V8 potential problems coming? [ADMIN WARNING: *** NO POLITICS ***]

[Mspider]

Uh huh.

You can pretend EVs are headed in the right direction. But ignoring reality has it's costs.

Do you own an EV?

No I do not. strictly talking about the mobile service in this post.

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[IPOGT]

To me, an EV will never be a serious vehicle. I feel It’s more like and adult R/C car that you can sit in. Or an adult glorified Power Wheels. It’s gonna take a lot to change my mind.

 

[Mspider]

To me, an EV will never be a serious vehicle. I feel It’s more like and adult R/C car that you can sit in. Or an adult glorified Power Wheels. It’s gonna take a lot to change my mind.

nothing worse than using the word "never". With a long enough time horizon anything is always possible.

 

[Garfy]

Oh yeah that sun, it's very unreliable.

Yeah, solar works great when it's overcast or raining...

 

[Garfy]

nothing worse than using the word "never". With a long enough time horizon anything is always possible.

Just like in a marriage, it's advised to avoid using 2 words; always and never.

 

[Garfy]

You think too much in the old central structures.
Here in Germany, we can see quite clearly that the future belongs to a large extent to small-scale local energy generation. Of course, this may change again when fusion energy works on an industrial scale.

From real life I can report that a friend of mine has built a house in a residential area and is completely independent of the grid on his doorstep.
Electricity is generated with solar, so much that he can also charge his EVs (he is considering buying another EV so he can use them alternately as storage, is cheaper than another stationary battery storage), fill a battery storage and at peak times even feed into the grid (not worth it because of low compensation).
Heat is also generated with solar and stored in a large heat storage (water), in addition there is a small pellet heater if the solar heat is not enough.
Of course, the house has excellent thermal insulation, so it is cool in summer and requires little heating energy in winter.

It works, if you only want it, regardless of what the state does or Mr Putler (or any other despot) comes up with.


By the way, I'm not worried about freezing in the winter, even if the media is making a "panic" (the national gas storage is currently more than 81% full).


I agree that batteries with lithium are not the solution. Here at my doorstep, the transit train is powered by hydrogen, no longer in trial operation, but in regular operation.
Hydrogen is an excellent storage medium for naturally generated electricity.

Regarding hydroelectric power, this can also be done underground in closed mines.
It has a long tradition in my country, and was used in mining from the 16th century onward, but not to generate electricity, but to directly drive power machines.
There are even such old systems here in the Harz mountains that are nowadays used to generate electricity.

I think the ICE is a phase-out model, but it will be with us for a long time.
I won't live to see having to buy gasoline at the pharmacy (that's how it was with the first cars).
Whether the world goes down the drain in the meantime and gets rid of us humans bit by bit remains to be seen, but I hope I won't live to see it.


In the meantime, let's have fun with the fact that we still got a decent V8 to enjoy.
I don't see any problems coming up with it, and mine has almost reached the magic 10,000 miles, after which it should last forever.


PS: The Indian should have gone to Sweden, only money does not ensure quality of life, even if he knows that from India and it is probably the same in the USA.

PPS: I earn my money in the steel making industry, some may know how to classify this from an environmental point of view (CO₂ etc.)

Someone once said that "You never have enough money if money is all you have."

 

[Garfy]

You are obviously not well informed.
Read up on the corrosion problems that the French are currently experiencing with their reactors.
The main problem is the age of the equipment, all over Europe.

I would also include Fukushima, but these are only the major events with catastrophic effects, so I would not base my assessment on that.

Germany is not alone in this, by the way.
The Swiss are also getting out.
You can say whatever you want about them, but not that they are significantly influenced by Germany.

The Fukushima power plant was over 20 years old. Like most things, when it gets that old, it needs maintenance on a grand scale. No different than a vehicle that's 20 years old with over 250,000 miles on it; you WILL need to repair/replace a bunch of stuff to get it back into like new performance. Heck, even our Navy's nuclear fleet rarely goes beyond 20 years of age as costs increase significantly to refurbish/restore them. But, to say that nuclear is bad because it is prone to "accidents" after 20 years isn't fair. As I understand it, the U.S. hasn't built a new nuclear plant in over 2 decades so they're due for replacement.

