How well will Mach 1's hold their value?

[Mikepol2]

This topic has come up a little in a few other threads but probably deserves its own.

Mach 1 owners / orderers generally seem to feel like it will hold its value well.

GT350 owners (and to a lesser extent, other S550 owners) seem to think it will depreciate much faster than GT350s, and won't be worth much more than any other Mustang.

Personally I think there's an excellent chance that Mach 1's will hold their value better than GTs, and will hold it similarly to Shelbys. All you need for evidence is to look on Autotrader for a 2012-13 Boss 302 and compare what they are going for against 2012-13 GT's. Or go a few years further and compare 2003-04 Mach 1 values against 2003-04 GT's. That evidence is indisputable.

The other factor to consider is the unique circumstances under which this Mach 1 was introduced. Yes, Ford will make as many as they can sell - except they can't make any right now. The total number of 2021 Mach 1's that will eventually be produced will be a lower number than anyone expected because of the plant shutdowns, and it's hard to imagine that 2022's will be able to make up the difference. So, if it really is offered for only 2021 and 22, there won't be a lot of them out there. On the flip side, there are GT350s listed for sale all over Autotrader right now, they're not at all hard to find. 4 years of GT350 production vs 2 years of Mach 1's. You can argue all you want about which car is better but the fact remains there will be people who want a used Mach 1, and there will be a lot less Mach 1's to choose from than other cars.

I say all this as someone with a Mach 1 on order but also considering buying a used GT350.

Sponsored

 

[Atlas1]

I think the boss 302 is a fair comparison, although admittedly I don’t know the production numbers of that car. Like you mentioned the production issues this year are going to have a huge effect down the road as there was a level of demand that was not met and simply a lower number of cars produced keeping them more rare than they otherwise would have been. I think to a lot of buyers the gt350 will always be worth more than a Mach 1 even before you factor in performance. But the Mach 1 should have a pretty good following as well. I don’t put too much stock in gt350 values at the moment because all used values are inflated. Let’s see when things return to a more normal market what happens with them. Their value if I remember correctly had dropped as expected then skyrocketed in the last year. There really isn’t a reason for that anymore than all of the other vehicle prices that have reached crazy levels. Another thing and this is not meant as a shot at the gt350 but let’s see what happens to their values as they all come out of warranty and new owners are faced with the possibility of having to replace an engine out of pocket. That would keep me from owning one in the future.

 

[balzee]

My concern is my there is s650 coming out soon and we dont know much about it . If there is a s650 that has tremec in it then i think i can kiss the value of my mach1 goodbye coz it will drop. Thats just my 2 cents

 

[shogun32]

You can argue all you want about which car is better but the fact remains there will be people who want a used Mach 1, and there will be a lot less Mach 1's to choose from than other cars.

except you are assuming there's any useful difference to a M1 vs a run-of-the-mill GT and there really isn't. 5 years from now I'd be surprised if you get much north of $1500 premium over a similar trim GT. Sure people will try - just look at what people were trying to get on Bullits.

The GT350 premium was very modest back in 2018/2019. Any extrapolation of 2020/21 pricing into the future is not productive.

 

[Mikepol2]

except you are assuming there's any useful difference to a M1 vs a run-of-the-mill GT and there really isn't. 5 years from now I'd be surprised if you get much north of $1500 premium over a similar trim GT. Sure people will try - just look at what people were trying to get on Bullits.

Don't forget that there are lots of people who don't care about performance but will pay for the decals. Christian Louboutin shoes probably don't perform much better than shoes from Kohl's, but there are an awful lot of people who will pay a lot of money for the privilege of getting to show off their bright red soles. Again, just look up Boss 302 vs GT prices.

 

[Atlas1]

Don't forget that there are lots of people who don't care about performance but will pay for the decals. Christian Louboutin shoes probably don't perform much better than shoes from Kohl's, but there are an awful lot of people who will pay a lot of money for the privilege of getting to show off their bright red soles. Again, just look up Boss 302 vs GT prices.

