GM is pulling back on EVs

[K4fxd]

All this talk about “mandate”. Today BEV sales are increasing at double digit rates year over year (CAGR is 22%).

I suppose statistics can be made to say anything. I have posted studies that show most current BEV owners are trading back to gas or hybrids.,

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[sk47]

All this talk about “mandate”. Today BEV sales are increasing at double digit rates year over year (CAGR is 22%). Two of the top 10 selling vehicles in the country are BEV, including the number 1 selling vehicle. What are the “mandates” in place today forcing people to buy these cars?

Hello; I guess if you are the sort on the interstate who waits till the last few feet to merge after seeing the lane closed signs for a few miles. If so, then i can follow your statement.

All this talk of mandates and the "war" on fossil fuels has even me examining the options. I can wait till the last year or so to get a new ICE and then hope there will be gas/diesel around to fuel them. I understand the agenda is more than just pushing EV's. There is also a push to limit gas/diesel as well as to make them much more expensive. The powers that be may make it too expensive to run an ICE, at least that is the avowed goal.
So, seeds of fear are being sowed about having an ICE over the near time frame.

Then there are the slick talkers and writers who are polishing the BEV's and making them out to be more than they actually are. Your more recent poste are prime examples. You try to make it seem the BEV's are just fine. That the issues are insignificant. (if you challenge this point I will copy and paste from your latest comments to rebut.) Not everyone has the time or inclination to dig into the issues deeply. Some will take you word for things.
Add to this all the slick ads in the magazines and on TV. The manufactures are in a spot. They have to design and build BEV's in order to have product to sell when the mandates actually kick in. Takes years to switch over for the anticipated volume. So, they advertise heavily to try to get folks to buy something worse than the ICE it will replace. A tough task.
So, some will think a BEV is an equal replacement for an ICE.

In order to make BEV's factory floor space which use to make ICE has had to be changed over for the BEV's. A lot of the models of ICE have and are being dropped. Ford focus for example. The Focus and Fiesta were low profit models which help the CAFE (fuel) averages. Now the BEV's take those slots. So ICE models I would have bought are gone, which may push some into a BEV with a false promise of economy added to the deal. ( note- we now know that the EPA numbers are off for the BEV's a lot. They are not getting the equivalent MPG advertised. )
So, fewer ICE model choices might send some shopping a BEV.

But i get it. Just as Burkey and a few others argued during the Covid shot mandates. That we were not actually being forced into something we might not want. Sure, losing your job or being kicked out of the service is not a from of force. You seem to be saying that because the deadline date on these mandates is not here just yet that they are not having an effect. yet you write volumes here and likely other places pushing the agendas.
So, just knowing of the looming mandates will influence some folks to "get it over with."

Best evidence of all is the way you always try to play up EV sales based on a recent increase in percentages the last couple of years. Best i know is still only around 5% of folks in the USA have an EV.
But you are tasked with peddling the fantasy and actually do a decent job. Your problem is some easier than selling snow to an Eskimo, to be sure.

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; Whether the BEV is a coupe, SUV or convertible is a silly peg to hang that hat on. Does not matter the style of the BEV, more can it do what an ICE does with ease.

So, the two things BEVs don’t already do better than ICE are the reasons that there should be no BEVs?

ICE are better at driving distances over 300 miles.
BEVs can do it, but ICE can do it better. No argument there. But most people do not drive 300 miles in a single day more than 2-3 times a year. The only thing needed to make BEVs more competitive there is more infrastructure. That’s something that is improving on a daily basis.

ICE are better at towing heavy loads.
No argument here. It’ll probably be a while before BEV are competitive here, at least for passenger vehicles. But, again, most people don’t tow anything. Those who do are probably better off with an ICE for the time being.

But when you break it down to the things that most people use their vehicles for on a daily basis, BEVs have several significant advantages.

• BEVs have lower fuel costs.
• BEVs have lower maintenance costs (no oil changes, no spark plugs or air filters, no exhaust system, less stress on the braking system, much simpler propulsion system cooling, no emissions equipment to fail /replace)
• Acceleration
  

For the way most people use their vehicles, BEV vs ICE doesn’t matter at all. Transporting people and stuff from Point A to Point B. Both energy systems do it well enough that it’s just a matter of preference.