 

[Garfy]

Only if there is a major break through in battery tech.

But you still cannot get past physics. The energy has to come from somewhere and then it needs to fill the storage device.

Lets say you have a 100 Kw battery and you have a 220 volt charger. Assuming zero losses that is 286 amps.

It will take a 10Kw charger 10 hours to charge. That is a 45 amp draw. Most residences cannot add this amount extra draw without adding a larger lead in and a higher rated service box.
It will take 450 total amps to charge.


1 gallon of gasoline equals 33.7 kWh. 3 hours of charge time at 10 Kw to equal 1 gallon of gas.

Imagine 10,000 EV's plugged in every night each pulling in 45 amps, plus what is normally drawn from the power station. That is 450 thousand extra amps of power needing to be generated. What if 1 million EV's are plugged in?

Where is this power coming from? It sure is not solar and wind unless we want to give up all our farm land.

There is nothing that can compare to oil for energy density and ease of use.

Not only that but from what I've read, you can't fast charge an EV battery beyond 80% of capacity. They warn you not to do that without risking damage to the battery. So the rest of the 20% is done with a standard rate charger like the one you have installed at home. Frankly, I'm not excited about waiting 45 minutes to get 80% charge into my car then have to get home and "top it off" for who knows how much longer. A 5-minute fill-up of my ICE vehicle is much more productive.

 

[Garfy]

Also, companies are already working on ways to leverage EV's as mass energy storage devices (batteries) to support the grid. This means every EV connected to a charger that is sitting at 100% could instead be offloading back energy into your house or even back to the grid.

Vehicle-to-Home and Vehicle-to-Grid are all well under development with large financial investments.

https://www.virta.global/vehicle-to-grid-v2g

https://cleantechnica.com/2022/08/21/1st-vehicle-to-grid-system-on-nyc-grid-launches/

Ford already did that with the F-150 Lightning which can provide power to your house in case of power outages, though it won't last too long doing that. Problem with EVs is that they tout a long driving range but they won't tell you that's with a single occupant (driver) in it. I read an article where just hooking up a small trailer to the Lightning dropped the range down to about 100 miles, whereas an ICE F-150 might lose some mpg with a trailer hooked up, but it won't be cut in half like the EV truck, plus it can be refueled and on it's way in a matter of a few minutes vs. 3/4 of an hour.

 

[Garfy]

I'm going to share my take on EV vs gas. Keeping in mind that I'm in the EV AND gas repair industy, just not Ford-related.

EV IS in fact being forced. Look at California; and typically what California does is followed by the rest of the USA. Maybe not 100% the same, but it is followed. By 2035, California is banning the sale of new gasoline powered cars (I didn't look at the regulation, maybe they excluded diesel??). So with current tech, this leaves us with EV, hydrogen, or perhaps some kind of alternative fueled vehicle(s), EV seems to be what they're pushing based on the many credits and such that they offer. Gas cars aren't going away, but there's speculation that they will be taxed heavily--meaning "they" want them gone via making them prohibitively expensive to own/maintain/repair. It's actually starting to happen already. BUT that doesn't mean that EV is the way of the future, EV carries their own sets of problems, and lots of them.

--Lack of infrastructure (they passed legislation to address this, albeit it was a very small amount of money in the grand scheme of things that need to be done).
--Lack of supplies to make them (chips, batteries, etc)--most of the supplies come from overseas, which doesn't help US manufacturing all that much. Legislation is in the works to "bring manufacturing back (in the case of chips) but that does not solve the problem, it makes it more expensive.
--lack of motivation for our 'society of convenience' to own them considering all of the negatives of owning an EV. I'll get into this a little more in a minute
--EV has a shorter range than gas (I don't care who says what, the 3 legged dog statement applies here)-they do have a shorter range as a whole.
--They are expensive. The way that "they" are going about this is to force more regulation on gas cars, that make them more and more expensive. So your $95,000 GT500, $80,000 Bronco, $85,000 F-250's, $100,000 F-350, etc--all look "good" in comparison to a $75,000 EV...
--Fewer choices with EV cars, and I believe that's going to change.