Just looked it up. Roughly 8,300 boss 302’s. I figure double the number of Mach 1’s. It feels like a good comparison though

 

[Weeee]

Fourwheel Trader uses actual data to support his resale analysis. I recommend the videos.

• GT350 resale analysis
• Mustang Bullitt analysis

To save you 30 minutes of viewing, they will hold their values very well.

 

[shogun32]

Fourwheel Trader uses actual data to support his resale analysis. I recommend the videos. ... they will hold their values very well.

except his data is ' will show you how much the values changed in the last six months ' and video published April 2021. HIs reference point is during the ramp into the wild distortion we have today and thus any and all conclusions are worthless beyond Dec 2021.

Bullitts new off the lot were being discounted 15% and more just like their GT brothers just to get them sold. That is your baseline, not anything much past April of 2020. We can restart valuation discussions come June 2022 once the bottom has fallen out of the used car python and manufacturers have 4+ months of full-rate production under their belts.

If you want to make a killing today, your probably can and have at it.

 

[sakman84]

This thread is hitting all the relevant points.

It will probably play out just like the Boss 302s, this is probably the best comparison. How much more do the 302s go for over GTs? 3K or more?

If the S650 includes the Tremec in GTs, this will be a serious blow to M1 values.

To a lesser extent, what happens with the used Shelbys as they come out of warranty will impact M1s a bit and this could push numbers either way.

M1s do have the low production numbers going for it. Agreed Ford will try to build and sell as many as possible, but the realities of their supply chain problems and the COVID economy, really hurt their ability to actually move units.

I think the Bullitt was always over priced, and they had to do serious price reductions to move units, especially at the end of the first model year. Plus the extras the Bullitt offered over GT PP cars was very little, and much more of a niche appeal than M1.

 

[Mikepol2]

If the S650 includes the Tremec in GTs, this will be a serious blow to M1 values.

Here’s why IMO the Tremec has never been in the GT but is in the M1 and GT350:

Gas guzzler tax.

The MT82 has 2 overdrive gears, the Tremec has 1. Ford doesn’t want to add $1000 to every GT for the GGT, they want to sell as many GTs as possible. Same philosophy for S650s.

I would be stunned to see the Tremec as the standard S650 manual. Not so for the 480hp engine, that would almost be expected to be the stock S650 GT engine.

 

[Wolvee]

Does it really matter? If they only make it the 2 years it'll still just be in the middle of GT and Shelby's just like the SN GT's and SVT's. There's no way it'll hold value like a Shelby, there just hasn't been enough Hype from Ford and the certified Youtube experts.

I do think there will be a value difference with the handling packs esspecially if the miles are kept low by Shelby Level collectors. FJG will be as valuable as extra shiny mud and the plain normally less desired colors might be a little high because of being less popular in the beginning. ..could be wrong if they are limiting color production numbers.

 

[cmxPPL219]

Some good points raised here, I'll add some:

First, let's get out of the way that most people who own a particular car/model and like/love their particular car/model will often have some "bias" toward something like this topic.

Also, what I've seen some people call the "wildcard" effect, where, despite all logic, some cars just maintain or rise in value unexpectedly, for no apparent reason that could have been foreseen years earlier - Unexpected interest in the platform by a different age group, etc. For example, the Gen2 Camaro, or even the Mustang II - though not stratospheric in values at the moment, interest in those two particular cars is somewhat renewing in recent years, despite what many who were around circa that era would have said - and the values are slowly reflecting this. (it should also be added, it depends heavily on trim)

But comparisons between the "potential" future value of GT350/R and Mach 1 are inevitable, and understandable, especially since Ford left a major gap in the line-up that the Mach 1 fills, post GT350 departure.

GT350/R
The current production issues due to commodity shortages are somewhat inflating what we see in terms of GT350/R values, as a used car, generally.
However, looking at it as as GT350/R, (specifically, the R) we can already see how much it's holding it's value now - in fact, it's increased in resale value, in the last year, especially post-production discontinuation, past it's sticker MSRP.

