2015+ Mustang Pricing and Model Years Predictions

thePill

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This could very well be the largest MSRP increase the Mustang has ever received Gen to Gen. Past generations usually increased almost $2000 and according to some non-published rumors and some published, this generation is a big step for the Mustang. We could possibly see a $4000-$5000 dollar increase. Now, could Ford only increase the MSRP this gen initially at about $2500 (still bringing it in cheaper than the 5th Gen Camaro)? At $33,000, a 2015 Mustang would be very attractive especially if it a step in the "sport" direction. Ford could increase the MSRP gradually over the next 7-10 years and the customer would gradually warm up to the increase. Still, starting at $35,000 doesn't sound real bad although, it will have an effect on every trim level.

First and foremost, I want to predict Ford trying to getting 10 years out of this chassis. It worked beautifully for the S197 and was a big money maker. Ford engineered the S197 to withstand a decade of sales, was viable enough to rekindle the class and remained very competitive in performance, motorsport and even sales. After the bailouts late 2008, the Mustang has been on an upward trend in sales... That's amazingly clever product flexibility. I assure you, even greater flexibility will be engineered into the S550. If we do see a 10 year S550, I expect the first refresh will be around 2018. This will even give Ford a sweet opportunity to offer the 2017 GT500 in original S550 sheet metal then spike interest again with an fresh 2018 as well as the GT500KR package (Your SVT/Drag Package)... Keep the product poppin'. The 2015-'16 GT350 will bring plenty of attention for the time being... Which brings me back to the MSRP.

2015 5.0 GT
Base MSRP: $32,998
429HP/401TQ

2015 5.0 GT-R
Base MSRP: $39,998
429HP/401TQ
4 Wheel Brembo Pack and Ford Racing's GT350 suspension bits

2015 GT350 (Boss replacement)
Base MSRP: $47,998
500-525HP (Not sure about the 600HP NA engine)

2015 GT350R (Laguna Seca replacement)
Base MSRP: $53,998
500-525HP

These MSRP's will gradually increase over the next 10 years and could possibly exceed the S197's $5000 increase from '05-'14. This means a big bad $59,998 base GT500 is on the way BUT... you gotta figure in the slight increases from '15 to '17 which should be around $1200 dollars. I don't even want to get into what the GT500 is going to consist of... I imagine the same impact the 2013 had times three. Should Ford increase the MSRP to $35,000 right off the bat, maybe they will freeze the MSRP until the next refresh... and that's what I want to talk about next.

The refresh... If it were my product and I needed 10 years out of it, I would have 4 designs on deck. This all depends on the sales of course but a great business plan would definitely call for it. The two things we have to keep in mind is bridging this Gen with the next. The 2024 Mustang will need to display cues that will carry over to the 60th anniversary.

We have the natural 3 year slump every product must endure, I mean every product... The Wii, iPhone, iMac, Camaro. It's natural... Scheduled refresh model years should be a nice 2018 and 2022 using 3 of the 4 designs. Don't forget to set aside your best S550 for the 2022-'24 while still selecting the best design to bridge the generations together. I also think we will see the GT500 released similar to what they did with the Boss. Releasing the first year in classic S550 and then changing over to a new 2018. I want to see a 2017 GT500 followed by a refreshed 2018 GT500 and a 2018 GT500KR. Ford also need to name the Brembo pack GT's by simply using Ford's "R" scheme. The "Mustang GT-R" was trademarked in 2004 and still is today... perfect in my opinion. This also carries over to the GT350 and the GT350R like the original. The GT500 will ditch the "R" and go with the "KR".

So, this is my wishlist not really concerning the product but the asking price. I see an issue with having a Eco4 and V6. If the V6 can start at $22,998 that would be outstanding!!! but highly unlikely... The base V6 cost will ultimately push the V8's higher still. Say maybe start at $23,998 (up from $22,500) and the Eco4 starting at $26,998.

Breakdown... (Using "6G" as the V6's new name :) and "ST" for the Eco4.

