Value vs Oil Prices - this could be something

[stanglife]

In 2019, Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman said:
“If the world does not take a strong and firm action to deter Iran, we will see further escalations that will threaten world interests. Oil supplies will be disrupted and oil prices will jump to unimaginably high numbers that we haven’t seen in our lifetimes,”

Now, it sounds like the US will accuse him of being involved with the murder of an American Journalist. Salman has already been quick to use oil leverage to achieve goals...I wonder what he will do in this case and how that might push US to even more EV production?

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[Sletcher]

I can see I’m going to need more coffee for the forum this morning....

Forecast is for gas prices to rise steadily until Memorial Day. I’m in Oklahoma and can only get 91 octane fuel (readily). That’s currently around $2.80/g and I’m expecting over $4 this summer. So, 40% increase and that doesn’t take into account the Saudi’s.

I did go look at a Mach E yesterday and I’m pleased with it. I won’t be purchasing anytime soon, but I prefer the interior over the Tesla’s and I fit. I’m 6’5” and with the front seat adjusted to allow pax in the back, (closer to the dash, but no knees touching) I can sit behind myself, no knees, shoulders or head touching.

Yep, more coffee.

 

[oldbmwfan]

The GT350 is a niche enough vehicle in terms of sales numbers that oil prices shouldn't have any effect on vehicle value. Those who want a 5.2L V8 that flows a ton of air and fuel and revs to 8,250 RPM will still want and pay for that even if gas is costlier. What's the average GT350 get driven, 2500 miles a year? Assume 16 mpg average, and you're talking 156 gallons of gas per annum. Even if the price of gas changes from $2.50/gal to $8/gal (like you see in Germany), your fuel expenditure just changed from $390 to $1,250. Is anyone going to sell their toy car because of a ~$850 change in annual operating cost? Nah. And a more realistic gas price is $4-5/ gal, so you're talking about a change that's more like $300/ year for most owners.

Now, where it will hit hard is SUV profitability. That's the bread and butter for most manufacturers these days, and history shows (post-Katrina, for example) that demand for big family movers drops off rapidly when gas clears $4/gal. That might be the thing that pushes faster EV adoption, but it will have little to no impact on the niche sports car market.

 

[FreePenguin]

I don’t oem a gt350 (wish) but damn I hope these gas prices don’t happen

 

[Strokerswild]

Sounds like it's going to be a great summer for burning corn juice!

 

[stanglife]

The GT350 is a niche enough vehicle in terms of sales numbers that oil prices shouldn't have any effect on vehicle value. Those who want a 5.2L V8 that flows a ton of air and fuel and revs to 8,250 RPM will still want and pay for that even if gas is costlier. What's the average GT350 get driven, 2500 miles a year? Assume 16 mpg average, and you're talking 156 gallons of gas per annum. Even if the price of gas changes from $2.50/gal to $8/gal (like you see in Germany), your fuel expenditure just changed from $390 to $1,250. Is anyone going to sell their toy car because of a ~$850 change in annual operating cost? Nah. And a more realistic gas price is $4-5/ gal, so you're talking about a change that's more like $300/ year for most owners.

Now, where it will hit hard is SUV profitability. That's the bread and butter for most manufacturers these days, and history shows (post-Katrina, for example) that demand for big family movers drops off rapidly when gas clears $4/gal. That might be the thing that pushes faster EV adoption, but it will have little to no impact on the niche sports car market.

I was kinda going the other way with it. Could spawn a bigger push to EV with reduced production of certain models that eat fuel....Mustang. This could be one of those things that make all these old fuel specialty cars more desirable ;)

 

[oldbmwfan]

I was kinda going the other way with it. Could spawn a bigger push to EV with reduced production of certain models that eat fuel....Mustang. This could be one of those things that make all these old fuel specialty cars more desirable ;)

I think we are both right, just with slightly different angles on which parts of the market gets hit, and on what time scale. I tend to believe limited-use vehicles have a demand profile that is almost completely divorced from practicalities like fuel cost. Vehicles that people drive every day, for long distances or high total mileage are very sensitive to fuel cost. I don't see the GT350 in the latter camp.

Longer term, I agree with you more - high fuel prices might accelerate a "fleet-wide" conversion to EV, but to me that would look like manufacturers being all-electric for new car sales by 2030 instead of 2035. And that has nothing to do with used car sales. If anything, now that the GT350 is out of production, rapid new-vehicle conversion toward EVs will likely raise the value of our cars, at least during the (long) period when fuel is readily available.

Gas stations won't disappear from the landscape for a long time (30+ years or more - until all vehicles sold through 2030 are past their "general" useful life, outside of collections. When 2035 models are vintage, there may be few consumer-facing gas stations around. Not a short-term concern at all, but I'm just crystal ball gazing.

 

[WildHorse]

Who cares ? You know where the US get the vast majority of foreign oil from ? EV will be dead in 4 years anyways.

 

[460Fred]

What's the average GT350 get driven, 2500 miles a year?

This is the real travesty!

 

[Postal Bob]

What's the average GT350 get driven, 2500 miles a year? Assume 16 mpg average, and you're talking 156 gallons of gas per annum

Wow, you get 16mph? I'm lucky I get 10mph. But I guess driving in the 5K-6K rpm range doesn't help. Either way, I won't be driving any less because of gas. I'll just keep blaming it on Joe, and hope for better days, and a return to energy independance.

 

[oldbmwfan]

Wow, you get 16mph? I'm lucky I get 10mph. But I guess driving in the 5K-6K rpm range doesn't help. Either way, I won't be driving any less because of gas. I'll just keep blaming it on Joe, and hope for better days, and a return to energy independance.

14 mpg average. But most of the driving is to the track (16-19 mpg) and on the track (5mpg).

 

[oldbmwfan]

Who cares ? You know where the US get the vast majority of foreign oil from ? EV will be dead in 4 years anyways.

EV will be dead in 4 years? That's news to a lot of folks, I'm sure.

EV companies haven't lost value over the past 4 years

And you can buy lots of 4+ year-old EVs with plenty of life left. Used Model S for sale
Or a different end of the range: 4+ year old i3s for sale

So, I guess I'm curious why you think EVs will be dead n 4 years.

 

[WildHorse]

EV will be dead in 4 years? That's news to a lot of folks, I'm sure.

Yeah.. no politics so I can't explain further.

 

[oldbmwfan]

Huh, never realized factual observations of market trends was political. Unless what you're suggesting has no basis in factual observations of market trends, of course.

 

[lenFeb]

Here's my 2¢.
IMO EV technology is not long to stay. How much is it cost to produce batteries and even more, disposed used ones. I think car industry will come up with better technology to power vehicles.

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