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WOW the $5 gas is really here to stay it looks like......😳

Will the barrel of oil continue to stay high?

  • I ride a Bicycle and don't care

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Bikeman315

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Most people don't have a clue how much "oil" plays a part in their every day life. I personally know people who bought EVs - and that's perfectly fine their money (besides subsidies which I'm against regardless who its for) their choice. But then they brag about not having to buy gas. Then they start harping about 'saving the planet'. One day I'd had enough, so I asked two co-workers (they are essentially Tweedle dee and Tweedle dum - they do everything together) where they lived. When they told me, I let them know that the electricity charging their EVs to "save the planet" was actually coming from a coal-fired power plant.

They searched on their phones for 5 minutes and realized I was right. The look on their faces made me feel bad - almost.

Most people don't even understand WHY the world uses gasoline. They don't understand that it was, and is a BY PRODUCT of refining crude oil for other uses. Hell, it used to be dumped in holding ponds on rig sites 100 years ago.

But from 1920 to now, right at 100 years, we've got mass-produced cars right now that have 200HP and get 42+ mpg that are affordable and have 100K powertrain warranties. Where as a Model T had 20HP and got 15mpg if that.

Current gen EVs have A LOT of issues that most people either don't know about or simply don't want to talk about.

- Electric Power infrastructure. Look at CA - the leader in "Green" electricity production (which in and of itself is total crap - they IMPORT the electricity needed to mostly keep up with current demand) they were literally issuing "flex alerts" urging customers to "voluntarily" restrict use of certain electric appliances, adjust thermostat settings and urging EV owners to charge their vehicles BEFORE a "Flex Alert" was issued. If HALF of all the ICE powered vehicles in CA were replaced by EV there is NO way CA's power grid could even attempt to keep up - even with greatly increasing the already high percentage of electricity they import. They imported 70% of their electricity in 2019. You think that number is going down?

- Storage / Battery tech - while tech is rapidly expanding / improving there are outside factors that are already influencing these advancements. One of the organizations that is involved with expanding EV battery tech and admitted that with the large auto manufacturers rushing to jump on the EV bandwagon (which they applauded) they also admitted that supplies of needed materials to build batteries could in no way keep up with this demand. You have major auto manufacturers spending hundreds of millions on start ups and small companies working on advanced EV tech and while a lot of these advancements are GREAT - what good does it to when there is no realistic way for widescale production / implentation?

- There are certain earth minerals that you have to have to build a modern EV battery. The vast majority of these materials are imported. Ironically, the U.S. HAS resources of most of these minerals in its own borders, but industry knows there is no way that the EPA and other government regulatory agencies (With current 'carbon emission' policies and regulatory policies) would never allow them to mine for these minerals. But we're perfectly fine importing them from other countries who could give a shit less about carbon emissions.

- Wind and Solar power - they are really good options in certain parts of the country. But they aren't magic. How much OIL is needed to make ONE wind turbine? What about the oil that's used INSIDE the turbine? Even better is solar. Who makes the majority of solar panels in the world? Solar panels are made using silica....sand. So you need A LOT of energy to make silicone ingots from sand and even more to convert that to the silicone needed for panel construction. The plants that make the majority of these - in that unnamed country (hint: rhymes with China) they are powered by what? (Hint: rhymes with coal).

I'm not saying the technology won't grow. I'm not saying it won't get better and better.

I am saying that the current political rhetoric - that is frighteningly becoming energy 'policy' - is akin to jumping out of aircraft without an "old" parachute and hoping the 'new' and 'improved' parachute tech is ready to go and use - before you smash into the ground at terminal velocity.

And I wont' even talk about nuclear power. If nuclear power production in the U.S. doesn't start becoming okay to talk about - if the government agencies don't start making realistic changes to policy to help nuclear power production expansion - and current energy 'policy' stays the same, there's only two choices.....either it gets REALLY bad, especially for those people who can't afford the price of electricity, gasoline, natural gas and heating oil increasing (like it has and will continue if no drastic changes are made) OR oil / gas / coal production RAPIDLY increases in the U.S.
This all very informative and interesting but for all intent and purposes meaningless. Our path have been paved and there are no off ramps. I recognize that EV’s are far from perfect but that is the direction the worldwide industry is going. With trillions invested it’s not changing. We are still going to have our ICE vehicles for many years to come. Might as well just enjoy them while we can.
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IceAge

