Gas prices dropping soon?

[ice445]

There are fluctuations, but I don't see prices falling significantly any time soon.

It comes down to principles really. The EU has made a significant decision to stop using Russian oil (and probably gas later) to a large extent. This will have short term impacts on price again. If countries keep buying Russian oil it bankrolls Russian aggression. Yes it will hurt, but if you just keep pumping money into Russia then nothing will change. Easy to criticize governments, but those with responsibility have tough decisions to make that will hurt either way.

Putin will not live forever (rumours about his health continue to circulate) but if the regime succeeds then he will just be replaced by Putin v2.0. Pressure will have an effect at some point internally, as it did in the 1990's. Russia cannot survive as another PDRK pariah. This is a world war in effect already, just being fought in one country (and let's hope it stays that way)

Oh I know, that was a sarcastic comment. There's no relief coming any time soon. The US still has it relatively easy compared to the rest of the world, but it's still annoying and it bleeds into every other transaction you make these days.

With that said, I disagree these sanctions are doing anything meaningful. Europe is simply cutting off its nose to spite its face at this point. Putin picked the perfect time to engage in this "special military operation" since the world energy market is still reeling from covid's demand cratering effects. His move to force EU countries to buy gas in Rubles was a hilarious uno reverse card. Like sure, the sanctions will eventually reduce the quality of life of the average Russian substantially, but I don't see how that's any meaningful victory. Putin is bankrolling with energy sales, and he's made more than enough while making a fool of Europe the whole time. Even if the EU eventually cuts all imports, it will be too little, too late. And there's still not even a guarantee that everyone will be on board, since some countries like Hungary and Germany are hit disproportionately hard by cutting those imports.

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[sk47]

Have been in and out multiple times in last months on the extreme volatility holding for max 3 weeks and as little as 2 days.

This is not investing - it's pure rigged casino gambling with $B algos on $10B supercomputers in a game of musical chairs.

The only difference is I can hold it until the next energy turf war if I'm standing when the music stops.

I have reduced my over all oil exposure by 50 % because it's clear oil is a massive bubble....there are hundreds of full tankers looking for customers incl RU who has 27M bbl on their own fleet selling at up to 40% discount to Brent.

Few on the production side are commiting any material funds to increasing production at all....they know what they are doing.

A 400m bbl global SPR could happen any day to derisk our elections shaving $30 bbl in an instant.

The political risk on oil is off the charts. Gas is a no brainer...it's a permanent 800% price increase for 400 M Europeans.

7.5B folks are getting oil at 30-40% discount and the other 11% are paying full list price haha.

I should shift a lot into the emerging markets who will grow like crazy as a lot of production shifts to the 89% of the planet with low energy costs and few pollution rules.

Now if only we can get the COVID mothballed refineries up and find another source for the diesel additive so the gas stations don't run dry!

Maybe CA will ban 59% of vehicles 3 days a week so the rest of us can enjoy 10 mpg haha

[Quote Gregs24]
"It comes down to principles really. The EU has made a significant decision to stop using Russian oil (and probably gas later) to a large extent. This will have short term impacts on price again. If countries keep buying Russian oil it bankrolls Russian aggression. Yes it will hurt, but if you just keep pumping money into Russia then nothing will change. Easy to criticize governments, but those with responsibility have tough decisions to make that will hurt either way."

Hello; The comments I made bold from two posts above sum up the situation to a degree. Russian oil will make it onto the market in some manner. Already are places getting the oil at a discount. I personally do not have the numbers down pat so cannot get into how close or how far off the figures may be. I do understand the concept however. Some are buying oil at a discount while others are paying top dollar.

The "principles" notion is cute. Before the Russian invasion a common take was that Ukraine had one of the most corrupt governments around. Russia has a corrupt government is also a common take. In the end whichever way the invasion plays out it is likely a corrupt government will be in control in Ukraine.
The ordinary people of Ukraine are paying a physical price to be sure. I get how the death and destruction generates tons of sympathy. I do not like to see the reports. It would be nice to think all the maneuvering is being done for the sake of the Ukrainian people based on some sort of principal.
After the withdraw of USA from Afghanistan last year I will need some more convincing about the "principal" notion. One of the thirteen soldiers killed was from a small community about 50 miles from me, Gibbs. I drove to Gibbs High School to attend the public funeral ceremony. We filled the football stadium. A common thought was "this did not have to happen." "I should not be here to honor this fallen neighbor".

 

[Gregs24]

If we are doing this to punish them, we are failing miserably. They are making money hand over fist right now. At the beginning of this, the projections looked like a massive 30% contraction in their economy. It now looks like the Russian economy will actually grow this year bankrolled by the massive increase in natural gas prices. They have showed the world how to survive outside of sanctions and swift. They have lost major corporations allowing smaller Russian companies to grow from the ashes.

I don’t have the answer but what I do know is what we are doing is only hurting ourselves. If this is a world war we are losing badly. Europe is going to mess around and get cut off from Russian gas. They would be a third world state overnight. No power. No heat. No escape.

Mmmm - not exactly ! It varies by country but many have plenty of alternatives.

