Will Trump take ANY blame for a tanked market?

[watisthis]

Politics has become a contact sport. What one side was shouting 10-20 years ago, they now say the complete opposite. As I also mentioned in another thread, the same group bashing the administration over the handling of the Covid19 wants the government to run healthcare. I don't get it.

Yeah, and I answered you but you never got back to me.

Sponsored

 

[watisthis]

This is undoubtedly going to get worse before it gets better.

 

[Hack]

Politics has become a contact sport. What one side was shouting 10-20 years ago, they now say the complete opposite. As I also mentioned in another thread, the same group bashing the administration over the handling of the Covid19 wants the government to run healthcare. I don't get it.

If it's not their guys in government then everything is bad, but if it's their guy then the government is the best thing ever.

 

[watisthis]

If it's not their guys in government then everything is bad, but if it's their guy then the government is the best thing ever.

No, it's the fact Trump said the situation was under control, the hype was just a hoax and did nothing at the time to slow the spread early. All I see is right-wing idiots denying everything, it the same exact situation with climate change. First you deny, then you say it costs too much to fix and lastly, cry that you did everything possible. Its like all these idiots comparing this to the flu and the swine flu when they are nothing alike outside of all being influenza strains.

Edit: The key difference between the swine flu and covid19 is that the pandemic potential for swine flu was limited in part because the population was already immune to h1n1 types of flu like the swine flu. There is no immunity against covid19 in the population to anyones knowledge.

Therefore, it has the capacity to infect 60 to 70 % of the population. If left completely unchecked the number of infected people will grow exponentially and within a very short amount of time there will be so many infected that the healthcare system will be overwhelmed. At that point it will no longer be mostly older people or people with pre conditions dying but also younger healthy people that can still be treated for their pneumonia outside of intensive care settings. Covid19 has a higher death rate, spread rate, and need for hospitalization with equipment such as ventilators which are expense and we don't have nearly enough readily available.

Only dumbasses need to see the aftermath before they start to understand the situation.

 

[Hack]

The quote is from the WHO, just as the current WHO quote is. One is biased and the other is not? Both are simply WHO opinion of the situation at that point and time. Both are relevant to the discussion.

As for comparative actions, in most of Europe widespread testing and lock down was in place by 13 March. At this point, nearly all of Europe has similar measures, which are further along than those back home. We are on a good trajectory back home now, but we are certainly not where most are. Ask me how I know.

Just unbiased, objective fact.

It's not about politics. It's about taking the politics out so we can objectively evaluate ourselves and improve.

I'd like to take the politics out. Who are "the most" that are ahead and who are the few that are behind in: shutting travel down, testing, telling people to isolate, % of people passing away, % of people with the disease? I'd love to know info like that.

I don't want it to be about politics, but some people search to always find the negative things to post rather than posting balanced information. I posted one positive thing and you picked out a negative thing. I'd rather see both sides of the issue from you so that I could let go of always trying to balance the negativity.

 

[Caballus]

I'd like to take the politics out. Who are "the most" that are ahead and who are the few that are behind in: shutting travel down, testing, telling people to isolate, % of people passing away, % of people with the disease? I'd love to know info like that.

I don't want it to be about politics, but some people search to always find the negative things to post rather than posting balanced information. I posted one positive thing and you picked out a negative thing. I'd rather see both sides of the issue from you so that I could let go of always trying to balance the negativity.

You interpret anything that is critical as negative or an attack. Quite often, your responses are totally out of context of the discussion, but you manipulate it to insert your political narrative. Someone who has never declared or supported a political party, but for his entire adult life has supported (and often been responsible for implementing) the letter and spirit of U.S. policy, on occasion with blood, bone, and tissue, shares a perspective or even first hand observations, and you even take that as an attack on the President of the United States--absurd. You are the 'balancer of negativity' in your mind only.

Nevertheless, I'll be your Huckleberry. Regarding European responses, I don't have time to write a research paper with an annotated bibliography. If I did I would be footnoted within as a primary source. Here's my experience going entirely off memory. Feel free to fact check:

Bottom line up front: between 13 -15 March, the vast majority of European nations implemented the measures pasted at the end of this posting, prior to which they were testing and incrementally shutting things down.

