GM is pulling back on EVs

[sk47]

Back up your statements dude or walk away from them.

Hello; Guess I touched another nerve. Already backed up my statements. You may not pay attention, but i spend a lot of words myself. My stances generally come with plenty of explanation.
So, EV expert, you keep missing the point that if new ICE are banned from sale, then only the BEV's will be the only thing allowed to buy new. Maybe we could wind up like Cuba in the sense they have kept so many old 1950's cars going and create a market for older ICE. But your lot will try to ban gas and diesel before all is said and done.

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[sk47]

At best ill-informed conjecture. At worst total bullshit. There is already a significant and growing battery remanufacturing industry that will deliver reasonably priced replacement batteries for out of warranty. Additionally, battery manufacturers are following GM Ultium lead in designing batteries to be replaced at a module level instead of a complete pack replacement. The equivalent of replacing a cylinder head instead of a complete engine replacement as a close parallel.And yet…people are buying them. Without mandates. Go figure.

Hello; had to call this one. Give us the prices of these reasonably priced replacements batteries to be put in an 8+ year old vehicle.

Modular batteries are another "someday" thing for now.

 

[sk47]

So, 42,000 + people per month are guilted into buying a vehicle they wouldn’t otherwise purchase and have no mandate requiring them to purchase.. Ok, if that’s your best answer I guess we’ll just have to go with that.

Hello; Still trying to impress with numbers that pale when the overall is used. latest put BEV's at most at 6% of new buys. Seems that leaves 94% still buying ICE. May be worse if hybrids are counted in the 6%. So with all the new ads, magazine articles, mandates and save the planet rhetoric everywhere we look you still have only 6% market share. Ought to be more with that sort of push.
I will repeat my general stance on EV's in a later post ( IF I live) so to wipe away some of your unfounded assertions. Seems a few of us ordinary folks have gotten your goat a bit. You "experts" no longer get to dictate at us from on high.

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; Guess I touched another nerve.

In much the same way the random mosquito occasionally touches a nerve. Why do you ask. Is that what you’re going for?

Already backed up my statements. You may not pay attention, but i spend a lot of words myself. My stances generally come with plenty of explanation.
So, EV expert, you keep missing the point that if new ICE are banned from sale, then only the BEV's will be the only thing allowed to buy new. Maybe we could wind up like Cuba in the sense they have kept so many old 1950's cars going and create a market for older ICE. But your lot will try to ban gas and diesel before all is said and done.

For anyone on this thread that cares, here’s an example of why others in the industry describe me as an expert. This is a discussion with John McElroy, the recognized dean of automotive journalists, and two other industry experts on the future of ICE. I and some of my colleagues are occasionally asked to appear on John’s show to discuss hot topics in the industry. Experts from other data and consulting firms are also featured from time to time and most of us know each other and exchange information and opinions. John has daily broadcasts that provide a lot of really good info on what’s going on in the industry and weekly 1-hour panel discussions. Very much worth watching. Autoline.tv or find his channel on YouTube.

February 17, 2022 Autoline After Hours

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; had to call this one. Give us the prices of these reasonably priced replacements batteries to be put in an 8+ year old vehicle.

Modular batteries are another "someday" thing for now.

You could have googled this just as easy as I did.

Modular batteries are on the road now, so I guess someday is today.

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; Still trying to impress with numbers that pale when the overall is used. latest put BEV's at most at 6% of new buys. Seems that leaves 94% still buying ICE. May be worse if hybrids are counted in the 6%. So with all the new ads, magazine articles, mandates and save the planet rhetoric everywhere we look you still have only 6% market share. Ought to be more with that sort of push.
I will repeat my general stance on EV's in a later post ( IF I live) so to wipe away some of your unfounded assertions.

In January 2022, EVs were 4.3% of vehicles sold in the month. For the full year of 2022 EVs ended the year at 5.6% of total light duty vehicle market, meaning the market was constantly growing throughout the year.

In January 2023 EVs were 7.1%, a 61% growth rate over the same month last year. This means that the penetration rate of EVs is growing steadily. This is basic math.

Seems a few of us ordinary folks have gotten your goat a bit. You "experts" no longer get to dictate at us from on high.

Not really. Most of the guys on this thread seem to appreciate logic, even when we don’t agree. I rather enjoy trading opposing views of logic with people that have different opinions than my own. It’s how I learn. I’ve learned quite a bit from people in this thread and hopefully some here have learned a thing or two from me.

 

[kz]

This should hold true for 2 or 3%. The rest are buying out of guilt (killing the planet) Status, (look at meeee!) or fear, (ICE will be banned) or just plane out fun. (instant torque)

Two of these sound like the exact reason people buy Mustangs for, don't they ?

Fun and status.... Especially anything more than GT, even Bullit guys think they have something special because they've bought a green car, Mach 1 has stickers and that's also enough for some...
Not even speaking of guys over at EU where Mustang is a rarity...