On the flip side, tire replacement costs will probably be higher with BEVs, since for the same physical size vehicles, BEVs will tend to be heavier, resulting in faster tire wear.

For some people owning a BEV will present an inconvenience if they can’t plug it in overnight. Those people shouldn’t buy BEV until that issue is resolved.

Hello; 300 mile range is not much for a semi. Might work if every offload spot had scores of chargers ready and open. Another someday thing. Get back when a driver can flip a coin to decide about which tractor to use to haul 30,000 pounds of steel 2,000 miles. By flip a coin I mean it wont make any difference if the tractor is BEV or ICE.
Hello; The 300 mile range is more like 210 miles if you only charge to 70% at a fast charger. The 70% charge is a limit to keep from doing damage to the battery.
Hello; The idea that the trucks can charge while the drivers sleep is a good sound bite. I have seen the stops full of parked rigs over the years. I do not travel so much any more so may have missed the rows of chargers to service all those trucks. Won't help the team drivers who switch out driving and sleeping in the back while keeping the rig going. Oh. Oh. I forget the big over the road BEV's do not yet have capacity to haul much weight.

FWIW - the FIL whose pickup I have access to is a retired OTR trucker. Now he drives a Bolt EUV and saves the F-150 for when he needs to tow or haul. Between him and some of the companies I currently do consulting work for I’ve learned quite a bit about OTR trucking, sleeper cabs, and refueling habits. My FIL was an independent with his own tractor with sleeper cab. This is something that is becoming more common. He did not do team driving and often camped out at large truck stops and slept in his sleeper compartment. He says that this is very common. The types of loads he drove would not work well with today’s BEV semis because he pulled a lot of weight. Primarily car parts from Michigan to Texas. On those runs he would hit max weight. But quite often his return routes were consumer goods where he would cube out the trailer without coming anywhere near his weight limits. Those are the routes where we’ll see BEV semis replacing diesel.

Just like every pickup truck doesn’t need to be capable of towing a boat or horse trailer (most aren’t capable), every semi doesn’t need to be capable of towing 20 tons of car parts. Some need only carry 2 tons of random consumer goods boxes (Amazon, FedEx) or groceries (PepsiCo, Kroger).

If you’re a semi manufacturer, you develop BEV tractors for those smaller jobs but you don’t completely replace your portfolio with BEV semis. Daimler, Volvo, Peterbilt, Kenworth all are coming to market with BEV semi to handle consumer goods hauling, both intrastate and interstate but they are not abandoning diesel semis for heavier loads and/or longer routes.

If you are a business operating or hiring a truck fleet, using BEV semis to haul trailers full of consumer goods that fill the volume of the trailer but are way under the weight limits makes total sense. The energy costs (single biggest expense for OTR) is much less with BEV compared to diesel. For heavier loads you still need diesel.

It’s not an “either/or“ situation, it’s an “and” situation. Best tool for the job. If interstate hydrogen fueling ever takes hold, that’s when we’ll see the end of diesel semis.

 

[martinjlm]

All this talk about “mandate”. Today BEV sales are increasing at double digit rates year over year (CAGR is 22%). Two of the top 10 selling vehicles in the country are BEV, including the number 1 selling vehicle. What are the “mandates” in place today forcing people to buy these cars?

I suppose statistics can be made to say anything. I have posted studies that show most current BEV owners are trading back to gas or hybrids.,

So are you now saying that monthly sales figures that have been published every month since Moby Dick was a minnow are now just statistics that “can be made to say anything.” Riiight. So Tesla Model Y outselling F-150, Silverado, Ram 1500 are just twisted statistic. Got it.

