FinitePrimus
Well-Known Member
Exactly this. Look at drones, look at aircraft, rockets, etc. They are all autonomous. The technology exists but is expensive. It would start with certain roadways, maybe highways, then expand. This is not overnight but a 20 year horizon. Planes talk to each other with transponders. This could be implemented in cars along with better more accurate GPS like systems etc.They could make a car now that could self drive, but they couldn't make one affordable. They land autonomous airplanes on aircraft carriers. I know that is different, but the tech today would make it possible but not at a cost that people are willing to pay or that would turn a profit. That all being said, the biggest hurdle probably is all the other unpredictable human drivers. You could make a system that would react fast enough, but again costs. That all being said, I am not concerned about loosing ice or diving in my lifetime.
Cars would cost maybe 400-500k that could do that, but that's the exact business model we will see. Even at a million you could still be profitable. Car manufactures will produce far less cars at much higher price points which they have to as we have already reached the point of affordability with 9 year loans. Other companies will operate the self-driving vehicles on demand service 24/7 maximizing the profit/cost for the higher priced vehicles. No more oil changes, battery updates, etc. as it would all be managed for you. It's just the personalized on-demand transport you would pay for. The world will have less cars on the road, driveways and parking lots will be converted to other uses etc. Personally driving your own vehicle will be outlawed as that is where the danger will lie - you want all self-driving so they can integrated and predict each other.
Looking into some of the recent tech news you can see the pattern and end-game:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carlto...-detection-by-connected-cars/?sh=5098dea25a3d
https://www.deviceplus.com/trending/the-alternative-to-gps-is-about-to-make-self-driving-cars-safer/
https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/vehicle-vehicle-communication
https://www.carscoops.com/2019/03/e...ters-and-emergency-braking-systems-mandatory/
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/28/ubers-self-driving-cars-are-a-key-to-its-path-to-profitability.html
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