So lets talk about EV. As a technician who works on them almost daily, I work closely with the public relating to them. MOST people that buy them are after the whole "drive green" thing as well as they think that they're saving money by not having to buy fuel. The reality is that they're trading one set of issues with another. One lady bought a new one and traded in a gas car that was low mileage and completely paid for (no payments). Her insurance went up, taxes went up, she took on a payment, but hey, don't say I didn't try to tell her. I did in fact advise her that financially in her situation, it made no sense unless she has a few million in cash to 'play with' (and the credit app did not show that, FAR from it actually). But what got her was all of the social and mainstream media constantly shoving it down her (and our) throats that EV is being pushed (Forced?). She caved and bought one. So then as a service tech I have to introduce myself to her and explain a few things. First, think of your new EV this way. You have to "fill it up" every day, and if you don't have a dedicated way to fill it (dedicated charging post), you really should think about getting one as the slow charging may not suffice. Secondly the day you buy it, the vehicle can be thought of as having a 15 gallon fuel tank. Every day from now on, your fuel tank will get smaller (battery will lose capacity over time). This is completely normal. Your battery pack has a 10 year/100,000 mile limited warranty, and I suggest reading the warranty statement in full, or hire an attorney to read it for you so you know what to expect. In short, it means that if it fails prematurely due to a manufacturing defect, they will replace it. It DOES NOT mean that normal degradation is going to get you a free battery, in fact after many years of ownership when the battery normally degrades, you'll have to replace it--and they are expensive. Not only is it expensive but the supplier who we use charges us $6 per pound to dispose of the old one, which we pass on to all customers. People don't understand that, they think of a 50lb car battery, $6 a pound, big deal that's $300. "I can afford that". An EV battery can be 500-1000 lbs, times $6/lb. It adds additional cost to your replacement, then add in labor charges. I have seen some get upward of $20,000 in today's market costs. That is a real cost born by real customers. At that cost, some have decided not to repair the vehicle and some have abandoned them altogether and just bought new ones. Abaondoned cars can't have much done with them other than charge/sue the owner for the costs involved, then try to get ownership of it, then they might be able to fix/sell or just crush it--but not until ownership is transferred (Titling nightmares....). yes this has happened. That in itself brings into question, where you gonna store junked EV's? All the yards around here won't take them because of liability of the batteries, and $6/lb to dispose of the batteries eats into their costs, which decreases how much they make on the parts they sell from the car + crush value, compared with the escalating costs of keeping the doors open (insurance is a HUGE deal here...).