2014.5: (Already gone)

2015: Mustang 6G $23,998
Mustang ST $26,998
Mustang GT $32,998
Mustang GT350 $47,998

2016: Price increased an average $600 dollar across the lineup
Mustang GT-R and GT350R introduced at $39,998 and $53,998 (plus $600)

2017: Price increase +$600 average
GT500 introduced at $59,998 (plus $1200 annual base increase)

2018: Refresh! Another $600 increase
GT500KR introduced
Braking and Handling component upgrades trickle down
Engine output increased (DI maybe)

2019: +$600
Mustang ST replaces the Mustang 6G as base model
Mustang TT6 is released as part of the 55th Anniversary and the anniversary of the 1979 Turbo Cobra and first Turbo Mustang. (Turbo wars are on)

2020: +$600
Interior Refresh

2021: +$600 (at this point, a base GT cost about $36,000)
Special Edition Time!!!
Another output increase (DI for sure if not already)

2022: Refresh and +$600
Complete lineup
ST4
TT6
GT/GT-R
GT350/GT350R
GT500/GT500KR
Special Edition

2023: +$600
Getting stale, more options ect, ect...

2024: The last hurrah and another $600 increase. At this point, a base GT cost almost $39,000... Now, you can understand why Ford is up-scaling the Mustang... By the end of the models life, it will be a $40,000 base V8.

The picture below screams $40,000 sports coupe.






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HGFireHazard

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2015 5.0 GT
Base MSRP: $32,998
429HP/401TQ

2015 5.0 GT-R
Base MSRP: $39,998
429HP/401TQ
4 Wheel Brembo Pack and Ford Racing's GT350 suspension bits
I think you need to keep the V8 base price as low as possible. All things considered, what you have listed isn't a terrible price, but this also depends on what improvements they have made. We still know so little that it's hard to formulate an opinion.

However, I will say that for a $7K price increase for the R spec you have listed there needs to be a heck of a lot more than just a brake pack and a few suspension bits. Current GT Premium base only increases the cost $4,100 so unless they really add some serious options in standard I think that number is a bit off base.

These MSRP's will gradually increase over the next 10 years and could possibly exceed the S197's $5000 increase from '05-'14. This means a big bad $59,998 base GT500 is on the way BUT... you gotta figure in the slight increases from '15 to '17 which should be around $1200 dollars. I don't even want to get into what the GT500 is going to consist of... I imagine the same impact the 2013 had times three.
So what are you thinking here, that the rumored GT350 is going to be almost like a current GT500 and the new GT500 is going to be some serious Corvette rival? I'm not even sure I'm convinced we're going to see two sub-models above the GT, but it could be a surprising move to try and really class up the car and make it a super halo car.

I also think we will see the GT500 released similar to what they did with the Boss. Releasing the first year in classic S550 and then changing over to a new 2018. I want to see a 2017 GT500 followed by a refreshed 2018 GT500 and a 2018 GT500KR. Ford also need to name the Brembo pack GT's by simply using Ford's "R" scheme. The "Mustang GT-R" was trademarked in 2004 and still is today... perfect in my opinion. This also carries over to the GT350 and the GT350R like the original. The GT500 will ditch the "R" and go with the "KR".
I like and I dislike the GT-R branding idea. I like it as a natural evolution to what is used now, but there is also a pretty infamous GT-R that to me would overshadow the whole thing.

Then, in the scenario that we end up with a GT350 and GT500, why the wait to release them? The GT350 I can kind of understand, but there is a difference in who the consumer is between a GT Mustang and a GT500. I don't see those sales cannibalizing one another.

Also too I hope we see a higher power jump than 8-10. They can at least do 20.

Furthermore, Pill, when are your timeline thoughts for serious motor changes or advancements? First refresh? The new 5.0 is a well loved and seemingly very well engineered piece, but I have to believe CAFE and competition are going to force advancements; even DI, much faster than 2018.

Overall well thought out post. I really hope some 'verifiable rumors' start spilling out so we can start nailing some of these ideas down with more than just pure conjecture.
 
