Anybody buying this media fueled COVID-19 bull schitt?

[Weather Man]

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[Weather Man]

One, of Los Angeles County, found an infection rate of 5.6% and an IFR of 01.-0.3% and another of Santa Clara County found an infection rate of 4.1% and an IR of 0.1-0.2%. In the case of the Santa Clara study, the test had such a high rate of false positives that some researchers suggested that it is possible that all of the positives were false positives, while others raised the possibility that the sample was designed in such a way that it was not random . The Los Angeles study has been criticized for not releasing its methodology or the type of antibody test it used.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...tion-rate-illustrates-coronavirus-uncertainty

There are now vested financial and political reasons to make covid-19 as bad as possible, including multiple D states trying to bail their pension systems out with federal money.

 

[Weather Man]

The R0 have also been falling much faster than anticipated during the lock down.

That threw the short term modeling through a loop.

https://rt.live/ R0 models. I don’t particularly believe them.

I think covid 19 has been circulating far and wide since Jan. I know a lot of people that had a really strange "cold" back in Jan. They were shutting schools down there were so many "flu" cases. I had that strange cold, day 1 was in sinuses, overnight it filled my lungs with cotton and then had a weird dry cough and it was hell to get anything up, took a week to slowly clear off. We'll see what the testing shows nationally over the next few months as the testing really gets rolling.

 

[Weather Man]

I agree completely. The moral hazard created by bailing out years of terrible management on the back of the middle terrifying. Like I said earlier the worst thing this far is the fed buying junk bonds. They will soon be buying ETFs. We are now a fully central planned country.

China blew their economy up over this. It really is bad. China would kill a million people to add 1% to gdp.

I don't believe China deliberately released the virus, I do believe they made the decision that if they were going down, so was everyone else.

 

[Weather Man]

I personally think it was just China’s terrible management that let this thing walk out.

They knew and did not say until it was to late. They will not like how the world treats them next time.

 

[Weather Man]

Mathematically that is not possible. With a 4 days doubling period and an uncheck R0 of 3-5.6 that would put about 104,000,000,000(all) cases in the US if there were 10 cases at the end of January.

We'll see.

 

[shogun32]

The R0 have also been falling much faster than anticipated during the lock down.

the slope was already on the way down before the 'illegal house-arrest' decrees were set forth. And all the models already had "full social distancing" baked into them. And they were still wildly off. A model that can't fit known data points (the past) is useless. This has been a total fraud from the get-go.

The medical community is largely at fault for spreading the disease. The politicians refuse to address the actual vectors - health care workers being allowed to leave any facility that has Wuhan patients. But that doesn't fit the "hero" meme. And we can't admit that US medical staff have appalling infection control practices.

 

[Shifting_Gears]

the slope was already on the way down before the 'illegal house-arrest' decrees were set forth. And all the models already had "full social distancing" baked into them. And they were still wildly off. A model that can't fit known data points (the past) is useless. This has been a total fraud from the get-go.

The medical community is largely at fault for spreading the disease. The politicians refuse to address the actual vectors - health care workers being allowed to leave any facility that has Wuhan patients. But that doesn't fit the "hero" meme. And we can't admit that US medical staff have appalling infection control practices.

Speaking of infection control, while many restaurants are setting forth corporate standards for handling food and promoting food safety, I think a false sense of security has been installed from that.

I have personally seen a restaurant take food back over the counter after it was handed over to the customer and left the restaurant. Yesterday I handed an incorrect order back (touched my bare hands, for all they know I could’ve just had snot on my hands) that was swapped with my order and I’m positive what I had touched went to the correct recipient. People at drive thrus are wearing the same gloves for hours on end, which is no different than being bare handed except offering them personal protection. These are the same people that have their personal drinks and food they sit right beside the register and work on between customers (AKA handling your food). I’ve seen many people wearing masks but not covering their noses.. wtf?

While I’m sure there is a solid degree of success in these implementations, you have to wonder how much of a “set it and forget it” mindset is taken with these approaches.

My point is - implementing new standards in itself doesn’t retrain the human mind on how to perform the same procedure with a heightened understanding of the why. People who are dialed in will get it, people who aren’t at best have a couple more fail safes to prevent their own sloppiness from infecting someone else. That applies to everyone from the medical word to the service industry.

The biggest problem is many of our population are downright ignorant of how to handle something like this safely. You have the people who think this is fake and take no action, you have the people who refuse to be told what to do and adapt better safety standards, you have people who just don’t understand what’s going on due to lack of education/ability to connect the dots and you have people who say “this won’t happen to me” AKA every spring breaker who decided partying > personal health/health of family. People are still laughing and scoffing at those wearing gloves and masks in areas it’s not mandatory. It’s pathetic. I guess the good news for them is they haven’t seen the walls close in around them, be it changes in their career, knowing someone or losing someone that’s infected, etc.