Lack of infrastructure. It takes a while to charge EV's on normal current. If you have access to a fast charger, which there are zero of them in this area (100 mi radius), it can take up to 30-40 minutes for a charge. But some EV manufacturers don't recommend doing a lot of fast charging as it can degrade the battery quicker than normal, in fact the ECU tracks it as I understand and that information can be stored then read by the repair facility. How they use that info is up to them--and the manufacturer (warranty dept?). So that leaves your normal charging. Imagine a few million cars all plugged into the house all at the same time. Power plants are going to have to make changes for more generation capacity, which they do not currently have. In our case our power comes from the nuke plant. They're looking at building a third reactor, which also means they're going to have to acquire the land to do it, which also means forcing people out of their homes among many other potential issues. Then they're gonna have to incrase the number and sizes of the wiring from the gen plant to the masses, a HUGE undertaking (and quite expensive). Who's gonna pay for all that? The government has passed legislation that "gives" I think $14B to implement some of this, but that amount of money is tiny in the grand scheme of things. Also--on power generation, since they want fossil fuel to disappear, they want more solar, wind, and hydro plants to be "built". Solar only works when the sun's out, so at night they're not charging. Wind only works when/where the wind blows and it don't blow here, right now the wind speed is at exactly zero and it is like this from May through October. Then the only time it blows is when it's cold, rainy, or in a tornado. Seriously, I am no joking. I realize that other areas don't have this kind of weather. Secondly on wind power, turbines need maintenance so putting them way out to sea, although might seem like a good idea, is going to cost a lot of money to maintain/repair them. Not even mentioning the impact that they create on the environment, they don't really directly pollute (until they fall into miles deep water, or burn up) but again, they are simply trading one set of problems for another. Hydro? Give me a break. It only works at dams that are in a very special set of circumstances, you can't just dam up any river or creek and expect to generate enough electricity to feed "that" many houses/cars/apartments. There is one up the road built in 1969, 200 foot from the normal lake level to the normal river level, 2 turbines, generating 88MW total. It is a huge dam, it totally changed the landscape (TOTALLY!!), and it only works when the river (now lake) feeding it is at/above a certain level-once it gets low like it is right now, it doesn't gen much. It can't. It can run the lake dry and flood downstream. And, it totally changed the environment downstream, as the water coming through the turbines is about 50 degrees F where the lake surface temp might be in the 90's like it is right now. Tailwaters are cold, it's always foggy, and the cool water and lower air temps create a completely different climate. TOTALLY different! Above the dam (lake) is normal for this area; below is like a JUNGLE, because the cool water cools the air around it, moisture from the humidity condenses on all the trees' leaves, branches, drips to the ground, cools everything off, and plants and animals that are non-native to this are are becoming quite common. Some invasive.

Motivation to buy EV. Many of us don't want them, We know the inconveniences of owning/operating them. They are a little simpler in some ways, but much more complex in others--again we're trading one set of problems for another, meaning the entire country (society) will have to make the same changes, creating a huge economical potential, and destroying another. We ARE a society of convenience, we pay extra for things that are easier to get, hence the reason there's a convenience store on every corner. Yeah we can just pop in and grab a can of dew or whatever, and be gone in 1 minute. Sonic drive in, convenience. The food sucks, the service sucks, but we don't even have to get out of our cars to get food, and that's the only reason they're still around. EV? Less convenient because every day after we get off work we gotta remember to go plug the car in. What if ya forget? You get halfway to work, and you ain't got enough juice to climb the hill, so you're stuck. Call a tow truck, pay 'em $250 (Current ev tow rate up to 15 miles radius here), tow it back to the house so you can charge. Call in work because you couldn't make it. That's gonna hurt your credibility at work, and if you have a corporate job where you're just a number? You may not have a job tomorrow depending on what mood the boss is in.

As you can see there are hundreds of challenges we're facing with EV.

Another....range. Or lack of it. Sure so-and-such says you can go 500 miles on a charge. BUT what they don't tell you (again, experience speaking) is that 500 miles is theoretical and under a set of conditions that do not exist in this area. We got hills. It gets hot. It rains. It snows, it gets cold. So if your range is under "optimal conditions", those conditions that are sub-optimal degrade your range. Say you want to go on vacation. You plan months ahead of time, let's say it's a 600 mile drive one way. You're looking for charging stations. There's maybe 4 of them along the way and none are "fast chargers". So then you have to look at a motel stay for the night while your car charges. Adds cost and time. You get there, one place to charge, 9 miles away from your motel or beachfront condo, so what do you do? Rent a bike? Uber? Adds cost and time. If you have a week of vacation time, you will eat up 4 days of it in travel, leaving you with 1 or 2 maybe 3 if you're lucky to actually vacate. Back on range subject, if you have to climb hills, range will drop based on vehicle load. If you haul more weight (wife, kids, etc) range will drop. The a/c is a heat pump that runs continually to keep the car cool in the summer, that also degrades range. Wind? Your foot is into the "throttle" a little more to overcome a headwind, also degrades range. Rainwater on the road decreases range via causing more rolling resistance. Cold air degrades range. Hot air degrades range. So what's the option? You still have to own a gas car for longer trips.