Regarding “I have posted studies that show most current BEV owners are trading back to gas or hybrids.,” I’ll just post links to these studies and let others that read this post draw their own conclusions…

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...at-the-top-in-loyalty-ford-drops/69946513007/

https://www.autonews.com/marketing/why-teslas-loyalty-rate-ominous-rest-auto-industry (FWIW, Automotive News is the “Wall Street Journal“ of the auto industry. Super credible)

https://www.businessinsider.com/evs-shred-brand-loyalty-automakers-spent-decades-building-2022-12

https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/e...et-share-soar-but-dominance-of-ev-segmen.html

Full disclosure, the last article is from my company and the author is a co-worker on the same staff I work in. But he is also the recognized industry expert on vehicle brand loyalty and his work in that area is republished multiple times, even by rival companies (with permission of course). So, if most of the EVs sold in the US are Tesla, and Tesla has the highest loyalty rates in the industry BY A LOT, then how is it it that most EV buyers are buying something other than EVs? Most Tesla buyers buy another Tesla, which only makes EVs.

 

[martinjlm]

Hello; I guess if you are the sort on the interstate who waits till the last few feet to merge after seeing the lane closed signs for a few miles. If so, then i can follow your statement.

All this talk of mandates and the "war" on fossil fuels has even me examining the options. I can wait till the last year or so to get a new ICE and then hope there will be gas/diesel around to fuel them. I understand the agenda is more than just pushing EV's. There is also a push to limit gas/diesel as well as to make them much more expensive. The powers that be may make it too expensive to run an ICE, at least that is the avowed goal.
So, seeds of fear are being sowed about having an ICE over the near time frame.

Then there are the slick talkers and writers who are polishing the BEV's and making them out to be more than they actually are. Your more recent poste are prime examples. You try to make it seem the BEV's are just fine. That the issues are insignificant. (if you challenge this point I will copy and paste from your latest comments to rebut.) Not everyone has the time or inclination to dig into the issues deeply. Some will take you word for things.
Add to this all the slick ads in the magazines and on TV. The manufactures are in a spot. They have to design and build BEV's in order to have product to sell when the mandates actually kick in. Takes years to switch over for the anticipated volume. So, they advertise heavily to try to get folks to buy something worse than the ICE it will replace. A tough task.
So, some will think a BEV is an equal replacement for an ICE.

In order to make BEV's factory floor space which use to make ICE has had to be changed over for the BEV's. A lot of the models of ICE have and are being dropped. Ford focus for example. The Focus and Fiesta were low profit models which help the CAFE (fuel) averages. Now the BEV's take those slots. So ICE models I would have bought are gone, which may push some into a BEV with a false promise of economy added to the deal. ( note- we now know that the EPA numbers are off for the BEV's a lot. They are not getting the equivalent MPG advertised. )
So, fewer ICE model choices might send some shopping a BEV.

But i get it. Just as Burkey and a few others argued during the Covid shot mandates. That we were not actually being forced into something we might not want. Sure, losing your job or being kicked out of the service is not a from of force. You seem to be saying that because the deadline date on these mandates is not here just yet that they are not having an effect. yet you write volumes here and likely other places pushing the agendas.
So, just knowing of the looming mandates will influence some folks to "get it over with."

Best evidence of all is the way you always try to play up EV sales based on a recent increase in percentages the last couple of years. Best i know is still only around 5% of folks in the USA have an EV.
But you are tasked with peddling the fantasy and actually do a decent job. Your problem is some easier than selling snow to an Eskimo, to be sure.

Me: What are the mandates?
SK47: Seven paragraphs. No identification of mandates.

 

[Vlad Soare]

It’s not an “either/or“ situation, it’s an “and” situation. Best tool for the job.

It would be an 'and' situation if the powers that be weren't bent on banning the sale of new ICEs - which they are. It will be an either/or situation if they succeed - which they will. My best tool for the job might go extinct.

 

[martinjlm]

It would be an 'and' situation if the powers that be weren't bent on banning the sale of new ICEs - which they are. It will be an either/or situation if they succeed - which they will. My best tool for the job might go extinct.

I asked SK47 to name what mandates are forcing people to make the Tesla Model Y the #1 selling vehicle in America and Tesla Model 3 the #10. Surely these people are only buying the vehicles in 2023 for something other than a California ban that doesn’t take effect for 12 years from now. So far SK47 has not identified the mandate that’s making people buy EVs today. Maybe you can take a shot at it.

