Worried the used car market bubble wont pop anytime soon

[Bit_the_Bullitt]

"I work in electronic industry, chip shortage is going to get worse. Many components we order now have lead time of more than 1 year".

Ditto. NOT good folks. Not good at all.

Don't the chip-building machines have a big backlog because everyone wants them now? And maybe those needs chips too.

CHIPCEPTION

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[shogun32]

Don't the chip-building machines have a big backlog because everyone wants them now? And maybe those needs chips too.

CHIPCEPTION

yes, absolutely. The wire-bonders take about 6 weeks to build. And are chock full of control circuitry and computers. There is a lead time on the XY tables, servo motors, low-friction air-tables and on and on.

The testing machines take weeks to build and they too are chock full of control computers.

Then there is the SiO2 fab and deposition machines which take a healthy amount of time to make. A single wafer takes 6-8 weeks to make. The chip lithography machines also cost 9 figures and have long lead times.

You can't just say "go" and bring chip-making capacity online.

 

[Bit_the_Bullitt]

yes, absolutely. The wire-bonders take about 6 weeks to build. And are chock full of control circuitry and computers. There is a lead time on the XY tables, servo motors, low-friction air-tables and on and on.

The testing machines take weeks to build and they too are chock full of control computers.

Then there is the SiO2 fab and deposition machines which take a healthy amount of time to make. A single wafer takes 6-8 weeks to make. The chip lithography machines also cost 9 figures and have long lead times.

You can't just say "go" and bring chip-making capacity online.

I'm aware of that, I work in a manufacturing facility as well, we make/sell/modify CNC grinding machines and our lead times are pretty horrid as well.

Thanks for the input, I've learned something!

 

[Porsche Dude]

I'm aware of that, I work in a manufacturing facility as well, we make/sell/modify CNC grinding machines and our lead times are pretty horrid as well.

Thanks for the input, I've learned something!

You might be happy to know that Ford is bringing their micro chip manufacturing in-house. They are supposed to be up and running in about two years.

 

[Firsttexan]

The high prices are bringing out a lot of the "collector low mileage cars".I bought pristine 2013 GT500 6k miles ALL options from carvana 3 weeks ago.

This market may last even longer if the manufacturers start going with a Tesla type business model. Carvana has the car dealers adopting their online and delivery model as quickly as possible. With mixed results. The online purchase of my 2019 GT from the Local Ford dealer made that very obvious. They have a ways to go before they beat Carvanas service and execution. On the other hand it's under warranty and I need a relationship with a good dealer.

The business is changing. Combined with inflation, chip shortages (imagine how many chips electric cars need), changing business models. Cars will just keep getting more expensive IMO. Don't wait for something that may never come.

 

[IPOGT]

yes, absolutely. The wire-bonders take about 6 weeks to build. And are chock full of control circuitry and computers. There is a lead time on the XY tables, servo motors, low-friction air-tables and on and on.

The testing machines take weeks to build and they too are chock full of control computers.

Then there is the SiO2 fab and deposition machines which take a healthy amount of time to make. A single wafer takes 6-8 weeks to make. The chip lithography machines also cost 9 figures and have long lead times.

You can't just say "go" and bring chip-making capacity online.

A lot of people just say to me, “they’ll make more no problem”. Don’t get it.

 

[IPOGT]

We’ll be recycling pc boards like Gilligan's island soon if this keeps up.

 

[circatee]

The high prices are bringing out a lot of the "collector low mileage cars".I bought pristine 2013 GT500 6k miles ALL options from carvana 3 weeks ago.

This market may last even longer if the manufacturers start going with a Tesla type business model. Carvana has the car dealers adopting their online and delivery model as quickly as possible. With mixed results. The online purchase of my 2019 GT from the Local Ford dealer made that very obvious. They have a ways to go before they beat Carvanas service and execution. On the other hand it's under warranty and I need a relationship with a good dealer.

The business is changing. Combined with inflation, chip shortages (imagine how many chips electric cars need), changing business models. Cars will just keep getting more expensive IMO. Don't wait for something that may never come.

This is flipping spot on! Even Ford have mentioned that they are 'moving' to the Tesla business model. We all have to adapt with the changing times. Odd some of the effects and things that have come, because of the Covid pandemic...

 

[Bit_the_Bullitt]

You might be happy to know that Ford is bringing their micro chip manufacturing in-house. They are supposed to be up and running in about two years.

That ought to go REAL well. Any news on when the panels on my S550 (at the time in its 4th year) will be aligned?

 

[Firsttexan]

That ought to go REAL well. Any news on when the panels on my S550 (at the time in its 4th year) will be aligned?

If you want that kind of perfection? You are going to have to move into the $100k club IMO.

 

[shogun32]

If you want that kind of perfection? You are going to have to move into the $100k club IMO.

oddly enough Kia and Honda/Toyota sedans, hell even VW GTI/Passat only cost ~35,000 and come with perfect paint and alignment.

 

[Firsttexan]

oddly enough Kia and Honda/Toyota sedans, hell even VW GTI/Passat only cost ~35,000 and come with perfect paint and alignment.

So what's your point? If that's what matters to you? Go buy. You are not going to get it with a Ford. Doesn't keep Ford from selling millions of Mustangs. Enough of the owners like their cars to even join forums to talk all about them. Want to know what a crappy broke down car is? Go have a look at the CL500 Mercedes Forum. It's got perfect body gaps though. I am done with Euro-cars. I work on them almost daily and I have owned most brands. The new EuroEVs may change my mind in a few yrs.

 

[shogun32]

So what's your point? If that's what matters to you? Go buy. You are not going to get it with a Ford.

the point is "perfection" doesn't cost money that the consumer would notice. It costs effort, and kaizen till you get it RIGHT, and giving a damn in general. American-run car companies (note I didn't say American workers - because those inbred hicks down south produce quality just fine, as long as a Japanese/Korean (german?) boot is lodged in their ass) don't care about quality.

 

[Firsttexan]

the point is "perfection" doesn't cost money, it costs effort, and kaizen till you get it RIGHT, and giving a damn in general. American-run companies (note I didn't say American workers - because those inbred hicks down south produce quality just fine, as long as a Japanese/Korean (german?) boot is lodged in their ass) don't care about quality.

Then why are you buying their stuff? Are you stuck in WWII? Said, the 60 yr old hick down South. You seem to have liked US cars enough to buy 3 of them.

 

[shogun32]

Then why are you buying their stuff? Are you stuck in WWII? Said, the 60 yr old hick down South.

because for 35 large I bought an 'icon' of 5.0l american V8 warts and all with manual trans. Unfortunately there isn't much in the way of an alternative. A GT350/500 costs 2.5-3x what I paid and the quality is still no different than the $28k ecoboost. If Honda/Toyota/Kia can produce their "ecoboost" equivalent car with perfect (or at least good, and consistent) paint and panel finish then Ford can do it as well on the lowly Eco all the way to the GT500.

The USA taught the Japanese how to run manufacturing after WW2. Detroit decided instead to just half-ass it.

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