I'll use my own economic example. I have zero debt. I own my house. I own my truck and my Mustang; although both are mostly broken at the moment (won't go there right now....). So the government is saying by 2035 I cannot buy a gas car. So that leaves me with options. One, keep fixing my oil burners, which I believe they'll also limit somehow (and the market will also limit my ability to do so), or go into debt to buy a new EV which has it's limitations. I'm not going into debt. I've been debt free since 2009. I live on pennies, and I make pennies. For those that think I'm made of millions, think about this: I work for $15.52/hr, my bills are taxes, insurance, retirement, and all that...food, fuel, etc. The budget at the end of the month? I'm lucky to have $180 left and if it is left, it goes into savings for a rainy day fund, of which currently is $9,400. Barely enough to live on for 6 months. So I cannot afford a $900/mo car payment and I refuse to. If they want me to go into debt for an EV, they're gonna have to figure out a way to cancel my EV debt the same way they've done with college debt. That's the only way. Until then, I'll keep my multi-colored body panel old oil burners, and I'll keep fixing them. Y'all think it's funny but it's not that funny when you feel pressured to go into a debt that you simply cannot afford.

Anyone wondering why so many are fleeing California for other states like NV, UT, AZ, TX, etc.?

 

[sk47]

The Fukushima power plant was over 20 years old. Like most things, when it gets that old, it needs maintenance on a grand scale. No different than a vehicle that's 20 years old with over 250,000 miles on it; you WILL need to repair/replace a bunch of stuff to get it back into like new performance. Heck, even our Navy's nuclear fleet rarely goes beyond 20 years of age as costs increase significantly to refurbish/restore them. But, to say that nuclear is bad because it is prone to "accidents" after 20 years isn't fair. As I understand it, the U.S. hasn't built a new nuclear plant in over 2 decades so they're due for replacement.

Hello; Fukushima failure was more an act of nature plus a design flaw. The big tidal wave overtopped things. The design flaw was putting the backup generators at a low level so they were knocked out by the waves also.

 

[sk47]

Anyone wondering why so many are fleeing California for other states like NV, UT, AZ, TX, etc.?

Hello; I live in eastern TN and have met some refugees from California myself.

 

[Garfy]

Get over it. iCE engines are on the way out. The vast majority of people couldn’t give two shits about engine sounds, feelings, V8s or whatever. They just want a vehicle to get from point a to b.

The problem is if point A is NYC and point B is LA. I'd hate to think how many hours of lost time is wasted fast charging the EV to 80% and then continuing the journey where the ICE vehicle is refueled in 5 minutes each time.

 

[Ogopogo]

LOL

You can't get past physics. It would take a charge rate of 450 amps to charge a 100 kWh battery in the time it takes to fill a gas tank.

We used 250 kwh to weld 1/2 thick steel.

Battery technology will potentially get us there with different materials and perhaps even solid state batteries. The superchargers are now pretty much limited to 350 kwh due to connector size but may increase over time with an 800V charging standard. At this point, a lot is possible in as little as 10 years.

Consensus has also been reached on megawatt chargers for semi-trucks https://www.greencarreports.com/new...ops-megawatt-charging-standard-electric-semis The challenge, of course, will be the supply of such power demands and that will limit megawatt chargers likely to the vicinity of arterial corridors, e.g. the US interstate system and other truck routes. We may see some electric semis on the roads in some number by 2030.

Even though I am an old guy, I think it is a fascinating time to be observing such changes occurring in technology. Pull up a chair and have some popcorn over the next 10 years as this unfolds (or not).

 

[Garfy]

EVs didn’t take off until Tesla made them useable, an ev is cheaper and easier to maintain than an ICE vehicle.

It certainly is a "different" kind of maintenance. Anyone who's looked into them seriously knows that it's not like a slot car that merely has a motor and drive system. EVs have cooling systems that need to be maintained. Yes, coolant, like antifreeze/coolant, radiator, water pumps, hoses, etc. which are required for the motors as well as the inverter control unit which emits a lot of heat when in a high load condition. Take the floor off the "frunk" in the Ford Mach-e and you reveal the cooling systems and other components underneath. It would be great if EVs merely had a battery and motor drive system with nothing else to maintain, but unfortunately they don't.

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