 

[tripleyellowmustang]

That's a fallacy. In those countries that sell more electrics today, people buy them because the taxes imposed on ICE-equipped cars are preposterous. In Northern European countries you can pay as much in tax as you do for the car itself. A Mustang can easily get to cost you $100k or more.
Also, many people tend to shun products which they know will be discontinued or banned in the near future. Simply announcing the ban is enough to instill fear in them and cause them to buy something they otherwise wouldn't.
And then there are those who don't want to be seen as 'backwards' when their neighbours have already 'embraced the future'. Don't underestimate psychological pressure.
You can't conclude that most people want EVs based only on those figures alone.

Excellent points V.S. Taxes are obviously going to come into play for consumer auto purchases. Also, the psychological affect of an impending ban cannot be understated. I do agree with M.JLM that in the U.S. earlier adopters are purchasing EV’s because it fits their needs. As ban dates approach I believe there will be many consumers pressured into purchasing BEV for the reasons you pointed out. Hopefully technology will be such that the transition will be easier for some.

 

[K4fxd]

Two of these sound like the exact reason people buy Mustangs for, don't they ?

I don't have a problem with BEV's. A 9 second car off the showroom floor has it's appeal. When I'm in Florida I live in a community where golf carts are allowed on the roads. I use the BEV cart more than my mustang.

I do have a problem with with the mandates and forced ownership. Spin it however you like, telling people we cannot buy a "new ICE car" after a certain date is forcing us to buy an EV if we want a new car.

The argument comes back, well you can still keep your car or buy used.

Then thinking people stick a finger in the wind and figure sooner or later gas will also be banned........

 

[sk47]

In much the same way the random mosquito occasionally touches a nerve. Why do you ask. Is that what you’re going for?



For anyone on this thread that cares, here’s an example of why others in the industry describe me as an expert. This is a discussion with John McElroy, the recognized dean of automotive journalists, and two other industry experts on the future of ICE. I and some of my colleagues are occasionally asked to appear on John’s show to discuss hot topics in the industry. Experts from other data and consulting firms are also featured from time to time and most of us know each other and exchange information and opinions. John has daily broadcasts that provide a lot of really good info on what’s going on in the industry and weekly 1-hour panel discussions. Very much worth watching. Autoline.tv or find his channel on YouTube.

February 17, 2022 Autoline After Hours

Hello; Had the same sort of chest puffing during the Covid discussions. Best i recall it was Gregs reminding us of his medical background and expertise. Did not keep him from betting on the wrong horse on at least two major issues.
Have not looked at the link provided. I can make a determination from your posts.
I do not set out to touch a nerve or otherwise make a new voice uncomfortable. I also do not mind if such happens when i challenge or point out comments i find wrong or even false.

 

[sk47]

You could have googled this just as easy as I did.

Modular batteries are on the road now, so I guess someday is today.

Hello; Thanks for helping make my point. That being as part of regular maintenance the cost of a new battery pack ought to be included. I get that the early years of an EV will not have engine oil changes. BEVs will have most other vehicle maintenance issues. They will have coolant changes as they have a coolant system with a radiator. ( Note- At least the Nissan leaf does. I have not checked on all BEVs.)( I make a guess all will have to cool the battery packs during charging and discharge)
Brakes, suspension and other such running gear has to deal with increased weight so it is more than just tires which will be affected.
The thing I am challenging is the false premise that BEV's are a lot more maintenance free than the ICE they replace. Maybe up until the battery pack has issues. I do get that unexpected failures happen to an ICE and also can happen to a BEV. A thing is the batteries of an EV are known to slowly lose the capacity to recharge over time.
Seems to take a long time which is good. Hybrids batteries have held up well it seems. Part of the explanation I read is because the system will not allow the battery to discharge below a set point and only recharges to maybe 70% or so. That evidently keeps the battery is a sweet range for longer life.
A pure BEV can be kept in that sweet range if you do something similar. You do not charge to 100% capacity, stop at 70%, and you do not run it down to near zero discharge. Catch is this may help promote battery life but also limits useful battery range. So, if you have a 300 mile total range and charge to 70% you then have a potential of 210 miles.
But if you wish to have a battery pack live a lot of years you best not allow it to go to near zero. I am not the expert so will make a guess that say no lower than 20% could be a reasonable target. So maybe take off another 60 miles of range. Down to maybe 150 of that possible total range. Of course, you can go full charge and discharge I guess and plan on trading or selling before the warranty expires.

Even if you manage to protect the battery pack in all possible ways. No fast charge. No rapid discharge. No full 100% charge. No near zero discharge. (I imagine the systems will step in before the charge gets too low.) (The guy who sold me a new trolling motor battery warned me to not let it get to zero. Says the new chargers will not charge a zero battery.) Do the best you can, and the battery packs will lose a percentage of capacity to charge over time and use no matter what.

A long way around to support my contention replacing a battery pack ought to be factored in as part of regular maintenance costs. I get why the pro EV crew do not want to do that.
I also get you can avoid the replacement battery cost by trading early. But what happens to the trade in value? Will a dealer take a bit hit and give you a high value when you trade in a used EV? Something to think about.

