Market bubble and electric restrictions vs value

[Tomster]

No doubt the used car market, in general, is inflated. And I partially agree with some of your other points. But with about 3600 Rs out there in the world, do you really think the prices for these cars will fall substantially? I know you own a couple of Rs and a 500 CFTP, so you have direct experience with these cars.

I have a ‘19 R and a ‘19 ZLE. The ZLE is objectively faster and an overall better track car than my R. I would sell the ZLE tomorrow no problem if something interesting came along. My R will not be for sale in my lifetime. And my wife (very much into fast cars) feels exactly the same way, she’s interested in cycling something else into the fleet but getting rid of the R is a nonstarter. She loves that car as much or more than I do.

My point here is that it’s easy to make generalized statements about the excesses in the post-pandemic economy. I don’t believe the same adjustments will occur with the Rs. My formal education is in Economics, Finance, and Accounting…and I could be VERY wrong.

Substantially? It depends on what you call substantial. Yes, a correction is coming and these kinds of toys are first on the chopping block.

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[CANTWN4LSN]

OP, thank you for clarifying, happy to stand corrected, and pardon me if I offended you. I am not upset. I certainly misinterpreted your intent as there seemed to me a bit of incongruity.
The point I was trying to make is the purpose of a car is to be driven, just as the purpose of a house is to be lived in, a fishing pole to catch fish, etc. I don't think Ford built GT350s for the purpose of making them toys, collectibles, or barely driven. When something is produced in limited amounts, there is a temptation to not use it for its intended purpose but hold onto it for return on investment. One can certainly do that but realize that as a consequence it can take it out of the realm of affordability and use by others wishing to use it for its intent. Just a moral point.
From the standpoint of being a blue collar average Joe gear head who will deplete his savings to buy an R, my advise would be don't, hold cash for now, and wait it out. I fully understand the itch to have a nice sports car (why I bought one). The problem is these are so much fun to drive, they are overvalued now, you may well put on more miles than you think, and for that reason if you overpay now as a collectible or investment it will not hold its value which may be important for someone with limited means at this point in life. But certainly feel free to do as you wish.

 

[Whipped500]

OP, thank you for clarifying, happy to stand corrected, and pardon me if I offended you. I am not upset. I certainly misinterpreted your intent as there seemed to me a bit of incongruity.
The point I was trying to make is the purpose of a car is to be driven, just as the purpose of a house is to be lived in, a fishing pole to catch fish, etc. I don't think Ford built GT350s for the purpose of making them toys, collectibles, or barely driven. When something is produced in limited amounts, there is a temptation to not use it for its intended purpose but hold onto it for return on investment. One can certainly do that but realize that as a consequence it can take it out of the realm of affordability and use by others wishing to use it for its intent. Just a moral point.
From the standpoint of being a blue collar average Joe gear head who will deplete his savings to buy an R, my advise would be don't, hold cash for now, and wait it out. I fully understand the itch to have a nice sports car (why I bought one). The problem is these are so much fun to drive, they are overvalued now, you may well put on more miles than you think, and for that reason if you overpay now as a collectible or investment it will not hold its value which may be important for someone with limited means at this point in life. But certainly feel free to do as you wish.

Thanks!
In these forums, I don't always seem to use the right words/terms to get my point across or ask the right question.

My gut tells me that prices are inflated right now and they will come down a little. I know owners probably don't want to hear that but numbers I'm talking about is what now is $90k might come back down to $80...still above MSRP so owners should be happy. I personally don't think they will go below MSRP. I wouldn't be spending every dime I have but it would make me a little uncomfortable at this point. My concern was that if they continued to go up, I'm not doing myself any favors by waiting since this is the car I want. I research a lot so when I'm trying to do things like this I am ready to go and educated when the right deal comes along.

I know I'm all over the place on this reply but as I just said that I don't use the right words. The gas price/tax/EV is a concern of mine but I also should have said that I would like to make this purchase in the next or maybe even two...is there any reason not to wait?

All of these replies are making me feel a little more comfortable about waiting.

Thanks

 

[dom418]

Thanks!
In these forums, I don't always seem to use the right words/terms to get my point across or ask the right question.

