COVID-19 Question.....................

[shogun32]

Anyone remember the social panic back in '57? Where we shut down the entire economy? No?
https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandemic-1957.htm

What about in '68? A whole bunch of folks on this forum were alive back then and if you don't remember, I'm sure your parents do. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older.
Although a vaccine was developed against the virus, it became available only after the pandemic had peaked in many countries.

So riddle me this, Batman. Why are people losing their shit? China and SK casualty rates are downright modest. We're 2 months in and only a 100 people dead of which most of them from just one facility and of highly susceptible age and health condition so their deaths are totally normal. The flu season is coming to an end and yes it'll continue to spread but are we looking at social-crumbling numbers?

If you want to dig into the CDC stats so far this year (excludes Corona) try
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

This one is fun
https://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/FluHospRates.html

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[kilobravo]

Matt: The link is to a secure server it would appear and I was only four so I definitely don't remember it.

But, I found this...

In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.

 

[Braski]

I agree with being smart and public distancing but I also think this whole thing is being blown out of control. There is plenty of things causing more death in our country and through out the world than the coronavirus, the only difference is that the coronavirus doesn't discriminate on wealth. However, the young are definetly being reckless but the old\susceptible aren't doing any better. My parents along with 5 other couples who are "65-80 years old" didn't think twice about traveling to the Dominican Republic and back. Stay calm, be smart, wash your hands and live on!

 

[dsz blade]

Anyone remember the social panic back in '57? Where we shut down the entire economy? No?
https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3_pandemic-1957.htm

What about in '68? A whole bunch of folks on this forum were alive back then and if you don't remember, I'm sure your parents do. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older.
Although a vaccine was developed against the virus, it became available only after the pandemic had peaked in many countries.

So riddle me this, Batman. Why are people losing their shit? China and SK casualty rates are downright modest. We're 2 months in and only a 100 people dead of which most of them from just one facility and of highly susceptible age and health condition so their deaths are totally normal. The flu season is coming to an end and yes it'll continue to spread but are we looking at social-crumbling numbers?

If you want to dig into the CDC stats so far this year (excludes Corona) try
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

This one is fun
https://gis.cdc.gov/GRASP/Fluview/FluHospRates.html

Man, not even my parents would remember these. Got some new articles to read in my boredom though.

 

[shogun32]

Why Italy?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/covid-19-comes-europe

Will we learn the correct lessons?

 

[jwhite]

I seriously don’t know if this is blown out of per portion or a true crisis?? Depending on who you talk to, media who needs viewers, so it’s played as “The End of the World”, listening to the Serious XM channel 121 on the COVID-19 channel, supposed experts are saying “Just Relax”. The numbers and stats we read can be interpreted anyway seen fit to meet an agenda.. This to will pass, just as AID’s Bird Flu, SARS, and the big Ebola scare.

 

[kilobravo]

JB: Truthfully, I don't believe that any data is exaggerated. If anything, it's the opposite.

Interpreting the information is key to the success of the mission and I would venture a guess that the Administration has THE best people in the country advising them.

Now whether it's all a moot point and we're doomed or, we get through this, all depends on everyone following the guidelines. It's not a ruse by the media, that's a certainty.

 

[Strokerswild]

I think the media has blown the whole thing WAY out of proportion. Look at toilet paper availability for an example.

I know a couple of RNs, and neither are bailing out of their jobs anytime soon but have concerns. One of them had this to offer:

"There are a LOT of people out there who have been exposed that haven't shown symptoms yet. They're already contagious but don't know it. Mostly the elderly and those with underlying illnesses are the ones we will lose. They won't have the strength to fight it off and recover since it isn't the run of the mill flu by a long shot as it is a novel virus that we have no immunity to. And I think it could recur when we think it's gone because it's an odd one that can change rapidly. I don't believe that we have a clue what we could be in for quite yet, all we can do is take all precautions."

It might be the worst thing humanity has dealt with so far as illness, might not. It has potential.

 

[jwhite]

@kilobravo, their is obviously something going on, as I would not believe our government and administration would be shutting down everything at the risk of a major Global recession. I just can’t help but think that Social media hasn’t fueled this to a point? I just read that over sea’s and Europe and China have actually have declining numbers of cases, weather that source is credible or not, don’t know. I’ve seen where Italy was hit hardest only because of a fail medical system and a median age of 48 years old, highest in the world? Again credible info or not? The severity of this virus just seems to be all over the place depends on the source. Maybe I’m just going out of my way to find the silver lining? Weather it’s an overreaction or not I think the steps are necessary to control a national outbreak. I’m headed to Florida in the 500 Saturday to wait this thing out by the pool with some adult beverages and my wife. Maybe a nice cruise down to 7 mile bridge in the Key’s . You stay safe and healthy my friend.

 

[kilobravo]

JB: I didn't mean to imply that the media hasn't taken advantage of the crisis to increase readership/viewership. That's the nature of the beast, unfortunately. But, we too often forget that the media are in business just like any other company and making money is the goal.

Regarding the information you referenced, first, I think the fact that the outbreaks began at fairly widely different dates, the numbers are confusing, but I do believe that any data from the WHO or CDC is accurate. However, I'd also say that said data is only good for hours, not days.

And absolutely, positively nothing wrong with looking for the silver lining, if there is one.

I'm not trying to be a pessimist, JB, far from it but in order to make the correct decisions, we need to have accurate information.

We're hunkered down here and you and yours stay safe, too amigo.

 

[shogun32]

But, we too often forget that the media are in business just like any other company and making money is the goal.

I want to know how the media situation rooms and news rooms are complying with the 10 people in a gathering rule. Oh, they're not?

 

[16Kobra]

Guys this is just the beginning. The very very start.

BTW here is what made Trump change his tune. This is best case with social distancing.

I was speaking with a good friend who travels overseas for his job. He had told me one of the reasons Italy is suffering so much is "spring break" happened a few weeks ago and apparently many Europeans travel to Italy to ski and vacation, thus spreading the virus.

We here in Florida and alot of the east coast started spring break this week. I think some of the "closing's" are trying to "slow down" the spreading of the virus.

Just my 0.02 cents.

 

[shogun32]

This is best case with social distancing.

No, that's the "don't do anything" death spike time series. It simply assumes 4% of those with symptoms severe enough to get diagnosed (generally the 65+ year olds) die which seems like a reasonable extrapolation based on current data. Will a relatively quick death of 2.2 million worth of gramps be unfortunate? Sure. Economic impact? Corvette sales will take it on the chin. Maybe GM will need another bailout.

You can't argue with the math. This thing will spread till the herd is >66% infected and antibodies present. Say you're having your leg amputated without pain killers. Would you like the surgeon to saw fast (or use a cleaver) or be gentle and slow about it? Slowing the rate of spread and immunity is the latter. Can you survive the pain for longer? Or will you die of cardiac arrest on the table because your body ran out of coping mechanism?

We know nothing about re-infection yet. It could be like 1918 where the 2nd wave is far worse.

 

[lateinthegame]

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ford-employees-work-home-until-further-notice

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/3/2...s-ban-business-travel-employees-test-positive

Wow, building cars from home!!

 

[lateinthegame]

I think the media hype is causing a panic. There is not a big story about the current flu. If everyone knew how bad the flu is, no one would go out of their house.

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