2021 Mustang Mach 1 Orders to be cancelled because commodity shortages

[DaveR.PP2]

Fact is the automotive industry has over the years become increasingly dependent on technology components and lighter weight materials that have derived benefits to the consumer. Today, post pandemic, there's a vast majority of industries requiring components that manufacturers worldwide have little to no control over.

When you look at sourcing many of the items needed a significant and I mean material, significant are from Asian locations. A very high percentage of global workers work for less than $6.00 an hour.

Mustangs are noted to have highest American made assemblies.

The major threat to American production will continue to be foreign, outsourced materials and semiconductors and supply chain issues will likely continue for not months but years.

Pay attention to the People's Republic of China and their leadership mandates and economic plans for their own benefits. Pay attention to the systemic problems and the event risks around the corner regarding threats to democracies like Hong Kong and the very compelling and looming threat to Taiwan.

And the auto industry is going electric now and for the rest of time.

Ford and the entire auto industry since inception plan and tool for the new year where the calendar is the driver as the industry remains highly competitive and increasingly reliant on global partners which decentralize which as a result enhances the problems of building and delivering quality vehicles to an ever demanding market.

Cars are emotional. For us they are. For others on the globe they're a luxury or a replacement of some other means of transportation like a scooter or a mule drawn wagon.

This disruption and the anguish it creates is real and those who can successfully meet the demands of a discerning buyer will sustain their markets but it won't be simple and it will take like this global pandemic a much longer period for recovery than most people think.

I am sorry as we all are for those now unlikely to get what they wanted after waiting all these months. Regroup and rethink your plans...Ford is telling you this. Beyond any company's control this global problem. But this too shall pass and hopefully you'll get what you want... there's a price in time and money and we all have to do the calculus almost daily today in making decisions. This too shall pass in time.

The world is ever-changing and just pay attention to the big picture. It will help to explain and answer where we are today.

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[Bikeman315]

JIT is great but ONLY when nothing goes wrong. Then it collapses like Jenga. You either buffer your inputs or you suffer economic dislocation. World trade has been going so swimmingly (we're way overdue for a big-ass war) for so long that we've forgotten that things do go bad out of the blue. It was usual and customary to have 3 months food stockpiled and this was before refrigeration. Most people now probably don't have more than a week's worth. As a civilization we are not prepared for eventualities. Yes the supply chain snarl was self-inflicted - there was no cause to overreact but that's a topic for another thread.

You are not taking into account a very critical part of JIT, forecasting. JIT by itself works just fine. Forecasting is where the issues arise. Before JIT/forecasting our factories built what they wanted. So long as sales were good worldwide it wasn't an issue. But if sales were to drop, say in Europe, their production could wind up in our hands. Now we were over inventoried and had to pay for the expense of holding that inventory.

With JIT/forecasting the factories only built/shipped what we forecasted (assuming there were no supply shortages). If we under or over forecasted we could be in a world of hurt. We learned in a very short time that accurate forecasting was the key in getting what we needed, when we needed.

By the way forecasting was 90-180 days out. No one in January 2020 saw what was coming in April/May. Once they did the forecasts were cut. Now we are seeing where that landed us.

 

[Bikeman315]

Cars are emotional. For us they are. For others on the globe they're a luxury or a replacement of some other means of transportation like a scooter or a mule drawn wagon.

Well that's a bit of an overstatement. Tell this to all of the Mustang owners worldwide. Also all of the Porsche, AMG, "M", & "R" owners around the world. I agree that many Americans do have a unique love affair with their cars. Put here just like anywhere else in the world most folks just use their cars as a means of transportation.

 

[danpass]

It appears that I'm on the cancellation list.

Ford doesn't specify WHY there was a cancellation, so that perhaps I could modify my order in a way to keep it alive.

Practically have to sue Ford's ass to get a solid answer and quite frankly .......

any lawyers reading this? re: seller default, class action, etc ....

