Mustang Sales Down 41%...

[The_Phantom]

I don't know how you can say "long run" when it comes to an electric car. Are they assuming that the electric cars will last for 30+ years like gasoline cars do? Big assumption when electric cars haven't been on the road more than a few years. AFAIK most electric cars only last a few years. Then they are garbage.

A modern electric battery pack in a EV will last AT MOST 5 years. Most will see a lifespan of 3-4 years.

Replacement costs can be 50% of the car's value at that time.

I maintain my view that EV's just aren't the answer we are looking for. The components for those battery packs come from extremely dangerous mines with a lot of acid rain caused in the process. It is a dirty, dangerous procedure just to procure the components. Then....you have to assemble them, fly them around the world on a jet which is burning fuel. It's just a non-starter for a long term solution.

I honestly believe EV's only exist because car manufacturers want to make the general public think that they are trying when, in actuality, they are still making the vast majority of their profits on big trucks and SUV's.

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[martinjlm]

A modern electric battery pack in a EV will last AT MOST 5 years. Most will see a lifespan of 3-4 years.

Replacement costs can be 50% of the car's value at that time.

I maintain my view that EV's just aren't the answer we are looking for. The components for those battery packs come from extremely dangerous mines with a lot of acid rain caused in the process. It is a dirty, dangerous procedure just to procure the components. Then....you have to assemble them, fly them around the world on a jet which is burning fuel. It's just a non-starter for a long term solution.

I honestly believe EV's only exist because car manufacturers want to make the general public think that they are trying when, in actuality, they are still making the vast majority of their profits on big trucks and SUV's.

The stuff in bold can be demonstrably proven false. Toyota Prius has been on the market more than 15 years and most are still on their first battery. Chevy Volt has been on the market since 2010 - 11 and other than vehicle collisions and a very low number of low mileage warranty replacements, very few have seen a battery replacement. We had a 2012 Volt for 4 years and the battery was fine the day we turned in the lease. The 2017 we turned it in for is approaching its 3rd year and still wakes up every morning with more than 55 miles electric range.

The highest price I’ve seen for a battery replacement is about $8,000. Again, that is the highest, not the average. Granted, I have not looked at replacement cost for Porsche Panamera e-Hybrid or Cayenne e-Hybrid, but hell, a Porsche water pump costs enough to cater a banquet.

And then there’s the fact that all manufacturers currently warranty the battery for 8 years. If they only lasted 4 years and cost half the price of the car, automakers would be signing up to replace half the cost of the vehicles they sell.....twice. I kinda doubt they would do that.

 

[martinjlm]

I don't know how you can say "long run" when it comes to an electric car. Are they assuming that the electric cars will last for 30+ years like gasoline cars do? Big assumption when electric cars haven't been on the road more than a few years. AFAIK most electric cars only last a few years. Then they are garbage.

You are correct that most electric cars have not been on the market long enough to assess long term durability, but there a number of things to keep in mind when trying to predict life cycle...

1. The battery and electric system that operates it are all warranted for 8 years. Manufacturers engineer the batteries to never actually fully cycle the battery (from “completely full” to “completely empty”) in order to safeguard the battery life to achieve long life
2. Hybrid and electric vehicles that use regenerative braking are much easier on the car’s mechanical braking system, since the electric motors do a lot of the braking required to stop the vehicle. One of the selling points of hybrid and electric vehicles is lower routine maintenance costs. Fewer fluid and friction components to replace.
3. Every vehicle, ICE, hybrid, or electric based, goes through a vehicle development process that through extreme testing and parallel computer simulation modeling, estimate the vehicle life cycle. It’s all part of durability testing that manufacturers have been doing for decades. They have a good feel for which systems are most likely to fail under normal use and how long that might take. They don’t need to wait 30 years to estimate how many vehicles will last 30 years.

Toyota Prius has been in the market since 1997. That’s 21 years. Most are still on the road. Most are still on their first battery. Chevrolet Volt has been on the road since 2010. Most are still on the road and on their first battery. Nissan Leaf....now that’s a different story. A lot of them in very hot climates have had batteries replaced. A lot in very cold climates have had batteries replaced. The message there is Nissan needs to re-evaluate their battery temperature management.

