Uh Oh. Here comes the EV Challenger

[Commbubba19]

Ok, so some quick math.
The US uses 385,000,000 gallons of gasoline per day in 2015.
1 gallon of gasoline is the energy equivalent of 33.7 kilo watt hrs.
So, 33.7 x 385,000,000 is 13,008,200,000 kilo watt hrs per day in just gasoline. A coal fired plant is about 10% more efficient than a ICE, but that number didn't include diesel so lets call it a wash.
The US in 2014 used about 10,000,000 mega watt hrs per day, or 10,000,000,000 kilo watt hours.

So, to replace gasoline looks like we need about 130% more electricity generated to replace ICEs. Now this is extremely rough of course, and if I missed something please tell me where I screwed up. But this is about what I figured it would be. Not too many industries sitting around with 130% capacity to spare.Of course this is doing away with all ICE cars.

Also, Look carefully at the graph posted earlier about the percentage sources of oil, coal, gas, nuclear and renewable.
There won't be a bird left in the sky for all the windmills, or a desert left with sunlit sand.

Love it when folks try to solve global problems in 2 paragraphs.

Your math takes huge assumptions and over simplifies both the engineering and economics behind the world’s energy needs.

Anyone who thinks they can wrap their head around and solve this so easily is either deranged or arrogant as all hell.

And if you’re particular hood is having power issues, why not look into the local issues causing the problem vs assuming those particular issues are widespread vs localized. Statistics of scale really comes into play here.

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[EcoVert]

Yep, those batteries are an ecological nightmare.
It's all a farce.

99% of lead acid batteries are recycled only 1% of lithium batteries are recycled yes a huge ecological disaster is looming.

 

[200MPHCOBRA]

That's how you start to look at the magnitude of a problem. If you thought I was trying to solve a problem this massive on a Mustang forum than who is the deranged one? As a post mentioned above, this does not take into account the step up, step down, and transmission losses which are variable on a case by case basis. So you can make those numbers worse in your favor. I started my career as an auto mechanic, went on to be a machinist, then got my degree in mechanical engineering and now design aerospace tooling. I'm the guy who has to solve problems daily, and I love it when someone says oh, that will just get figured out. There is this thing called the laws of thermodynamics, and they are harder to break than faster than the speed of light travel. When you can show me any kind of math that supports your positions, I'll start to put some stock in your certainties.

You mention fusion, well, the last 35-40 years the solution has been "just around the corner". I hope I'm still alive to see it run for long enough to be more than an enormous science project, and actually power the grid.

Love it when folks try to solve global problems in 2 paragraphs.

Your math takes huge assumptions and over simplifies both the engineering and economics behind the world’s energy needs.

Anyone who thinks they can wrap their head around and solve this so easily is either deranged or arrogant as all hell.

And if you’re particular hood is having power issues, why not look into the local issues causing the problem vs assuming those particular issues are widespread vs localized. Statistics of scale really comes into play here.

 

[bootlegger]

That's how you start to look at the magnitude of a problem. If you thought I was trying to solve a problem this massive on a Mustang forum than who is the deranged one? As a post mentioned above, this does not take into account the step up, step down, and transmission losses which are variable on a case by case basis. So you can make those numbers worse in your favor. I started my career as an auto mechanic, went on to be a machinist, then got my degree in mechanical engineering and now design aerospace tooling. I'm the guy who has to solve problems daily, and I love it when someone says oh, that will just get figured out. There is this thing called the laws of thermodynamics, and they are harder to break than faster than the speed of light travel. When you can show me any kind of math that supports your positions, I'll start to put some stock in your certainties.

You mention fusion, well, the last 35-40 years the solution has been "just around the corner". I hope I'm still alive to see it run for long enough to be more than an enormous science project, and actually power the grid.

