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Fossil Fuels are Not the Enemy

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shogun32

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And the argument against $15 is supported by economics theory and the GAO agrees.
not to mention real life experiences. Just look at the fantastic success it's been for Seattle.
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...we are a bunch of enthusiasts on a car forum and I suspect we represent a pretty small segment of society that are actually all that concerned about seeing fossil fuels become less available or our mighty beast replaced by mindless EV's...
I agree. I am 55 and my son is 21. My son has no interest in automobiles, but is extremely enthusiastic about automation. He hopes that city transportation becomes more automated and will gladly relocate to such a place. My wife’s friends (in their 50’s) do not understand why I still drive a car with a manual transmission. Most of her friends are hoping to see self-driving vehicles in the near future. Remember the Wedway People Mover of the mid-70’s? With Wedway, the seemingly harmless amusement ride presented an experience with self-driven EV transportation technology while you outwardly observed potential urban planning for the cities of tomorrow. The first time I experienced the ride at the age of 11, I remember that I was taken in by the awe and wonder of the moment. A little later myself and the family had a seat for a bite to eat in the same area of the amusement park, and I remember a conversation concerning the ride. My father (muscle car enthusiast) said to my brother (5 years older than me and also a muscle car fan) something to the effect that Wedway is not your friend and that someday very large corporations will be making the rules and telling you how to live.

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shogun32

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Most of her friends are hoping to see self-driving vehicles in the near future
the problem is all the marketing glitz fails to mention that computers are fallible, that software is egregiously shoddy crap written by people who can't/won't follow mandated safety practices or just make mind-numbing mistakes by the legion.

We can't get Boeing control software or Mars lander software right, what makes you think we're gonna get automated driving done right let alone securely? NHTSA certifications won't revive your mutilated carcass when it all goes pear shaped. Hell, road crews can't even manage to plow an elevated ramp properly so as to not launch a truck into a 70ft fall onto the roadway below. The Census Bureau's new parking garage (2005?) collapsed because the grounds crew piled the snow on the upper deck and overloaded the stressed concrete, instead of shoving it over the side, or leaving it the hell alone.

The point is mankind is universally STUPID and INCOMPETENT at every level and at every activity. Using a computer just makes the disaster come on faster and with more lethality.
 
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EFI

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So a spot of weather and the electrical grid is falling apart? What if the grid ratio was more biased toward wind and sun? Or there were a million more EVs sitting on chargers?

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/en...tating-outages-cold-weather-tests-limits-grid
What if? We'd all be sitting in the dark twiddling our thumbs just like in the 1700s. But hey, we'd have a fancy electric car sitting chargless in the driveway.

Progress...


Here are some tips to reduce electricity use:

  • Turn down thermostats to 68-degrees.
  • Close shades and blinds to reduce the amount of heat lost through windows.
  • Turn off and unplug non-essential lights and appliances.
  • Avoid using large appliances (i.e., ovens, washing machines, etc.).
 

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HoosierDaddy

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What if? We'd all be sitting in the dark twiddling our thumbs just like in the 1700s.
Would be much worse. The "bring out your dead" folks would be stranded too.
 

Caballus

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the problem is all the marketing glitz fails to mention that computers are fallible, that software is egregiously shoddy crap written by people who can't/won't follow mandated safety practices or just make mind-numbing mistakes by the legion.

We can't get Boeing control software or Mars lander software right, what makes you think we're gonna get automated driving done right let alone securely? NHTSA certifications won't revive your militated carcass when it all goes pear shaped. Hell, road crews can't even manage to plow an elevated ramp properly so as to not launch a truck into a 70ft fall onto the road way below. The Census Bureau's new parking garage (2005?) collapsed because the grounds crew piled the snow on the upper deck and overloaded the stressed concrete, instead of shoving it over the side, or leaving it the hell alone.

The point is mankind is universally STUPID and INCOMPETENT at every level and at every activity. Using a computer just makes the disaster come on faster and with more lethality.
Sounds (reads) like humans are simply imperfect, and degrees of imperfection vary from person to person.
 

