Ford marries Tesla? God help us all.

[shogun32]

Hmmmm, doesn't stock investing carry a similar-sounding caveat?

Nope, the Fed said the stock market will never go down. That they won't permit it to ever go down in any real sense. But I want to know how are they gonna bring on the return of the 11th Imam, er I meant the Global Reset without destroying the net worth of a couple billion plebes and sheep?

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[Norm Peterson]

Nope, the Fed said the stock market will never go down. That they won't permit it to ever go down in any real sense. But I want to know how are they gonna bring on the return of the 11th Imam, er I meant the Global Reset without destroying the net worth of a couple billion plebes and sheep?

The market as a whole, sure. But not individual stocks. Past performance not being a guarantee of future performance still applies, and Tesla isn't an exception.


Norm

 

[martinjlm]

There's a lot right and a little bit wrong with Tesla. The overall design and intent of their cars and utilities is pretty good. Especially considering they first appeared when the typical electric car was a compliance inspired science experiment. They actually started out with a cool fun to drive roadster, then a big luxury sedan. On the other hand, their build quality is below par compared to traditional car manufacturers. But they'll get that together. In my opinion, TSLA is still a solid investment. I don't see them joining up at an equity level with any other automaker. That would dilute the value too much. It would shift Tesla from being considered a tech company (high value, high margin) to being a manufacturing company (moderate value, low margin). I could see them entering into a contracted agreement where a more established manufacturing company assembles cars for them.

I bought a bunch of Tesla stock when COVID hit. I had been watching it for about a year but never put any money into it until then. COVID hit and the stock tanked for a couple weeks. The price drop was due to circumstances unrelated to their running of the business, I bought a bunch of shares. Bought a number of other stocks that were in a similar situation. Since then that whole group of stocks has shot up. A couple months ago, Tesla did a 5:1 stock split. After the split, my average cost of purchase is a bit over $94 per share. Yesterday it closed at $649. Sure, today it closed $45 lower, but I'm still a little bit ahead.

 

[shogun32]

average cost of purchase is a bit over $94 per share. Yesterday it closed at $649. Sure, today it closed $45 lower, but I'm still a little bit ahead.

time to sell and get the bank to issue your winnings in $5 so you can have your own money tornado and 2 inches thick layer on the king size mattress.

 

[martinjlm]

time to sell and get the bank to issue your winnings in $5 so you can have your own money tornado and 2 inches thick layer on the king size mattress.

Holding out for $780

 

[Rinzler]

What I want or don't want has nothing to do with the value of Tesla being as speculative as it is.

The products themselves do leave a good bit to be desired in several respects.

Teslas may be relatively popular in a few local regions, but that's not the same thing as "The popularity of Tesla vehicles is very real". While I never took Tesla to be a fad, it is the kind of product that is going to attract a lot of early adopters for reasons quite separate from actual product goodness, and that needs to be considered carefully if you're going to try to use their past sales performance to predict their future. Hmmmm, doesn't stock investing carry a similar-sounding caveat?


Norm

You're treating Tesla like they haven't already proven their brand and products are viable. No auto maker makes the perfect vehicle, and it's silly to use that as a benchmark. All automakers would fail that benchmark.

Tesla went public over 10 years ago. If this were the days of the Tesla Roadster, then the speculation is warranted. However, Tesla delivered 367,500 cars in 2019 and most of them were Model 3s. They are a valid automaker by any stretch of the definition and growing at that.

Moreover, by that logic we would need to reconsider many auto manufacturers like Jaguar Land Rover, Mitsubishi, and Volvo as their sales numbers are much lower.

Why do people want Tesla to fail, so badly? It's like being addicted to be on the wrong side of history.

 

[Norm Peterson]

You're treating Tesla like they haven't already proven their brand and products are viable. No auto maker makes the perfect vehicle, and it's silly to use that as a benchmark. All automakers would fail that benchmark.

Tesla went public over 10 years ago. If this were the days of the Tesla Roadster, then the speculation is warranted. However, Tesla delivered 367,500 cars in 2019 and most of them were Model 3s. They are a valid automaker by any stretch of the definition and growing at that.