Efficiency is something you are missing. Gasoline engines are relatively inefficient, so you aren't getting the maximum work potential out of every gallon of gas. It also requires a lot of energy to extract and refine. The best diesel generators are getting around 14-15 kW/H per gallon of fuel. Gasoline engines are much lower. So that significantly cuts your fuel to electricity conversion.
And no, 130% more energy generation doesn't mean we would have to use every bit of wind and solar energy in this country. Solar is now close to 50% efficient with the latest technology, and things are constantly improving. Realistically, we will probably need 50% more power production for all the cars to go EV. That's a lot, but far from impossible. This power will come from mostly solar, wind, hydroelectric, and nuclear in the future. Coal has already been predicted to decline in use in the near future as natural gas is a cheaper and cleaner solution. We are talking half a century before we get close to 100% EV (at a minimum). That's a lot of time and a lot of technological advancement. If we survive as a society that long, I am sure things will be fine. We were able to increase electricity production by 300% in the last 50 years, I am sure we can get to +50-100% in the next 50.

 

[bootlegger]

99% of lead acid batteries are recycled only 1% of lithium batteries are recycled yes a huge ecological disaster is looming.

That's because most Li-ion is mostly used in small consumer electronics at the time. Most of what has been sold has been stashed in closets and drawers, or tossed in the garbage. We do need better infrastructure for Li-ion recycling. With increasing use in auto applications, I am hoping that infrastructure gets in place.

 

[Bullitt]

I would be down to swap to one EV and one hybrid as long as the hybrid was both very light weight and had available power in line with modern muscle cars and could take the abuse.

Keep in mind where I live gas is relatively cheap while my power bill is relatively high.

You are gonna have some work to do to convince me that my electric bill increase is off set by my gas savings because I am not seeing that either .

This video does the math and lays out the break-even point for EVs. Even in states where coal is the primary source of electricity, it only takes a few years to start saving money and polluting less. As for range anxiety preventing adoption, the reality is hardly anyone drives more than 250 miles a day, meaning you always can make it home and charge there. And battery range continues to improve. Charging stations will only be needed for road trips, which is why the focus with companies like Electrify America is to put chargers along highways, not replace every gas station. Those who drive a long distance for a vacation or for the holidays a couple times a year would probably be better off just renting a gas car (many people do this already anyway to keep the high miles off their personal car). The range thing is only a mental block for most people, and not a true issue most of the time. Anyway here's that video:

 

[Deleted member 35786]

^^^ Excellent video!!
We can now close this thread.

 

[Commbubba19]

That's how you start to look at the magnitude of a problem. If you thought I was trying to solve a problem this massive on a Mustang forum than who is the deranged one? As a post mentioned above, this does not take into account the step up, step down, and transmission losses which are variable on a case by case basis. So you can make those numbers worse in your favor. I started my career as an auto mechanic, went on to be a machinist, then got my degree in mechanical engineering and now design aerospace tooling. I'm the guy who has to solve problems daily, and I love it when someone says oh, that will just get figured out. There is this thing called the laws of thermodynamics, and they are harder to break than faster than the speed of light travel. When you can show me any kind of math that supports your positions, I'll start to put some stock in your certainties.

You mention fusion, well, the last 35-40 years the solution has been "just around the corner". I hope I'm still alive to see it run for long enough to be more than an enormous science project, and actually power the grid.

What exactly do you think my position is?

 

[Fatguy]

^^^ Excellent video!!
We can now close this thread.

Man, and here I thought this was a thread about a hybrid Challenger...



Silly me...

 

[Commbubba19]

Man, and here I thought this was a thread about a hybrid Challenger...



Silly me...

i tried. unfortunately a few doomsdayers had to swoop in and ruin the party for everyone else.

 

[samd1351]

Man, and here I thought this was a thread about a hybrid Challenger...



Silly me...

I saw something interesting, posted it here. Bam! Forum Throwdown XVII.

Oh well, gonna order me a FRPP 2 in few minutes and obsess over the weather channel waiting for decent weather to get the car into the shop for the install and some exhaust work.

