Fossil Fuels are Not the Enemy

[shogun32]

From today's WSJ:
Plug-in EV sales in Europe were up 137% to 1.4 million vehicles last year, blowing past China's 12% increase to 1.3 million sales. In the U.S., sales rose just 4%.

But these sales have been helped along by government incentives and analysts are starting to warn that the momentum could be short lived when the subsidies dry up. Without government incentives, EVs become "considerably more expensive" than traditional ICE vehicles.

Arndt Ellinghorst, auto analyst at Bernstein Research, told the Journal: “The market is extremely sensitive to government and company discounts. Once subsidies are taken away EV sales will collapse by 30-40% at least for one or two quarters.


And from the arctic north we have:
The overwhelming majority of Chevy Bolt EV units that were sold in Canada last year (4000) were purchased in Quebec, with roughly 75 percent of sales attributed to the French-speaking region in 2020. ... The Quebec government offers an $8,000 rebate on new EV purchases, which compounds with the federal iZEV rebate for maximum savings of around $13,000.


Forget the very real issue of last-mile capacity, if you have to incentivize/bribe people to buy a non-economic good, you're doing it wrong. I'm sure all the other tax payers in Quebec are just tickled pink their rich(?) neighbors are robbing them to "save the planet". Brussels will never admit it, but ICE is here to stay for 30 more years at least and likely permanently.

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[shogun32]

this never gets old either. The twat from NY really should read up a bit.
https://cei.org/blog/wrong-again-50-years-of-failed-eco-pocalyptic-predictions/

 

[sk47]

Tesla’s Early Vehicles Are Becoming a Study on EV Battery Longevity (msn.com)
Hello; I just read the above link. A part which caught my attention was the cost of a replacement battery pack. That cost being equal to the value of the car the first time around.
That being the case on the current 10 to 13 year old Tesla's then I guess today a person could look around and buy an old ICE vehicle. What about ten years from now when EV's are all that are being sold. Does not seem like a good plan to have a ten plus year old car which needs such an expensive part.
I have a 20 year old car which I bought new. It is an ICE and still runs OK. Outside of regular wear parts the only unexpected expense has been an antitheft part which failed. I would be on a second battery pack heading for a third if it was an EV.

 

[Veteran]

Just to take things a little further.
How many centuries does the world have ? EV, fossil etc is all just temporary.
The world has developed like crazy in the last 150 years.
We cannot sustain the levels of procreation and raw material usage .
Let’s face it, we either have to find another planet at some point, or undergo mass extermination.
I’m talking in the next couple of hundred years, perhaps less ?
We have to start making a plan and hope that AI and technology comes to the rescue.
For now I’m gonna continue being a dick and burn as much fossil fuel as I can. The gasoline era will come to a end, so I better enjoy whilst we can ?

 

[sox3]

Just to take things a little further.
How many centuries does the world have ? EV, fossil etc is all just temporary.
The world has developed like crazy in the last 150 years.
We cannot sustain the levels of procreation and raw material usage .
Let’s face it, we either have to find another planet at some point, or undergo mass extermination.
I’m talking in the next couple of hundred years, perhaps less ?
We have to start making a plan and hope that AI and technology comes to the rescue.
For now I’m gonna continue being a dick and burn as much fossil fuel as I can. The gasoline era will come to a end, so I better enjoy whilst we can ?

Soylent green?

 

[Veteran]

Soylent green?

I actually thought of that as I was writing yes. Maybe old sci-fi , but so we’re the many things that eventually manifested

 

[sk47]

Just to take things a little further.
How many centuries does the world have ? EV, fossil etc is all just temporary.
The world has developed like crazy in the last 150 years.
We cannot sustain the levels of procreation and raw material usage .
Let’s face it, we either have to find another planet at some point, or undergo mass extermination.
I’m talking in the next couple of hundred years, perhaps less ?
We have to start making a plan and hope that AI and technology comes to the rescue.
For now I’m gonna continue being a dick and burn as much fossil fuel as I can. The gasoline era will come to a end, so I better enjoy whilst we can ?

Hello; Back in the 80's and 90's I used an analogy that if every one on earth used resources the way some in more wealthy countries did we would need five more planets the size of earth to supply the raw materials. may be too much hype.