 

[Timeless]

This thing will end up killing at least 2 million Americans.

Not gonna happen...not even close even though everything right now is considered a Covid-19 death it seems.

It would take multiple mutations for years to get to that number (like the flu currently).

 

[Burkey]

Not gonna happen...not even close even though everything right now is considered a Covid-19 death it seems.

It would take multiple mutations for years to get to that number (like the flu currently).

I wonder what it would take to convince someone like yourself?
I mean, you won’t even accept the data, so it would seem that there’s literally nothing that could or would prove you wrong in your mind.
You also seem to reject the very basic idea that this is far more easily transmitted than the flu. Again, how would someone prove you wrong if you can’t accept the data?
Seems to me that you’ve created a situation where your beliefs are unassailable.

 

[Sivi70980]

Since some are predicting, I'll throw mine out there. Things will get opened back up. There will be another spike in people getting it. Things will be closed back down again. This yoyo effect will go on till we've all had it and gotten over it or died from it or research saves us from it. Meanwhile, the "leaders" will all be working to do nothing but cement their own positions of power while we suffer. As long as "they" still make their money in the end, "they" don't care about us at all. Alternatively, it really is something "they" are controlling even now and certain people/establishments will be instantly richer when the stock market recovers. But I'll be the first to admit I know nothing of politics, or viruses so this is a major shot in the dark based off movies and limited life experiences in these fields.

At some point, can we stop with the major political bashing? I feel like it solves absolutely nothing.

 

[Flimflamman]

People can predict all they want using intuition, data, models, etc. But nobody really knows what is going to happen. It could be around for a long time for all we know. Government and private sector have to plan for that from here on out. Especially since there is likely to be more strains of COVID.

I did see a headline (Wall Street Journal maybe?) about some scientists that are trying to form a "Manhattan Project" type team together to tackle this virus. I don't subscribe to it so I can't read it.

 

[IPOGT]

I'm still fascinated with this.....

 

[Flimflamman]

Lettuce revisit this come August (courtesy of CNN) Gloom and Doom for Georgia apparently.

Georgia's daily coronavirus deaths will nearly double by August with relaxed social distancing, model suggests

Snippets:

As some Southeastern US states start to reopen, Georgia is projected to see its number of daily Covid-19 deaths nearly double by early August, according to a model shared by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and created by independent researcher Youyang Gu.

Out of the 12 states in the Southeast United States, the model's projections for Georgia are the only that assume statewide social distancing will be relaxed starting on May 1, to reflect Gov. Brian Kemp's orders to reopen the state. The projections for the state of Georgia show the highest uptick in deaths per day will be between May and August for the region.

With the assumption of relaxed social distancing, the model predicts that the number of Covid-19 deaths per day in Georgia will jump from 32 people dying on May 1 to a projected 63 people dying per day by August 4.

Currently, 995 people have died from Covid-19 in Georgia, according to the model, and it projects that number could climb to 4,691 by August 4. The projection for total deaths in the state provides a range of estimates between 1,686 deaths on the lower end to up to 15,620 deaths on the higher end.

 

[olaosunt]

the slope was already on the way down before the 'illegal house-arrest' decrees were set forth. And all the models already had "full social distancing" baked into them. And they were still wildly off. A model that can't fit known data points (the past) is useless. This has been a total fraud from the get-go.

The medical community is largely at fault for spreading the disease. The politicians refuse to address the actual vectors - health care workers being allowed to leave any facility that has Wuhan patients. But that doesn't fit the "hero" meme. And we can't admit that US medical staff have appalling infection control practices.

I thought I was done with this thread but I can get over the disgust I felt since I first read the above post .
This is why conspiracy theorist are dangerous . What wacko website did you get your “talking points” . I am sure a quick google search will reveal it .
So it’s now medical workers fault ?? Based on what data ?
What would you have them do ? .. not show up at work to treat those in need or may be have them all quarantined just for showing up for work ??

Yet you seem to be a proposing the recommend physical distancing is ineffective or a “fraud “

I can assume you have not abided by them . I am sure you are aware (or may be not ) that a large number of infected persons show no symptoms . For all you know you have the infection and have been spreading it as you defy the “illegal house arrest”
But you have the gall to suggest health workers who no doubt practice much better “infection control practices” than you ever have are the ones to blame .
I am one one of the thousand of health workers who shows up daily as is required , even if it means exposing my self and my family to the virus .
I can assure we don’t think of ourselves as “heroes” for just doing our job .


shame on you !

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