Worried the used car market bubble wont pop anytime soon

[cerbomark]

You mean GT500 or a GT350r?

I don't think the Mach will sell with that markup. I did a quick search online as I was writing my earlier post and there are dealers advertising M1's with minimal ADM ($0 - $2k).

I too get bored waiting for my car. Occasionally I reach out to folks with GT350's and see if I can't get them to drop their price down a bit, with the rationalization that if I can get them to give me pandemic pricing on my trade in, maybe it will all work. But then I think about it and realize that a 2019 GT350 with low miles in non-pandemic pricing should probably be about the same I'm paying for my Mach's and I kinda sour on the whole thing. Best I've seen so far on a 350 I would actually want is like $65k, which is $11k over what I am paying for the Mach.

EDIT: it was a GT 500 CF wheels
It was $105 MSRP. plus market adjustment.
I also was looking at used gt 350 but as you said for about the same price I have a new, warranted car. Understand it s a bit less but...
My Mach 1 will be $52K.

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[Kermut]

EDIT: it was a GT 500 CF wheels
It was $105 MSRP. plus market adjustment.
I also was looking at used gt 350 but as you said for about the same price I have a new, warranted car. Understand it s a bit less but...
My Mach 1 will be $52K.

Ah yea the 500's are hella expensive, and hard to get a hold of to boot. The ~$72k MSRP is very misleading.

I mean to me, $13k+ less for the M1 v a 2019/2020 GT350 is a big deal. At least at my financial means, I know I would have a very bad taste in my mouth if I paid $65k for a used car only to have it drop to $40k in 1-2 years with normal use (10k miles/year). That is like new Porsche levels of depreciation.

 

[ICU812]

There is absolutely a shortage of used vehicles- just because there are a ton for sale doesn't mean that number is reduced from what it normally would be. I also strongly suspect many of the private seller listings that are astronomically high are people using the car but thinking to themselves, "Well gee if I can sell it for this, I'll make do with my bicycle/motorcycle/other household car and buy another later".

To the OP, if you can fit it in your budget, I would look at ordering a new vehicle, because right now it's the best way to not get completely screwed over in the current market. The well known dealers on this forum are offering ~4% below invoice / ~8% below MSRP on most Mustangs. That way you get a brand new car and exactly what you want, with a full factory warranty, without having to worry about over valuing a used car. Because right now nobody has a clue as to what the market is going to do over the next 6 months to 2 years. A $40k used Mustang today may very well be a $30k car in a year, which is frankly an insane devaluation on a already used vehicle.

If I had to guess, I would think prices will gradually drop on used cars over the next year and a half, but I don't think we will see pre-pandemic value on used cars (accounting for inflation obviously) return to normal for at least 2+ years. Long story short, if you buy something new and hold on to it for 4-5 years I think you can expect a normal valuation at the end of your ownership, whereas for doing the same with a used car, you are gonna take a serious beating.

Clearly you don't understand what a shortage really looks like.
A real shortage would be empty lots and nothing available to buy. Example was a month into the covid and most canned veg's were not available anywhere, totally empty shelves .
Just because you can't get a used vehicle in the color you want, doesn't make this a shortage.
limited supply is not a shortage, and that "thought" of a limited supply is from the used car business having more lots than customers for any given area, because a buyer having to drive a little ways is taboo. so there is 15 used car businesses in a one mile radius. It be like having 15 SEARS or WALLY worlds in a one mile radius. use car lots have saturated most business zoned areas.
When you can right now, leave your house and without driving 20 miles can look at hundreds to thousands of used vehicles for sale , there isn't a shortage.
Just because the entitled American shopper is used to getting the model vehicle they want, in the color and trim they want, and have 12 of those in their local area to pick from, and now only have 2 of that model and trim and it might not be in the color they want doesn't = a shortage.
When you see a waiting list for a replacement used vehicle because there is nothing to be had on lots and private sales, THEN there is a shortage.
THis isn't one.

 

[Kermut]

Clearly you don't understand what a shortage really looks like.
A real shortage would be empty lots and nothing available to buy. Example was a month into the covid and most canned veg's were not available anywhere, totally empty shelves .
Just because you can't get a used vehicle in the color you want, doesn't make this a shortage.
limited supply is not a shortage, and that "thought" of a limited supply is from the used car business having more lots than customers for any given area, because a buyer having to drive a little ways is taboo. so there is 15 used car businesses in a one mile radius. It be like having 15 SEARS or WALLY worlds in a one mile radius. use car lots have saturated most business zoned areas.
When you can right now, leave your house and without driving 20 miles can look at hundreds to thousands of used vehicles for sale , there isn't a shortage.
Just because the entitled American shopper is used to getting the model vehicle they want, in the color and trim they want, and have 12 of those in their local area to pick from, and now only have 2 of that model and trim and it might not be in the color they want doesn't = a shortage.
When you see a waiting list for a replacement used vehicle because there is nothing to be had on lots and private sales, THEN there is a shortage.
THis isn't one.

 

[ICU812]

They think because their used car is worth 1-2K more, its ok to buy at MSRP.

There are more than a few, that buy vehicles without haggling and pay sticker, so to these folks, the extra 1-2k for thier old car is a win.
I have a life long friend that works at a new vehicle dealer that has 30+ dealerships. and the number of folks that buy at sticker price is crazy.

 

[shogun32]

A real shortage would be empty lots and nothing available to buy.

see McHenry (md) Ford, 3, count'em 3 cars on the lot. The GM dealer across the street had 50 cars, but none of them were GM - all used and mostly Japanese/Korean models.