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thePill

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I think you need to keep the V8 base price as low as possible. All things considered, what you have listed isn't a terrible price, but this also depends on what improvements they have made. We still know so little that it's hard to formulate an opinion.
The $32,998 is only a $2000 increase over the 2014 but is still under the current 5th Gen's MSRP. I doubt we will get it any lower than $32k.

However, I will say that for a $7K price increase for the R spec you have listed there needs to be a heck of a lot more than just a brake pack and a few suspension bits. Current GT Premium base only increases the cost $4,100 so unless they really add some serious options in standard I think that number is a bit off base.
The Boss 302 and the Boss 302 Laguna Seca was initially $7000 difference and they went quick. Also keep in mind, a Brembo optioned Premium GT with 3.73's and Recaro's went for $38,000 if I remember right. That's about $5,000 up from a Premium and you really didn't get that much more.


So what are you thinking here, that the rumored GT350 is going to be almost like a current GT500 and the new GT500 is going to be some serious Corvette rival? I'm not even sure I'm convinced we're going to see two sub-models above the GT, but it could be a surprising move to try and really class up the car and make it a super halo car.
There is usually two models above the GT. In the past, a Special Edition and the Cobra or GT500 was above the GT. I believe the GT350's target is to match or beat a Stingray. It's also very possible the GT350 will class with the Stingray in motorsports. The GT500 will try to ascend to be the magazine HALO car that Ford needs. It's too expensive to build a Ford GT for such a low demand...


I like and I dislike the GT-R branding idea. I like it as a natural evolution to what is used now, but there is also a pretty infamous GT-R that to me would overshadow the whole thing.
The 1st Gen Mustang GT's had a GT-R long before the Skyline changed. GTR is a class in which vehicles like these are found... Ford also used the name in 2005 on the Mustang GT-R.

Then, in the scenario that we end up with a GT350 and GT500, why the wait to release them? The GT350 I can kind of understand, but there is a difference in who the consumer is between a GT Mustang and a GT500. I don't see those sales cannibalizing one another.
The Mustang may be laid out on a 10 year plan. You have 5.24 million fans and they need yearly updates to keep the product hot and rolling. Models, refreshes and power increases are tools to use to do that.

Also too I hope we see a higher power jump than 8-10. They can at least do 20.

Furthermore, Pill, when are your timeline thoughts for serious motor changes or advancements? First refresh? The new 5.0 is a well loved and seemingly very well engineered piece, but I have to believe CAFE and competition are going to force advancements; even DI, much faster than 2018.

Overall well thought out post. I really hope some 'verifiable rumors' start spilling out so we can start nailing some of these ideas down with more than just pure conjecture.
Ford rarely ever does both a new body with a new version of an engine. The body updates usually offset the power train updates anywhere from 1 to 5 years... 475hp will help increase sales when the natural sales decrease is due. The originals will be well equipped and upgraded by the time the DI comes out and it will take some time to tune them. Maybe a 2017 DI Coyote so you have the '15-'16 Coyote's and a '17 DI Coyote before the '18 refresh to push sales again. This is product management. Looking at it now, it appears we could cut the S550 Gen short by 2 years since we can't really go any further. However, we are going to drastically affect the 60th Anniversary redesign in 2025. What is more likely to happen is some of the "ST4" and "TT6" performance models and offerings will be pushed back later in the model life to try and ween some more V8 Mustang loyal to the Ecoboost generation. In a few years and after some test and tuning, the Ecoboost engines will earn some respect and acceptance.

However, looking at a proposed scheduled, this generation looks pretty packed if they continue as they did with the S197. Also, the first initial BIG changes will be for the 2017 model year when the new Camaro is released. I expect a counter-strike or some defense poured into the 2018's (hence the KR) either because they lost in '17 or they won and need to defend against some probably true rumors.

