"Mustang Mach E" Confirmed, Reservations Begin Immediately After Nov 17 Live-Streamed Reveal

[martinjlm]

Hmmmm. Okay new business plan. Make an EV with modular batteries that can be removed in maybe 10 min. Then drive a diesel powered truck around with a bunch of batteries and go "hot swap" dead/overheated batteries all day.

Remember Better Place? Their business concept was swappable batteries. Tesla also looked at it for a minute or two. Here's a link to an article in 2013 explaining why Better Place failed. https://qz.com/88871/better-place-shai-agassi-swappable-electric-car-batteries/

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[Sivi70980]

10 minutes? I can "swap" in fresh fuel in 3. Come back when you're serious.

This is a service for those NEEDING to "save the world" with their EVs. Will show up in a fossil fueled vehicle to fix them all day long.

 

[Sivi70980]

This is the ad that shows up below your post...

I'm on board if these trucks deliver the batteries.

I really am thinking a mobile recharging truck will be a thing. Battery swap truck might be more for track use though.

 

[martinjlm]

I really am thinking a mobile recharging truck will be a thing. Battery swap truck might be more for track use though.

400 - 600 mile range batteries will come first. Along with high powered fast charging stations that can replenish batteries from a 20% state of charge to 80% state of charge in minutes.

 

[martinjlm]

So advances in technology and major infrastructure deployment will happen before some good-old-boys can load some batteries in their pickup?

It's already in progress.

 

[martinjlm]

No arguing that, but I don't see widespread adoption in a time frame less than a decade. Meanwhile, existing tow services could retrofit their vehicles to meet demand with current off the shelf solutions (generators, battery packs, etc.). Just an example of the kind of scale I'm talking about, see the EPA phase-out of leaded fuel. That took 25 years.

https://archive.epa.gov/epa/aboutepa/epa-takes-final-step-phaseout-leaded-gasoline.html

This type of change follows the money (like everything else). Less than 1% of US cars on the road are electric. There's not enough incentive for mass adoption of charging stations and heavy battery research. Even if new ICE sales were banned today, you've still got 100's of millions of vehicles that will linger on for years, if not decades.

True, it won't be widespread. Will probably never be widespread, anymore than 4xx+ hp cars with adjustable exhaust are widespread. But they'll be there for those who gotta have 'em. BEVs that will get introduced over the next year and a half will be offering 250+ mile ranges with options in the 400 mile range. Most people will charge at home and will only need a publicly available charger 5 or fewer times a year (long trips). Most vehicles with fast charge capability today can get you from a low state of charge to 80% in 30 minutes or less. The cycle for improvement is faster than the refresh rate for vehicle programs, so it's just a matter of time until availability of public recharge is not an issue.

But ICE vehicles will still be around and still be the high volume solution for many years to come. BEVs just become an increasingly equalized choice.

 

[Sivi70980]

E

True, it won't be widespread. Will probably never be widespread, anymore than 4xx+ hp cars with adjustable exhaust are widespread. But they'll be there for those who gotta have 'em. BEVs that will get introduced over the next year and a half will be offering 250+ mile ranges with options in the 400 mile range. Most people will charge at home and will only need a publicly available charger 5 or fewer times a year (long trips). Most vehicles with fast charge capability today can get you from a low state of charge to 80% in 30 minutes or less. The cycle for improvement is faster than the refresh rate for vehicle programs, so it's just a matter of time until availability of public recharge is not an issue.

But ICE vehicles will still be around and still be the high volume solution for many years to come. BEVs just become an increasingly equalized choice.

I'm likely 100% wrong on this but I don't thing EVs will truly take off till you can get one and the economy sbox price and mileage range. I think if they toned down 0-60 performance by a lot and focused on cheap 15k-20k or even 10k EVs with ranges of 400+ then they would take over. Till then, people will keep buying the 10k ICE cars for A to B travel. But again, I know almost nothing about this stuff soooo. I really think it would be super funny to roll up in a big ass fossil fueled truck to keep EVs running all day. Also curious if I'll see the prices of those fossil fuels fluctuate super high and then super low as EVs take over. Pretty sure I got another 40ish years in me barring any unfortunate mishaps lol.