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[IPOGT]

You are not taking into account a very critical part of JIT, forecasting. JIT by itself works just fine. Forecasting is where the issues arise. Before JIT/forecasting our factories built what they wanted. So long as sales were good worldwide it wasn't an issue. But if sales were to drop, say in Europe, their production could wind up in our hands. Now we were over inventoried and had to pay for the expense of holding that inventory.

With JIT/forecasting the factories only built/shipped what we forecasted (assuming there were no supply shortages). If we under or over forecasted we could be in a world of hurt. We learned in a very short time that accurate forecasting was the key in getting what we needed, when we needed.

By the way forecasting was 90-180 days out. No one in January 2020 saw what was coming in April/May. Once they did the forecasts were cut. Now we are seeing where that landed us.

Forecasting is bull@hit. No one can accurately predict how much product will sell and to whom and in what quantity. At best, it's an educated guess.

 

[KBR Stang]

Danpass.....sorry to hear that.

 

[Zelek]

Mine got cancelled too. Sad day.

 

[KBR Stang]

Mine got cancelled too. Sad day.

Ugh.....

 

[Bikeman315]

It appears that I'm on the cancellation list.

Ford doesn't specify WHY there was a cancellation, so that perhaps I could modify my order in a way to keep it alive. Practically have to sue Ford's ass to get a solid answer and quite frankly .......
any lawyers reading this? re: seller default, class action, etc ....

Dan we all understand and feel your pain but you are not suing anyone. Supply issues are beyond the control of the manufacturer. There would be no course of action in this case. Also whatever the issue is it is specific to the M1 and GT500. At this point in the production plan there are no changes possible.

I know you wrote this out of frustration but do yourself a favor. Yell, scream, whatever you have to do to vent. Then get over it and move on. As much as we all love our cars, and I know this is heartbreaking, there will be another and you will be happy.

 

[danpass]

I wouldn't be so upset if Ford had a problem with ALL their vehicles.

But they're not. They're cranking out F150s and the dumbass E car .....

I've heard of delays but not of cancellations in that realm

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[Bikeman315]

Forecasting is bull@hit. No one can accurately predict how much product will sell and to whom and in what quantity. At best, it's a guess.

I did forecasting for over 20 years. I can tell you that while it might be a guess it is a highly educated one and if done correctly can be very accurate. Regardless of whether or not it is BS, every large manufacturer that uses JIT does it.

 

[Bikeman315]

I wouldn't be so upset if Ford had a problem with ALL their vehicles.

But they're not. They're cranking out F150s and the dumbass E car .....

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Because the part/s that are not being supplied are for use in Mustangs, not trucks or EV's. And, by the way, who is to say some of the vehicles are not being effected? Ford is not doing tis just to screw Mustang owners. I've been there, on both sides of this issue and believe me it sucks from Ford's side as well.

 

[danpass]

****!

I was only a mechanical engineer at an auto OEM, not a supply/production guy but they can't have been this dumb.

Tesla didn't auto-vomit and stop their chip orders at the drop of the pandemic hat .....

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[ChitownStang]

I'm in the business of HD IP surveillance cameras. We use a couple different manufacturers.
Our high-end Canadian company didn't forecast chip shortage and has major delays.
Our middle Korean company has no shortages because they saw it coming and prepared.
Maybe Ford failed to see this coming

 

[Bikeman315]

Maybe Ford failed to see this coming

No one saw this at the end of 2019, beginning of 2020. First forecast for spring 2020 were entered in Dec/Jan timeframe. By the time everyone understood what was happening and forecasts were either being reduced and/or cancelled the die was set. Chip manufacturers took the now available production to other companies that wanted it. Ford, and many others were in a loss, loss proposition.

In the case of the M1 & GT500 the likelihood is this is not a chip issue as the majority of electronics are shared across the platform. Honestly as someone else mentioned we do not even know if the commodities in question are not in production or were produced and hung up i the supply chain somewhere. Remember, at some point production facilities have to be changed. ford has to move form 2021 to 2022 production. If these parts are on a ship somewhere they will be used on 2022 cars.

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