IceAge

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This all very informative and interesting but for all intent and purposes meaningless. Our path have been paved and there are no off ramps. I recognize that EV’s are far from perfect but that is the direction the worldwide industry is going. With trillions invested it’s not changing. We are still going to have our ICE vehicles for many years to come. Might as well just enjoy them while we can.
Yes and I read a great article last year about the churn of new car sales to used cars. The average life of ownership is now 11 plus years. The ratio of replaced cars to actual current cars is staggering meaning the amount of actual EV vehicles will take a very long time. In essence we are a good 20 plus years from the EV market possibly being even 25% of the world wide vehicles. It’s all smoke and mirrors to drive an agenda that so many do not actually understand. WhIch in the end I tell my daughter when she’s my age they will then understand EV’s did not save the world. But at the same time I think something bigger and better will come from the advancement of technology to make more sense. And thanks everyone for keeping it not too political because on other forums I belong to the thread is already closed. We can all play the politics game but in the end I like to hear ones personal views, knowledge and understanding instead of just saying because this person is in office this is the reason and only reason.
 

ctandc72

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This all very informative and interesting but for all intent and purposes meaningless. Our path have been paved and there are no off ramps. I recognize that EV’s are far from perfect but that is the direction the worldwide industry is going. With trillions invested it’s not changing. We are still going to have our ICE vehicles for many years to come. Might as well just enjoy them while we can.
Seriously? That's your response? "That's just the way it is, mine as well get used to it."

That's fine for you, for me - for most people with the extra income / time to buy a Mustang, mod it, drive it and peruse auto forums etc.

What about the millions (that's short term only - think BILLIONS over the next decade) of people who won't be able to afford to heat their homes if current energy policy continues unabated?

You think this is just about EVs vs ICE cars? What happens when the people who need cheap transportation (ICE) can't afford a car, much less the gas to fuel it to get back and forth to work? What's the solution? Move to a more concentrated, urban center where they can use public transportation? Cool. Have you seen the COL increases in medium-large urban centers in the last decade? Unemployment rates?

I won't even get into food shortages - they ARE going to happen. That's not a guess. CHEAP, PLENTIFUL ENERGY is and has been the primary driver of the modern economy for longer than any of us here have been alive. That alone has done more to lift people out of poverty and keep people from starving than any other single thing.

This isn't just about EVs. EVs CANNOT replace ICE cars / trucks on a mass scale without TRILLIONS of investment and upgrade in existing power grids and distribution networks. But EVs are NOT the main problem with this entire "Green" pipe dream. It's EVERYDAY life for the vast majority of the people on the PLANET.

The EU is ALREADY back tracking (albeit fairly quietly) on "net zero" carbon emissions goals / standards. Russia's war with Ukraine finally woke them up to the fact that you can't worry about your own country's "green energy" production, while relying on other countries to provide you with cheap, plentiful energy sources so your country's citizens can afford to HEAT their homes and EAT.

It's a house of cards built on unicorn farts and rainbows. And when (not if) it collapses - if current energy policy doesn't change - it's going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people.
 

Bikeman315

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Seriously? That's your response? "That's just the way it is, mine as well get used to it."
Yup, that’s all I have because I’m a realist. It’s not that I don’t agree with you but you’re naive to think that any of this is going to change.

It's a house of cards built on unicorn farts and rainbows. And when (not if) it collapses - if current energy policy doesn't change - it's going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people.
In the United States energy policy can change every four to eight years. We’ve been going down the current path since the 70‘s. Nothing is changing. As far as the worldwide automotive industry is concerned do you really think they are going to scrap the trillions already spent on alternatives to gasoline. Like I said naive thinking. Not wrong, mind you just not realistic.
 

ctandc72

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Yup, that’s all I have because I’m a realist. It’s not that I don’t agree with you but you’re naive to think that any of this is going to change.

In the United States energy policy can change every four to eight years. We’ve been going down the current path since the 70‘s. Nothing is changing. As far as the worldwide automotive industry is concerned do you really think they are going to scrap the trillions already spent on alternatives to gasoline. Like I said naive thinking. Not wrong, mind you just not realistic.
You underestimate the importance of being able to get reelected. Mid terms will be a slaughter house once prices spike even further and we see the Fed panic trying to head off the recession they know is coming.

