Science is now cancelled? [USERS NOW BANNED FOR POLITICS]

[sk47]

@sk47
Given that you’ve frequently replied with a mix of ideas, sometimes based in science, sometimes in politics and at other times you’ve discussed the potential impact of this changing world, I’d highly recommend you check these vids out.
The presenter doesn’t usually delve into politics, opinion or potential impact statements. These videos are entirely based on his experiences as a geologist, a science reporter and his personal opinions, based on what he’s seen.

I‘d be interested to see your take on his presentation, or anyone else‘s interpretation if they are concerned for the future.

It’s worth pointing out that the vids were produced in 2018, so some of the info may no longer be current.

I‘ll also add that part 2 addresses your concerns regarding the financial cost, complete with a genuine example of a nation giving it a proper go.
You might be quite surprised at the results.

Hello; Got around to watching the second video. I already knew of much of the stuff from reading, watching and paying attention. I did not know of details about Australia for example but do know about carbon trade schemes.
One such scheme happened in my country. That was when car companies could offset by paying to get old less fuel efficient or more polluting off the road. I guess some poorly running vehicles did get taken off the road. However what happened in my area was vehicles which had not run in decades being dragged out of fields, rivers and such to be turned in for the credit. I am thinking of a program before cash for clunkers, which happened later.
Cash for clinkers was also a program which caused people to ruin decent running vehicles. To qualify the engine had to be toast, so people would pour sand or such into a running engine. Might sound like a good program as it got some vehicles with less than stellar MPG's off the road. However the manufacture cost of a replacement new vehicle was not considered. One of the ways I try to have a smaller environmental footprint is to keep any machinery in good running condition for a long time. I keep a car or truck for many years. That way there is less new environmental cost.
Another cost was for the less well off financially. It took away a lot of affordable used vehicles. The cost of used vehicles went way up. Supply and demand. Some folks could not afford a new vehicle and then could not afford a decent used vehicle. The cash for clunkers program was paying more than the used vehicle could bring in the used car market.

This next bit was sparked by comments in the video. We almost always pay a cost when the government gets involved in our lives. In particular I am thinking of the mandated things now required on a vehicle. All these mandated things add cost to a vehicle. These mandated things also add weight and it is my understanding the extra weight has reduced furl economy.
I use to know how much it cost the government to give away a dollar. This will be off some but maybe it will cost the government $4 to give away $1. What am I getting at? All the carbon credit trades or taxes or other such programs have heavy government involvement. In general anything I can do for myself costs less than anything the government can do for me.
Some things we need the government to do. Military, road building, secure a border, traffic laws and such. Some things the government does not need to be a part of. Forcing me to buy and use an EV is one. I will get one when it suits me is the way I see it.

I will try to be brief on this last point. I replaced all my incandescent lights, first with CFLs and later with LED's. I did so because the cost points became acceptable and I could see the value of reducing electricity use. In the video he went on about how much improved solar, wind and hydrogen have become. That they are now competitive with traditional fossil fuels. Great news. Then let them compete on their own merits and may the better or more practical tech win. When it gets to the point an EV or solar panel system or wind generator equals, or even better beats the old stuff, then such will take over.
Generating house electricity will appeal more than an EV in the near term. I do not like being told I cannot go but a new ICE vehicle in nine years. That is a government step too far. Best I can tell I will wind up getting less useful service at a much higher cost.
I can see taking away incentives for fossil fuels, but only if the incentives for solar, wind and hydrogen area also taken away.

Sponsored

 

[sk47]

Not all carbon offsets are a scam—but many still are (msn.com)

Hello; Ran across this today. Seems to fit into the stuff I was writing about.

 

[Gregs24]

Hello; Tesla had a problem which made the web page news recently. Seems the company made a contract to install solar panels for a price and then decided to raise the price by 10's of thousands.. The people decided to sue Tesla. Their cars are crashing when on auto drive. Not death knells for the company I guess, but does not make me want one more than before.

Agree, as I said I'm far from a Tesla fan, but globally there are many who are. I also detest Elon Musk, but somehow others think he is the second coming.

The point is that just because neither you nor I can see why Tesla have succeeded, in the same way Norway have electrified their cars en masse. Not trying to convince you of anything other than things happen that we may not expect and the Texas EV surge may be just around the corner! Stranger things have happened.

 

[Gregs24]

I lived in northern Wisconsin in the 1970's, gravel road. The oil trucks came about once a month. Kept the dust down.

Hilarious! How times change. I suspect you are still drinking some of it now as it seeps into the watercourses.

 

[K4fxd]

Hilarious! How times change.

