Possible Covid19 Protection

[Gregs24]

I am predicting covid will get worse for the people that can’t get vaccines or booster. Here people have chosen not to take them but for most of the world people can’t get them. In the US we should always have high availability but for most of the world that will never be the case. What about these people if we put evolutionary pressure towards making this virus more like merricks disease in its response to vaccines?

Do you know anything about Israel’s covid response? They hold just about every record for vaccinating their population along with the research to follow it. When information about this comes out of Israel it’s generally pretty accurate. My guess is Monday when ‘they’ (the government who knows?) meet about booster, it will start to catch traction. They just don’t want to say that because even more people might switch from the wait and see to No camp.

There is no logic to your 'prediction' but never mind.

Israel is frequently cited as the best vaccine roll out but actually only 57% of the population has had both doses which is well below the level needed to stop virus circulation. Other countries are very close now including the UK. What Israel did do is vaccinate their 57% very quickly, so they are the ''longest' vaccinated population. The length of time immunity lasts however is very complex and also individual dependent. Older people tend to have a poorer response to the vaccine in the first place and weaker long term antibody levels, and how do you actually measure 'immunity'. Antibodies can be measured but not T-cell related immunity which are known to play a major part in the COVID immune process. Repeat infection of younger healthy individuals is very rare even now suggesting immunity lasts for a reasonable length of time. The biggest risk comes from a new vaccine escape variant where immunity to current strains would be of little benefit.

Having said all of that the vaccine doesn't rely on a single antigen to provide immunity and the vaccine itself can be changed to deal with changing strains. It is very likely that some people in the world will never get the current vaccine and will jump straight to the next version, after all vaccinating the entire world once is likely to take years.

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[RPDBlueMoon]

I am predicting covid will get worse for the people that can’t get vaccines or booster. Here people have chosen not to take them but for most of the world people can’t get them. In the US we should always have high availability but for most of the world that will never be the case. What about these people if we put evolutionary pressure towards making this virus more like merricks disease in its response to vaccines?

Do you know anything about Israel’s covid response? They hold just about every record for vaccinating their population along with the research to follow it. When information about this comes out of Israel it’s generally pretty accurate. My guess is Monday when ‘they’ (the government who knows?) meet about booster, it will start to catch traction. They just don’t want to say that because even more people might switch from the wait and see to No camp.

That isn't a very optimistic outlook. What is it about the COIVD virus that makes you think that? What about the influenza vaccines? It's a very similar situation and there haven't been any influenza virus 'super bugs' since the introduction of the annual influenza vaccine. The outbreak in 2009 didn't originate from a human variant of the H1N1, it originated in pigs and made its way to humans. No human vaccine has given rise to a virulent pathogen. You could say that a similar evolutionary pressure is being applied to the other vaccines for other RNA viruses, like measles, rabies, and polio.

The marek's disease isn't an exact 1:1 case with the COIVD situation. The majority of humans aren't densely packed together and have poor sanitation like chicken farms. The poor sanitary conditions of the food industry/livestock are a breeding ground for pathogens, this is why the widespread use of anti-biotics have given rise to microbial resistance to antibiotics. So the evolutionary pressure isn't the same, there also are 3 times the amount of chickens, so the pressure is far greater and faster due to that extreme concentration on top of the environment. Natural immunity is leaky as well, so you can't completely remove evolution out of the equation.

No, I haven't been following the response from Israel. I heard that New Zealand had beat the situation but I haven't closely followed any country, just passively read the headlines. So I guess we will see if its the cause of the immune system being weak of old people or if its really not.

 

[Gregs24]

Pfizer submitted a Pharmacovigilance Plan (PVP) to monitor safety concerns that could be associated with Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine. The Sponsor identified vaccine-associated enhanced disease including vaccine-associated enhanced respiratory disease as an important potential risk.

https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download
Pg. 44, 7. Pharmacovigilance Activities

It is a real risk and people that understand evolutionary pressure will always admit there could be adverse outcomes to our little experiment. The fact that the most vaccinated counties also happen to be the most unhealthy and oldest compared to the third world doesn’t play well into this either.

We are pressuring this virus in ways we don’t understand. You country can’t even figure out when to lift lockdowns/restrictions but we should trust the science? But yeah this will work out perfectly.

