GM is pulling back on EVs

[martinjlm]

This is anecdotal but everyone I know who has a BEV says they will not buy another, unless it is just a weekend fun car. Too much hassle at this time. I do have one friend who had a tesla burn down his house. This was before we knew about the battery fire hazzard of not being able to put it out.

Also anecdotal…

• I had a ‘79 Mustang Indy Pace Car catch fire while I was driving it.
• My son’s 2009 Saturn Vue caught fire while he was driving it

I just mention those because I’d bet the odds of two people in the same family have a vehicle catch fire while in motion has to be pretty rare.

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[Mitch03]

Also anecdotal…

• I had a ‘79 Mustang Indy Pace Car catch fire while I was driving it.
• My son’s 2009 Saturn Vue caught fire while he was driving it

I just mention those because I’d bet the odds of two people in the same family have a vehicle catch fire while in motion has to be pretty rare.

I’ve had many cars and my friends have too and absolutely none of them caught fire. You must be one unlucky family or don’t know how to take care of a vehicle.

 

[Mitch03]

Also anecdotal…

• I had a ‘79 Mustang Indy Pace Car catch fire while I was driving it.
• My son’s 2009 Saturn Vue caught fire while he was driving it

I just mention those because I’d bet the odds of two people in the same family have a vehicle catch fire while in motion has to be pretty rare.

Or just trying to sell more EV’s…….

 

[Vlad Soare]

I just mention those because I’d bet the odds of two people in the same family have a vehicle catch fire while in motion has to be pretty rare.

Do those two people happen to use the same mechanic, by any chance? That might explain it.

 

[martinjlm]

Do those two people happen to use the same mechanic, by any chance? That might explain it.

Well the two incidents were 30 years apart, so there’s that. The Mustang was a factory defect. I only mention the incidents because I’ve never heard of two people in the same family having that happen. Sorta like lightening striking two family members three decades apart.

 

[sk47]

You are right about the range, but there is a twist. ICE cars tend to average 300–450 miles range based on EPA MPG ratings x fuel tank size. The newest EVs have range in the 270 - 320 mile range. Mustangs (since this is a Mustang forum) have range from 277 - 344 miles. The twist is that most EV owners wake up with that amount of range every morning, whereas for ICE vehicles that range is lower and lower everyday until they find a gas station and top off. Refueling habits change drastically with EVs compared to how you and I have grown up refueling our vehicles. We grew up filling our tanks and driving as long and as far as we could within our own comfort level. Then we stopped and filled up and repeated that cycle. In rough times we might get in the habit of just adding $5 here and $10 there, but for the most part, we filled / depleted / filled / depleted.

With EVs that charge at home, you wake up on “F”. You use a fraction of the total range and you top off at home and repeat the process the next day. For long trips most newer EVs can plot you trips such that you do not spend much time at the charger. You don’t run it down to E and when you stop at a charger you only add enough charge to safely get you to your next point with safety margin. In most cases that can be a 10-30 minute stop.

My biggest concern on a long trip would be quality of the individual chargers. We are seeing a lot more issues with condition of the individual chargers than I myself would be comfortable with.

Range is no longer an issue. EVs actually have MORE range than they need based on how they are used and refueled. Refueling is complicated, because except for those 1-5 long trips a family may make in a year, refueling an EV is infinitely simpler than an ICE. Park, plug, go to bed. Couldn’t be easier. Actually, it could. Wireless vehicle charging, but that’s another topic. But just like I would expect that most Mustang owners would park the Mustang and use a larger family vehicle to go cross country to grandma’s for thanksgiving, I expect that until people are more comfortable with charging networks, some will park the EV and take the ICE for cross country trips. Or not.

Ever hear the Wayne Gretzky quote when he was asked why such a small scrawny guy like himself could be the GOAT in a high speed physical sport like hockey? He said something to the effect of “I don’t skate to where the puck is, I skate to where the puck is going to be”. The 5% number you quoted is where the puck was. A snapshot in time. Just a few years ago EV sales were around 3%. Then 4…then 5… For 2022, 5.7% of new vehicles purchased in the US were full electric. The rate of growth of EVs is about 60% year over year. Rate of growth is how you see where the puck will be. The gating issues have been the type of vehicles available, the volume of vehicles available, and the price of vehicles available. All three of those things are improving on pretty much a daily basis. Early on, the only EVs available were weird little science experiments (1st Gen Leaf, Fiat 500e) or luxury sedans (Tesla Model S). The high volume is in vehicle classes in the middle. Those “in the middle” vehicles are rolling out in droves now and the prices for those vehicles are falling in at the high end of ICE prices for similar vehicles. Factor in the fact that buyers no longer have to pay for gas and the total cost of use quickly improves over ICE equivalents.


