S550 may be eliminated sooner rather then later...

[Gregs24]

Are you saying 8 years is the avg age a new owner keeps the car or the avg age of all cars?

Average age of all cars - see post above for figures from Europe.

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[Gregs24]

We are all supposed to take the bus except for EV paid for by the bus riders LOL.

Hard to understand that sentence but why are you 'supposed to take the bus'?

Too often dramatic claims of returning to the stone age are used to object to any form of change. The luddites did it, but we moved on without them - fortunately

 

[theruleslawyer]

Average car age is not the same as average car life.

Many of the really old cars do low mileage so contribute little to anything. I can assure you that there is nothing 'regressive' going on in Europe. Ironically the average age of vehicles in the US is nearly 14 years - so actually we are more progressive embracing progress.

Im aware age and life are different, but im not the one who used average age to justify early ICE retirement.

Regressive tax policy is tax which disproportionately affects the poor. Sales taxes like VAT would be considered a regressive tax. Fuel tax, which is the likely lever to reduce ICE usage, is considered a regressive tax. Anything used to get older used cars off the road will almost certainly a regressive tax policy.

The eu has more will to pass those sorts of tax policies to further green policy. Its much more left than the us but probably more importantly for transportation, it has a much better public transit system. That means people who are displaced from owning cars actually have a reasonable alternative. That is not the case in the us. In the us a regressive tax policy to get ice cars off the road would almost certainly leave many poor without transportation.

 

[Gregs24]

Haha it's a joke. Did we really move on. China has 45,000 km high speed rail building another 15,000 while I still take the comedic joke Acela Experess LOL.

At least they should just use wooden retro rail cars so it's fun haha.

I was looking at investing in a battery recycling co until due diligence exposed govt funds for green face. Batteries sent to Dominican Republic (no OHSA or environmental enforcement). Hundreds of thousands of people in a huge toxic recycling area are contaminated with varios chemicals and very sick.

Why don't we recycle them here in USA! A 10 M Sq Ft facility in California seems like a great place to start since that's the highest battery concentration. No need to transport them on diesel trucks or vessels very far. I will invest!

Even a cursory search shows that you do - with more capacity being built, such as at the old Eastman Kodak site.

 

[Gregs24]

Im aware age and life are different, but im not the one who used average age to justify early ICE retirement.

Regressive tax policy is tax which disproportionately affects the poor. Sales taxes like VAT would be considered a regressive tax. Fuel tax, which is the likely lever to reduce ICE usage, is considered a regressive tax. Anything used to get older used cars off the road will almost certainly a regressive tax policy.

The eu has more will to pass those sorts of tax policies to further green policy. Its much more left than the us but probably more importantly for transportation, it has a much better public transit system. That means people who are displaced from owning cars actually have a reasonable alternative. That is not the case in the us. In the us a regressive tax policy to get ice cars off the road would almost certainly leave many poor without transportation.

You have obviously never visited London where taking a car in to the city is pointless. Public transport is good and roads are bunged up with traffic. All people (rich or poor) use public transport in London. The displacement from cars has already happened, nothing to do with EV's.

 

[theruleslawyer]

You have obviously never visited London where taking a car in to the city is pointless. Public transport is good and roads are bunged up with traffic. All people (rich or poor) use public transport in London. The displacement from cars has already happened, nothing to do with EV's.

I have, but first Brexit, and London isn’t representative of all the UK let alone the EU.

 

[IronG]

Indeed - but my opinion is aligned with experts in climatology, not sure what your opinion is aligned with ?

As regards meteor strikes and solar flares - again no data to back up 'your opinion' - maybe you can provide some. There is a fundamental difference between something that is actually happening and something that may happen.

I'm not 'green' - I drive a Mustang V8

Pretty sure a quick google search will provide you the expert data on the chances for the items I cited. Not so easy to find something definitive on climate change other than data on the earth warming. Pretty sure the earth has warmed and cooled many times already. I can't find any that were globally catastrophic. I do agree that climate change can have impacts on specific areas. Lots of historical and current data on that.

All of this banter is really mute though correct? Since the majority of the governments (current ones anyway) have decreed to go green. I'm pretty sure we will never truly know what would have happened. With that said, climate change will continue with or without us pouring Co2 into the air.

Seems you will be green soon and your Mustang outlawed in a few years. Sorry to hear that.

 

[IronG]

Average car age is not the same as average car life.

Many of the really old cars do low mileage so contribute little to anything. I can assure you that there is nothing 'regressive' going on in Europe. Ironically the average age of vehicles in the US is nearly 14 years - so actually we are more progressive embracing progress.

So average age is 11.5 not 8? That sounds more realistic. Is this data from car registrations, loans, purchases or some other source?