- In late January, European nations (generalization) were watching COVID but believed cases were isolated anomalies.

- In early Feb, when things started to escalate in Italy, the rest of Europe was watching, but thinking it was an Italian problem. A bit of social tension began to develop at the citizen level (never reflected at the governmental level), as Italians argued that Italian COVID came from Germany--Fasching (Mardi Gras) celebrations. So, the real concentrated start points to the week leading to Ash Wednesday. That is a big vacation period for Europe and may explain the concentration in Italy (never thought about that until now).

- By the last week of Feb, Italy began isolating specific zones in the north. They also restricted public gatherings, closed schools, and limited hours to 0800-1800. After about a week they were considering lifting the restrictions, but got hit with a spike so they clamped down further. Keep in mind that the financial capital (Milan) is in the north. By 12 March, they extended the restrictions to the entire country, which includes the measures listed below. Some point before that, their borders with Switzerland, Austria, France, and Slovenia were closed to all but essential traffic.

- Other European nations (again, broad statement) began responding in the same piecemeal manner that Italy initially did, and were always a step behind Italy (we are talking in hours and days, not weeks). Sporting events and concerts, drive through testing, swimming pools, etc.

- Land borders were the hardest and last thing to close, though by 17 March all were shut down (except for essential traffic). Why is this a big deal? Two reasons: 1) commerce; 2) people. The borders between countries within the Schengen are much more like state lines than national borders. Imagine shutting down all state lines. Additionally, border closings are governed by specific provisions in the treaty, which requires multilateral consultation. Example: on a Saturday in late Feb or early March, I considered shooting across the border to a neighboring country to go hiking and changed my mind that morning because I didn't fully understand COVID. A week or so later that was no longer an option.

- Closing our borders to Europe was a wake-up call for a lot of European countries. On the one hand they were angry that we didn't consult them. On the other hand, it made them look hard at their border control measures. So, we were definitely ahead by a couple days in that specific regard, though if we look at our land borders, we were a step behind. Where the Europeans (broad) were ahead was on testing, communicating, passing financial legislation, and closing down/distancing, per below. The communicating part is hard to over-emphasize. Things are very transparent and the info flows well and constantly. Individual and collective efforts to develop treatment and inoculation have also been impressive.

Direct translation below of measures put in place on 13 March in one country, which are similar across the board. Stricter measures have subsequently been implemented, to include extending most dates. Now if you compare above and below to what we were doing (and saying) back home at the same time, aside from restricting travel from China and Europe, you have the answer:

- XXX is in total lock down as of tomorrow noon and until April 5
- Everyone is to stay at home, except:
- travel to work if telework is not an option
- travel to go get groceries, go to the pharmacy, the doctor, post office, bank or to fuel up the car
- All gatherings are prohibited
- Physical exercise outside is authorized and recommended but only two people, not in a group
- Businesses should telework at a maximum. Those who cannot, need to practice social distancing and if they cannot not provide social distancing, they should close.
- Non essential stores will be closed, except bookstores, groceries, pharmacies, animal care stores.
- Access to groceries will be limited to 1 person per 10 square meter for 30 minutes only
- Hairdressers can only take one customer at the time
- Markets will not be held
- Social distancing will also be key in public transportation
- All non-essential travel abroad is unauthorized until April 5.
(My note--that particular country will review measures on 27 March to determine whether to extend; the decision has pretty much already been made)

If you want more precise analysis, you'll need to do the research yourself. Happy to be interviewed for your project if you want objective, first hand insight.

 

[Hack]

You interpret anything that is critical as negative or an attack. Quite often, your responses are totally out of context of the discussion, but you manipulate it to insert your political narrative. Someone who has never declared or supported a political party, but for his entire adult life has supported (and often been responsible for implementing) the letter and spirit of U.S. policy, on occasion with blood, bone, and tissue, shares a perspective or even first hand observations, and you even take that as an attack on the President of the United States--absurd. You are the 'balancer of negativity' in your mind only.