As you suggest, speculation.


In total the grid is more than sufficient for the EVs that are coming to market over the next few years. Since components of the grid are locally managed, conditions do vary from locale to locale. The grid is also being continuously upgrade through funding available from the bipartisan infrastructure bill as well as normal maintenance spending. An increasing number of new EV models are coming to market with bi-directional charging which allows the vehicles to put energy back into the grid when needed. There is a report where a bus fleet charged their buses during off-peak hours at low rates then sold energy back to the grid during high usage periods and earned $10,000 per bus over the course of a year. That’s an outlier case for sure, but the point being, different use patterns have different draws on the grid at different time. Ignore the temptation of studying “what if all these 100kWh capacity EVs plug in at the same time?”. It’ll never happen and design a grid to support that would be foolhardy.

Hello; You went too deep into fantasy land with these replies. I get it is your job to sugar coat these issues. At least you have not yet resorted to the arrogance and nastiness of some who share your views.

There was a reason why I associated range and charging by listing them as the first two problems that are still someday solutions. My 2001 Sentra-SE still gets around 35 MPG. With an 11 gallon tank I can go close to 385 miles. Of course, I do not run it empty. But i can stop for gas and be on my way in maybe ten minutes. Being old I stop more for a restroom more than gas anymore. Color it any way you wish, but even the most pro EV folks understand the EV's are far from being close to an ICE on range and fillup. The other thing is I can fillup my ICE to 100% range in just a few minutes.
I had a 1972 Porsche 914 with the 1.7 engine. Had a 16 gallon tank. It could get 40 MPG if i took it easy. That was 640 miles. I use to drive it the 350 miles to Indianapolis to visit my father when he was alive during the first gas embargo in the 1970's. I was able to get some gas when in Indy so could drive home Sunday night and get up early Monday to drive the 22 miles to work for a few days.
A way EV's have increased range of late is to stuff a bigger battery pack into vehicles. Gets more range but also costs a lot more for the extra batteries. I get the strategy. If short range numbers hurt the general perceptions then stuff more fuel (Electric energy charge) in. Even so the actual range of an EV is not that impressive.
The other thing about EV range is using features of the EV will shorten range. Some shorten a lot. Use AC or heat the range drops off. Use headlights, wipers, stereo at the same time and range drops even further. Same for an ICE but to a minuscule degree in case that ploy is tried. But i get it. If you need to go 120 miles and have 300 miles of range, you are golden.

Gotta love the spin on sales. 5% is still 5% overall. Might be a 60% increase over some past sales year. Still 95% buy ICE. I am sure with the mandates and pressure on the manufacturers that percentage will go up. The agenda is taking away the choices we consumers will have by force. So i also expect BEV sales to increase. Will not translate into people are choosing the BEV over an ICE.

Will not spend too much energy on grid capacity. We have been living thru maxed out grids the last few years without large numbers of BEV's adding greater demand. Winter and summer spells of them asking us to cut back on electric energy use for several years with BEV sales at maybe 3%. You comment like a true believer, but i get it now. It is part of the job.
By the way with all the BEV's coming there will not be a lower energy demand at night any more. It will become a choose what you are going to do without time. Charge the EV or run the heat a bit higher in the winter. Charge the EV or turn off the AC in the summer.

Lest i forget lets say you have a full charge on the EV and the grid needs energy. The plan is to rob the needed energy from private BEV's. Using personal EV's as grid backup. I only recently discovered that plan.
I will be unplugging any EV I am forced to own when it has a full charge. Oh. OH. I forget. Wireless charging is coming so I will lose even that much control over my life. Guess i will have to get up and move the BEV away.

 

[sk47]

Texas bill would slap $200 annual fee on electric car drivers (msn.com)
Hello; We knew this was coming. I pay tax when i buy fuel. That goes for road work. EV charging at home also will use the roads.
But the pattern of the agenda is known. ICE owners already get to help pay for EV incentives so why not extend making ICE owners pay for road taxes and let the EV owners skate???
Plan seems to be make the ICE owners pay more and help the EV owners at every opportunity.

