It is possible (and I use the term cautiously) that the UK has reached a level where virus spread is now largely restricted by host availability. I am not using the term herd immunity because it is not the correct term. With as many as 90% of adults having had their first dose in some parts together with naturally infected people it is looking good. Obviously some cities and certain ethnic groups have lower vaccine penetration and concomitant higher case numbers, particularly the NE cities in the UK but cases are now falling for the first time without restrictions being applied. I believe this is the first country to show this as although Israel had good initial vaccine rates the delta strain has caused them some problems.
Yep it looks like the UK's latest wave peaked a few days ago. US seems to be weeks behind so we will be going up for a few more weeks.
Have you seen any data emerge relating to the current line-up of vaccines and their efficacy against the Delta strain?
CASE fatality rate (CFR) is quite clearly stated as the data-set being reported.
So the last question is probably the most subjective and complicated, but certainly initial suggestions are that a first dose of vaccine acts in a similar way to the second dose in people that have previously had COVID, but the time post infection is important. There is good evidence that a longer gap between first and second dose is beneficial, but there comes a point where the gap is too long to generate the required anamnestic response. The main problem is the natural infection has unpredictable effects on the immune system compared to the vaccine, so you don't quite know what you are 'boosting' in effect. So current UK advice is to get both doses even if you have previously had the infection.
In addition the US is so big that taking national figures is very risky. Some states in the US have dreadfully low vaccination rates and when 'delta' strain gets a hold as it is doing, it will be catastrophic in those areas. It is hugely more transmissible than the previous 'alpha' or 'Kent' strain. In the UK we went from a mix of strains to 99%'delta' in a few weeks - it has completely dominated all the other strains (99%). In some states the worst is yet to come.
That was my point. CFR is not close to the IFR - it never is, especially for a new disease. IFR is the reality. Based on CDC estimates, we are over 120 million infections in the US. Which gives an IFR of about 0.5%
You can't even look at the state level. It really comes down to county - and likely the same in every country. Rural, low population density counties have much lower vaccination rates - even in Northern states that overall have higher vaccination.
Agree. Interestingly the opposite is true in the UK where rural communities have the highest vaccination rates and inner cities the lowest, especially where certain ethnic groups form the majority of the residents. Education and demonstration of data / personal experiences of the devastating effects of COVID are helping to drive up vaccination rates.
well then by GOD starting handing out Ivermectin like tic-tacs and deploy i-mask+ so as to keep them from having to darken your GD door! If you refuse to believe what your fellow USA doctors have put together, run your own damn trial and see if it bears out as claimed. If not, then CNN will beat a path to your door to discredit the rabble that dares to oppose Fraud-Ci.
Well done - your study of 13 people. As you would know if you had even partially understood a small part of what has been discussed on here the hospitalisation rate is really quite low in those under 50 and rises to as much as 1 in 5 for over 80's.