 

[Deleted member 35786]

And they say my car pollutes.
It has nothing on the amount of toxic gasses and particulates aircraft generate. Not to include the production of such aircraft. Take it from me as a retired jet engine mechanic, for they are nasty polluters on a grand scale.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_aviation

 

[bootlegger]

And they say my car pollutes.
It has nothing on the amount of toxic gasses and particulates aircraft generate. Not to include the production of such aircraft. Take it from me as a retired jet engine mechanic, for they are nasty polluters on a grand scale.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_aviation

They are being targeted right now. There are already test fleets running biofuels. However, turbine engines are pretty dang efficient. They just have no aftertreatment.

 

[Allentown]

This video does the math and lays out the break-even point for EVs. Even in states where coal is the primary source of electricity, it only takes a few years to start saving money and polluting less. As for range anxiety preventing adoption, the reality is hardly anyone drives more than 250 miles a day, meaning you always can make it home and charge there. And battery range continues to improve. Charging stations will only be needed for road trips, which is why the focus with companies like Electrify America is to put chargers along highways, not replace every gas station. Those who drive a long distance for a vacation or for the holidays a couple times a year would probably be better off just renting a gas car (many people do this already anyway to keep the high miles off their personal car). The range thing is only a mental block for most people, and not a true issue most of the time. Anyway here's that video:

I couldn't disagree with you more. It is nothing for me to say "whelp, lets head from Augusta to Chapel Hill to see mom" or "lets head up to Builtmore in Asheville NC for the weekend" or "lets head to Nashville TN or Memphis Or Gatlinberg TN for a long weekend' or "lets head to Savannah for the weekend" or hell even "Lets head to Orlando Fl for the weekend". Every once in a while "Lets drive up to DC and visit the smithsonian" Hell i have even driven the entire apalachian trail from GA to vermont, skipped all the highways, stayed on all the narrow mountain passes the entire way. Once i drove from St. Paul to agusta non stop except for bathroom and pee breaks...in a blizzard. Took me 20 hours but i made it home even though i was about the only car on the entire road. On my to do list is to start taking country tours where i visit all the drive in dinners and dives and see many of the countrys national parks....from a car.

I am completely 100% emphatically not buying the "you don't need range" argument.

I work from home so other than grabbing groceries.,.....the majority of the time when i DO WANT the car..it is for an EXTENDED trip.

For my regular work i dont even use the car, i take a cab to the airport and get on a plane so the "local use" of a car is of zero use to me. Long range trips is the entire purpose of my vehicles.

Not a "mental block".

 

[bootlegger]

I couldn't disagree with you more. It is nothing for me to say "whelp, lets head from Augusta to Raligh to see mom" or "lets head up to Builtmore in Asheville NC for the weekend" or "lets head to Nashville TN or Memphis for a long weekend' or "lets head to Savannah for the weekend" or hell even "Lets head to Orlando Fl for the weekend".

I am completely 100% emphatically not buying the "you don't need range" argument.

I work from home so other than grabbing groceries.,.....the majority of the time when i DO WANT the car..it is for an EXTENDED trip.

For my regular work i dont even use the car, i take a cab to the airport and get on a plan so the "local use" of a car is of zero use to me. Long range trips is the entire purpose of my vehicles.

Not a "mental block".

You are rarity. He is right that most drivers don't drive over 200 miles a day. 99% of my driving is 50 miles round trip. If I could get an EV truck or SUV that wasn't super heavy and gave me 200mi of range, I could see having that as a daily driver. My pathfinder barely gets 250mi right now.
In the long run, I can see EV making up most of the market, and things like hydrogen fuel cell hybrids taking up the rest. I also believe ICE will be around for another 50-100 years, they just won't be building new versions. Enthusiasts will probably still be able to pay a premium for a tank of gas to run their classic V8 long after I am dead.

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