Hobohunter

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until heat death of the universe. Or since we terminated our own processing industry, ship it off to the Russians to deal with. There are LOTS of problems with the uranium fuel cycle that does not exist with other fissionable fuels. You can't ever lose water circulation of the spent fuel pool. Which means if the grid goes down you have a spent fuel meltdown. Our reactors are decades past their certified life and the technology is badly outdated. There are better ways to do uranium and we've never implemented it.
No. You need a significantly worse problem than the grid going out to risk a meltdown in the fuel pool. There's no need to have water circulating in the pool to prevent meltdown, that's more of a regulatory requirement than a physical need. All you need is to keep the fuel covered with water. As long as there's water above the top of the spent fuel it cannot meltdown. (And for boiling water reactor fuel this isn't strictly true either, since that fuel sits in the operating reactor partially uncovered, since it's boiling in there). It physically can't happen. The water in the pool can't exceed boiling, 212F, and so the fuel can't ever reach the temperature where it will melt.
A grid failure would prevent outside electrical power from running fuel pool cooling systems and adding makeup water, but the site will have several backup diesel generators and many thousands of gallons of diesel fuel. They also will have alternate means of pumping makeup water to the pool, my plant had a fire department pumper truck for this.
Another consideration is that the water in the pool is not anywhere close to boiling at regular conditions, either. We kept ours somewhere around 100F, and we had a couple dozen feet of water above the top of the fuel. We kept a daily calculation for how many hours we had until the fuel pool would reach boiling if cooling were lost, and a few weeks after new spent fuel was added to the pool from the reactor we had days to weeks to reach that point. And then you have dozens of feet of water to boil off before you can approach meltdown.
There are certainly different ways to do uranium, but it's hardly settled as whether those ways are better. Better in some ways, certainly, but they also have their drawbacks and issues, else you'd see a bunch of these alternative reactors putting power out to the grid right now.
 

shogun32

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A grid failure would prevent outside electrical power from running fuel pool cooling systems and adding makeup water, but the site will have several backup diesel generators and many thousands of gallons of diesel fuel
you're assuming diesel fuel supply will be uninterrupted. Or we in USA are guarenteed less retarded than the Japanese. No power, no pumps. A simple EMP or solar flare, or a few guys with some C4 and wipe out key distribution points, and you'll have nuclear plants going critical all over the place and no way to stop it unless the cooling tanks are below the water table and can be gravity fed at sufficient rate.

It takes 5-10 years of immersion to finally cool the rods down where dry caskets can be used.

What is your daily Gallon Per Hour to keep up with spent fuel pools? Has anyone actually tested turning off the pumps in the pools so it doesn't circulate?

Even Yucca has storage limits based on how much energy the rock can dissipate. Rods in wet storage are emitting massive amounts of heat and if uncovered cause the cladding and tubes to melt. It is by design, an unsafe arrangement short of throwing them into a lake.

The point is our current nuclear infra is needlessly fragile and rife with 1000yr problems. Vastly safer solutions nuclear designs exist and yet we refuse to actually pursue them.

1AI%2FAAAAAAAAAP4%2FpDhXcunGGY8%2Fs1600%2Frecycled.png
 
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Hobohunter

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you're assuming diesel fuel supply will be uninterrupted. Or we in USA are guarenteed less retarded than the Japanese. No power, no pumps. A simple EMP or solar flare, or a few guys with some C4 and wipe out key distribution points, and you'll have nuclear plants going critical all over the place and no way to stop it unless the cooling tanks are below the water table and can be gravity fed at sufficient rate.

What is your daily Gallon Per Hour to keep up with spent fuel pools? Has anyone actually tested turning off the pumps in the pools so it doesn't circulate?

The point is our current nuclear infra is needlessly fragile and rife with 1000yr problems. Vastly safer solutions nuclear designs exist and yet we refuse to actually pursue them.

1AI%2FAAAAAAAAAP4%2FpDhXcunGGY8%2Fs1600%2Frecycled.png
There's no reason to assume diesel fuel supply would be interrupted in a grid blackout, but if you want to consider it, sure. The plant I worked at had somewhere around a quarter of a million gallons of diesel stored onsite, in underground tanks. We had enough to run every diesel generator on site for weeks at full loading. Our backup pumper truck could get water up to the fuel pool for weeks with the amount of fuel we had for it, especially considering you wouldn't need to run it constantly to keep water levels high enough.
I'm not sure what our makeup rate was, and I haven't worked there in a few years now, but it wasn't much. All we had to deal with was evaporation. I doubt anyone turned the pumps off just to see what would happen, that sort of thing can get you in trouble with the NRC.
I'm not sure what you included this graph for, it's not particularly illuminating. Yes, spent nuclear fuel generates waste heat for some time after it's pulled from a reactor. It is low enough within a couple of years that the fuel no longer needs any form of active cooling, and it can be removed from the pool, placed in dry cask storage, and left on a concrete pad until, as you put it earlier, the heat death of the universe. A good rule of thumb for decay heat is that for fuel that was just in a reactor, or still is in the event of a shutdown, is the decay heat in the fuel will be about 10% of the full power of the reactor. So if you have a 1000MW reactor and shut it down the fuel will continue to put out about 100MW of heat.
As a final note I find it hard to believe you've researched anything about nuclear power when you say something to the effect of "all the plants going critical at the same time, and no way to stop it". All criticality means in a reactor is that the power level is exactly stable, or more accurately that the neutron population inside the reactor is not increasing or decreasing. When the reactor is shutdown it's dropped to a really low level and is decreasing slowly but steadily, and is called 'subcritical'. When the neutron population is increasing, like when you change power levels in the operating reactor, the reactor is supercritical, and this is only bad when it's not intended or controlled. Chernobyl blew up because they went extremely supercritical and the reactor changed power extremely quickly and to far too high of a level, causing a steam explosion in their core.
Every U.S. reactor is capable of being shutdown, and therefore subcritical just by inserting all of their control rods. There's no feasible situation where a U.S. reactor can go critical and have no way of stopping it from a grid power loss.
 