The product planning I laid out is almost identical to the one Ford did with the S197. Intentional or not, it worked. There are areas I would have improved on. I would have refreshed the Mustang in 2009 and 2012. The '09 was the worst selling Mustang in history, the new '10-ish 2009 may have helped. More sales of the '13-'14 if the 2012 was in that category. Keep the 2011 the first year of the 5.0 so you can have two unique 5.0 models. Boss would have been '11-'12 and the '13 would continue as GT500 time as planned. That's 4-3-3 instead of the 5-3-2 which could have been a bit hectic on developers with the 3 new engines and 3 new transmissions.

Big thanks for reading and the awesome reply Hazard.
 

HGFireHazard

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The $32,998 is only a $2000 increase over the 2014 but is still under the current 5th Gen's MSRP. I doubt we will get it any lower than $32k.
I pretty much agree. I think it's possible we could see a $1,500 increase, but $2K wouldn't shock me either.

The Boss 302 and the Boss 302 Laguna Seca was initially $7000 difference and they went quick. Also keep in mind, a Brembo optioned Premium GT with 3.73's and Recaro's went for $38,000 if I remember right. That's about $5,000 up from a Premium and you really didn't get that much more.
This is true. I went to the builder site and your numbers are pretty much accurate. Although I think one can argue the Track Pack is totally worth the extra over just the Brembo pack. I think the Recaro's are pricey. Then again I'm not any type of serious road course racer. The Boss also offered some pretty premium upgrades, including engine changes.

There is usually two models above the GT. In the past, a Special Edition and the Cobra or GT500 was above the GT. I believe the GT350's target is to match or beat a Stingray. It's also very possible the GT350 will class with the Stingray in motorsports. The GT500 will try to ascend to be the magazine HALO car that Ford needs. It's too expensive to build a Ford GT for such a low demand...
My impression of the GT350 was that it's supposed to be a new addition to the Mustang lineup and not an SE, what do you think? That may be why it's more difficult for me to understand the potential goals for the car and wherein it lies in price and function over the GT. If it's going to be a SE I think it makes it even more confusing.

If in fact it doesn't end up being a SE, where does that leave us with the first SE to come down the line? With two vehicles already being a class above the GT, where do you slot it? Maybe the next one doesn't end up being a special V8 but a high powered Ecoboost motor? Again, too many unknowns for me to figure this all out in my head.

The 1st Gen Mustang GT's had a GT-R long before the Skyline changed. GTR is a class in which vehicles like these are found... Ford also used the name in 2005 on the Mustang GT-R.
True. Not sure that's enough to overshadow the current monster of a GT-R. We'll see what Ford says down the road.

The Mustang may be laid out on a 10 year plan. You have 5.24 million fans and they need yearly updates to keep the product hot and rolling. Models, refreshes and power increases are tools to use to do that.
I think, if the economy picks up, it will be less than 10 years. I think the current gen from 05-14 could have used more innovation, especially on the sheet metal. If you look at the variance on the changes over the years they totally changed how the car looked (93 to 94, 98-99, 04 to 05), whereas the refreshes we saw were much more of an evolution. If we're going to see that happen on this next run it will have to be a shorter overall cycle.

Ford rarely ever does both a new body with a new version of an engine. The body updates usually offset the power train updates anywhere from 1 to 5 years... 475hp will help increase sales when the natural sales decrease is due. The originals will be well equipped and upgraded by the time the DI comes out and it will take some time to tune them. Maybe a 2017 DI Coyote so you have the '15-'16 Coyote's and a '17 DI Coyote before the '18 refresh to push sales again. This is product management. Looking at it now, it appears we could cut the S550 Gen short by 2 years since we can't really go any further. However, we are going to drastically affect the 60th Anniversary redesign in 2025. What is more likely to happen is some of the "ST4" and "TT6" performance models and offerings will be pushed back later in the model life to try and ween some more V8 Mustang loyal to the Ecoboost generation. In a few years and after some test and tuning, the Ecoboost engines will earn some respect and acceptance.
I think it's more likely we'll see the 60th anniversary not coincide with a major body change and instead just offer a more modest paint, stripe, interior edition. 75th will be the next major focus I believe. I think more of these variables on engine changes and such will depend on the competitors. That being said, we got the new body of the 94 and the swap from pushrod 5.0 to 4.6 in 96, so it has happened. Yet this Coyote is something special, so I don't think we'll be seeing it go away anytime soon.