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; Thanks for helping make my point. That being as part of regular maintenance the cost of a new battery pack ought to be included. I get that the early years of an EV will not have engine oil changes. BEVs will have most other vehicle maintenance issues. They will have coolant changes as they have a coolant system with a radiator. ( Note- At least the Nissan leaf does. I have not checked on all BEVs.)( I make a guess all will have to cool the battery packs during charging and discharge)

Cooling systems are present, are very different than ICE cooling systems and require different and less maintenance. Keep in mind that ICE cooling is as much about cooling the ICE where 40-60 percent of the energy consumed results in heat. EV cooling systems don’t have to deal with managing that amount of heat. For what it’s worth, the biggest weak point of the first generation Leaf was its battery cooling. They fixed it in the second gen.

Brakes, suspension and other such running gear has to deal with increased weight so it is more than just tires which will be affected.

Brake systems for EVs are significantly simplified compared to ICE. Much of the braking effort is performed by the electric motors reversing and acting as generators, simultaneously slowing the vehicle and returning energy back to the battery.

The thing I am challenging is the false premise that BEV's are a lot more maintenance free than the ICE they replace. Maybe up until the battery pack has issues. I do get that unexpected failures happen to an ICE and also can happen to a BEV. A thing is the batteries of an EV are known to slowly lose the capacity to recharge over time.
Seems to take a long time which is good. Hybrids batteries have held up well it seems. Part of the explanation I read is because the system will not allow the battery to discharge below a set point and only recharges to maybe 70% or so. That evidently keeps the battery is a sweet range for longer life.

EV manufacturers already account for that in the design of the battery. They reserve or block off a portion of the battery so that the vehicle owner is prevented from deep cycling the battery. The Mach E has two battery sizes… 75.7 kWh and 98.8 kWh. The 75.7 kWh battery has a usable capacity of 72 kWh. Meaning that at the point that the owner thinks they have zero battery capacity left, they actually have 3.7 kWh of buffer that they just can’t get to. The 98.8 kWh battery has 91 usable kWh and 7.8 kWh of buffer. This extends the life of the battery, even when occasionally using fast chargers.

A pure BEV can be kept in that sweet range if you do something similar. You do not charge to 100% capacity, stop at 70%, and you do not run it down to near zero discharge. Catch is this may help promote battery life but also limits useful battery range. So, if you have a 300 mile total range and charge to 70% you then have a potential of 210 miles.
But if you wish to have a battery pack live a lot of years you best not allow it to go to near zero. I am not the expert so will make a guess that say no lower than 20% could be a reasonable target. So maybe take off another 60 miles of range. Down to maybe 150 of that possible total range. Of course, you can go full charge and discharge I guess and plan on trading or selling before the warranty expires.

Even if you manage to protect the battery pack in all possible ways. No fast charge. No rapid discharge. No full 100% charge. No near zero discharge. (I imagine the systems will step in before the charge gets too low.) (The guy who sold me a new trolling motor battery warned me to not let it get to zero. Says the new chargers will not charge a zero battery.) Do the best you can, and the battery packs will lose a percentage of capacity to charge over time and use no matter what.

A long way around to support my contention replacing a battery pack ought to be factored in as part of regular maintenance costs. I get why the pro EV crew do not want to do that.
I also get you can avoid the replacement battery cost by trading early. But what happens to the trade in value? Will a dealer take a bit hit and give you a high value when you trade in a used EV? Something to think about.

I just explained above why this is not the case. If the batteries were unbuffered, this would be a scenario to be concerned about. But they are buffered, so no worries. Fast charging is not an issue. Too frequent use of fast charging would be an issue, but unless people drive 300 miles a day everyday, fast charging would be rather infrequent and relegated to periodic long trip incidences. For everyday commuting and task and errand running, Level 2 charging is more than sufficient.

 

[martinjlm]

I don't have a problem with BEV's. A 9 second car off the showroom floor has it's appeal. When I'm in Florida I live in a community where golf carts are allowed on the roads. I use the BEV cart more than my mustang.

I do have a problem with with the mandates and forced ownership. Spin it however you like, telling people we cannot buy a "new ICE car" after a certain date is forcing us to buy an EV if we want a new car.

The argument comes back, well you can still keep your car or buy used.

Then thinking people stick a finger in the wind and figure sooner or later gas will also be banned........

Maybe you can answer the question that SK47 won’t (or can’t)…

What mandates are in place that force people to buy EVs in the US in 2023? People who are buying more Teslas than F-150 are buying them because that’s what they want to buy, not because they are being forced to buy them.

 

[Burkey]

But your lot will try to ban gas and diesel before all is said and done.

I see you have your crystal ball working again.
Again, we can’t discuss what might happen “someday”, can we?

 

[K4fxd]

Maybe you can answer the question that SK47 won’t (or can’t)…

Read up a few posts you will find part of the reason posted by me.

The question has been answered many times, you just refuse to see it. There are no CURRENT mandates but they are close enough to cause people to fear the loss of ICE. Some will buy for this reason, I believe many that are returning to ICE are in this group.

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