Saw an unrelated thing recently. Seems on May 1st those with good credit scores will have to pay extra on a mortgage to supplement those with bad credit. What a mind twist that one is. I have good credit scores over 800 because I pay my bills and live within my means. The assumed thing is somehow I will have the extra money because I have good credit. No, I have good credit because I take care and have done without frills much of my life.
So, I will get to help pay someone's bills who has been less than wise with money.

 

[K4fxd]

I heard Ca is or will charge for electric according to your income.

 

[K4fxd]

• I had a ‘79 Mustang Indy Pace Car catch fire while I was driving it.
• My son’s 2009 Saturn Vue caught fire while he was driving it

This is while driving, my buddies T burned in his garage.

I only bring up the fires due to the inability to swiftly put out an EV fire.

 

[martinjlm]

So much wrong here. Wow.

Hello; You went too deep into fantasy land with these replies. I get it is your job to sugar coat these issues. At least you have not yet resorted to the arrogance and nastiness of some who share your views.

First you try to categorize me in a box of your own design and vague definition, then you try to tell me what my job is. Dude, stop. For the record, my pushback on categorization is that it is a tactic used by those without the ability to effectively challenge thought on issues. It’s easier to put those you don’t agree with in a box, then disparage the box. Eliminates the need to have to present a well thought out argument. It’s one of the many things that is wrong with today‘s political climate. </rant>

There was a reason why I associated range and charging by listing them as the first two problems that are still someday solutions. My 2001 Sentra-SE still gets around 35 MPG. With an 11 gallon tank I can go close to 385 miles. Of course, I do not run it empty. But i can stop for gas and be on my way in maybe ten minutes. Being old I stop more for a restroom more than gas anymore. Color it any way you wish, but even the most pro EV folks understand the EV's are far from being close to an ICE on range and fillup. The other thing is I can fillup my ICE to 100% range in just a few minutes.
I had a 1972 Porsche 914 with the 1.7 engine. Had a 16 gallon tank. It could get 40 MPG if i took it easy. That was 640 miles. I use to drive it the 350 miles to Indianapolis to visit my father when he was alive during the first gas embargo in the 1970's. I was able to get some gas when in Indy so could drive home Sunday night and get up early Monday to drive the 22 miles to work for a few days.

Actually, I don’t see where we are that much different in view in this area. EVs are targeting 300 mile range as a norm, not because it is a magic number or the best number, but because for decades consumer surveys have shown that customers become uncomfortable buying a vehicle with less than 300 miles in range. The optimal range for EVs is probably something less, except for vehicles focused on multiple long trips. A very small percentage of vehicle population.

A way EV's have increased range of late is to stuff a bigger battery pack into vehicles. Gets more range but also costs a lot more for the extra batteries. I get the strategy. If short range numbers hurt the general perceptions then stuff more fuel (Electric energy charge) in. Even so the actual range of an EV is not that impressive.

Pretty much. That’s why I said above that the optimal range for EVs is probably lower than 300 miles, but the 300 mile target is based on customer discomfort with range on ICE vehicles as demonstrated through decades of research. So the target is 300. The other thing to note is that battery efficiency gains are also a way to increase range. The first generation Nissan Leaf got 84 miles on a 24 kWh battery. The second generation Leaf gets a minimum of 150 miles on a 40 kWh battery. They have a larger battery available that gets them over 200 miles. So for Leaf, efficiency increased from 2.1 miles per kWh to 3.75 miles per kWh. Then there’s the Tesla Model Y which can go 316 miles on 74 kWh. That’s 4.2 miles per kWh. As efficiency goes up, range goes up with smaller increases in battery size and less added vehicle mass.

The other thing about EV range is using features of the EV will shorten range. Some shorten a lot. Use AC or heat the range drops off. Use headlights, wipers, stereo at the same time and range drops even further. Same for an ICE but to a minuscule degree in case that ploy is tried. But i get it. If you need to go 120 miles and have 300 miles of range, you are golden.

Nope. Wrong. I just spoke to the Battery Council International at their national convention on this exact topic. Every EV still has a low voltage battery on board that powers all the stuff you mentioned, with the exception that some aspects of the HVAC draw from both the low voltage and the high voltage battery. An EV has zero range degradation from use of lights, wipers, stereo.

