause of death confirmed.

So, again, your argument crumbles. Decentralize now.

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[Gregs24]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world...-us-death-rates-v-china-italy-and-south-korea

Here is a reasonable explanation. Don't forget death rates take about 3 weeks to respond to behaviour changes so even if you lock everybody in their houses the rate will still rise for 3 weeks.

The alternative strategy is to use the one in Turkmenistan where the word 'coronavirus' has been banned and wearing a face mask will result in arrest !

 

[Caballus]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world...-us-death-rates-v-china-italy-and-south-korea

Here is a reasonable explanation. Don't forget death rates take about 3 weeks to respond to behaviour changes so even if you lock everybody in their houses the rate will still rise for 3 weeks.

The alternative strategy is to use the one in Turkmenistan where the word 'coronavirus' has been banned and wearing a face mask will result in arrest !

Try again. That article says nothing about the UK.

 

[Gregs24]

If anything, since you argue that the US is a less developed situation, then it stands to reason that the UK has tested a greater percentage of its population. This assumption is reinforced by simple numbers (330mil vs. 68mil). If that is the case, there are even more infected Americans, making the death percentage even lower. It would be unsound to assume that any significant number have died of COVID symptoms and not had cause of death confirmed.

So, again, your argument crumbles. Decentralize now.

No problem with deaths being measured - although as I posted yesterday cause of death is being interpreted differently in some countries. But testing as a percentage of population varies widely and also the PCR test has a very narrow window - it only detects virus when it is being shed by an individual. Also when the tests are done within the outbreak makes a huge difference. The country with the highest testing rate by miles id South Korea with a test and isolate policy and then repeat testing - the death rate there is much lower than everybody else. However there simply are not enough tests in the world for everybody top do it that way.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is a useful site for up to date info

However, until you have tested ALL the population for antibodies you will never know the true infection rate and death rate - and that test isn't even available.

https://www.livescience.com/death-rate-lower-than-estimates.html

 

[Gregs24]

Try again. That article says nothing about the UK.

If you watch the video (I assume you can outside the UK but maybe not) then the UK is on the graph together with other European countries - try again yourself !

 

[Gregs24]

I hear there are plenty of tests available for purchase from China

Cheap ventilators I hear as well - pretty sure Italy have had some of them

 

[Gregs24]

I hope you don't really mean this....

I don't think they could be much more different !

 

[Caballus]

No problem with deaths being measured - although as I posted yesterday cause of death is being interpreted differently in some countries. But testing as a percentage of population varies widely and also the PCR test has a very narrow window - it only detects virus when it is being shed by an individual. Also when the tests are done within the outbreak makes a huge difference. The country with the highest testing rate by miles id South Korea with a test and isolate policy and then repeat testing - the death rate there is much lower than everybody else. However there simply are not enough tests in the world for everybody top do it that way.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is a useful site for up to date info

However, until you have tested ALL the population for antibodies you will never know the true infection rate and death rate - and that test isn't even available.

https://www.livescience.com/death-rate-lower-than-estimates.html

"some countries" does not get to the point we are discussing. It comes back to available data that you continually try to discount. It is what it is: a greater percentage of infected Brits have died than the percentage of tested Americans. The rest is white noise, particularly since we are talking simply of the tested, confirmed %.

 

[hlfbkd420]

As a person from AZ.... Let me just say that people like the OP are the reason no one gives a shit about this disease around here.. Our numbers are low but about to balloon. Good luck OP.. Get out there and mingle!

I apologize in advance because we are not all naïve and selfish in AZ.

 

[Gregs24]

"some countries" does not get to the point we are discussing. It comes back to available data that you continually try to discount. It is what it is: a greater percentage of infected Brits have died than the percentage of tested Americans. The rest is white noise, particularly since we are talking simply of the tested, confirmed %.

You need to read about the subject a bit more.

You cannot take confirmed cases to mean total cases because it is entirely dependent on testing rates and who , where and when the tests were done. So I'm not arguing with your maths, but the death rate in the UK is not going to be 7.2%. It is 7.2% of confirmed cases AT THE MOMENT because not many cases have been confirmed, BUT that is not a death rate of 7.2% of actual cases for the reasons explained. My son has had it but not tested so he is an exact example of why true positives and tested positives differ. If the US had only done 5000 tests (which I know it hasn't) and all of them had been positive the death rate in the US would be 82% - clearly rubbish.

Once the antibody test is available and we know true population exposure we can then calculate true death rates - not before.

 

[Gregs24]

As a person from AZ.... Let me just say that people like the OP are the reason no one gives a shit about this disease around here.. Our numbers are low but about to balloon. Good luck OP.. Get out there and mingle!

I apologize in advance because we are not all naïve and selfish in AZ.

Good to hear. There are morons in every country.

 

[Gregs24]

"some countries" does not get to the point we are discussing. It comes back to available data that you continually try to discount. It is what it is: a greater percentage of tested positive Brits have died than the percentage of tested positive Americans. .

I have adjusted your post to make it correct (not being rude but hope that helps make it clear)

 

[Caballus]

You need to read about the subject a bit more.

You cannot take confirmed cases to mean total cases because it is entirely dependent on testing rates and who , where and when the tests were done. So I'm not arguing with your maths, but the death rate in the UK is not going to be 7.2%. It is 7.2% of confirmed cases AT THE MOMENT because not many cases have been confirmed, BUT that is not a death rate of 7.2% of actual cases for the reasons explained. My son has had it but not tested so he is an exact example of why true positives and tested positives differ. If the US had only done 5000 tests (which I know it hasn't) and all of them had been positive the death rate in the US would be 82% - clearly rubbish.

Once the antibody test is available and we know true population exposure we can then calculate true death rates - not before.

I need to read about the subject a bit more? Such a British statement.

Take total confirmed cases from each country
Calculate % of those cases that have died
British is higher

Now, consider that the U.K. is further along and that the U.S. has tested fewer cases.
So, increase confirmed U.S. cases based on increased testing.
Deaths will remain steady, because COVID deaths are confirmed at time of death..the dead and nearly dead get tested

So, the percentage of US deaths relative to tested would decrease, making an even larger gap between the decentralized and centralized models.

It's not about reading; it's about math.

 

[Gregs24]

I need to read about the subject a bit more? Such a British statement.

Take total confirmed cases from each country
Calculate % of those cases that have died
British is higher

Now, consider that the U.S. is further along, because we have tested fewer cases.
So, increase confirmed U.S. cases based on increased testing.
Deaths will remain steady, because COVID deaths are confirmed at time of death..the dead and nearly dead get tested

So, the percentage of US deaths relative to tested would decrease, making an even larger gap between the decentralized and centralized models.

It's not about reading; it's about math.

I'm not arguing with the maths (UK spelling) but trying to explain why the current figures DO NOT give an accurate figure for death rate from the disease. You have to add in all the asymptomatic cases and mild cases to get the true infection rate which we currently can't test for.

 

[Caballus]

I'm not arguing with the maths (UK spelling) but trying to explain why the current figures DO NOT give an accurate figure for death rate from the disease. You have to add in all the asymptomatic cases and mild cases to get the true infection rate which we currently can't test for.

Your argument further proves my point. You are arguing that the numbers are inaccurate because of under-testing. The U.S. is more under-tested than the UK. Therefore, with more confirmed positives, the percentage of deaths will increase for the UK and decrease for the U.S. Simple.

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