Oil / Gas policy is this country will change...whether the policymakers want it to or not.
 

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You underestimate the importance of being able to get reelected. Mid terms will be a slaughter house once prices spike even further and we see the Fed panic trying to head off the recession they know is coming.

Oil / Gas policy is this country will change...whether the policymakers want it to or not.
thank you for your last four posts…it’s what many of us are thinking, but don’t have the time and/or the patience to type it all out 😎👍🏼

lets just hope the current economic policy’s don’t push us into an inflation/recession combo 🤨
 
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Stage_3

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lets just hope the current economic policy’s don’t push us into an inflation/recession combo 🤨
Bingo. I have a feeling that is coming our way, unfortunately.

Anyone else hear possibly 200 bucks a barrel by the end of 2022??
 

Bikeman315

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Anyone else hear possibly 200 bucks a barrel by the end of 2022??
Yup, right along with a 7.3 liter S650 Mustang with 1000HP.

Kidding, of course. For those that remember 2008 was the gold standard for oil prices, $145.31. $200, I certainly hope not.
 

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thank you for your last four posts…it’s what many of us are thinking, but don’t have the time and/or the patience to type it all out 😎👍🏼

lets just hope the current economic policy’s don’t push us into an inflation/recession combo 🤨
Inflation? Nothing that a free gas card and some beer money can't fix. Problem solved.

You're welcome.
 

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Inthehighdesert

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Wow. I can’t say I’m surprised. Talk about sticking your head in the sand. It’s easy to understand why so much of this country is in the state it is. So many have absolutely zero connection with reality. Carry on.

This all very informative and interesting but for all intent and purposes meaningless. Our path have been paved and there are no off ramps. I recognize that EV’s are far from perfect but that is the direction the worldwide industry is going. With trillions invested it’s not changing. We are still going to have our ICE vehicles for many years to come. Might as well just enjoy them while we can.
Yup, that’s all I have because I’m a realist. It’s not that I don’t agree with you but you’re naive to think that any of this is going to change.

In the United States energy policy can change every four to eight years. We’ve been going down the current path since the 70‘s. Nothing is changing. As far as the worldwide automotive industry is concerned do you really think they are going to scrap the trillions already spent on alternatives to gasoline. Like I said naive thinking. Not wrong, mind you just not realistic.
 

ctandc72

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Wow. I can’t say I’m surprised. Talk about sticking your head in the sand. It’s easy to understand why so much of this country is in the state it is. So many have absolutely zero connection with reality. Carry on.
The bigger problem is the amount of people who have no real clue how integrated oil is into our DAILY LIVES, even if we stopped using gasoline tomorrow (which ironically is a by product of refining oil for the thousands of other essential items we use everyday) oil usage would not stop and it wouldn't decrease.

Main problem is too many people think oil=gasoline.

Same disconnect that caused the U.S. to increased its use of coal for electricity production in 2021, because of the spike in Natural Gas prices caused by this admin's actions (LPG export facilities on hold, permit and lease "pausing etc). That increase in coal use? First time in almost decade.

Most people don't realize how many power plants can run off coal, natural gas or even fuel oil. People see the price of electricity increase on their monthly bill and don't realize that increase happened for the supplier (the electric company) months earlier.

Same thing with politicians harping on "record profits" for oil companies etc and not knowing (or worse - knowing the difference but not pointing it out because: optics) between net and gross profits.

"Oil companies raked in RECORD PROFITS in 2021." That plays well politically. It's simple.

They can make the oil companies the big bad boogey man while not having to say "Short-sighted, idiotic energy policies that have caused shortages, disrupted supply and demand - causing traded market prices to go up, combined with greatly reduced medium to long-term capital investment in the domestic oil and gas arena (because of said messaging and policies / actions) - add in the current Russia / Ukraine business + the fact that oil companies lost BILLIONS Of dollars in '20 when lockdowns were enforced....."

Essentially most people in this country will say "TLDR".

By the time most people start to pay attention, it won't be gas prices they are worried about. It'll be food prices and availability, monthly electric / gas / fuel bills (Winter in the MidWest / NE is shaping up to be a nightmare from an energy cost standpoint).
 