Hello; Yes the fossil fuels will a some point be too hard to extract in amounts needed to sustain even current energy needs. There will have to be a transition to some sort of other energy source if current energy use and future increased energy use trends are to be met. That somehow new tech will make this happen is often the corner stone of wishful thinking. Back in the very early 2000's it was predicted wee were at or approaching peak oil production and some had pegged a serious global decline at around 2005. Well a couple of new tech items changed this for a while and by 2020 there was again plenty of oil to go around and it looked like this abundance could continue for some time.
I suspect this was awful news to those who are among the true believers that fossil fuels and global warming are the prime evils the world faces. A sort of panic that there will be enough oil and coal to rend the planet if all that is available is used.

Hello; I have other things much higher on my list of threats to the human condition than fossil fuels. Erosion of topsoil and loss of good farm land are two. Around me in rural TN farms are often sold off as small lots for housing. There are a few other items that outrank fossil fuels. I did make a personal plan. I decided to remain childless back when I was 25 years old. At 73 I managed to do that thing. A reduced and stable population was the very best idea we had back in the 1970's but such did not happen.

Hello; Could some sort of new tech of invention bail us out? I do not know but decided not to count on it.

 

[HoosierDaddy]

Just to take things a little further.
How many centuries does the world have ? EV, fossil etc is all just temporary.
The world has developed like crazy in the last 150 years.
We cannot sustain the levels of procreation and raw material usage .
Let’s face it, we either have to find another planet at some point, or .......

I vote for the hitchhiker's guide solution. Tell all the politicians, bureaucrats, celebs and other dead wood we found the perfect planet and we're sending them ahead to prepare it for the rest of it. If we do it right, it only costs us enough rocket fuel to get them a few hundred feet.

 

[raptor17GT]

I vote for the hitchhiker's guide solution. Tell all the politicians, bureaucrats, celebs and other dead wood we found the perfect planet and we're sending them ahead to prepare it for the rest of it. If we do it right, it only costs us enough rocket fuel to get them a few hundred feet.

it wouldn't even need to leave the launch pad (in one piece anyways)

 

[HoosierDaddy]

it wouldn't even need to leave the launch pad (in one piece anyways)

Except for plausible deniability.

 

[Hobohunter]

We cannot sustain the levels of procreation and raw material usage .

The first half of this sentence may be less true than you think. There's a TED talk with a guy named Hans Rosling that makes a really strong case for world population increasing up to about 10 billion and then staying flat or declining. Procreation has been either steady or slightly declining everywhere but China and Africa, and China has been declining pretty strongly which shouldn't come as much of a surprise since they've had a 1 child policy.
The biggest takeaway from the video that I got was that the increase in world population isn't because people are having more kids than ever before, but with advances in health care and technology more people are surviving childhood, and average lifespans are increasing.
Actually, it's not a TED talk, but something similar:

 

[shogun32]

that the increase in world population isn't because people are having more kids than ever before, but with advances in health care and technology more people are surviving childhood, and average lifespans are increasing.

which is clearly injurious to Gaia. Hence the Complete Lives System.

 

[raptor17GT]

it wouldn't even need to leave the launch pad (in one piece anyways)

Except for plausible deniability.

heh heh, possibly but that shit can go big boom anytime but true if it's off the ground then maybe not so obvious and also not damage the launch pad for the next lot of privileged travellers

 

[Trap]

To me even though I am a fan of the gasoline engine, time and technology are always changing, when the first cars came out many didn't want them as they we're very unreliable and couldn't go all that many places at that time compared to a horse and wagon.
I remember the burning sensations I used to get from the unburnt leaded fuel from the cars in the 60's. We thought that cars we're doomed to be boring from then on when unleaded fuel and Cat's became mandatory. Today a 5.0L coyote has as much power or more than most of the muscle cars of the 60's did, way better fuel mileage too. As much as I liked the cars of the 60's they sure are crap compared to todays cars.

The EV is another in the progression of the industry and time. Was always told the only thing for sure in life is change.

PS: Doesn't mean I like it at the time, but change usually works out for the good. (Eventually)

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