However, looking at a proposed scheduled, this generation looks pretty packed if they continue as they did with the S197. Also, the first initial BIG changes will be for the 2017 model year when the new Camaro is released. I expect a counter-strike or some defense poured into the 2018's (hence the KR) either because they lost in '17 or they won and need to defend against some probably true rumors.

The product planning I laid out is almost identical to the one Ford did with the S197. Intentional or not, it worked. There are areas I would have improved on. I would have refreshed the Mustang in 2009 and 2012. The '09 was the worst selling Mustang in history, the new '10-ish 2009 may have helped. More sales of the '13-'14 if the 2012 was in that category. Keep the 2011 the first year of the 5.0 so you can have two unique 5.0 models. Boss would have been '11-'12 and the '13 would continue as GT500 time as planned. That's 4-3-3 instead of the 5-3-2 which could have been a bit hectic on developers with the 3 new engines and 3 new transmissions.
Pretty much agree.

Big thanks for reading and the awesome reply Hazard.
You bet man. I'll take any bit of well thought out and interesting conversation and conjecture. I'm dying over here waiting for this thing to come out so I can buy it and Ford just isn't pacifying my thirst for information on what's to come!
 

Jarstang

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Nice post, Pill. Deserved new thread.

Agree with most of it, but I think the S550 platform will not have quite the longevity as the S197. Remember, 2005-08 had few competitors and as you pointed out, there was a recession that would have put all future plans on hold as manufacturers focused on survival. It's a different landscape now. The Camaro and Challenger both have aggressive new platforms forthcoming and Challenger sales are beginning to pose a noticeable threat to Ford and GM. But perhaps the biggest reason why it can't is that in 10 years time, Ford will be dealing not with the 6th-gen Alpha-based Camaro, but with a new 7th generation one.
 
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thePill

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Nice post, Pill. Deserved new thread.

Agree with most of it, but I think the S550 platform will not have quite the longevity as the S197. Remember, 2005-08 had few competitors and as you pointed out, there was a recession that would have put all future plans on hold as manufacturers focused on survival. It's a different landscape now. The Camaro and Challenger both have aggressive new platforms forthcoming and Challenger sales are beginning to pose a noticeable threat to Ford and GM. But perhaps the biggest reason why it can't is that in 10 years time, Ford will be dealing not with the 6th-gen Alpha-based Camaro, but with a new 7th generation one.
I am retracting my statement about the 55th anniversary Twin Turbo 3.5 (TT6). I believe the ST4 will take the 6G's spot as base offering around '17-'18. The 2019 Ecoboost 3.5 (single turbo ST6) will be offered with close to 400hp and "try" to remain under $30,000. Hopefully, they give the ST6 a throw back two-tone Turbo Cobra job to commemorate the 40 years Turbo Mustang's. We can skip the fancy Cobra hood decal...

To sum it up... I don't think the Mustang ST6 will ever really need a twin turbo it staying below $30k is the goal. $29,998 for 395hp/405tq and 21/32mpg and very, very tunable? Here teenagers!!!! Get your cheap, stylish and tunable kick ass here!!!



Or use the Pace car's scheme...

 

stangray11

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2015: Mustang 6G $23,998
Mustang ST $26,998
Mustang GT $32,998
Mustang GT350 $47,998

2016: Price increased an average $600 dollar across the lineup
Mustang GT-R and GT350R introduced at $39,998 and $53,998 (plus $600)

2017: Price increase +$600 average
GT500 introduced at $59,998 (plus $1200 annual base increase)

2018: Refresh! Another $600 increase
GT500KR introduced
Braking and Handling component upgrades trickle down
Engine output increased (DI maybe)

2019: +$600
Mustang ST replaces the Mustang 6G as base model
Mustang TT6 is released as part of the 55th Anniversary and the anniversary of the 1979 Turbo Cobra and first Turbo Mustang. (Turbo wars are on)

2020: +$600
Interior Refresh

2021: +$600 (at this point, a base GT cost about $36,000)
Special Edition Time!!!
Another output increase (DI for sure if not already)
Good post but I don't agree with the flat $600 increase every year. I think it should roughly correspond to any new design changes and features and how new or old the technology and platform are.