 

[tripleyellowmustang]

Me: What are the mandates?
SK47: Seven paragraphs. No identification of mandates.

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2021/01/Country-ICE-GasDiesel-Car-Bans.png View attachment 757554

Me: What are the mandates?
SK47: Seven paragraphs. No identification of mandates.

A 2021 list of cities and countries with some sort of future ban of ICE vehicles. I am sure this list has been added to or changed since that time. Once China and Europe decided to ban ICE vehicles in the neat future, car manufacturers were given their marching orders. It is naive to think that manufacturers are switching to BEV for altruistic reasons. The consumer knowing that manufactures are switching to BEV have to then make a decision of whether to stay with ICE or switch to BEV. This leaves many consumers being pushed into BEV, due to concerns of maintenance, parts and supply chains.

 

[martinjlm]

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2021/01/Country-ICE-GasDiesel-Car-Bans.png View attachment 757554


A 2021 list of cities and countries with some sort of future ban of ICE vehicles. I am sure this list has been added to or changed since that time. Once China and Europe decided to ban ICE vehicles in the neat future, car manufacturers were given their marching orders. It is naive to think that manufacturers are switching to BEV for altruistic reasons. The consumer knowing that manufactures are switching to BEV have to then make a decision of whether to stay with ICE or switch to BEV. This leaves many consumers being pushed into BEV, due to concerns of maintenance, parts and supply chains.

Thanks tripleyellowmustang. The earliest mandate listed is for 2025 in countries that are already selling more BEV than ICE. Meaning that people are buying them today because they want to, not because they have to. So what is making people buy more Tesla Model Y than Ford F-150 in 2023? The earliest mandate in the US takes effect in 3 states (California, Washington, and I think New York) in 2035. So why would people buy a car in 2023, that they will probably not even still own in 2035 because of a mandate that doesn’t start until 2035. The answer is, because they perceive it to be a better product, a better value, or both.

 

[K4fxd]

https://electrek.co/2023/01/30/tesla-bursts-into-top-10-best-selling-cars-world-industry-scared/

Top comment by Jose Pontes
Liked by 30 people

Amazing how no one realizes that the Tesla numbers in the table don't add up.

According to the table, the Tesla Model Y had 759k deliveries in 2022, and the Model 3, 596k.

Adding both together, we get 1.355 million units.

But according to Tesla's own numbers, they delivered 1.31 million units in 2022, including Tesla Model S and Model X...

I have not crunched the numbers but I know how numbers can be skewed.

 

[tripleyellowmustang]

Thanks tripleyellowmustang. The earliest mandate listed is for 2025 in countries that are already selling more BEV than ICE. Meaning that people are buying them today because they want to, not because they have to. So what is making people buy more Tesla Model Y than Ford F-150 in 2023? The earliest mandate in the US takes effect in 3 states (California, Washington, and I think New York) in 2035. So why would people buy a car in 2023, that they will probably not even still own in 2035 because of a mandate that doesn’t start until 2035. The answer is, because they perceive it to be a better product, a better value, or both.

Consumers are keeping their vehicles longer, 12.5 years in the U.S. https://www.reuters.com/business/au...icles-record-125-years-average-sp-2023-05-15/
Of course there are consumers who are voluntarily switching to BEV’s as it fits their needs and views on the environment. Consumers know that auto manufactures are switching to BEV, why would Ford, GM and Stellantis risk losing billions of dollars in initial investments if they weren’t. Manufacturers were given their marching orders once China and Europe began implementing mandate timelines. Since the consumer knows that the trend is toward BEV, that is what more and more people will buy; manufactures will increase BEV models, as ICE vehicles models decline. When consumers are bombarded with this push towards BEV’s and read about mandates, it influences their decision making process. As I stated earlier consumers will have to consider parts, maintenance and supply chains in the future. What you perceive as voluntary is different from my perception. BEV’s still make up a small percentage of purchases in the U.S., but obviously this will increase in time, especially as the mandates go into affect. My point is that it will not be strictly a voluntary transition for many, otherwise there would be no need for mandates.