But there is a big difference between potential and actual risk. What they actually say is:

Available data do not indicate a risk of vaccine-enhanced disease, and conversely suggest effectiveness against severe disease within the available follow-up period. However, risk of vaccine-enhanced disease over time, potentially associated with waning immunity, remains unknown and needs to be evaluated further in ongoing clinical trials and in observational studies that could be conducted following authorization and/or licensure

This is not to say it should be ignored, but also the current evidence is that it is not a problem, the reasons being explained here and how steps can be taken to avoid the problem.

Antibody-dependent enhancement and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and therapies | Nature Microbiology

Incidentally your suggestion that non third world countries have the unhealthiest and oldest populations doesn't really ring true - you can't really have both. However an older population because of a healthier lifestyle in younger life or better health systems will result in more people vulnerable to COVID

 

[Gregs24]

No human vaccine has given rise to a virulent pathogen.



I heard that New Zealand had beat the situation

The former is not quite true - the best example being Dengue Fever. Not really development of a superbug brought about by vaccination per se, more a case of a secondary disadvantage because of the way the vaccine worked.

Model of antibody-dependent enhancement of dengue infection | Learn Science at Scitable (nature.com)

New Zealand has used it's isolated geography to mitigate COVID but is now wasting that benefit with a poor vaccine roll out, in a similar way to Australia. Controlling COVID there in such a draconian way will have had negative impacts elsewhere. If they had got on and vaccinated then you could easily argue it was worth it, but the current situation means that the isolation will have to continue for some time yet.

 

[Gregs24]

We are pressuring this virus in ways we don’t understand. You country can’t even figure out when to lift lockdowns/restrictions but we should trust the science? But yeah this will work out perfectly.

The UK is certainly a pioneer, and only time will tell if it was the right thing to do. certainly cases are soaring but hospital admissions are still pretty low and deaths very much lower compared to previous times when case rates were this high. The vaccine breaking the link between cases and hospitalisation to a large extent.

The UK is pretty clear what it is doing and when, whether it is right or not, nobody knows yet.

 

[Gregs24]

Optimism is a state of emotion. I am not trying to be optimistic or pessimistic about this virus, I just have extremely large levels of respect for a 32 KB string of code that has been so successful. My prediction stems from our overestimation of our ability and information. We have probably learned 100x more about viruses in the last year than all of our previous research combined. What are the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns? We will find out in the future.

Marek’s disease is significantly different from covid. I use it more of a model on evolutionary pressure and less of an actual 1:1 comparison. It is a lot more fit for vaccine induced intensification though. Covid is missing many of those qualities.

Israel is just has a good system setup for producing high quality information. Almost everyone was vaccinated with one vaccine and they have some of the worlds top scientist and doctors. I trust the information that comes out of there. They are the canary in many different ways.



You just said it was illogical when it’s more like an actual possibility that need further study. The fact that no one will talk about it is also troubling. There needs to be open discussion that what we are doing could have dire consequences and if that is seen developing, a plan to mitigate the risk be that stopping vaccinations or other solutions. The problem is people saying it’s impossible.

First world counties have the highest rates of obesity and also diabetics in the general population. They also live the longest due to medial intervention. As GDP rises, it takes lifespan and BMI with it.

I try to take more of an analytical look at covid. I am young and have been vaccinated so my risk is extremely low. Covid doesn’t have any effect on my life anymore. Predictions and conversations about them are just a fun brain exercise right or wrong.

But you were predicting covid will get worse for those that cannot get a vaccine. There is no real logic to that. Antibody Dependent Enhancement which I think you were referring to requires the person to have been vaccinated for the negative effect to happen.

There is no evidence to date that it is happening and is part of the trial work as per the link you gave. The benefits to vaccination are huge, the possible theoretical downsides that are not happening as of yet, but are a theoretical risk are not enough to stop this. Considering the number of people vaccinated globally and the other miniscule number of undesirable secondary effects that have been detected then I believe your concerns need to put into perspective. What we are doing is mitigating dire consequences.

Third world countries have deaths and diseases that would not occur in first world countries. In fact if some of those diseases did occur in first world countries much more would probably be done about them.

Covid doesn’t have any effect on my life anymore - Oh it does. Maybe not on your day to day activities but the socio-political effects of COVID will be felt by us all for years to come. All assuming your vaccine immunity remains strong and there isn't a vaccine escape strain as well.

Regarding the comment about our knowledge of viruses - Virologists have known plenty for years, it is their job! I'm sure the general public have learned a lot more, but coronaviruses are not new and the speed of the vaccine creation shows they know what they need to know.

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