Worried the used car market bubble wont pop anytime soon

[Zent]

had a lot of people tell me to wait a few more months before buying a used car, but with graphics cards people kept saying "its only a few more months" but looks like we're in it for another year. How likely is the used car market bubble going to pop in the next few months? you think its gonna be another year or 2?

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[Strokercrate]

had a lot of people tell me to wait a few more months before buying a used car, but with graphics cards people kept saying "its only a few more months" but looks like we're in it for another year. How likely is the used car market bubble going to pop in the next few months? you think its gonna be another year or 2?

Its likely the used car market will continue in the way its going until one of two things happen. Chip shortage gets cleared up.

Or market completely saturated with cars not moving.

 

[ICU812]

As long as dopes are willing to pay the ballooned prices, it will stay the course, It could end in a month if people stopped buying vehicles, and used car dealers were sitting on units paying interest on them.
Today's vehicle shopper, shops by monthly payment, the bump in pricing hasn't bumped the monthly payment persay as the dealers just put the buyer into a 72 month instead of a 60 , a 84 month instead of a 72, etc. Once the thrill is gone of buying the new to them vehicle it is too late to worry that they have a note for 6-7 years.

 

[ICU812]

Its likely the used car market will continue in the way its going until one of two things happen. Chip shortage gets cleared up.

Or market completely saturated with cars not moving.

The chip issue going away won't change it, if interest rates start going up, causing the finance dept to run out of ways to get the payment into what the customer wants the monthly bill to be. will.
Even once the chip issue is history, most new vehicle dealers won't have the funds to load up their lots for a long time.
less supply on lots than demand= less discounted new cars, that will keep used market up as buyers are forced into used as they are priced out of buying new or leasing.
I am sure the new car brands marketing dept, has been watching this, and I see the my22 having a larger than normal bump in msrp of the 2022's . As vehicle buyers have showed their hand, they will pay a lot more to get a new or new to them vehicle.

 

[ice445]

As long as dopes are willing to pay the ballooned prices, it will stay the course, It could end in a month if people stopped buying vehicles, and used car dealers were sitting on units paying interest on them.
Today's vehicle shopper, shops by monthly payment, the bump in pricing hasn't bumped the monthly payment persay as the dealers just put the buyer into a 72 month instead of a 60 , a 84 month instead of a 72, etc. Once the thrill is gone of buying the new to them vehicle it is too late to worry that they have a note for 6-7 years.

To be fair it's not just "dopes", every time a car gets totaled, that's a new customer forced into this shitty market. With a deficit of between 1-2 million total new cars and trucks, there's an inevitable bottleneck created by people who are forced to buy a new car (crash, junker finally bites the dust, family size gets bigger, etc) with the people who just want one and don't care about the financials. This keeps the prices high, and the only escape for the rest of us is for the supply to return to normal.

 

[ICU812]

To be fair it's not just "dopes", every time a car gets totaled, that's a new customer forced into this shitty market. With a deficit of between 1-2 million total new cars and trucks, there's an inevitable bottleneck created by people who are forced to buy a new car (crash, junker finally bites the dust, family size gets bigger, etc) with the people who just want one and don't care about the financials. This keeps the prices high, and the only escape for the rest of us is for the supply to return to normal.

Sorry, I agree to a point, but they don't need to buy a high demand replacement while the pricing is ballooned, sedans are still in the tank as far as prices, even new.
Put people refuse to settle, and have to have that loaded trim, suv or what have you.
Sure having your ride totaled sucks, and in this market even more so, but at the same time, even though they are paying more for a replacement, they got 2-3k more for their junker going to the junkyard now than they would have so, the example you put forth, is null and void. Those with no coverage and are at fault are screwed. But those that have a 1-6 y/o vehicle totaled have full insurance and are getting more for their wreck than they would have before this mess so it balances out.

 

[ice445]

Sorry, I agree to a point, but they don't need to buy a high demand replacement while the pricing is ballooned, sedans are still in the tank as far as prices, even new.
Put people refuse to settle, and have to have that loaded trim, suv or what have you.
Sure having your ride totaled sucks, and in this market even more so, but at the same time, even though they are paying more for a replacement, they got 2-3k more for their junker going to the junkyard now than they would have so, the example you put forth, is null and void. Those with no coverage and are at fault are screwed. But those that have a 1-6 y/o vehicle totaled have full insurance and are getting more for their wreck than they would have before this mess so it balances out.

You're right, it balances out to the effect of keeping prices inflated, which was my point. I agree that people are definitely too picky about what they buy, but given most people shop in monthly payments instead of on actual price, they'll gladly spend an extra $200 a month to get what they want, prices be damned.

 

[ICU812]

You're right, it balances out to the effect of keeping prices inflated, which was my point. I agree that people are definitely too picky about what they buy, but given most people shop in monthly payments instead of on actual price, they'll gladly spend an extra $200 a month to get what they want, prices be damned.

Most have a budget they have to work within.
ATM dealers have been able to keep the payments within the customer budget by adding months to the note, a 72 month instead of 60 for example. once interest rates go up, and the finance dept, runs out of options and buyers won't settle but can't budget the extra cost, the prices will drop, as most buyers don't need a new to them vehicle they just want one. and can wait either saving more to put down, or waiting out the market. The chip mess even when just a memory won't fix it, as the new car oem's need to make up for lost volume of sales and will be forced to jack up the msrp or limit do away with rebates.
The used market isn't going to drop anytime soon. unless bank loan rates start a march up, if that happens in 2022 things might change but I doubt that happening.

 

[libtrucker]

Don't think of it as a bubble bursting. I think as the supply and demand gets sorted out we will start to see prices rise because of inflation (probably already started).

My prediction, these prices are here to stay. New and used...

 

[TXGTPig]

Have you reached out to any dealers and tried working a deal? I just bought a used '18 GT Premium with 24K miles. Got it for well under their initial asking price. I was patient however. Over the past few months there were Mustangs I was interested in, however wasn't going to pay what they were asking and they didn't want to budge enough. I'm also lucky enough to live in a large city and there are dealers/cars all over the place. Not only that, they paid me very well for my trade. Not sure if I fall in the "dope" category or not, but I'm happy with the out the door price and my monthly payments.

 

[ctang101]

Don't think of it as a bubble bursting. I think as the supply and demand gets sorted out we will start to see prices rise because of inflation (probably already started).

My prediction, these prices are here to stay. New and used...

I totally agree.
After looking for some time, I bought a 2018 EcoBoost two weeks ago. I would rather drive a car that I like now than wait for 1 year and still pay the same price or even more.
I work in electronic industry, chip shortage is going to get worse. Many components we order now have lead time of more than 1 year.

 

[bluebeastsrt]

It’s taken us the better part of two years to get into this mess. With no end in sight. It’ll take at least that long to correct. The decade of 20-30 is going to be a bumpy mother f&@ker!

 

[Labradog]

2008 is gonna look like a picnic. My guess it all starts by October.

 

[dfanucci]

You can't compare the crash of 2008 to what is happening now. 2008 was an entirely different ballgame.

The market will adjust and level out some, but a massive burst like 2008 is not gonna happen, imho.

 

[Smunczen]

So far what I've seem around me are dealers paying more for late model used cars than the online services have. I did notice almost 2k bump in my cars value. I suspect that all the storm damages to vehicles are having a effect. So far what I've read and studied that prices are not going down anytime soon.

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