 

[sk47]

What Percentage of US Car Sales Are Electric? (way.com)

“ Even though we do not have an exact number, there are around 284 million vehicles on US roads now. Among these, nearly 1.7 million are EVs. It means the percentage of electric cars in the United States is approximately 0.59%. “

“During the first quarter of 2022, the number of EV registrations increased by a whopping 60%.”

“During the different quarters of 2022, EV car sales saw a consistent improvement. The percentage of electric cars sold in the US is now 6%. A market share of 6% means, of all cars sold in 2022, 6% were electric vehicles of different segments. “

Hello; OH MY, which number should I use?

 

[martinjlm]

https://electrek.co/2023/01/30/tesla-bursts-into-top-10-best-selling-cars-world-industry-scared/

Top comment by Jose Pontes
Liked by 30 people

Amazing how no one realizes that the Tesla numbers in the table don't add up.

According to the table, the Tesla Model Y had 759k deliveries in 2022, and the Model 3, 596k.

Adding both together, we get 1.355 million units.

But according to Tesla's own numbers, they delivered 1.31 million units in 2022, including Tesla Model S and Model X...

I have not crunched the numbers but I know how numbers can be skewed.

Are they both talking model year or is one talking calendar year? Are they both talking units sold or is one of them talking units produced? Those would be 4 different sets of numbers. Either way, the figures for top selling vehicles are done by the same independent third parties that have been doing it for years. I doubt that they suddenly forgot how to count.

 

[sk47]

I asked SK47 to name what mandates are forcing people to make the Tesla Model Y the #1 selling vehicle in America and Tesla Model 3 the #10. Surely these people are only buying the vehicles in 2023 for something other than a California band that doesn’t take effect for 12 years from now. So far SK47 has not identified the mandate that’s making people buy EVs today. Maybe you can take a shot at it.

Hello; One of the other champions was doing the "he did not answer my question" bit for a while. I answered the question, as you say, with seven paragraphs. You come back with this silly bit about how i am to be specific about Tesla models. Getting deeper into the weeds.

By the way some "no new ICE sale" mandates start at 2030, under (6) years from now.

 

[martinjlm]

Consumers are keeping their vehicles longer, 12.5 years in the U.S. https://www.reuters.com/business/au...icles-record-125-years-average-sp-2023-05-15/
Of course there are consumers who are voluntarily switching to BEV’s as it fits their needs and views on the environment. Consumers know that auto manufactures are switching to BEV, the handwriting is already on the wall, why would Ford, GM and Stellantis risk losing billions of dollars in initial investments if they weren’t. Manufacturers were given their marching orders once China and Europe began implementing mandate timelines. Since the consumer knows that the trend is toward BEV, that is what more and more people will buy; manufactures will increase BEV models, as ICE vehicles models decline. When consumers are bombarded with this push towards BEV’s and read about mandates, it influences their decision making process. As I stated earlier consumers will have to consider parts, maintenance and supply chains in the future. What you perceive as voluntary is different from my perception. BEV’s still make up a small percentage of purchases in the U.S., but obviously this will increase in time, especially as the mandates go into affect. My point is that it will not be strictly a voluntary transition for many.

Very good analysis tym. That’s been my point all along. Manufacturers have had several factors thrust upon them that have moved them towards EVs. China aside, most of the “mandates” have come after the manufacturers decided they were focusing on EV. The two biggest reasons are…

1. Automakers buy into the finding of the Paris Accord. Isn't the Paris Accord a mandate? Nope. It is voluntary guidance. Nobody has the power to enforce conformance or punish nonconformance. Those who track to the Paris Accord do so because they believe it to be the right thing to do.
2. Automakers know that there is a next wave of fuel economy regulations coming. Now those are mandates. Conform to the regulations or catch a hefty fine. Automakers recognize that they have already thrown tons of money at cleaning up ICE emissions and are completely out of low cost approaches. One way to avoid the cost of complying with the upcoming emissions mandates is to produce vehicles with no emissions.

People who buy EVs now buy them because they think they are the right vehicle for them. People who buy EVs are also the people who are most likely to re-purchase the same brand for their next vehicle.

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