Nevertheless, I'll be your Huckleberry. Regarding European responses, I don't have time to write a research paper with an annotated bibliography. If I did I would be footnoted within as a primary source. Here's my experience going entirely off memory. Feel free to fact check:

Bottom line up front: between 13 -15 March, the vast majority of European nations implemented the measures pasted at the end of this posting, prior to which they were testing and incrementally shutting things down.

- In late January, European nations (generalization) were watching COVID but believed cases were isolated anomalies.

- In early Feb, when things started to escalate in Italy, the rest of Europe was watching, but thinking it was an Italian problem. A bit of social tension began to develop at the citizen level (never reflected at the governmental level), as Italians argued that Italian COVID came from Germany--Fasching (Mardi Gras) celebrations. So, the real concentrated start points to the week leading to Ash Wednesday. That is a big vacation period for Europe and may explain the concentration in Italy (never thought about that until now).

- By the last week of Feb, Italy began isolating specific zones in the north. They also restricted public gatherings, closed schools, and limited hours to 0800-1800. After about a week they were considering lifting the restrictions, but got hit with a spike so they clamped down further. Keep in mind that the financial capital (Milan) is in the north. By 12 March, they extended the restrictions to the entire country, which includes the measures listed below. Some point before that, their borders with Switzerland, Austria, France, and Slovenia were closed to all but essential traffic.

- Other European nations (again, broad statement) began responding in the same piecemeal manner that Italy initially did, and were always a step behind Italy (we are talking in hours and days, not weeks). Sporting events and concerts, drive through testing, swimming pools, etc.

- Land borders were the hardest and last thing to close, though by 17 March all were shut down (except for essential traffic). Why is this a big deal? Two reasons: 1) commerce; 2) people. The borders between countries within the Schengen are much more like state lines than national borders. Imagine shutting down all state lines. Additionally, border closings are governed by specific provisions in the treaty, which requires multilateral consultation. Example: on a Saturday in late Feb or early March, I considered shooting across the border to a neighboring country to go hiking and changed my mind that morning because I didn't fully understand COVID. A week or so later that was no longer an option.

- Closing our borders to Europe was a wake-up call for a lot of European countries. On the one hand they were angry that we didn't consult them. On the other hand, it made them look hard at their border control measures. So, we were definitely ahead by a couple days in that specific regard, though if we look at our land borders, we were a step behind. Where the Europeans (broad) were ahead was on testing, communicating, passing financial legislation, and closing down/distancing, per below. The communicating part is hard to over-emphasize. Things are very transparent and the info flows well and constantly. Individual and collective efforts to develop treatment and inoculation have also been impressive.

Direct translation below of measures put in place on 13 March in one country, which are similar across the board. Stricter measures have subsequently been implemented, to include extending most dates. Now if you compare above and below to what we were doing (and saying) back home at the same time, aside from restricting travel from China and Europe, you have the answer:

- XXX is in total lock down as of tomorrow noon and until April 5
- Everyone is to stay at home, except:
- travel to work if telework is not an option
- travel to go get groceries, go to the pharmacy, the doctor, post office, bank or to fuel up the car
- All gatherings are prohibited
- Physical exercise outside is authorized and recommended but only two people, not in a group
- Businesses should telework at a maximum. Those who cannot, need to practice social distancing and if they cannot not provide social distancing, they should close.
- Non essential stores will be closed, except bookstores, groceries, pharmacies, animal care stores.
- Access to groceries will be limited to 1 person per 10 square meter for 30 minutes only
- Hairdressers can only take one customer at the time
- Markets will not be held
- Social distancing will also be key in public transportation
- All non-essential travel abroad is unauthorized until April 5.
(My note--that particular country will review measures on 27 March to determine whether to extend; the decision has pretty much already been made)

If you want more precise analysis, you'll need to do the research yourself. Happy to be interviewed for your project if you want objective, first hand insight.

That seemed pretty fair. Thanks for the work you did to write that and I appreciate your efforts to avoid attacking anyone (other than the negative stuff you said about me - but I'm fine with that).

 

[Caballus]

I live in a world where truth is essential, regardless to whether it's negative or positive ("no egos, no BS"). Just loving observations.