 

[shogun32]

and the number of folks that buy at sticker price is crazy.

in NO other aspect of American consumer society do we negotiate on price. We don't do it at the grocery store, we don't do it at the furniture store, we don't do it when buying appliances, only cars/motorcycles. So yeah, compared to your average 'Turk' who negotiates on the price of a cup of tea, we gladly accept the windshield price.

 

[mustanghammer]

Ummmm a quick drive by of any of the lots in the KC Metro area says there is a shortage of new and used cars. Many more empty parking spaces than there are cars in inventory. What inventory is there is made up of an odd mixes used cars in the new car section.

This is true everywhere, unless you drive by a Mitsubishi dealer.....they have lots of cars. Probably get a deal on a Lincoln or Fiat too.....

 

[Zent]

Welcome to Soviet Union shortages....amazing there are no shortages of anything else except for intentional 40% production cust to jack prices up.

People like me will just not buy while all the people on govt covid assistance will buy because they may never be able to afford one again.

It will pass sooner than later. Ordering my vert tomorrow for Feb delivery with option to take advantage of one of three MY incentives on MY 21 converted to MY 22 in Oct.

I'll survive haha first world problems. Need to bring back a few tens of thousands of Toyota trucks US exported to Afghanistan haha.

damn, where can i get some of that covid assistance that lets you buy a new mustang? all ive seen was a couple of thousand dollar checks

 

[ICU812]

see McHenry (md) Ford, 3, count'em 3 cars on the lot. The GM dealer across the street had 50 cars, but none of them were GM - all used and mostly Japanese/Korean models.

ANd if you drove around those dealers, you'd find how many used car lots with how many used cars on them?
I know where I am at, now (home) and where I was at a few weeks ago when on vacation, there was tons of used vehicles on lots. Just because NEW car dealers that for the most part don't sell anything other than new or off lease, or 2 year old traded in units, does not mean there isn't a ton of 1-4 year old vehicle on lots waiting on a new owner.
Between my home and work I pass over ten auto sales lots. most with nothing older than 2017 and they are packed with inventory . I am sure every area is different, but from what I see, other than new car dealers lots, most have stock/inventory at levels they always did.
To me a shortage would be if I totaled my Jeep , and there was nothing avail to buy to replace it. Sure I might not be able to be as spoiled as I was when I bought it, getting the color I wanted in a used one, but ATM there is 60 jeep g/c used 2018 and up avail, and over 50 new in a 25 mile search area.
Mustangs 25 in the same search area used 2016 and up, and 14 new.

 

[ICU812]

in NO other aspect of American consumer society do we negotiate on price. We don't do it at the grocery store, we don't do it at the furniture store, we don't do it when buying appliances, only cars/motorcycles. So yeah, compared to your average 'Turk' who negotiates on the price of a cup of tea, we gladly accept the windshield price.

MEH, Vehicles and the way they are sold is nothing new, everyone's parents and grand parents other than life long innercity folk that never needed a personal vehicle,as they always used public transport. Has had a family member that has bought vehicles. It isn't a secret.
And YES we do ,do it at the grocery store, appliances, furniture. At least most do, as they shop sales, not paying full retail .
I'm odd, and buy the outlet furniture, the last years demo model, or a customer order that they changed their mind. Appliances, scrach and dent. and at least when I have bought both, if the tag on that lazyboy said 299.95, I'd ask if they would do 259.95 and guess what, "hold on a minute, I'll be right back," tic toc tic toc, "sir, yes we can". Great. I'll take it.
NEW fridge same thing, scratch and dent, dent on side that it never be seen, tag 1299.99, I paid 999.99 non scratch and dent unit 2599.99
It never hurts to ask . Food stores, I shop sales on things I know we will use, soup on sale and coupon, stocking up.
Yup, I'm a cheap SOB.

 

[circatee]

Like someone else mentioned, there are a lot of new car tags/license plates on the road, and I am in Georgia.
So, clearly someone has cars available for purchase...

 

[IPOGT]

I totally agree.
After looking for some time, I bought a 2018 EcoBoost two weeks ago. I would rather drive a car that I like now than wait for 1 year and still pay the same price or even more.
I work in electronic industry, chip shortage is going to get worse. Many components we order now have lead time of more than 1 year.

"I work in electronic industry, chip shortage is going to get worse. Many components we order now have lead time of more than 1 year".

Ditto. NOT good folks. Not good at all.

 

[Porsche Dude]

"I work in electronic industry, chip shortage is going to get worse. Many components we order now have lead time of more than 1 year".

Ditto. NOT good folks. Not good at all.

I work for a Canadian Ford dealer and this is going to continue into 2023 at the minimum. We have '0' new trucks on the lot and our used inventory is at 30% of what we would call normal. The used inventory value is much greater in terms of dollars and people are expecting more on their trade in's. As an example, I was offered $4,000 more than I paid for my 2019 PP2, but the new Mach 1 that I spec'd for my self is twice what I paid for my PP2. That is not worth it.

 

[Bit_the_Bullitt]

As long as dopes are willing to pay the ballooned prices, it will stay the course, It could end in a month if people stopped buying vehicles, and used car dealers were sitting on units paying interest on them.
Today's vehicle shopper, shops by monthly payment, the bump in pricing hasn't bumped the monthly payment persay as the dealers just put the buyer into a 72 month instead of a 60 , a 84 month instead of a 72, etc. Once the thrill is gone of buying the new to them vehicle it is too late to worry that they have a note for 6-7 years.

I've never understood the 72, 84 pmt terms. I mean, if that's the route you need to go, then odds are you can't really afford that vehicle. Again, understand means of transportation, but do people not do basic calculations themselves to see how much they'll really pay (out their a*s)?

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