What is your carvana sell offer for your Gt?

[faser]

Man, I need some of that industrial strength Kool-Aid you're sipping. Do they sell it at Costco?

You obviously know very little about the equities markets.

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[ctandc72]

There is no way it will take two years to catch up on "chips". All this so called shortage BS is just a ploy to sucker the consumer into paying absurd prices due to all the scarcity nonsense. The world's "chip" industry will catch up in short order and fart out more of these items than needed.
There will be no recession in the next few years, quite the contrary as the economy will remain strong and no thanks to the current administration that currently appears to have no clue. Rising prices will temper the take rate on consumer products in the short term and there is no surprise to that.
The stock market is taking out one all time high after another because the future is bright with an increase in earnings expectations.

The chip shortage is not a "ploy". It's a symptom exposing the underbelly of the "on demand" supply system that is much more fragile than many people want to admit.

Two different plants were damaged by fire - one before Covid 19 and lock downs hit.

Car makers made their own bed. They saw lock downs coming and figured new car demand would dry up. So they cut their orders from their suppliers.

Then with people staying home and many people working from home - demand for consumer and business electronics spiked.

So do you truly believe that none of the factories / plants / warehouses that are integral parts of the supply chain weren't effected by different lock downs in different states / countries etc?

Lumber is more than 3X more expensive that it was before COVID - is that a ploy too?

Or maybe it's the fact that when you shut down the economy it's not so easy just to start everything back up. Too many people don't factor in the MANY pieces of the supply chain that contribute - any disruption in any of those pieces, equals shortages and delays.

Truck drivers, warehouse workers, factory workers, fork lift drivers, workers at the shipping ports unloading / loading shipping containers etc etc etc.

Some weren't even ALLOWED to work depending on the location and the lock downs that were enforced / or not enforced.

Most people picture auto makers sitting around waiting on "Chips". No - for the most part their suppliers (many who are still having issues getting people back to work, for various reasons) are waiting on the chips. The chips they need to make assemblies and sub-assemblies that they then provide to the auto makers.

You really think the THOUSANDS of vehicles sitting around in just Michigan right now (Waiting on certain components / sub-assemblies) is a ploy?

 

[shogun32]

Too many people don't factor in the MANY pieces of the supply chain that contribute - any disruption in any of those pieces, equals shortages and delays.

this is why Communism (well, more accurately centrally planned economies) never work out and are grossly inefficient with shortages aplenty. Nobody can wrangle the entire chain sufficiently no matter how many blue-ribbon commissions and PhD's they throw into the shredder.

You really think the THOUSANDS of vehicles sitting around in just Michigan right now (Waiting on certain components / sub-assemblies) is a ploy?

Ford is losing BILLIONS in sales. They're short 6 figure units in a single quarter. Some ploy to "get more money" on each unit.

What's going to be lovely to watch is the Factory Incentives when the chips finally catch up and Ford has 10,000+ rotting trucks baking in the sun to get rid of now that the missing part or two was installed. I suspect it'll make the $15,000 discounts in 2020 look miserly.

 

[ctandc72]

this is why Communism (well, more accurately centrally planned economies) never work out and are grossly inefficient with shortages aplenty. Nobody can wrangle the entire chain sufficiently no matter how many blue-ribbon commissions and PhD's they throw into the shredder.

What really made the issue worse in the United States was the different ways that different states handles lock downs and which businesses were considered "essential". One part of a supply chain in one state was essential and kept working, but the plant that supplied them with certain materials, in another state, was locked down.

Or the simple fact that most people have zero clue how important truck drivers are to keep the entire thing chugging along. So if a business can't get the materials to build and deliver their product, they can't keep truckers and trucking companies working. So those trucks and those drivers go somewhere else. Once production starts back up, these drivers and trucks don't magically appear again.

When government enforces laws / legislation / executive actions (emergencies etc) these things always have unintended consequences, because for the most part the people writing these laws etc have zero clue how the entire supply system work.

Unintended consequences are still consequences.