They still do tar and chip gravel driveways......

 

[Burkey]

Hello; Watched the first video so far will look at the second later.
I may have other thoughts but one stands out to me. The praise for Chinas efforts in terms of solar and wind energy use sounds good until the fact they continue to build a couple or more new coal fired power plants each month and apparently will do so till at least 2030. Then there is the stated fact in the video China is now the #1 emitter of CO2. So China is #1 in solar/wind energy and #1 in co2 emissions. I get it.
China a large country with a huge population which needs energy for industry and for people use. Solar and wind does not fill the needs currently even with what advances which were touted in the video. I will come back to my broken record sort of point later in other posts, but will state it here as well. It is the population numbers which make a big difference.
It seems that no matter how "green minded" the Chinese may be on one side of the environment coin, they are very much heavy into accepting pollution to meet needs for energy on the other side. A sort of Janus personality.

I feel like this requires some context. The Chinese population (~1.4 billion) outnumber Americans (~330 million) at roughly 4:1.
Indeed they do contribute more CO2 than the US but it’s a close contest. Why? Because they’ve invested in renewables. If they hadn’t, you could reasonably expect their contribution to exceed the US by about 200, 300 or 400%.
It’s also worth mentioning that China is going through a massive development boom, all of which contributes to their footprint.
So yeah, it seems that you’re only portraying part of the bigger picture here, but it’s not like I‘m providing full context either...just some points that are worth remembering when trying to make comparisons.

 

[Burkey]

More propaganda. Norway is is slightly larger than Tx and has 25,000.000 less people.

1. I was referring to Australia...that’s my fault for not being specific.
2. Propaganda? It’s a PRACTICAL example of how it CAN be made to work. At no point was it suggested that it would work in ALL areas.
3. Don’t take too much notice of Australia these days. Our conservative government, lead by an evangelical and funded by the big polluters, isn‘t worth the time.

 

[Burkey]

You don’t MAKE practical solutions work. They work because they are a better solution. You MAKE solutions work when better solutions are available.

The problem is 90% of the world is worried about their problems tomorrow. The solutions is not telling them they should worry about problems 50 years from now. EVs will work when they make that 90%s life cheaper tomorrow.

I wasn’t referring specifically to EV’s...

My point was that a solution that works in one region might not work in another.
EV’s are a prime example of that, as are PV cells. No good placing a solar system on your home if it’s covered in snow for half the year and electricity is cheap.

The flipside being that it makes a lot of sense if you live in a sunny area where power is costly. So much sense that you’d have to be an idiot not to do it.
Now, if you’ve gone and installed that solar array and discover that you’re producing a massive surplus of power during the day, you might find that the cost of a battery isn’t so bad, because you can now store that power and perhaps use it to either power the home at night, OR, charge that new EV that suddenly makes a loot of sense financially because the cost of charging it just dropped significantly... imagine never paying for fuel (gas) again?

See where I’m going with this? One small change leads to new opportunities.

I‘m reasonably confident that the free-market will lead the way, as it usually has.
Your late model car is more fuel efficient/more powerful than something of similar capacity produced 30 years ago due to those very principles.

A competitive market soon sorts the wheat from the chaff.

 

[Gregs24]

Yes indeed, but a bit different to spraying oil on unsealed dust which washes away rather more easily and uncontrolled..

 

[Gregs24]

I wasn’t referring specifically to EV’s...

My point was that a solution that works in one region might not work in another.
EV’s are a prime example of that, as are PV cells. No good placing a solar system on your home if it’s covered in snow for half the year and electricity is cheap.

The flipside being that it makes a lot of sense if you live in a sunny area where power is costly. So much sense that you’d have to be an idiot not to do it.
Now, if you’ve gone and installed that solar array and discover that you’re producing a massive surplus of power during the day, you might find that the cost of a battery isn’t so bad, because you can now store that power and perhaps use it to either power the home at night, OR, charge that new EV that suddenly makes a loot of sense financially because the cost of charging it just dropped significantly... imagine never paying for fuel (gas) again?

See where I’m going with this? One small change leads to new opportunities.

I‘m reasonably confident that the free-market will lead the way, as it usually has.
Your late model car is more fuel efficient/more powerful than something of similar capacity produced 30 years ago due to those very principles.

A competitive market soon sorts the wheat from the chaff.

Exactly what I do (and many many others). Charge our PHEV from solar panels during the day. Haven't been to the fuel station yet since we bought the car 1200 miles ago (in fact have only used about 2 gallons so far) Interestingly there are now ways of storing that excess electricity in your car battery and then pushing it back into the house at night if you want to.