Looks to be about the same in the US. • Average age of vehicles in U.S. 2021 | Statista

The pandemic/chip shortage seems to be extending car use a bit. The data is limited it seems to car loans and car purchases. I suspect that the actual usage of the majority of cars is longer...probably around 15 years. I have not been able to find any data to support that though.

 

[Gregs24]

I have, but first Brexit, and London isn’t representative of all the UK let alone the EU.

Not sure what Brexit has to do with anything, plus London is very representative of major cities in the UK and EU (where most people live)

 

[1958cyclist]

They will disappear quicker than you think considering the average car age is just over 8 years. So by 2040 in Europe there will be very few ICE cars left. Once the numbers drop then the infrastructure needed to support them will quickly vanish too.

I agree they probably are at their best now, so indeed make the most of them.

I would just remind that things almost never happen as quickly as anticipated...this rule applies to just about every change...and the more significant...the longer the transition.

 

[Fly2High]

What I have found very interesting is that even if we convert to all electric, the current levels of CO2 we have now will be the same in 2040. They indicate that the number of cars that will be on the roads will spur on this increase. The only real way to reduce CO2 is to reduce the population.

Add to the fact all those people who have to have a lease or new car every 3 yrs and they will be polluting more than they do now since the bulk of CO2 emissions for EV is during manufacturing. I think somewhere in the 3-4 yr life of the car, maybe a bit more, is where an EV will reduce total lifetime emissions. What happens if the average EV car, for some reason - say the battery, only lasts 10 yrs. They may not be the saving grace we hope for them to be. Add in the car demand for emerging markets and let's just tell it like it is - we are all dead. Might as well enjoy yourself while you can.

 

[Gregs24]

What I have found very interesting is that even if we convert to all electric, the current levels of CO2 we have now will be the same in 2040. They indicate that the number of cars that will be on the roads will spur on this increase. The only real way to reduce CO2 is to reduce the population.

Add to the fact all those people who have to have a lease or new car every 3 yrs and they will be polluting more than they do now since the bulk of CO2 emissions for EV is during manufacturing. I think somewhere in the 3-4 yr life of the car, maybe a bit more, is where an EV will reduce total lifetime emissions. What happens if the average EV car, for some reason - say the battery, only lasts 10 yrs. They may not be the saving grace we hope for them to be. Add in the car demand for emerging markets and let's just tell it like it is - we are all dead. Might as well enjoy yourself while you can.

CO2 levels are dependent on many things including cars. If you only change cars to low CO2 products, then that will clearly not be enough. It requires a complete strategy to cover all types of energy consumption.

Reducing the population is not needed to reduce CO2, just reduction in the use of fossil fuels. We can all continue to live in warm / cool houses, have continued mobility and quality of life, but we have to invest in our future - financially and socially - as we always have.

EV batteries are lasting well beyond 10 years, we have had EV's for that long here and even with the poor installations they had back then they are still managing 80% capacity at 10 years (100k miles) - they last the life of the car, and often beyond in another use such as home battery packs. Tesla are managing much better than that.

What happens to EV batteries after they can't be used in cars? | Autocar

We most certainly are not all dead.

 

[Gregs24]

I would just remind that things almost never happen as quickly as anticipated...this rule applies to just about every change...and the more significant...the longer the transition.

Just remember by 2040 in Europe there will have been no ICE cars sold for 10 years - probably a lot more for some marques, where they will stop production by 2024 /2026. The youngest ICE Jaguar in Europe will be 16 years old by 2040!

It will be interesting to see how fast ICE cars disappear from the roads in Norway, which is the most advanced in terms of transition. At then end of 2021 Norway had 22% of all vehicles on the road as plug in's, it took just 1 year to go from 15% to 22%. It was funny that some posted on here that it was completely impossible for this to happen a year ago - seems they were very wrong! When you consider that over 91% of all new car registrations there now are plug in's, you can see this is going to accelerate. One thing is for sure - if you own a petrol station in Norway you need to diversify your product ASAP!

I know Norway is not the US, or UK for that matter, but what is happening there cannot just be ignored and will give clues as to what will happen elsewhere.

 

[shogun32]

I'd be willing to bet the value of ICE vehicles will increase and prices will even go higher for both new and used.

in constant dollar terms everything depreciates with rare exception. ICE will be taxed and shamed into oblivion in the west and only the desperate and sufficiently motivated and rich will hang onto them. But SE asia and S America and other poor countries will discover how useful these ICE conveyances are and affordable to operate.

 

[shogun32]

hey may not be the saving grace we hope for them to be.

any claims as to "saving grace" were totally fraudulent.
Behind every unit of GDP is a unit of Energy. You can try to screw around with how you generate the Energy but it must exist.

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