Why are E85 prices tracking 93 octane prices

[Performance nut]

I get why fuel prices are going up, I don't wish to discuss that here. What I'm trying to understand is if E85 is 15% oil based, 85% of that should be a fixed cost right? I get that oil costs have an effect on everything but it shouldn't be linear? Meaning if the cost difference between E85 and 93 octane today should not equal the cost next week when 93 octane is $0.50 more a gallon. The cost difference should be greater as the cost of 93 octane goes up.

My logic (not based on factual numbers, just getting my idea out there)
Assumptions

• Ethanol production is fixed at $2/gal. This doesn't include transport, just production
• 93 octane production starts at $3/gal. This doesn't include transport, just production
  • 93 octane production goes up by $0.10 per period of time
• E85 is a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% 93 octane.

93	E85
$ 3.00	$ 2.45
$ 3.10	$ 2.47
$ 3.20	$ 2.48
$ 3.30	$ 2.50
$ 3.40	$ 2.51
$ 3.50	$ 2.53
$ 3.60	$ 2.54
$ 3.70	$ 2.56
$ 3.80	$ 2.57
$ 3.90	$ 2.59
$ 4.00	$ 2.60
$ 4.10	$ 2.62
$ 4.20	$ 2.63
$ 4.30	$ 2.65
$ 4.40	$ 2.66
$ 4.50	$ 2.68
$ 4.60	$ 2.69
$ 4.70	$ 2.71
$ 4.80	$ 2.72
$ 4.90	$ 2.74
$ 5.00	$ 2.75

Edit: Just researched the prices of corn and oil over the last 1 month and 6 months. Their growth rates are different as well which would lend that prices would not track.

• Over the last month, corn prices have increased by 18% and oil by 30.7%.
• Over the last 6 months, corn prices have increased by 51.01% and oil by 74.69%

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[Duece McCracken]

I have no idea, but like 4.30 for 93 and 4.10 ish for E85 iirc last fill. Wtf. Doesnt make much sense.

E85 used to be a little over a dollar a gallon. Idk if I missed something or my memory is timestamping inaccurately.

It's crazy, and I dont like it.

 

[Performance nut]

I have no idea, but like 4.30 for 93 and 4.10 ish for E85 iirc last fill. Wtf. Doesnt make much sense.

E85 used to be a little over a dollar a gallon. Idk if I missed something or my memory is timestamping inaccurately.

It's crazy, and I dont like it.

See for me E85 pricing has been fluctuating more than 93. It was more expensive than 93 octane for awhile, then it was slightly cheaper ($0.10 to $0.25/gal), then it was almost a $1/gal cheaper, and now its around $0.70-0.80/gal cheaper. I'm not really understanding the trend at all. I'll never understand it being more expensive than 93 octane unless there is a severe draught or corn shortage. If anything, will oil prices increasing faster than corn/ethanol commodity prices, the gap should be increasing. Transport costs should be the same... there is something I'm missing because right now E85 should be a heck of a lot cheaper than it is.

 

[Balr14]

Around here, E85 tracks about $1 per gallon less than premium. Is it worth getting an E85 tune?

 

[JohnnyGT]

Around here, E85 tracks about $1 per gallon less than premium. Is it worth getting an E85 tune?

2/3 the milage of E10.

Doesn't matter, E85 tune is still worth it.

 

[Performance nut]

Around here, E85 tracks about $1 per gallon less than premium. Is it worth getting an E85 tune?

Don't get an E85 time for mileage or savings. It is not good, think GT500 gets better fuel efficiency on 93.

For me, I weigh economy vs fun factor on E85. When E85 was more expensive than 93, just couldn't see filling up more often on E85 and pay more while I'm at it.

For those wondering what the breaking point cost wise, as always it depends on mods and driving style. For me, I think I calculated break even is when E85 is close to $1 less per gallon. At that point the lower cost out weighs the bad economy

 

[Biggus Dickus]

E85 was actually going down in price until the invasion and it was 3.89 a gallon tonight.

That said, I think the retailers can play a game where they bump up the price of E85 to a point where consumers will still go for it, weighing the cheaper cost vs. MPG.

Also, since 91 was $6.10 / gallon at the same station tonight, I can see how they can push up E85 and get away with it. So getting back to your original question, the explanation may simply be that they can charge what they want to without much concern for market/production/supply/demand/etc.