Each mid-platform refresh should bring with it a higher price increase than regular MY's. In the twilight years of the platform, when Ford's focus will be completely on eeking out every bit of profit margin from older technology, parts and components, the price increases should start to become minimal to keep up sales versus new competition.

Also don't want to see a $4-5K MSRP bump. That would be suicide and the sticker shock alone would drive many to wait to see what the Camaro has to offer in 2016, IMO. I think it makes more sense to have no more than $2k increase to get as many buyers into the 2015 as possible and to lock in more "new" Mustang loyalists, and have bigger increases between each MY.
 

MustangDizzle

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Ya, but Brembos are standard on the Camaro. The 2015 better have Brembos standard.

And it damn well better have more than 429 horsepower.


PS you have way too much time on your hands typing this crap out.
 

Vickstang

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Ya, but Brembos are standard on the Camaro. The 2015 better have Brembos standard.
If the prototypes are any indication of what we'll get, Brembos aren't going to be standard. There's already prototypes spotted without big brakes.
 

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Hell of a post Pill! :thumbsup: I think I agree with the point of longevity, the S197 did live through a bit of an economic crisis.

I like the idea of the turbo model. Considering I won't be able to afford one of these new S550s till around '17-18 model year it might be something to look out for. That, or I might just bite the bullet and finances willing, get the GT350. The idea of a N/A 500-550ish car is mouthwatering to say the least.

TH
 

GTsquid

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I dunno 4 design refreshes is nuts, I see 3 at most with the last one being more reactive (last resort if sales plummet). There's no need for it and as the S197 showed, with each refresh, as the car gets that far into the platform cycle it starts having diminishing boost to sales. Planning this many refreshes means it is going to be very slight changes each time, as pointed out above, it would be more like the '10 & '13 and less like the ones seen in the previous generations. By refresh #4 they may be firing blanks. Rather they save the resources and ideas for the big ones.

I'd prefer to see 2 major refreshes with significant body changes and new powertrain/transmission/feature updates.
If we were to see let's say an 8 year (2015-2022) S550 platform life....

2018 refresh to capitalize on 3rd year slump in Camaro sales with new body work, 9-10 speed tranny, updated engines (direct injection).
Then 2021 refresh.... new body changes, LED's standard, new powertrains to take us into the first 2 years of the next generation.

So 3-3-2 is my preference. Would line up well for me.... buy the 15 then maybe look again in 2021-22. Enough to get possibly 2 sales out of each person and more flexible to give those that didn't open up to the S550 to wait for the next one.
 

K.Lysius

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Why's eeryone predicting such a long life cycle and so many refreshes predicted? I think the s197 gen is an anomaly and can't be used to predict the next model. Seems like most manufacturers these days are going with a 6-7 year model life cycle with a single refresh.
 

MustangDizzle

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Why's eeryone predicting such a long life cycle and so many refreshes predicted? I think the s197 gen is an anomaly and can't be used to predict the next model. Seems like most manufacturers these days are going with a 6-7 year model life cycle with a single refresh.
The C6 likewise had an overly extended life. The C7 should have debuted as a 2012 model.


This platform should only exist for 7-8 years with a redesign halfway through. With the pace of technology exponentially increasing, having a platform run 10 years will find itself very far behind the last couple years.


If I was a Ford Executive, I would push for the S550 to last only 5, with a completely redesigned, more advanced, lighter, stronger chassis to debut as a 2020 MY. They need to stay ahead of the competition.
 

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