 

[VIPR01]

32k Carmax 2017GT, ordered a Tesla Plaid model S

 

[faser]

The chip shortage is not a "ploy". It's a symptom exposing the underbelly of the "on demand" supply system that is much more fragile than many people want to admit.

Two different plants were damaged by fire - one before Covid 19 and lock downs hit.

Car makers made their own bed. They saw lock downs coming and figured new car demand would dry up. So they cut their orders from their suppliers.

Then with people staying home and many people working from home - demand for consumer and business electronics spiked.

So do you truly believe that none of the factories / plants / warehouses that are integral parts of the supply chain weren't effected by different lock downs in different states / countries etc?

Lumber is more than 3X more expensive that it was before COVID - is that a ploy too?

Or maybe it's the fact that when you shut down the economy it's not so easy just to start everything back up. Too many people don't factor in the MANY pieces of the supply chain that contribute - any disruption in any of those pieces, equals shortages and delays.

Truck drivers, warehouse workers, factory workers, fork lift drivers, workers at the shipping ports unloading / loading shipping containers etc etc etc.

Some weren't even ALLOWED to work depending on the location and the lock downs that were enforced / or not enforced.

Most people picture auto makers sitting around waiting on "Chips". No - for the most part their suppliers (many who are still having issues getting people back to work, for various reasons) are waiting on the chips. The chips they need to make assemblies and sub-assemblies that they then provide to the auto makers.

You really think the THOUSANDS of vehicles sitting around in just Michigan right now (Waiting on certain components / sub-assemblies) is a ploy?

Damn, you've got the world all figured out and nailed down to what a fork lift operator is doing now. Most unfortunate that the auto manufactures and the other industrial segment leaders didn't have you around a while back to set their course and avoid all this foolishness or do you simply have an acute case of 20/20 hindsight that compels you to flaunt your expertise after the fact?
Various industries have manipulated consumers for decades on a regular basis with these real or imagined "shortages for decades.
Give it a break Pal. Nobody needs your economic dissertation, you sound like a car salesman.

 

[ctandc72]

Damn, you've got the world all figured out and nailed down to what a fork lift operator is doing now. Most unfortunate that the auto manufactures and the other industrial segment leaders didn't have you around a while back to set their course and avoid all this foolishness or do you simply have an acute case of 20/20 hindsight that compels you to flaunt your expertise after the fact?
Various industries have manipulated consumers for decades on a regular basis with these real or imagined "shortages for decades.
Give it a break Pal. Nobody needs your economic dissertation, you sound like a car salesman.

So which is it? First you try to insult me - then tell me I have 20/20 hindsight. So does that mean you agree with me?

It's all a conspiracy theory to make more profits. Got it. At least tin foil is still in stock, you better hurry.

 

[shogun32]

At least tin foil is still in stock, you better hurry.

Renolds said the other day (as did P&G, Clorox, etc) they were going to pass on inflation to the consumer. So buy LOTS now!

 

[speedfrk]

So which is it? First you try to insult me - then tell me I have 20/20 hindsight. So does that mean you agree with me?

It's all a conspiracy theory to make more profits. Got it. At least tin foil is still in stock, you better hurry.

I mean, look how much money the auto manufacturers are making off the used car market!

 

[faser]

So which is it? First you try to insult me - then tell me I have 20/20 hindsight. So does that mean you agree with me?

It's all a conspiracy theory to make more profits. Got it. At least tin foil is still in stock, you better hurry.

Jeeezus, at no point did I try to "insult" you.
Everyone has 20/20 hindsight, I can't believe that there is anyone who speaks English as a first language that does not know what that expression means but obviously you don't.
You and I are on 2 very different levels and that is OK, I'm done here.

 

[ctandc72]

Jeeezus, at no point did I try to "insult" you.
Everyone has 20/20 hindsight, I can't believe that there is anyone who speaks English as a first language that does not know what that expression means but obviously you don't.
You and I are on 2 very different levels and that is OK, I'm done here.

