GM is pulling back on EVs

[tripleyellowmustang]

Very good analysis tym. That’s been my point all along. Manufacturers have had several factors thrust upon them that have moved them towards EVs. China aside, most of the “mandates” have come after the manufacturers decided they were focusing on EV. The two biggest reasons are…

1. Automakers buy into the finding of the Paris Accord. Isn't the Paris Accord a mandate? Nope. It is voluntary guidance. Nobody has the power to enforce conformance or punish nonconformance. Those who track to the Paris Accord do so because they believe it to be the right thing to do.
2. Automakers know that there is a next wave of fuel economy regulations coming. Now those are mandates. Conform to the regulations or catch a hefty fine. Automakers recognize that they have already thrown tons of money at cleaning up ICE emissions and are completely out of low cost approaches. One way to avoid the cost of complying with the upcoming emissions mandates is to produce vehicles with no emissions.

People who buy EVs now buy them because they think they are the right vehicle for them. People who buy EVs are also the people who are most likely to re-purchase the same brand for their next vehicle.

Agreed. Concerning the Paris Accord I don’t believe automakers are switching to BEV for altruistic reasons; they have to chase the $$$ out of necessity. (I am not saying this is wrong, just the simple truth).

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[martinjlm]

What Percentage of US Car Sales Are Electric? (way.com)

“ Even though we do not have an exact number, there are around 284 million vehicles on US roads now. Among these, nearly 1.7 million are EVs. It means the percentage of electric cars in the United States is approximately 0.59%. “

“During the first quarter of 2022, the number of EV registrations increased by a whopping 60%.”

“During the different quarters of 2022, EV car sales saw a consistent improvement. The percentage of electric cars sold in the US is now 6%. A market share of 6% means, of all cars sold in 2022, 6% were electric vehicles of different segments. “

Hello; OH MY, which number should I use?

It’s actually quite simple to figure out which number(s) to use.

The blue numbers are based on all the vehicles registered for use in the US, regardless of model year. So my 1991 Toyota would be included in the 284 million number as well as your pickup truck and all the other vehicles you own.

The green numbers mean that if 1,000 EVs were registered in the 1st quarter of 2021, then 1,600 EVs were registered in the 1st quarter of 2022. A mathematical increase of 60% year over year.

The orange numbers mean that of all the vehicles sold in the US in 2022, 6% were EV. In 2021, EVs were 3.1% of US market share. In 2022 EVs were 5.6% (a 55% increase in share over 2021). For January 2023, EVs were at 7.1% market share, compared to 4.3% in January 2022. It is expected that by the end of 2023, EV market share may approach 10% of the market. That’s about triple what it was in 2021.

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; One of the other champions was doing the "he did not answer my question" bit for a while. I answered the question, as you say, with seven paragraphs. You come back with this silly bit about how i am to be specific about Tesla models. Getting deeper into the weeds.

By the way some "no new ICE sale" mandates start at 2030, under (6) years from now.

The first no new ICE mandate in the US is in 2035. There is one state that is looking at 2030 but they are being told (rightly so) that 2030 is functionally impossible. It is not law in that state yet. I forget which state and don’t feel like looking it up. So for the time being, the earliest US regulation is 2035. And then it’s for (3) states, not the entire country.

 

[Burkey]

It would be an 'and' situation if the powers that be weren't bent on banning the sale of new ICEs - which they are. It will be an either/or situation if they succeed - which they will. My best tool for the job might go extinct.

Um…..hybrids are still permitted under the mandates, are they not?

 

[martinjlm]

Um…..hybrids are still permitted under the mandates, are they not?

Depends on which mandate you’re talking about. California, for example, appears to have a loophole that will allow for plug-in hybrids that can operate with engine off for significant amounts of time. I’m not sure what countries like Norway or Sweden are doing. I think they are strictly zero emissions (that would rule out hybrids) but I’m not totally sure.

 

[Vlad Soare]

Meaning that people are buying them today because they want to, not because they have to.

That's a fallacy. In those countries that sell more electrics today, people buy them because the taxes imposed on ICE-equipped cars are preposterous. In Northern European countries you can pay as much in tax as you do for the car itself. A Mustang can easily get to cost you $100k or more.
Also, many people tend to shun products which they know will be discontinued or banned in the near future. Simply announcing the ban is enough to instill fear in them and cause them to buy something they otherwise wouldn't.
And then there are those who don't want to be seen as 'backwards' when their neighbours have already 'embraced the future'. Don't underestimate psychological pressure.
You can't conclude that most people want EVs based only on those figures alone.

 

[Vlad Soare]

Um…..hybrids are still permitted under the mandates, are they not?

Just for a while. It won't last long.
Besides, they may not always be the best tool for the job either.