What I do know is pumping money into the regime sure isn't going to help.

 

[sk47]

Mmmm - not exactly ! It varies by country but many have plenty of alternatives.

What I do know is pumping money into the regime sure isn't going to help.

Hello; OK, I'll bite. What are some of the plenty of alternatives?

Let me try to make the point again that others have clearly already made. Russia has oil that is needed. Not sort of needed. Not nice to have but we can easily do without it. Not an amount of oil easy to replace. Russian leaders knew this and took advantage. They hold some aces in this hand.

I also get you are against Russia on "principal". The principled stand taken by some countries will mean hard times for some people in those countries. There will be haves and have-nots in these countries. If you as an individual are among the have-nots then I can somewhat admire your principled stand. If, however, you are insulated from the suffering it becomes merely a gesture and you are a poser. Rules for thee, but not for me sort of chap.

 

[Gregs24]

There are always alternatives but there are few alternatives that are cheap, somewhat clean, and available in quantity.

And by Europe, I am talking about German. If they get cut off from Russian gas the EU falls apart.

What we need is diplomacy. I don’t want to see 7 dollar a gallon gas.

I think Hungary has more issues than Germany. The Germans intend to diversify supply and wean themselves of Russian gas pretty quickly.

Agree re diplomacy, but you have to have negotiators that are prepared to negotiate, and Lavrov has demonstrated he is not prepared to do that realistically. Appeasement has failed before with tyrants, they just keep coming back for more.

 

[K4fxd]

$4.05 yesterday, $4.69 today.......

 

[K4fxd]

Russia has oil that is needed.

Actually OPEC and the US could cover the Russian supply shortage.

 

[FreePenguin]

My econo Scion tC cost me 60 to fill today… I filled for 18 dollars under trump at one point.
Sad how things change in just few years

 

[sk47]

Actually OPEC and the US could cover the Russian supply shortage.

Hello; Yes to this. We pretty much understand why the USA reserves are not in the mix. While i have heard some reasons why OPEC does not want to step up right now , I do not know enough to have confidence in those given reasons. But my take is there are reserves which could be tapped and are not currently.

 

[sk47]

Once you step outside of the mainstream propaganda flow the reality is the west has no reason to try to negotiate. The US just got out of a decade long war and need another bogie man. 40 billon dollars was just printed to assure weapons remain in that area for years if not decades.

And one question I can’t seem to get a straight answer for. If Russia was planning on putting nukes in Mexico, would we stand by or invade Mexico? Serous question.

Hello; You have two good points. There were 80 or so billion $$$ worth of military gear abandoned in Afghanistan which will be replaced. Now we are spending 40 billion $$ in some ways about Ukraine. On top of that a lot of USA military inventory has and is being sent to Ukraine which will be replaced.
All part of the military industrial complex (MIC) coupled with spending. My guess is some significant part of that 40 billion for Ukraine will wind up going to military equipment manufacturers. If history holds another portion of those billions will be siphoned off by the corruption in Ukraine. Even if 100% goes to good causes it is 40 billions of dollars we do not have and will add to the national debt and increase inflation.

The other point being, in my opinion, that the MIC wants a shooting war somewhere all the time so materials are consumed. The better choice is someplace where important food or other resources do not come from, but Ukraine will do. And yes we saw back in 1963 (the year i turned 16) that we would not tolerate nukes in Cuba. I do not doubt any such move by China, Russia or anyone else to put nukes in Mexico would be tolerated.

Ukraine was part of the USSR and broke away not that long ago. It would be like Texas or California breaking away from the USA and later the USA trying to get them back.

 

[Gregs24]

My econo Scion tC cost me 60 to fill today… I filled for 18 dollars under trump at one point.
Sad how things change in just few years

When oil prices collapsed because of covid.

Global price, not US centric price

 

[Gregs24]

Once you step outside of the mainstream propaganda flow the reality is the west has no reason to try to negotiate. The US just got out of a decade long war and need another bogie man. 40 billon dollars was just printed to assure weapons remain in that area for years if not decades.

And one question I can’t seem to get a straight answer for. If Russia was planning on putting nukes in Mexico, would we stand by or invade Mexico? Serous question.

Why would they need to put nukes in Mexico, they can fire them just fine from where they are.

A straight answer for a question nobody is asking!

 

[K4fxd]

When oil prices collapsed because of covid.

You have a selective memory. I was paying $2.35 for 93 up to the Covid (self censored content) The 3rd day after the admin change gas prices started to climb.

Europe was warned about relying on Russian gas and oil along with supposed green energy.

 

[K4fxd]

We pretty much understand why the USA reserves are not in the mix.

I don't know that I'd call them reserves, that congers up oil in storage tanks. The issue is the oil companies are not allowed to recover the oil in the ground in many places. Anwr being one of them.

 

[LSchicago]

You have a selective memory. I was paying $2.35 for 93 up to the Covid (self censored content) The 3rd day after the admin change gas prices started to climb.

Europe was warned about relying on Russian gas and oil along with supposed green energy.

Actually May 2020 was the lowest, it went up from there. You can see the curve in January was already well on it's way up. As people returned to work, demand shot up.

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