My gut tells me that prices are inflated right now and they will come down a little. I know owners probably don't want to hear that but numbers I'm talking about is what now is $90k might come back down to $80...still above MSRP so owners should be happy. I personally don't think they will go below MSRP. I wouldn't be spending every dime I have but it would make me a little uncomfortable at this point. My concern was that if they continued to go up, I'm not doing myself any favors by waiting since this is the car I want. I research a lot so when I'm trying to do things like this I am ready to go and educated when the right deal comes along.

I know I'm all over the place on this reply but as I just said that I don't use the right words. The gas price/tax/EV is a concern of mine but I also should have said that I would like to make this purchase in the next or maybe even two...is there any reason not to wait?

All of these replies are making me feel a little more comfortable about waiting.

Thanks

Using your math, I would rather buy now and gamble losing $10,000 if the market corrects vs waiting 2 years and having to pay $20,000 more if they continue on this trajectory.

 

[Tomster]

And there you have it. Do you think the economy is going to get better or worse? Do you think that eventually the car market will equalize? Do you think the supply chain will correct itself?

Prices right here, right now, are based upon a lot of F'd up things.

 

[Inthehighdesert]

I don’t think anything is going to change in 2022. Maybe early to mid 2023. I don’t know how others are in there lines of work, but me I’m out till 4/5 of 2023 currently. Completely agree that stuff is completely fxcked up currently, and unnecessarily.

And there you have it. Do you think the economy is going to get better or worse? Do you think that eventually the car market will equalize? Do you think the supply chain will correct itself?

Prices right here, right now, are based upon a lot of F'd up things.

 

[passwords]

Substantially? It depends on what you call substantial. Yes, a correction is coming and these kinds of toys are first on the chopping block.

A correction is coming for sure. When and by how much? Let me know and I’ll have you take over my investment portfolio.

I appreciate your confidence. I’ve watched you be wrong on this topic for a very long time. That’s ok, you will eventually be right, maybe.

There is a term in economics - ceteris parabis - it means “all else being equal.” When you have hundreds of thousands of variables, nothing is ever equal. In other words, I appreciate your confidence and I understand it. And I don’t buy it for a second. I also understand I could be wrong and the market for Rs could tank.

The argument here is all academic for those of us who own these cars. Is a 2015 worth more? Is a 2016 worth less? Does a ‘20 make a better investment than a ‘19? You’ve made your conclusion and I’ve made mine. We aren’t going to change each other’s minds. What should the OP do? Wait, for sure, at your own peril. Good luck.

 

[Labradog]

I wouldn't be spending every dime I have but it would make me a little uncomfortable at this point.

You can't afford it. Financial Crisis is gonna look like a picnic compared to what's coming. Here's just one example of how ridiculous our current situation is: Major Banks and Investment firms have been parking over 1.6 trillion dollars in overnight reverse repo agreements with the Fed for months. Essentially getting 0.5% interest on their money while inflation has been running rampant. What was the amount in 2008? 25 billion. Not exactly a vote of confidence in the market.

 

[passwords]

You can't afford it. Financial Crisis is gonna look like a picnic compared to what's coming. Here's just one example of how ridiculous our current situation is: Major Banks and Investment firms have been parking over 1.6 trillion dollars in overnight reverse repo agreements with the Fed for months. Essentially getting 0.5% interest on their money while inflation has been running rampant. What was the amount in 2008? 25 billion. Not exactly a vote of confidence in the market.

Wait, are you saying the overnight Eurodollar lending was $25 billion in 2008? Um, no. Maybe in September 2008 at the height of the panic, but NEVER part of the normal financial flow.

 

[Labradog]

Wait, are you saying the overnight Eurodollar lending was $25 billion in 2008? Um, no. Maybe in September 2008 at the height of the panic, but NEVER part of the normal financial flow.

Roughly Sept-Dec 2008. 25 billion in overnight Treasury Securities.