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IceAge

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The bigger problem is the amount of people who have no real clue how integrated oil is into our DAILY LIVES, even if we stopped using gasoline tomorrow (which ironically is a by product of refining oil for the thousands of other essential items we use everyday) oil usage would not stop and it wouldn't decrease.

Main problem is too many people think oil=gasoline.

Same disconnect that caused the U.S. to increased its use of coal for electricity production in 2021, because of the spike in Natural Gas prices caused by this admin's actions (LPG export facilities on hold, permit and lease "pausing etc). That increase in coal use? First time in almost decade.

Most people don't realize how many power plants can run off coal, natural gas or even fuel oil. People see the price of electricity increase on their monthly bill and don't realize that increase happened for the supplier (the electric company) months earlier.

Same thing with politicians harping on "record profits" for oil companies etc and not knowing (or worse - knowing the difference but not pointing it out because: optics) between net and gross profits.

"Oil companies raked in RECORD PROFITS in 2021." That plays well politically. It's simple.

They can make the oil companies the big bad boogey man while not having to say "Short-sighted, idiotic energy policies that have caused shortages, disrupted supply and demand - causing traded market prices to go up, combined with greatly reduced medium to long-term capital investment in the domestic oil and gas arena (because of said messaging and policies / actions) - add in the current Russia / Ukraine business + the fact that oil companies lost BILLIONS Of dollars in '20 when lockdowns were enforced....."

Essentially most people in this country will say "TLDR".

By the time most people start to pay attention, it won't be gas prices they are worried about. It'll be food prices and availability, monthly electric / gas / fuel bills (Winter in the MidWest / NE is shaping up to be a nightmare from an energy cost standpoint).
Great info and yes just insane how the Media twists everything for a Smoke and Mirrors agenda. And now states are talking about giving out gas credit cards with a $400 value per vehicle limit to 2 per household. The States are also rolling back the state Gas tax not the Federal tax to offset the pain. But at the same time this sends message fuel is not going down anytime soon which thats not too comforting.
 

Bikeman315

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The bigger problem is the amount of people who have no real clue how integrated oil is into our DAILY LIVES, even if we stopped using gasoline tomorrow (which ironically is a by product of refining oil for the thousands of other essential items we use everyday) oil usage would not stop and it wouldn't decrease.

Main problem is too many people think oil=gasoline.

Same disconnect that caused the U.S. to increased its use of coal for electricity production in 2021, because of the spike in Natural Gas prices caused by this admin's actions (LPG export facilities on hold, permit and lease "pausing etc). That increase in coal use? First time in almost decade.

Most people don't realize how many power plants can run off coal, natural gas or even fuel oil. People see the price of electricity increase on their monthly bill and don't realize that increase happened for the supplier (the electric company) months earlier.

Same thing with politicians harping on "record profits" for oil companies etc and not knowing (or worse - knowing the difference but not pointing it out because: optics) between net and gross profits.

"Oil companies raked in RECORD PROFITS in 2021." That plays well politically. It's simple.

They can make the oil companies the big bad boogey man while not having to say "Short-sighted, idiotic energy policies that have caused shortages, disrupted supply and demand - causing traded market prices to go up, combined with greatly reduced medium to long-term capital investment in the domestic oil and gas arena (because of said messaging and policies / actions) - add in the current Russia / Ukraine business + the fact that oil companies lost BILLIONS Of dollars in '20 when lockdowns were enforced....."

Essentially most people in this country will say "TLDR".

By the time most people start to pay attention, it won't be gas prices they are worried about. It'll be food prices and availability, monthly electric / gas / fuel bills (Winter in the MidWest / NE is shaping up to be a nightmare from an energy cost standpoint).
I enjoy your posts and understand what you are saying. Having had family in the oil business I totally get the the whole “oil is more than gas” situation. But we are here discussing $5.00 a gallon gasoline. Your insight goes far beyond the scope of this thread. And honestly it hurts my head because I know we peons are just along for the ride.
 
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IceAge

IceAge

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I enjoy your posts and understand what you are saying. Having had family in the oil business I totally get the the whole “oil is more than gas” situation. But we are here discussing $5.00 a gallon gasoline. Your insight goes far beyond the scope of this thread. And honestly it hurts my head because I know we peons are just along for the ride.
Well said Diplomatically😂
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