Just translated today's email below regarding updated local rules for my area. Provides an example of the communications I mentioned. Not included are all the measures locals are taking to make this work--child care, pharmacists delivering food, etc. (fast food and chains are not as much a thing here):

Short outdoor activities (run, walk, bicycle) are authorized and encouraged by the XXXXX authorities, provided everyone respects the following conditions:

• Only get out in close vicinity of your residence. It is not allowed to drive to another location to start your outdoor activities there;
• You can get out with all the members in your household, by yourself or with one other friend while respecting a social distance of 1.5 meters.
• No gatherings are allowed. You are not allowed to play football (means soccer) outside nor to sit on a bench. Police have been checking and issuing fines to people not respecting these measures.
• Some parks had to close because there were too many people .
• You and your children can be in your own yard without restrictions.


Grocery stores
You can drive to the grocery store but only one person is allowed inside the store. If you are a single parent, they should let you in with your child. Some stores open early for senior citizens only.

Stores/restaurants
All non food related stores, restaurants and hairdressers are closed.

Hospitals in the local area
Do not go to the hospital before you have talked to your doctor over the phone.


Trash pick-up

If you live in (among others) XXX, you depend on XXXX to pick up trash.
If you live in (among others) XXXX, you depend on XXX to pick up trash.


• Cardboard and PMC (plastic recycling) will not be picked up
• Only regular trash will be picked up according to the schedule. They may be late on their schedule so you can leave your trash bags until 5p.m. If still not picked up by the end of the day, they ask you to put them back on the sidewalk on the next collection day per the regular schedule.
• Recycling parks are closed
• More info on www.XXXX


Masks and hydro-alcoholic solution

As first priority is to issue masks and hydro- alcoholic solutions to the hospitals and health care providers, local pharmacies will only provide these items with a doctor’s prescription. Local pharmacies may issue one item per customer but the pharmacy will add your name on the registration log so that you cannot be issued the item twice.

Driving

You can only be on the road for essential travel. This includes:

• Go to work if telework is not an option; If carpooling, you can only take one additional person in your car (2 max) one in front, one in the back to respect social distancing;
• Go to the grocery store;
• Go to the doctor, pharmacy, bank but you have to call them first;
• Go to the ATM
• Go fuel up your car
• All other travel is not authorized.


Borders

Borders can only be crossed for essential travel. Please note that only the borders at XXXX and XXXX can be used to cross the XXXX- XXXX border for essential travel and they are manned by the Police. Please also note that you need an authorization to drive in XXXX (neighboring country).

See above.

Airlines/Airports

• XXXX closed all its infrastructure
• XXXX is still operational but airlines have considerably reduced their flights. Check with the respective airlines for more information.
• All passengers arriving at XXXX Airport will be quarantined in their XXXX residence for 2 weeks.

 

[Docscurlock]

I am not talking about time. I am talking about execution process. The government where I am handled the crisis much more precisely than we did--I am not talking about shutting down borders, I am talking about communicating what was going on, keeping people informed, and being completely transparent as they figured things out. I am not saying we are all gooned up. I am saying we have some best practices that we can take away if we look beyond our shores--or even beyond our noses.

I am in a unique situation--I am not as bound by orders as you may assume and am well immersed in local societies--because you put me here. We have a saying: to the job you (American public) expect us to do, we have to "go 49% native." Part of that job is to provide you with strategic context and objective ground truth. You're welcome

I do not have much respect for most of our networks. I do, however, respect their right to focus on whatever they wish. They are businesses that are driven by demand. I compare it to the complaints about athletes being over paid--fans get what fans want. Conversely, I believe the public is irresponsible for blaming domestic disagreements on the media, when all the media does is amplify the public voice (pick your camp).

It seems you answered your own question about how the government in the US seemed to be slow in their response in the "I love COVID" thread better than I could, decentralized federal government.

 

[Caballus]

It seems you answered your own question about how the government in the US seemed to be slow in their response in the "I love COVID" thread better than I could, decentralized federal government.

That was a different issue. The BBC article our British friend cited was focused on interaction between the President and the governors of Conn, NJ and NY and the ultimate decision not to quarantine the states. That is a case study for federalism in action. To someone with a more centralized government model and who doesn't understand ours, it may appear disjointed. The personalities involved and what some would see as petty bickering and vindictiveness is altogether separate.