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shogun32

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my point was if we have any kind of major disruption to the grid we'll start having fuel pools cook off in a matter of a few months. What if that 1/4 million gallons was all you could get and none further for at least 6 months? Or if an EMP fried the control circuitry of the diesel generators and pump trucks?

None of the other energy sources are a time bomb just waiting for a hiccup to turn the country into a radioactive wasteland. I think nuclear power is a good idea in the abstract, but not as it's been practiced by the USA for half a century.
 

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my point was if we have any kind of major disruption to the grid we'll start having fuel pools cook off in a matter of a few months. What if that 1/4 million gallons was all you could get and none further for at least 6 months? Or if an EMP fried the control circuitry of the diesel generators and pump trucks?

None of the other energy sources are a time bomb just waiting for a hiccup to turn the country into a radioactive wasteland. I think nuclear power is a good idea in the abstract, but not as it's been practiced by the USA for half a century.
The problem with your assumption is pretty much the only thing that could cause the situation you describe is cold war style WW3, and then no one will care that all the nuclear plants are popping off because the country will already be a radioactive wasteland. In order to encounter the situation you're describing there can't be even a small part of a power grid, or any diesel fuel. If that's the case then something absolutely apocalyptic is already occurring.
If we assumed the plant I worked at was running out of diesel and had no other options for months, don't you think the people working there can figure out another way to get water from ground level up a couple hundred feet to the top of the pool? You'd have to assume that not a single pump works on site, including any number of pumps for emergency or maintenance usage, and that there's no way at all to get a suitable pump from the community, drive it onsite, and set it up. And that there's not a single fire department within drivable distance that could lend or rent a pumper truck.
All that really has to happen is for the local grid to be isolated down to enough customers to run any power plant, and then use grid power to run the emergency systems, or run them off the reactor plant if they are the one that can run. It takes way too many extreme situations happening simultaneously to cause a situation where nuclear plants start melting down like this. The only really feasible situation is a natural disaster that causes too much damage to a specific plant or a few plants in a specific region like Fukushima in Japan. Or unsafe operation like Chernobyl. They're simply not the ticking time bombs you're implying.
 

shogun32

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They're simply not the ticking time bombs you're implying.
perhaps. But I have zero confidence in modern man's infallibility however, and we have plenty of enemies who would love to take us down. We've crippled our supply-chain and infrastructure such that we can't actually replace important pieces of it in a timely fashion not to have dire outcomes. And then there's the solar problem which we know happens periodically for which we have no recourse.
 

Hobohunter

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perhaps. But I have zero confidence in modern man's infallibility however, and we have plenty of enemies who would love to take us down. We've crippled our supply-chain and infrastructure such that we can't actually replace important pieces of it in a timely fashion not to have dire outcomes. And then there's the solar problem which we know happens periodically for which we have no recourse.
We absolutely haven't crippled our supply chain or infrastructure, where have you gotten this idea?
If you ever get the opportunity to work as an operator at a nuke plant you'll quickly become confident in how over engineered they are in the U.S. And beyond the engineering, the regulatory environment forces commercial plants to shutdown if they even begin to approach conditions that get near to causing a problem. It really takes seeing what they need to do, and the conditions they need to meet to operate to really appreciate the situation.
 

shogun32

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We absolutely haven't crippled our supply chain or infrastructure,
the comment was in regards to the entire electrical system and the precursors, not narrowly on the inputs on a nuclear power plant.
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