 

[The_Phantom]

The stuff in bold can be demonstrably proven false. Toyota Prius has been on the market more than 15 years and most are still on their first battery. Chevy Volt has been on the market since 2010 - 11 and other than vehicle collisions and a very low number of low mileage warranty replacements, very few have seen a battery replacement. We had a 2012 Volt for 4 years and the battery was fine the day we turned in the lease. The 2017 we turned it in for is approaching its 3rd year and still wakes up every morning with more than 55 miles electric range.

The highest price I’ve seen for a battery replacement is about $8,000. Again, that is the highest, not the average. Granted, I have not looked at replacement cost for Porsche Panamera e-Hybrid or Cayenne e-Hybrid, but hell, a Porsche water pump costs enough to cater a banquet.

And then there’s the fact that all manufacturers currently warranty the battery for 8 years. If they only lasted 4 years and cost half the price of the car, automakers would be signing up to replace half the cost of the vehicles they sell.....twice. I kinda doubt they would do that.

Most manufacturers warranty their kits for 8 years assuming that people will not have an EV as primary transportation. That is how they get away with the warranty part of things. Most people who have EV's do not drive long distances, etc.

But I digress. As I said, IMO, it is not the answer. You are still damaging the environment to make the batteries, dispose of the batteries, etc.

 

[martinjlm]

Most manufacturers warranty their kits for 8 years assuming that people will not have an EV as primary transportation. That is how they get away with the warranty part of things. Most people who have EV's do not drive long distances, etc.

But I digress. As I said, IMO, it is not the answer. You are still damaging the environment to make the batteries, dispose of the batteries, etc.

Actually all manufacturers warranty EV components for 8 years because CARB says they have to. So then it is on the automaker to either make certain their product can outlive the warranty or politely bow out of the game.

 

[The_Phantom]

Actually all manufacturers warranty EV components for 8 years because CARB says they have to. So then it is on the automaker to either make certain their product can outlive the warranty or politely bow out of the game.

Semantics. But alright then.

 

[thehunterooo]

Actually all manufacturers warranty EV components for 8 years because CARB says they have to. So then it is on the automaker to either make certain their product can outlive the warranty or politely bow out of the game.

Hey you didn’t see my post in the other thread ?

 

[Hack]

You are correct that most electric cars have not been on the market long enough to assess long term durability, but there a number of things to keep in mind when trying to predict life cycle...

1. The battery and electric system that operates it are all warranted for 8 years. Manufacturers engineer the batteries to never actually fully cycle the battery (from “completely full” to “completely empty”) in order to safeguard the battery life to achieve long life
2. Hybrid and electric vehicles that use regenerative braking are much easier on the car’s mechanical braking system, since the electric motors do a lot of the braking required to stop the vehicle. One of the selling points of hybrid and electric vehicles is lower routine maintenance costs. Fewer fluid and friction components to replace.
3. Every vehicle, ICE, hybrid, or electric based, goes through a vehicle development process that through extreme testing and parallel computer simulation modeling, estimate the vehicle life cycle. It’s all part of durability testing that manufacturers have been doing for decades. They have a good feel for which systems are most likely to fail under normal use and how long that might take. They don’t need to wait 30 years to estimate how many vehicles will last 30 years.

Toyota Prius has been in the market since 1997. That’s 21 years. Most are still on the road. Most are still on their first battery. Chevrolet Volt has been on the road since 2010. Most are still on the road and on their first battery. Nissan Leaf....now that’s a different story. A lot of them in very hot climates have had batteries replaced. A lot in very cold climates have had batteries replaced. The message there is Nissan needs to re-evaluate their battery temperature management.

Do you have a source for your statement that most 20 year old Priuses are still on the road? I don't see many of them any more, and the ones I do see look terrible. I had a coworker with a Prius and the batteries had to be replaced twice in the first 3 years he had the car (it was new when he bought it). I know, one person's experience doesn't make a pattern, but he's the only person I know that owned one. And I'd ask the same about the Volt.

Frankly I don't believe your statements. And I thought we were talking about EVs, not hybrids. There's a big difference. When the batteries on a hybrid get weak you can just drive on the gas engine. We all know that gas engines last a long time. The EV has no such safety net.