The point from the experiences I shared above is that there was (and still is) much for us to learn from others; just as there is much that we can share. For that to happen, we have to admit that we could have responded better (given everything we knew at that time), that we are still behind in some areas and be humble enough to work cooperatively with others.


The examples above are a mix of national and local responses and guidance. As you look across Europe, you can compare centralized systems to federal systems and see similar responses all the way to the local level. Switzerland is as federalized as you can get; Germany is federal as well, and Belgium constantly talks about splitting in two. Yet when you look at them, along with many others (NL, DK, PL, etc.), you find a useful set of best practices:
- Came out of COVID denial more quickly at local, state/regional and national levels than we did
- Developed and communicated plans more aggressively and effectively at all levels (national, state/regional, and local)
- Approached more cooperatively from the local through international level

There are still politics and strong opinions, but they are overshadowed by cooperation, not vice versa

Example of cooperation below (not necessarily the most objective news source, but the facts are accurate)
https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/28...own-from-france-and-italy-to-german-hospitals

 

[Hack]

That was a different issue. The BBC article our British friend cited was focused on interaction between the President and the governors of Conn, NJ and NY and the ultimate decision not to quarantine the states. That is a case study for federalism in action. To someone with a more centralized government model and who doesn't understand ours, it may appear disjointed. The personalities involved and what some would see as petty bickering and vindictiveness is altogether separate.

The point from the experiences I shared above is that there was (and still is) much for us to learn from others; just as there is much that we can share. For that to happen, we have to admit that we could have responded better (given everything we knew at that time), that we are still behind in some areas and be humble enough to work cooperatively with others.


The examples above are a mix of national and local responses and guidance. As you look across Europe, you can compare centralized systems to federal systems and see similar responses all the way to the local level. Switzerland is as federalized as you can get; Germany is federal as well, and Belgium constantly talks about splitting in two. Yet when you look at them, along with many others (NL, DK, PL, etc.), you find a useful set of best practices:
- Came out of COVID denial more quickly at local, state/regional and national levels than we did
- Developed and communicated plans more aggressively and effectively at all levels (national, state/regional, and local)
- Approached more cooperatively from the local through international level

There are still politics and strong opinions, but they are overshadowed by cooperation, not vice versa

Example of cooperation below (not necessarily the most objective news source, but the facts are accurate)
https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/28...own-from-france-and-italy-to-german-hospitals

Good post. Another thing to consider is the character of the American people and how it's reflected in our government. There are a lot of "leave me alone - I don't care what the consequences for me are" attitudes in fly over country America. The cities are full of a lot more people who want the government to take care of them and welcome more government control. I think that attitude is probably more like the attitude of Europeans. And so in places like Europe it's a more natural thing for government to lock down on people. And it will happen more quickly, because the government officials don't have much to worry about with respect to repercussions if they locked down and in hindsight it wasn't needed.

 

[Docscurlock]

That was a different issue. The BBC article our British friend cited was focused on interaction between the President and the governors of Conn, NJ and NY and the ultimate decision not to quarantine the states. That is a case study for federalism in action. To someone with a more centralized government model and who doesn't understand ours, it may appear disjointed. The personalities involved and what some would see as petty bickering and vindictiveness is altogether separate.

I know that he was trying to make it look like our Federal .gov was fighting with our states .gov but the fact that we are a decentralized government was the point I was trying to get at unsuccessfully with you. Does our federal government even have a mechanism to tell the citizens of particular states what they can or cannot do without going so far as declaring martial law. With the decentralized system we have it is up to each state to enforce "quarantines" on it's citizens. The reason New York is the disaster it is is because of the slow response of it's mayor and governor. Could Trump, even if he somehow knew that this was going to be a pandemic, have forced the mayor of New York to enforce travel restrictions without a lawsuit being filed and the enforcement decree being nullified by a liberal judge?

