Worried the used car market bubble wont pop anytime soon

[Firsttexan]

because for 35 large I bought an 'icon' of 5.0l american V8 warts and all with manual trans. Unfortunately there isn't much in the way of an alternative. A GT350/500 costs 2.5-3x what I paid and the quality is still no different than the $28k ecoboost. If Honda/Toyota/Kia can produce their "ecoboost" equivalent car with perfect (or at least good, and consistent) paint and panel finish then Ford can do it as well on the lowly Eco all the way to the GT500.

The USA taught the Japanese how to run manufacturing after WW2. We instead decided to just half-ass it.

What a shame you have to buy such crap. You deserve better. It's the Japs and Germans fault. But they make some straight body lines.

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[Smunczen]

MEH, Vehicles and the way they are sold is nothing new, everyone's parents and grand parents other than life long innercity folk that never needed a personal vehicle,as they always used public transport. Has had a family member that has bought vehicles. It isn't a secret.
And YES we do ,do it at the grocery store, appliances, furniture. At least most do, as they shop sales, not paying full retail .
I'm odd, and buy the outlet furniture, the last years demo model, or a customer order that they changed their mind. Appliances, scrach and dent. and at least when I have bought both, if the tag on that lazyboy said 299.95, I'd ask if they would do 259.95 and guess what, "hold on a minute, I'll be right back," tic toc tic toc, "sir, yes we can". Great. I'll take it.
NEW fridge same thing, scratch and dent, dent on side that it never be seen, tag 1299.99, I paid 999.99 non scratch and dent unit 2599.99
It never hurts to ask . Food stores, I shop sales on things I know we will use, soup on sale and coupon, stocking up.
Yup, I'm a cheap SOB.

I also look for the deals like that.

 

[Bikeman315]

I also look for the deals like that.

One of the key tenets of doing business is that everything is negotiable. But you'll never know unless you ask.

 

[Crowd Hunter]

I've been saying I would never buy another new car since the day I bought my first new car in 1998. Since then, I have bought 11 more new cars. I will never learn.

(And about 25 used cars)

 

[shogun32]

China just sanctioned three major auto chip traders who usually make 5-10% profit for artificially restricting suppy and inflating prices to increase profits 20-30 times.

Right but do the traders serve domestic or offshore needs? Ford put most of their eggs in one basket and it cost them dearly.

 

[IPOGT]

Right but do the traders serve domestic or offshore needs? Ford put most of their eggs in one basket and it cost them dearly.

It’s a very difficult situation. Once a circuit is designed there are certain types of chips (ex: DA/AD converters) that are limited to a few manufacturers. Each chip in order to perform its function requires certain pin configuration and all surrounding components are generally designed around these major chips. As such as in my example.
No chip, your design Is worthless, no production and back to engineering for redesign of product for different available (for now) chip.
NOT good. There now.

 

[shogun32]

Custom ASICS are one thing. Not uncommon for chips with same functionality to be all packaged the same or choice of 3 layouts: surface mount, bga or less common thru hole. Doesn't help to have to make special runs of circuit boards to accommodate brand X vs Y of otherwise the same thing.

I hope what happens after this is domestic get smart and bring their supply lines back from Asia and maybe too the electronics modules gat standardized not just across Ford but the big 3. Differentiation would boil down to screen and programming.

Asics are cheaper per unit but I doubt very much the functions couldn't have been reimplemented on any of the common cell phone ARM chips.

 

[shogun32]

Someone cancels an order using 20% of production capacity for 12 mths ....how to they get treated when come back?

Told to wait 6-9 months till extra capacity can be built out. Till then suck it. What you gave up was long since sold to someone else and they are not about to spoil that fresh arrangement.

 

[I Bleed Ford Blue]

This whole mess is going to come crashing down at some point. Where I work we make steel coils and 75% of our output goes to automotive. About 3 months ago the company started rehabbing old decrepit buildings for coil storage. We keep making steel like there is no tomorrow but it does not ship, it just sits in storage. The steel we are making is already sold, but the auto plants are refusing delivery. At some point the contracts will run out and then what? We are pumping out coils at pre pandemic levels, but the finished product is just trickling out the door.

 

[I Bleed Ford Blue]

The chip shortage is beginning to affect other industries thru the trickle down effect. Even tho the chips don't get used in our process. It may be 3-5 years before everything is back to pre pandemic levels. If we go down, as long as we maintain a hot idle on the furnaces, we can be back up and running within a week, and can have a lead time as little as two weeks on certain grades of steel. But then it has to be shipped out and the made into cars.

 

[ice445]

The chip shortage is beginning to affect other industries thru the trickle down effect. Even tho the chips don't get used in our process. It may be 3-5 years before everything is back to pre pandemic levels. If we go down, as long as we maintain a hot idle on the furnaces, we can be back up and running within a week, and can have a lead time as little as two weeks on certain grades of steel. But then it has to be shipped out and the made into cars.

Shipping is also partially collapsing. Huge backups at American ports, containers not getting back to their needed locations, etc. Last I saw, shipping times have literally doubled. Asia to the US is up to 90 days. You won't be able to get shit this holiday season.

 

[shogun32]

shipping times have literally doubled. Asia to the US is up to 90 days

ships at anchor waiting for Port of Long Beach to unload is all time high, charter rates are >10x normal. Freight forward rates are also obscene. There is severe China -> USA shipping stress. Isn't international trade grand?

 

[ice445]

ships at anchor waiting for Port of Long Beach to unload is all time high, charter rates are >10x normal. Freight forward rates are also obscene. There is severe China -> USA shipping stress. Isn't international trade grand?

It works great until it doesn't. This is the first time we've gotten to the "doesn't" stage. It's certainly going to be pretty uncomfortable before it gets better.

 

[Bit_the_Bullitt]

Shipping is also partially collapsing. Huge backups at American ports, containers not getting back to their needed locations, etc. Last I saw, shipping times have literally doubled. Asia to the US is up to 90 days. You won't be able to get shit this holiday season.

Yup, our machines come from Europe and it's a mess trying to get our customers predictable and mainly reliable delivery date.

 

[5.Oh Crush]

A bubble factor I thought about recently is that people buying new with covid dollars may let their vehicle go as some point. This happened after 2007 employee pricing and 2008 home market collapse.

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