 

[martinjlm]

I think the current EV owners are very similar the 4XX adjustable exhaust ICE owners. They are the enthusiasts, who understand the platform and the limits. Think about all the people who let their fuel light go on. Getting gas takes three minutes. Charging the car takes prior planning. Once a large number of non-enthusiasts get EV's, just think about how many will wind up stranded.

The $15k EV buyer is the prime customer for roadside recharging. Whether through their own negligence, or the corner cutting it took to get a cheaper EV out to the masses.

Exactly! That's why I chose that example. It fits most of us who post regularly here, but we are somewhere around 1% of the US car market. And guess what, EVs are about 1.5%.

By the way, the days of the $15k car are long gone, unless you're talking used. Car makers aren't even going to try to go there with EVs. No profit there. Starting point will remain in the low $30ks. Part of the reason I say ICE is not going away anytime soon.

 

[martinjlm]

Exactly! That's why I chose that example. It fits most of us who post regularly here, but we are somewhere around 1% of the US car market. And guess what, EVs are about 1.5%.

By the way, the days of the $15k car are long gone, unless you're talking used. Car makers aren't even going to try to go there with EVs. No profit there. Starting point will remain in the low $30ks. Part of the reason I say ICE is not going away anytime soon.

Ironically, as I was posting my last message, this came across my newsfeed.... VW's first long range BEV was "outted" by Chinese press. It'll look much the same when it lands in the US.

https://www.thedetroitbureau.com/2020/06/leaked-images-reveal-production-volkswagen-id-4-ev/
Range? 250 - 300 miles. Price? Around $30k.

 

[Sivi70980]

Exactly! That's why I chose that example. It fits most of us who post regularly here, but we are somewhere around 1% of the US car market. And guess what, EVs are about 1.5%.

By the way, the days of the $15k car are long gone, unless you're talking used. Car makers aren't even going to try to go there with EVs. No profit there. Starting point will remain in the low $30ks. Part of the reason I say ICE is not going away anytime soon.

My dad told me about something he saw on TV so I'll call in a future theory. Nobody will own cars anymore. Every commute to everywhere will be with a constant moving network of self driving cars. I use an app to call for a car to take me to work, that same car just dropped you off 3 blocks away and now picks me up. Then when I get out, it picks someone else up close by my work to take them to their destination. The cars will know when they need to go offline for cleaning/charging and will be replaced with one that just got serviced. Human driving will be banned due to upsetting the self driving network except for strips and tracks if they still exist. I believe that world will have a higher suicide rate but maybe offset by major decline of traffic accidents. I know I'd want to die if I couldn't drive my own damn car.

 

[martinjlm]

My dad told me about something he saw on TV so I'll call in a future theory. Nobody will own cars anymore. Every commute to everywhere will be with a constant moving network of self driving cars. I use an app to call for a car to take me to work, that same car just dropped you off 3 blocks away and now picks me up. Then when I get out, it picks someone else up close by my work to take them to their destination. The cars will know when they need to go offline for cleaning/charging and will be replaced with one that just got serviced. Human driving will be banned due to upsetting the self driving network except for strips and tracks if they still exist. I believe that world will have a higher suicide rate but maybe offset by major decline of traffic accidents. I know I'd want to die if I couldn't drive my own damn car.

Not gonna happen. There will be some self-driving transportation, but it will be the exception, not the rule. Autonomous vehicles will appear first in short range, repeatable route delivery functions. Then it will eventually take on longer routes, then add-in small group public transportation. This progression will take decades. Remember, hybrids were going to take over the industry in the early 90s (still waiting), then EVs in the 2010s (still waiting) then autonomous vehicles by 2020 - 2030 (don't hold your breathe).

Banning of personal driving is just not gonna happen. We'll get to a point where autonomous vehicles will share the road with people driving their own vehicles and nobody will be wierded out. The biggest investors in autonomous tech are companies like Uber and Lyft. That's because their single biggest operating cost is the carbon-based life form attached to the steering wheel. If they can eliminate that, they print money.