 

[martinjlm]

Do you have a source for your statement that most 20 year old Priuses are still on the road? I don't see many of them any more, and the ones I do see look terrible.

I have seen a release from Toyota that had stats on Prius battery life. If I can find it, I will post it. QUOTE="Hack, post: 2352700, member: 12069"]
[I had a coworker with a Prius and the batteries had to be replaced twice in the first 3 years he had the car (it was new when he bought it). I know, one person's experience doesn't make a pattern, but he's the only person I know that owned one. And I'd ask the same about the Volt. [/quote] With regard to Volt, my reference would be an article where a Volt spokesperson was asked the cost of a Volt replacement battery. He provided the price. I don’t recall exactly what it was, but it was under $8,000. He added that they had yet to sell one, but they did have to keep them in stock. This was since we’ve had our 2017.

Frankly I don't believe your statements. And I thought we were talking about EVs, not hybrids. There's a big difference. When the batteries on a hybrid get weak you can just drive on the gas engine. We all know that gas engines last a long time. The EV has no such safety net.

You are right that we were talking EVs and not hybrids, but EVs have not been on the road long enough to really comment on durability. I will stipulate that Prius is not a fair measure, because Toyota chose to use very safe NiMH technology and stress it very little. Chevrolet Volt, on the other hand is a good comparison. Even though people refer to it as a plug-in hybrid, what it really is is an electric vehicle with an on-board generator. It runs on electric until it can’t, as opposed to plug-in hybrids that run on a blend of both, reserving all-electric mode for low speeds, short distances. Chevrolet Volt can run at electronically limited 99 mph on battery only. Plug-in Hybrids automatically revert to gas engine at 25 - 80 mph, depending on the brand and battery capacity. Most make the transition in the 40 - 45 mph range. And Volt uses Lithium Ion battery chemistry instead of NiMH like Prius.

Here are some links to references to Volt battery durability
https://ngtnews.com/2012-chevy-volt-maintains-100-battery-capacity-after-300000-miles

Same driver, same car, 1 year and 100,000 miles later https://insideevs.com/chevy-volt-400000-miles-odometer-no-noticeable-battery-degradation/

Since Tesla is the only brand of vehicle that’s been on the road long enough to approach out of warranty battery replacement, there have been some studies looking at Tesla battery life. Here is (in my opinion) the most comprehensive one. https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1110149_tesla-model-s-battery-life-what-the-data-show-so-far. Readers Digest version....expect Tesla batteries to maintain 90 - 95% of capacity beyond 90,000 miles and expect no more than 10 - 15% capacity reduction over 150,000 miles.

Even then, most Li-Ion battery packs can have cells replaced instead of requiring entire pack replacement. In effect, head gasket replacement versus head replacement.

 

[Deleted member 35786]

The stuff in bold can be demonstrably proven false. Toyota Prius has been on the market more than 15 years and most are still on their first battery. Chevy Volt has been on the market since 2010 - 11 and other than vehicle collisions and a very low number of low mileage warranty replacements, very few have seen a battery replacement. We had a 2012 Volt for 4 years and the battery was fine the day we turned in the lease. The 2017 we turned it in for is approaching its 3rd year and still wakes up every morning with more than 55 miles electric range.

The highest price I’ve seen for a battery replacement is about $8,000. Again, that is the highest, not the average. Granted, I have not looked at replacement cost for Porsche Panamera e-Hybrid or Cayenne e-Hybrid, but hell, a Porsche water pump costs enough to cater a banquet.

And then there’s the fact that all manufacturers currently warranty the battery for 8 years. If they only lasted 4 years and cost half the price of the car, automakers would be signing up to replace half the cost of the vehicles they sell.....twice. I kinda doubt they would do that.

 

[Deleted member 35786]

Here is what it cost when you put 300,000 miles on a Tesla Model S. Granted it was all on warranty.

https://jalopnik.com/this-is-what-happens-when-you-put-300-000-miles-on-a-te-1798662230

 

[5.oh]

you can make stats like this say about anything you want. 2017 mustang sales are up +23% from 2010 or down -86% from 1966. as many have stated the "pony" car has been in decline since 1970. You have good generation sales and bad.

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