 

[martinjlm]

That's a fallacy. In those countries that sell more electrics today, people buy them because the taxes imposed on ICE-equipped cars are preposterous. In Northern European countries you can pay as much in tax as you do for the car itself. A Mustang can easily get to cost you $100k or more.
Also, many people tend to shun products which they know will be discontinued or banned in the near future. Simply announcing the ban is enough to instill fear in them and cause them to buy something they otherwise wouldn't.
And then there are those who don't want to be seen as 'backwards' when their neighbours have already 'embraced the future'. Don't underestimate psychological pressure.
You can't conclude that most people want EVs based only on those figures alone.

In some other countries the part in bold holds true. I was asking about the US where there are no mandates in place, at least until SK47 chimes in with the list of mandates currently in place. Tesla Model Y is the #1 selling vehicle in the US. My question is “what are the mandates forcing people to buy EVs in the US?”.

People are buying roughly 27,000 Model Y per month. Those people have to have a reason for buying them. SK47 says it’s because of the mandates. I only ask which mandates? The earliest mandates become effective in 2035, so logic says a person buying a vehicle in 2023 isn’t trying to conform to a mandate that doesn’t happen for 12 years, unless I’m just totally missing something.

So, I’m saying that in the US, people are buying EVs in increasing numbers because those people prefer them.

 

[sk47]

So, the two things BEVs don’t already do better than ICE are the reasons that there should be no BEVs?
BEVs have lower fuel costs.
BEVs have lower maintenance costs (no oil changes, no spark plugs or air filters, no exhaust system, less stress on the braking system, much simpler propulsion system cooling, no emissions equipment to fail /replace)

• Acceleration

On the flip side, tire replacement costs will probably be higher with BEVs, since for the same physical size vehicles, BEVs will tend to be heavier, resulting in faster tire wear.

For some people owning a BEV will present an inconvenience if they can’t plug it in overnight.

Hello; You wish BEV' had only two shortcomings. Plenty about that already posted multiple times.

Hello; Never said there should be NO BEV's. For some on here I would figure they just cannot keep up, but since you present yourself as a gifted authority and word smith, I must figure the falsehood is deliberate.

Hello; BEV's have lower fuel costs in only one particular situation. That being if you are among the ones lucky enough to have a home charger. Public charging is shown to be more expensive that fueling an ICE. Add that some states already have taxes or fees aimed at BEV's to make up for the fuel taxes lost at the pump.
Let me add a bit of speculation on future fuel costs. Since the EV push is accelerating way ahead of grid performance upgrades there will be a demand for electric power which cannot be met.
Two things might happen. One is the power companies likely will have to do expensive work to try to keep up with demand. This will be paid for by the customers directly or indirectly if governments subsidize with taxpayer monies. Another likely scenario is a common supply -demand equation.

Hello; BEV's will not necessarily have lower maintaince cost over the life of the vehicle. No oil changes to be sure. Fewer moving parts to be sure. However some large costs loom. Likely the bigger being the cost of a battery pack after warranty miles/time. Best scenario currently is a sound older BEV chassis needing a battery pack will be a throwaway. Got to figure having to trash a good chassis will add to the overall EV experience cost. As you say tires will cost more over time and the BEV will use up more if them. I also wonder how the heavier BEV will hold up hitting potholes?

Hello; One more bit about coast. Even with state & federal incentives the BEV's cost more than an equivalent ICE. Many BEV's will not get the incentives in the USA now. That extra upfront cost has to be averaged into overall operating costs. Likely cost per mile being the better way to figure this out.

Hello; Acceleration is a main advantage of an EV over ICE. BEV's get that one.

 

[sk47]

That's a fallacy. In those countries that sell more electrics today, people buy them because the taxes imposed on ICE-equipped cars are preposterous. In Northern European countries you can pay as much in tax as you do for the car itself. A Mustang can easily get to cost you $100k or more.
Also, many people tend to shun products which they know will be discontinued or banned in the near future. Simply announcing the ban is enough to instill fear in them and cause them to buy something they otherwise wouldn't.
And then there are those who don't want to be seen as 'backwards' when their neighbours have already 'embraced the future'. Don't underestimate psychological pressure.
You can't conclude that most people want EVs based only on those figures alone.

Hello; Thank you for expressing what i tried to say so much better. Psychological pressure has to be a main aspect of the save the world-buy an EV campaign. We are to feel guilty if we buy an ICE. Now i begin to understand why Burkey is so troubled when i congratulate him for buying an ICE. His ( Burkey) reaction may be a reaction to the pressure.

 

[sk47]

In some other countries the part in bold holds true. I was asking about the US where there are no mandates in place, at least until SK47 chimes in with the list of mandates currently in place. Tesla Model Y is the #1 selling vehicle in the US. My question is “what are the mandates forcing people to buy EVs in the US?”.

People are buying roughly 27,000 Model Y per month. Those people have to have a reason for buying them. SK47 says it’s because of the mandates. I only ask which mandates? The earliest mandates become effective in 2035, so logic says a person buying a vehicle in 2023 isn’t trying to conform to a mandate that doesn’t happen for 12 years, unless I’m just totally missing something.

So, I’m saying that in the US, people are buying EVs in increasing numbers because those people prefer them.