 

[Caballus]

Good post. Another thing to consider is the character of the American people and how it's reflected in our government. There are a lot of "leave me alone - I don't care what the consequences for me are" attitudes in fly over country America. The cities are full of a lot more people who want the government to take care of them and welcome more government control. I think that attitude is probably more like the attitude of Europeans. And so in places like Europe it's a more natural thing for government to lock down on people. And it will happen more quickly, because the government officials don't have much to worry about with respect to repercussions if they locked down and in hindsight it wasn't needed.

Agree with you completely on our independent attitude. I had a Swedish friend tell me a while back that it is more natural to turn to the government in time of need than it is to turn to family--very odd from an American perspective. They went on to explain, however, that they trust the government and their control over it (not its control over them). They also explained that they pay such high taxes so they can get an immediate response when in need. To them, it's like hiring an agent to take care of certain functions.

As for control and lock down, I disagree. The Second World War and Cold War led to considerably more sensitivities than we have. This is seen through everything from data protection laws, to rights against illegal search, etc. It's natural as Americans to think we are "freer" than anyone else in the world, but that definitely is not the case. Many of the protections, to us as Americans, are absolutely absurd, but they translate to individual rights.

What I will say from an American perspective is that in general (and this is VERY general), Europeans follow rules more than we do. They (generally) maintain that good living is attributable to good order.

 

[Hack]

Agree with you completely on our independent attitude. I had a Swedish friend tell me a while back that it is more natural to turn to the government in time of need than it is to turn to family--very odd from an American perspective. They went on to explain, however, that they trust the government and their control over it (not its control over them). They also explained that they pay such high taxes so they can get an immediate response when in need. To them, it's like hiring an agent to take care of certain functions.

As for control and lock down, I disagree. The Second World War and Cold War led to considerably more sensitivities than we have. This is seen through everything from data protection laws, to rights against illegal search, etc. It's natural as Americans to think we are "freer" than anyone else in the world, but that definitely is not the case. Many of the protections, to us as Americans, are absolutely absurd, but they translate to individual rights.

What I will say from an American perspective is that in general (and this is VERY general), Europeans follow rules more than we do. They (generally) maintain that good living is attributable to good order.

Could be you are right. Maybe I'm too focused on comparing certain specifics such as access to guns.

I always think of the police as coming by after the crime and I think of them as typically being far away. A consequence of growing up in a rural area. And I think it's logical that most people should have weapons at hand to protect themselves.

Surprised to hear your thoughts about illegal searches. Not surprised about data protection. But I don't really believe anyone's data is protected anymore. There may be a law, but that just means the relevant agencies don't share with the public. They still most likely have your data.

 

[Caballus]

Yeah, the gun thing is definitely different, and for us originates, I think, from three things: 1) Protect ourselves against a tyrannical government (vestiges of England), 2) need to immediately raise a militia to defend against an invading force, 3) the need for firearms to survive, especially as we moved westward. Although I am not a gun control guy, I think our arguments need to be refreshed, but that's separate.

Some parts of Europe share 2 & 3 with us. I don't know of any that would share #1 other than in a moment of cynicism. However, there are several that are better prepared than we are when it comes to #2. This is particularly true of the Swiss, the Baltic States, and the Nordics. Not only are they armed, they are trained. All males and in some cases females are required to serve, with few exceptions. After initial training (or service) most have to attend periodic refresher training of some sort and remain in the reserves until their 50s. If take a train through Switzerland on a Friday, you guaranteed to share a car with a young troop or two who is heading home for the weekend with his service rifle. Hunting is still a thing too.

Having said that, the controls vary per country, but in all cases they are much tighter than back home. On the other hand, mano a mano crime tends to be much much much lower than it is at home. As an old buddy used to say, "different folks stroke different..."

Edit: The EU continues to tighten privacy laws, to a point that drives Google and FB nuts. If I don't use a VPN, there are a lot of US sites I can't access because they don't meet EU privacy standards. Germany is probably the strictest, but the EU as a whole has strict data laws and policies. Following 9/11, our biggest sticking point with Europe was over sharing of passenger name lists. It wasn't that they didn't want to share, but that we couldn't assure them that we could protect the data (recognizing there were more innocent people than terrorists) and we didn't have the same limits on how long we can hold (innocent) data. We worked through it all, but its an example.

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