Your right we are.
You have ZERO idea how the global supply chain works. You have zero idea how the supply chain effects everything from toilet paper to lumber.

I don't profess to be some "economic expert" as I think you mentioned - I simply understand the supply chain a little bit - since I've worked in areas that directly dealt with it and I have good friends who still deal with it every day.

You are all over the place. On one hand you rave about industries fooling consumers into thinking there is some imaginary shortage - just to inflate profits, but then you seem to acknowledge that the varying levels of COVID lock downs added to the fires that damaged TWO different large chip manufacturers, plus abnormally high demand for consumer and business electronics (because more people staying / working at home) all came together to let people see the effects of supply vs demand.

One poster here ranted and raved about us having to import all these things from different countries and we should manufacturer it all here - never realizing that it doesn't MATTER where it comes from, if we don't even have the personnel in place to run the warehouses / shipping companies that are all an integral part of the supply chain.

I've seen it first hand through friends of mine. Wholesale fuel distributors that are having trouble finding enough truck drivers to deliver those tankers full or fuel. Lumber yards that can't find enough people (Since some - depending on the state regulations during COVID lock downs- had to lay off staff and essentially shut their doors) to unload the trucks that DO get to their yard.

 

[ctandc72]

I think part of the recovery that people aren’t accounting for is the ‘take that job and shove it mentality’. Many of those truck drivers and other occupations retired once they were out of the rat race. People stopped and asked ‘why am I doing this’.

I personally don’t think the psychological consequences to the labor force have been realized yet.

I read an article by a finance guy........it was last year. He predicted we'd see a record number of newly minted millionaires in the next couple of years. People who jumped into to fill newly formed niches / demands when so many people started staying home more.

This thing is and has changed how many businesses, governments and large corporations are approaching things. If a large company was able to move the vast majority of their customer call center operations to remote / work from home (which many did) and even approach the same efficiency they had pre COVID - why in the hell wouldn't they keep people working from home? The money they would normally spend on leasing / maintaining the large commercial properties they used before COVID is now not being spent - and that is an easy way to help the bottom line, especially when answering to share holders. For many workers it literally puts more money in their pocket, especially those with long commutes.

 

[faser]

Your right we are.
You have ZERO idea how the global supply chain works. You have zero idea how the supply chain effects everything from toilet paper to lumber.

I don't profess to be some "economic expert" as I think you mentioned - I simply understand the supply chain a little bit - since I've worked in areas that directly dealt with it and I have good friends who still deal with it every day.

You are all over the place. On one hand you rave about industries fooling consumers into thinking there is some imaginary shortage - just to inflate profits, but then you seem to acknowledge that the varying levels of COVID lock downs added to the fires that damaged TWO different large chip manufacturers, plus abnormally high demand for consumer and business electronics (because more people staying / working at home) all came together to let people see the effects of supply vs demand.

One poster here ranted and raved about us having to import all these things from different countries and we should manufacturer it all here - never realizing that it doesn't MATTER where it comes from, if we don't even have the personnel in place to run the warehouses / shipping companies that are all an integral part of the supply chain.

I've seen it first hand through friends of mine. Wholesale fuel distributors that are having trouble finding enough truck drivers to deliver those tankers full or fuel. Lumber yards that can't find enough people (Since some - depending on the state regulations during COVID lock downs- had to lay off staff and essentially shut their doors) to unload the trucks that DO get to their yard.

Always comical when guys on internet forums have this need to educate the world on the concept of "supply and demand", "supply chains", etc. Great stuff and we now know that you likely have a High School education.
The US economy has proven to be profoundly resilient over the decades and will stabilize in the very near future whether the internet pontificators believe so or not.

 

[thecheff22]

2019 GT pp1 manual 9k miles $37k on zoom, paid 30k about a year ago. Tempting for sure.

 

[EmCel]

2019 GT pp1 manual 9k miles $37k on zoom, paid 30k about a year ago. Tempting for sure.

That's a good amount. I missed the 7k+ train with my offer but oh well

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