But I'm speculating and really don't know a damn thing about this.

 

[ice445]

E85 is unfortunately affected by high regular gas prices. The trucks transporting it to fill stations are still using regular ol' diesel, as are the farm equipment used to harvest the corn.

 

[Fastoldman]

Lots of differing comments but I think ice445 has one of the most logical and simplest answer. With a couple of friends in the Trucking Business ( and living in a State where Ethanol Plants are prolific ) the issue is partly as ice noted as well as a supply issue with trucking. Not enough truckers , not enough trucks, and conventional fuel is a much higher demand to get delivered than E85. The numbers do not make sense, but with one of the largest Ethanol Complexes in the World in the little town I live in I know trucks are often in short supply. I would stick with conventional fuel for the time being, especially for those still under warranty.

 

[LSchicago]

Around here, E85 tracks about $1 per gallon less than premium. Is it worth getting an E85 tune?

Saving money is not why anyone gets an E85 tune. Do it for the power, the hell with the cost.

 

[Performance nut]

E85 is unfortunately affected by high regular gas prices. The trucks transporting it to fill stations are still using regular ol' diesel, as are the farm equipment used to harvest the corn.

Lots of differing comments but I think ice445 has one of the most logical and simplest answer. With a couple of friends in the Trucking Business ( and living in a State where Ethanol Plants are prolific ) the issue is partly as ice noted as well as a supply issue with trucking. Not enough truckers , not enough trucks, and conventional fuel is a much higher demand to get delivered than E85. The numbers do not make sense, but with one of the largest Ethanol Complexes in the World in the little town I live in I know trucks are often in short supply.

Not sure if I understand that because the same trucks transport oil-based fuel as well as diesel. I mean not the exact same trucks but you know what I mean. Transport costs should be relatively the same across the board. For example, Valero makes a vast majority of the E85 in my area. They also make diesel and 87-93 octane fuel. The same trucks make all their deliveries.

I would stick with conventional fuel for the time being, especially for those still under warranty.

There have been a great deal of discussions on this. Depends on the year. Gen 3 are able to run E85 stock. Gen 2 and earlier need modifications. I have been running E85 for years and so far no fuel related problems.

 

[ice445]

Not sure if I understand that because the same trucks transport oil-based fuel as well as diesel. I mean not the exact same trucks but you know what I mean. Transport costs should be relatively the same across the board. For example, Valero makes a vast majority of the E85 in my area. They also make diesel and 87-93 octane fuel. The same trucks make all their deliveries.


There have been a great deal of discussions on this. Depends on the year. Gen 3 are able to run E85 stock. Gen 2 and earlier need modifications. I have been running E85 for years and so far no fuel related problems.

He's implying E85 is relatively low demand outside of refineries (who make the standard E10 blends everyone uses), so getting a truck allocated to haul it to a gas station over the primary two fuels is going to cost more when the cost of fuel to run that truck and the pay for the driver has gone up. Since corn based ethanol is heavily subsidized at an agricultural level, I suspect most of the price increases are coming from the logistics side of things.

It's all just speculation though, I don't claim to be in the industry.

 

[Balr14]

2/3 the milage of E10.

Doesn't matter, E85 tune is still worth it.

Where I live, additional performance is a waste of time. The only opportunity I ever get to use the gas pedal aggressively is on a freeway entrance, for 5 seconds, once a month or less.

 

[Fastoldman]

Ice is correct I was just stating the demand is less and with shortages of trucks the priority is on conventional fuels. Simple statement on using E85 while under warranty, though some of you may say you have not seen problems, those that have will likely be purchasing a blown motor on their own. This is across the board with all Manufacturers and I am not anti-E85 as my son and I race an EVO9 ( autocross ) and it only runs E85. Just being realistic for those who still have warranty on their cars , good idea to wait until it has expired before doing this mod.

 

[FruityJudy]

Cost to grow corn is stupid now. I sold ag chemicals, seed, and fertilizer up until 2019. I talked to a former coworker last week. Fertilizer is up 250%, seed is slightly up, chemicals such as atrazine (double the cost) and roundup 250% or more. These are just a couple of examples. A lot of our fertilizer comes from Russia (potash/urea). This along with paying higher labor wages, machinery costs have sky rocketed

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