Valid as a mfr - sure, I can live with that.

More valuable than the car mfr that sells roughly 30 times as many cars a year, no way. Like I say, speculative.

Why do people want Tesla to fail, so badly? It's like being addicted to be on the wrong side of history.

Personally, I'm not looking for them to fail.

On the other hand I don't think I want to see them become so wildly successful that the ICE choice disappears as "collateral damage".


Norm

 

[Rinzler]

Valid as a mfr - sure, I can live with that.

More valuable than the car mfr that sells roughly 30 times as many cars a year, no way. Like I say, speculative.



Personally, I'm not looking for them to fail.

On the other hand I don't think I want to see them become so wildly successful that the ICE choice disappears as "collateral damage".


Norm

Don't blame Tesla for that. They are a response to the market pressures and market demands. Like the "horse" option disappeared, so too will ICE engines. Porsche is doing some interesting things, however. They've developed a synthetic fuel with Siemens to keep ICE cars (as classics) on the road as they themselves transition to electric propulsion.

ICE vehicles are on the way out. Not in the near-term, but they're going to go. It's just what's going to happen. I'm excited the people at Ford are putting out vehicles like the Mach_E/Mustang 1400 cars to show that electrification doesn't mean and end to fun. Plus, it doesn't seem like electric cars are slower than their ICE counterparts so at this point, people are clinging to the idea and nostalgia of ICE cars rather than to the technology.

I'm not afraid of the future. I embrace it, albeit with caveats. Ford showed us that fun electric cars are possible and probable. I say let's root them on into the future.

 

[SpeedLu]

Don't blame Tesla for that. They are a response to the market pressures and market demands. Like the "horse" option disappeared, so too will ICE engines. Porsche is doing some interesting things, however. They've developed a synthetic fuel with Siemens to keep ICE cars (as classics) on the road as they themselves transition to electric propulsion.

ICE vehicles are on the way out. Not in the near-term, but they're going to go. It's just what's going to happen. I'm excited the people at Ford are putting out vehicles like the Mach_E/Mustang 1400 cars to show that electrification doesn't mean and end to fun. Plus, it doesn't seem like electric cars are slower than their ICE counterparts so at this point, people are clinging to the idea and nostalgia of ICE cars rather than to the technology.

I'm not afraid of the future. I embrace it, albeit with caveats. Ford showed us that fun electric cars are possible and probable. I say let's root them on into the future.

Government has far more to do with current EV adoption than market pressures. The process has not been organic.

 

[martinjlm]

Government has far more to do with current EV adoption than market pressures. The process has not been organic.

I just spoke at a webinar on Tuesday about the transition from ICE to BEV, including some discussion on an ongoing shift in reasons for purchase / reasons for rejection for BEVs. Readers Digest / non-paying customer edition....

Early BEVs were econoboxes with sub-100 mile range and double-digit hour recharge times. New BEVs are luxury cars, pickup trucks, SUVs with 250 - 400 mile range and 20 - 30 minute top-off charge capability.

Battery costs for early BEVS were in the tens of thousands of dollars per battery pack and several hundred dollars per kWh for cells. Today, battery costs are approaching $100/kWh with a couple examples expected to be lower very soon. Energy density has improved to the point where 250+ mile range can be achieved with moderate (80kWh) battery sizes. At $100 /kWh, that's about $8,000 for a battery pack. Compare that to the cost of an engine.

Because of the low range, potential customers had to be concerned about where and how they would get their next charge. Now we have several OEMs (VW, GM, Ford, BMW) actively participating in the development and deployment of fast charging stations all over the US.

Early BEVs were prohibitively expensive, especially without the $7,500 Federal incentive. Today, factoring in Total Cost of Ownership (TOC), many BEV options are on par with ICE alternatives when the slightly higher purchase price is balanced with the lower operating costs (cost of electricity vs gasoline, lack of need to maintain exhaust systems or air management systems, and reduced need to maintain brake hardware.

We don't expect BEV to 100% replace ICE. Not for a few decades at least.

 

[Rinzler]

Government has far more to do with current EV adoption than market pressures. The process has not been organic.