Hello; One of your fellows, Jtmat maybe, tried the "answer my question in only the way i dictate" ploy a few times. Maybe some others as well. I see it as part of an effort to control the narrative. Has happened often enough the last years. You do not get to dictate how these conversations go.
You are trying to be cute , but are actually being deceptive. The mandates do not say we must buy any BEV's. They say no new ICE can be sold. You know this already or I am giving you too much credit for smarts. If we cannot buy a new ICE and the only new vehicles for sale are BEV's then a bit of logic ought to kick in for you. If this is the best "got you" you can come up with, such is a shame.

 

[K4fxd]

So, I’m saying that in the US, people are buying EVs in increasing numbers because those people prefer them.

This should hold true for 2 or 3%. The rest are buying out of guilt (killing the planet) Status, (look at meeee!) or fear, (ICE will be banned) or just plane out fun. (instant torque)

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; You wish BEV' had only two shortcomings. Plenty about that already posted multiple times.
Hello; Never said there should be NO BEV's. For some on here I would figure they just cannot keep up, but since you present yourself as a gifted authority and word smith, I must figure the falsehood is deliberate.

The post was not directed towards you. You say I present myself as a gifted authority. What I am is a recognized expert in the auto industry with respect to EVs and other technologies. As for “word smith” that’s your own bullshit assessment. You don’t know me well enough o tell anybody who or what I am beyond what I tell you I am.

Hello; BEV's have lower fuel costs in only one particular situation. That being if you are among the ones lucky enough to have a home charger. Public charging is shown to be more expensive that fueling an ICE. Add that some states already have taxes or fees aimed at BEV's to make up for the fuel taxes lost at the pump.
Let me add a bit of speculation on future fuel costs. Since the EV push is accelerating way ahead of grid performance upgrades there will be a demand for electric power which cannot be met.
Two things might happen. One is the power companies likely will have to do expensive work to try to keep up with demand. This will be paid for by the customers directly or indirectly if governments subsidize with taxpayer monies. Another likely scenario is a common supply -demand equation.
Hello; BEV's will not necessarily have lower maintaince cost over the life of the vehicle. No oil changes to be sure. Fewer moving parts to be sure. However some large costs loom. Likely the bigger being the cost of a battery pack after warranty miles/time. Best scenario currently is a sound older BEV chassis needing a battery pack will be a throwaway. Got to figure having to trash a good chassis will add to the overall EV experience cost.

At best ill-informed conjecture. At worst total bullshit. There is already a significant and growing battery remanufacturing industry that will deliver reasonably priced replacement batteries for out of warranty. Additionally, battery manufacturers are following GM Ultium lead in designing batteries to be replaced at a module level instead of a complete pack replacement. The equivalent of replacing a cylinder head instead of a complete engine replacement as a close parallel.

As you say tires will cost more over time and the BEV will use up more if them. I also wonder how the heavier BEV will hold up hitting potholes?
Hello; One more bit about coast. Even with state & federal incentives the BEV's cost more than an equivalent ICE. Many BEV's will not get the incentives in the USA now. That extra upfront cost has to be averaged into overall operating costs. Likely cost per mile being the better way to figure this out.
Hello; Acceleration is a main advantage of an EV over ICE. BEV's get that one.

And yet…people are buying them. Without mandates. Go figure.

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; Thank you for expressing what i tried to say so much better. Psychological pressure has to be a main aspect of the save the world-buy an EV campaign. We are to feel guilty if we buy an ICE. Now i begin to understand why Burkey is so troubled when i congratulate him for buying an ICE. His ( Burkey) reaction may be a reaction to the pressure.

So, 42,000 + people per month are guilted into buying a vehicle they wouldn’t otherwise purchase and have no mandate requiring them to purchase.. Ok, if that’s your best answer I guess we’ll just have to go with that.

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; One of your fellows, Jtmat maybe, tried the "answer my question in only the way i dictate" ploy a few times. Maybe some others as well. I see it as part of an effort to control the narrative. Has happened often enough the last years. You do not get to dictate how these conversations go.
You are trying to be cute , but are actually being deceptive. The mandates do not say we must buy any BEV's. They say no new ICE can be sold. You know this already or I am giving you too much credit for smarts. If we cannot buy a new ICE and the only new vehicles for sale are BEV's then a bit of logic ought to kick in for you. If this is the best "got you" you can come up with, such is a shame.

You mean like the same bullshit game you’re running with Burkey when he was very clear on why he made the purchase he made? Ok, I’ll go with that. With one major difference…he actually answered your question. I’m still anxiously waiting for your pearls of wisdom as to why 27,000 people a month buy Tesla Model Y and another 15,000 per month buy Tesla Model 3 when there are no mandates forcing them to do so. That or point out what those mandates are. If we go back a few pages you clearly stated multiple times that the only reason people would buy BEV and the only reason automakers are producing BEV is that they are mandated to do so, yet you can’t name one mandate that applies to all these vehicles purchased in 2023. Back up your statements dude or walk away from them.

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