 

[HanSolo]

I just pulled the trigger on a 2019 GT350 (Picking her up on the 7th). I was back and forth for the last year as you. But at the end of the day, we want what we want.
And these Beautiful Savage Beasts are Undeniable ICONS!
If the bubble pops next month and I lose money screw it.
Go test drive one at a dealership, that’s what did it for me.
The 2019 & 20’s are real close to the R’s.
Happy Hunting

 

[Skye]

OP, I’m glad you are here with us (as you can tell, I just joined myself), but many of your comments lead me to believe your emotions may be getting the better of you.

Every segment of the economy is inflated right now and many are speculative. One of the most difficult problems in making an investment is knowing the right time to buy and later sell. Now is probably one of the worst times to make a significant purchase of anything perceived as an investment in this country.

Like most people I appreciate almost everything mechanical, but a Mustang was enduring to me, something I could see/use the rest of my life and enjoy it. So I began researching for a 65/66 fastback, possibly a K-code a few years ago.

While I could swing the upfront purchase, the long-term cost gave me pause and I eventually passed. Taking into account the cost of insurance (price an agreed-on-value policy, not a regular one), taxes and maintenance, I wasn’t comfortable with the potential long-term drag on my retirement income. Actually, as the years wore on and future buyers would have expected refurbishments, it would have cost more money still.

The recent explosion in pricing of 60s muscle cars turned me off of buying one. I couldn’t make the numbers work. Trying to make one of my original points, I could not determine how inflated prices were, what fair value was and the long-term cost of holding on to such a thing didn’t work for me.

As you can probably tell, I didn’t place an order for what I did because I think my car is going to appreciate in value. I’m buying something because I have an itch to scratch, a goal driven by the enjoyment of such machines. Most people here are probably on the same path.

If you are discovering these cars and this segment of the market in-particular, you might want to go through a broker, someone who knows the cars and the industry in-depth and can make more objective decisions with you. You will pay a commission, but I’d like to think that will be balanced by coming in at a more realistic price which supports your goals.

My experience in researching the topic led me to believe I'd be breaking even at best on anything approaching what most would consider an investment.

I cannot tell you what the true value of a 350R is, but I’m comfortable saying that, during the next recession, most will be selling for less than what they are today.

No disrespect or offense intended on any of the above. And if you do take the plunge, please report back on your experience, with photos, please!

 

[Bikeman315]

I just pulled the trigger on a 2019 GT350 (Picking her up on the 7th). I was back and forth for the last year as you. But at the end of the day, we want what we want.
And these Beautiful Savage Beasts are Undeniable ICONS!
If the bubble pops next month and I lose money screw it.
Go test drive one at a dealership, that’s what did it for me.
The 2019 & 20’s are real close to the R’s.
Happy Hunting

@HanSolo, welcome to the forum and congrats on your new Shelby. Might I ask some particulars about your car? Options, milage and if possible, price? Also any concerns about buying from Carmax?

 

[stanglife]

.02 - The R has "more" - many will argue that it's not a great deal vs a standard 350 but there are 2 things to remember. 1 - Many things at the top of their model range have diminishing returns. Technically the Mustang GT and maybe even the Ecoboost is the best deal. If you want the best, you pay the little extra and the amount you pay is not proportional to the overall anything. 2 - as you are wisely asserting, the R will retain more value over time which makes the fact that you paid a lot extra for that icing on the top of an already great GT350, not sting so much...in fact, you might eventually be laughing to the bank.

You're also correct about both of your questions - the market is inflated AND the R is organically up in value at the same time (due to just being awesome and no longer being available) - so yes the market will pull back some even on the R but many feel like it will retain much of the current values.

 

[svttim]

Post the link where a Mach 1 is faster around a track then a 350R.

The Mach 1 is not faster then the GT350R. Journalist who cant drive either. Speaking to Ford insiders the R is still seconds faster then the Mach . Poor Journalism

Now to the OP, We are obviously in a bubble due to inflation but all it will take is a tightening of the money supply to burst that bubble and that's already happening from what I have heard. In the end, the R will retain a higher value because it was more expensive in the first place and simply the limited numbers. For proof of that one only needs to look at the 93, 95 and the 200 Cobra Rs and compare it to the standard Cobras. From your description of your intended purpose, stick with the R. Whether its a good time to buy is questionable

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