Do you care what car the government thinks you should buy? No? Neither does anyone else generally. The government has definitely, however, made EVs easier to buy. No arguments there.

The tech has improved and people has followed, it's literally as simple as that. Teslas specifically are also now status symbols as well. People aspire to own a Tesla, like they do Mercedes, or the latest iPhone. It is literally the free market at work. A better product is on the horizon, and people are seeing this. Other industries will follow to support the shift in consumer purchase habits. They always do.

 

[Norm Peterson]

Don't blame Tesla for that. They are a response to the market pressures and market demands. Like the "horse" option disappeared, so too will ICE engines.

The horse analogy fails because the horse could not compete on the combined basis of speed and endurance. EVs do not inherently enjoy the same advantage over ICEs; if anything they're still on the disadvantaged side of the ledger.

ICE vehicles are on the way out. Not in the near-term, but they're going to go. It's just what's going to happen. I'm excited the people at Ford are putting out vehicles like the Mach_E/Mustang 1400 cars to show that electrification doesn't mean and end to fun.

That's fine if your concept of fun with a performance car begins and ends with straight line performance. Which sure makes for a tasty Kool-Aid to entice the majority of car enthusiasts to get on board with EVs. You're even proving my point here by being excited about exactly that.

Plus, it doesn't seem like electric cars are slower than their ICE counterparts so at this point, people are clinging to the idea and nostalgia of ICE cars rather than to the technology.

It's more than nostalgia. There's more to cars and your enjoyment of them than faster vs not-so-fast (or flat-out slower), so try to take a wider view of driving here. By definition, driving is part car and part driver, and you're shortchanging yourself and your part in it when you limit your appreciation to only the cars themselves (and the usual acceleration "bragging rights").

"Technology" has a big downside in that it distances the driver from the driving, which takes all the fun and satisfaction from getting something exactly right away from him. One easy illustration . . . where's the satisfaction when you might as well flip a toggle switch for your next hero 0 - 60 run instead of stepping on a pedal? Might as well be driving an X-box demo file.


Norm

 

[gixxersixxerman]

That's fine if your concept of fun with a performance car begins and ends with straight line performance. Which sure makes for a tasty Kool-Aid to entice the majority of car enthusiasts to get on board with EVs. You're even proving my point here by being excited about exactly that.

Norm

The auto industry moving towards EV, doesn't give to flips about the majority of car enthusiasts. More and more people, the people buying cars everyday, are looking at EV. My parents, I cant believe, have turned to hybrid and now EV. They already are on solar and it takes care of the EV needs along with the house and still credit a month from the electric company. Dad's looking at a Rivian now. That's what these manufactures are looking at. Ford doesn't care what someone that's last mustang is a 08 (just going off your sig box) or someone that doesn't want to use cruise control cares, you're not their market. You have your reasons on why you own what you own and why you like more analog then digital, the market just doesn't care.

 

[MaskedRacerX]

We've got a new model Y coming in 12 days.

More and more people, the people buying cars everyday, are looking at EV.

Dad's looking at a Rivian now.

Yep.

I can't say that I haven't given some serious consideration to a Model 3 Performance, especially with the updates to the 2021 model. When the time comes around May '21 to return the DD/RT, that may be the replacement.

Also watching Rivian, they had a $500M investment from Ford, they're building the BEV Amazon vans (who also invested $700M), I __love__ their designs, more so than Tesla, but waiting to see how the charging network pans out (that's where Tesla obviously has a huge advantage).

We've talked about doing a more upmarket EV like the R1S (the SUV vs. the Truck), and having an extra knockaround ICE car for a 2nd vehicle (something fun like a Golf GTI).

Digging on this:

 

[Norm Peterson]

The auto industry moving towards EV, doesn't give to flips about the majority of car enthusiasts.

Actually, I think they care a great deal about what car enthusiasts in general think, because enthusiasts represent influence on other people to buy their products. One-on-one no-pressure advertising that doesn't cost Ford or whoever a dime. Clearly, today's EV straight line performance stats are aimed straight at enthusiasts. Otherwise the top 0-60 times for EVs wouldn't start with a 3 or a 2. A 5 or a 6, maybe.


Norm

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