A few aspects almost guarantee that it "holds" its value - The R models much more so than the Non-R:
-5.2 Flat Plane Crank, N/A Engine - Bespoke to the model
-Carbon fiber wheels - first for a "mass-produced" series production OEM vehicle
-Discontinued from production
-Variants of the model, such as the Base R (i.e., no Radio, A/C) which is exceedingly rare

Mach 1
It's honestly very hard to say.
For this variation, if we look only from a bespoke components pov, which often is a factor for values - it's only the front fascia, and the graphics. Everything else is mostly parts-binned (with exception being the fact that the Tremec can rev-match, and the no-lift shift feature, and trim/wheels.)

However, as we all know, it's not all about bespoke componentry. It's often what the car brings as a whole, to the table. And, as a whole, judged by the merits of what it brings to the table - especially in handling pack form - it's awesome. On that note, any notable value maintenance or rise, will possibly be more than likely be attributed to the handling pack models. Will it hold it's value better than the normal GTs? I think we already can call that one.

What cars like the Mach 1 have going for it, in my view, is more the general industry trends (such as the move away from ICE) and the slow disappearance of V8s in general. With the Mach 1 being the "pinnacle of 5.0L performance," as Ford says, this does lend some credence to any potential value maintenance / increase. The S550 will be the last gen before electrification / hybridization or whatever, comes into the fray. And, from the pov that this was the pinnacle of 5.0 V8 development from the factory, as one of the last in the ICE-only age of Mustang "coupes" (let's not talk about the Mach-E lol) this does help the Mach 1's case, in my view.

Another factor, just in general, is how much people are willing to pay for cars in the used market. That has a direct effect on what sellers know they can charge. So, that old saying that something is worth as much as someone will pay for it?

As of now, I'd be in the camp that says it's too early to call, and anyone who says the opposite, in very definitive fashion - we would all love to see the proof.

There's always that wildcard factor, though.

 

[luc]

This topic has come up a little in a few other threads but probably deserves its own.

Mach 1 owners / orderers generally seem to feel like it will hold its value well.

GT350 owners (and to a lesser extent, other S550 owners) seem to think it will depreciate much faster than GT350s, and won't be worth much more than any other Mustang.

Personally I think there's an excellent chance that Mach 1's will hold their value better than GTs, and will hold it similarly to Shelbys. All you need for evidence is to look on Autotrader for a 2012-13 Boss 302 and compare what they are going for against 2012-13 GT's. Or go a few years further and compare 2003-04 Mach 1 values against 2003-04 GT's. That evidence is indisputable.

The other factor to consider is the unique circumstances under which this Mach 1 was introduced. Yes, Ford will make as many as they can sell - except they can't make any right now. The total number of 2021 Mach 1's that will eventually be produced will be a lower number than anyone expected because of the plant shutdowns, and it's hard to imagine that 2022's will be able to make up the difference. So, if it really is offered for only 2021 and 22, there won't be a lot of them out there. On the flip side, there are GT350s listed for sale all over Autotrader right now, they're not at all hard to find. 4 years of GT350 production vs 2 years of Mach 1's. You can argue all you want about which car is better but the fact remains there will be people who want a used Mach 1, and there will be a lot less Mach 1's to choose from than other cars.

I say all this as someone with a Mach 1 on order but also considering buying a used GT350.

As a rule cars are very bad investment so your point is that the M1 is a bad investment but not as bad than some other Mustangs ????

 

[Mikepol2]

As a rule cars are very bad investment so your point is that the M1 is a bad investment but not as bad than some other Mustangs ????

Sure, if you want to describe it that way. Not sure anyone on 6G would look at their car as an investment though - you’d expect that line of thinking from accountants or chess players.

 

[shogun32]

Not sure anyone on 6G would look at their car as an investment though

well, the very premise of your thread and the dozen+ like it would suggest people mistake cars for "investments' and not 'durable consumer goods'.

Sponsored