Gotta love the spin on sales. 5% is still 5% overall. Might be a 60% increase over some past sales year. Still 95% buy ICE. I am sure with the mandates and pressure on the manufacturers that percentage will go up. The agenda is taking away the choices we consumers will have by force. So i also expect BEV sales to increase. Will not translate into people are choosing the BEV over an ICE.

Not spin. Facts. Feel free to bring facts to counter. And it’s not “a 60% increase over some past sales year”. It’s an average of 60% growth year to year for multiple years. In other words, 2022 was 60% more sales than 2021 which was 60% increase over 2020, etc.

Will not spend too much energy on grid capacity. We have been living thru maxed out grids the last few years without large numbers of BEV's adding greater demand. Winter and summer spells of them asking us to cut back on electric energy use for several years with BEV sales at maybe 3%. You comment like a true believer, but i get it now. It is part of the job.

Again with the job $#it. Whatever, dude.

By the way with all the BEV's coming there will not be a lower energy demand at night any more. It will become a choose what you are going to do without time. Charge the EV or run the heat a bit higher in the winter. Charge the EV or turn off the AC in the summer.

Not really. If I have an EV with a 120 kWh battery and my neighbor has an EV with a 75kWh battery and we both use 18kWh driving around, who will draw the most energy when we plug in that night? Not a trick question.

Lest i forget lets say you have a full charge on the EV and the grid needs energy. The plan is to rob the needed energy from private BEV's. Using personal EV's as grid backup. I only recently discovered that plan.
I will be unplugging any EV I am forced to own when it has a full charge. Oh. OH. I forget. Wireless charging is coming so I will lose even that much control over my life. Guess i will have to get up and move the BEV away.

This comes across as paranoia. “They’re comin’ to get our guns energy”. For EVs with bi-directional charging, the pushing of energy back to the grid has to be initiated by the vehicle owner, and then only in those localities where that activity is allowed. Some local utility boards have regulations that would treat such activities as “acting as a power company” and would regulate them as such. Others don’t. And wireless vehicle charging is unidirectional, so you’d be safe there. The primary purposes of bidirectional charging are to be able to power tools and equipment on job-sites, campsites, beach outings, tailgate parties and also to be able to power your home, like a generator, in power out situations.

 

[martinjlm]

This is while driving, my buddies T burned in his garage.

I only bring up the fires due to the inability to swiftly put out an EV fire.

I get that. I wasn’t offering a counterpoint, just pointing out something that is extremely rare. The ability to manage fires related to lithium ion is a big frickin’ deal.

 

[Strokerswild]

Nope. Wrong. I just spoke to the Battery Council International at their national convention on this exact topic. Every EV still has a low voltage battery on board that powers all the stuff you mentioned, with the exception that some aspects of the HVAC draw from both the low voltage and the high voltage battery. An EV has zero range degradation from use of lights, wipers, stereo.

As a Minnesotan, and thus having to live with and travel in terrible weather conditions for a good fraction of the year, this part is a big concern. While it's never happened to me, people do get stranded in blizzards and consequently can spend hours trapped in vehicles overnight (sometimes sub-zero) running heat trying to stay alive. I wonder if these scenarios are considered as far as EVs go, since battery load and longevity thereof in those conditions would be non-typical but important.

 

[K4fxd]

Mythbusters did a test of EV's and loss of range due to A/C and heat. I forget the actual numbers but it was quite a bit. 3 to 6% is what I remember.

 

[martinjlm]

Mythbusters did a test of EV's and loss of range due to A/C and heat. I forget the actual numbers but it was quite a bit. 3 to 6% is what I remember.

Here’s my actual experience where the EV I was driving provided detail on the range with and without HVAC. In this case it’s a 1.1% difference. 3-6% would seem reasonable if it was much warmer or colder during this particular drive.

 

[Gregs24]

As a Minnesotan, and thus having to live with and travel in terrible weather conditions for a good fraction of the year, this part is a big concern. While it's never happened to me, people do get stranded in blizzards and consequently can spend hours trapped in vehicles overnight (sometimes sub-zero) running heat trying to stay alive. I wonder if these scenarios are considered as far as EVs go, since battery load and longevity thereof in those conditions would be non-typical but important.

Probably better off in an EV as no exhaust fumes to worry about when keeping warm

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