 

[IronG]

Exactly! That's why I chose that example. It fits most of us who post regularly here, but we are somewhere around 1% of the US car market. And guess what, EVs are about 1.5%.

By the way, the days of the $15k car are long gone, unless you're talking used. Car makers aren't even going to try to go there with EVs. No profit there. Starting point will remain in the low $30ks. Part of the reason I say ICE is not going away anytime soon.

One of the hurdles for EV's is the used car market. There are many more used cars purchased under 30k than all new purchases. Until the majority of new cars are EV only, the used car market will continue to thrive. The next generation of car buyers (kids 15 and under now) will drive the new market. The problem is that they may not want to spend a lot on a car purchase, so price will be a big priority. Maybe the stupid idea of "renting" a car for a day will take off, which I would assume would be an EV. That will help accelerate EV adoption.

martinjim, maybe you know the answer or have some insight on if all cars were EV's, is there enough rare earth materials etc available to build them? Also are the electric grids up to snuff to support all the charging?

 

[martinjlm]

One of the hurdles for EV's is the used car market. There are many more used cars purchased under 30k than all new purchases. Until the majority of new cars are EV only, the used car market will continue to thrive. The next generation of car buyers (kids 15 and under now) will drive the new market. The problem is that they may not want to spend a lot on a car purchase, so price will be a big priority. Maybe the stupid idea of "renting" a car for a day will take off, which I would assume would be an EV. That will help accelerate EV adoption.

martinjim, maybe you know the answer or have some insight on if all cars were EV's, is there enough rare earth materials etc available to build them? Also are the electric grids up to snuff to support all the charging?

I've never looked at it from that perspective because I know that automakers are constantly looking at reducing / eliminating rare earth materials and precious metals used in car systems. I had a second hand view of GM engineering a 90+% reduction of platinum in catalytic converters and licensing the IP to other catalytic converter manufacturers and to the emissions engineering staffs at other automakers. GM has already stated that the "million mile" battery that they are working on will reduce Cobalt content by something along the same lines and that their goal is 0 Cobalt. Tesla is working on similar measures.

I've approached it from the view of what it would take to convert ICE based vehicle plants to BEV assembly plants at volumes sufficient to replace similar volumes of ICE vehicles. In terms of time and $B, it is a formidable task. That's why I take all the automaker declarations of "This many EVs by that date" with a grain of salt.

 

[IronG]

I've never looked at it from that perspective because I know that automakers are constantly looking at reducing / eliminating rare earth materials and precious metals used in car systems. I had a second hand view of GM engineering a 90+% reduction of platinum in catalytic converters and licensing the IP to other catalytic converter manufacturers and to the emissions engineering staffs at other automakers. GM has already stated that the "million mile" battery that they are working on will reduce Cobalt content by something along the same lines and that their goal is 0 Cobalt. Tesla is working on similar measures.

I've approached it from the view of what it would take to convert ICE based vehicle plants to BEV assembly plants at volumes sufficient to replace similar volumes of ICE vehicles. In terms of time and $B, it is a formidable task. That's why I take all the automaker declarations of "This many EVs by that date" with a grain of salt.

Thanks for the info. It will be interesting to see the teardown of these new batteries. Hopefully they are made of common materials. If they are, the prices should come down significantly. Also, most of the EV's sold today will be obsolete compared to what will be around in a few years. I guess we will see a lot of Tesla's hitting the used car market. That could be a good thing though as there really isn't a good used market for EV's

 

[Cobra Jet]

Eh, here’s a perfect analogy for the ME:
Think of the MACHE as the 1986 Mercury Capri 5.0; it may have looked like, sounded like and had a 5.0, but it never was and never will be a Mustang... there is only ONE Mustang and the ME isn’t it.


—-
If Ford can’t get Ford Pass or SYNC to work correctly, what makes anyone think a full blown electric SUV with stolen naming and badges will be any better.... LMAO.

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