I'm quite sure this approach would work very well in sunny Texas for many people and be more convenient and cheaper.

 

[Gregs24]

Ahh I see

 

[Burkey]

Exactly what I do (and many many others). Charge our PHEV from solar panels during the day. Haven't been to the fuel station yet since we bought the car 1200 miles ago (in fact have only used about 2 gallons so far) Interestingly there are now ways of storing that excess electricity in your car battery and then pushing it back into the house at night if you want to.

I'm quite sure this approach would work very well in sunny Texas for many people and be more convenient and cheaper.

And these are the kinds of innovations I expect to see as we move forward.
It seems that some lack imagination.
They assume that battery tech is stagnant.
They assume that the current solutions are the final solutions.
I can’t wait for the future. It’s exciting.
There‘s never been a better time to be alive than right now.

 

[Gregs24]

And these are the kinds of innovations I expect to see as we move forward.
It seems that some lack imagination.
They assume that battery tech is stagnant.
They assume that the current solutions are the final solutions.
I can’t wait for the future. It’s exciting.
There‘s never been a better time to be alive than right now.

Can't agree more. Some people are negative about everything and constantly moan the future is awful - must be pretty grim living with somebody like that. I know for certain that the past was pretty grim at times, and that doesn't just concern old cars !

So many people buy a classic car and then discover that it is actually pretty crap by the standards of today, as it wobbles and splutters it's way along before breaking down at a crucial moment.

 

[sk47]

Hello; The last few posts have been about how well the solar panels and EV's do or can work. From the point of view of the posters the future is going to be good with all the new tech. OK, say I believe you. Then why are the rest of us being forced into this new way of doing things. If it is as good as you claim then plenty of people ought top be scrambling to join in.
Why do we need legislation from states saying no ICE will be sold at some soon date. Why are some companies such as Volvo going all electric soon and not giving customers a choice?

I may have a clue. The EV's have limited range. Better than years ago but still limited. Lets use 300 miles as a base with the understanding not all can go 300 yet. There were many times in the past when I needed to drive over 300 miles in a day. Not so much now but I still sometimes wind up more than 150 miles from home.
I used this example before. I go to Knoxville TN a few times a year as it is the closest large city at around 60 miles away. So there and back is 120 if I do not need to make drives to several places. I tend to make several stops to make the trip worth wile. I would want some cushion in terms of miles in case of a traffic jam and I wind up sitting with heat on in cold weather or AC on in warm. What about wipers, headlights, stereos and other things which use up charge.

I use to have to make trips to Indianapolis In and back on weekends to see my father. That was at least 350 miles one way. I would sometimes put over 1000 miles on in a trip as my father needed me to do things for him. So a six and a half hour drive will have at least one stop to charge each way. What I hear is it can take 40 minutes to do a fast charge if there is a charger handy.

Then there is the cost of EV's , solar panels and wind compared to current tech. I hear the claim these are now becoming competitive. An EV is way more expensive than an equivalent ICE without the incentives. Still not a deal with incentives. I did check out an EV (hybrid) a few years ago. I could buy an ICE for less even with the incentives and did not face an expensive battery pack in about a decade. I bought a Nissan Sentra and 20 years later, no major bills other than a failed component in the security (anti theft)system. ( I bought Nissan because they used a metal timing chain and not a belt. That way I did not have a $1000 bill to replace the belt. At 20 years I would be looking at a second belt now)

Solar panels still cost multiple tens of thousands of dollars last I heard. It would take a lot of years to get a payback. My electric bill last month was $55 and is around $110 at the highest in the winter. I do conserve electricity.
Some power companies have stopped giving credit for excess energy from solar panels. I could invest in a battery pack to store the excess at additional expense. I could swing the cash if I used up my retirement savings, but wonder how the paycheck to paycheck folks will manage to buy solar panels.

I do not have much to say about wind. That is beyond the scope of most individuals. If it is indeed cheaper to make power with them, then I imagine power companies are jumping at the chance. So we will not have to be forced to go wind if it is cheaper power. I do not care how my electricity is produced as long as it is reliable and not too expensive. Oh, let me add one more thing. That there is enough electricity for all my regular uses plus all the EV's to come. It would be a bad sign if some places were having brown outs currently even before all the EV's start raising demand.
We saw what the supply and demand thing did to gas prices during the Colonial pipeline shutdown. If the demand for electricity exceeded supply might the price go up?

But the future is rosy is what I hear.

 

[Gregs24]

Hello; The last few posts have been about how well the solar panels and EV's do or can work. From the point of view of the posters the future is going to be good with all the new tech. OK, say I believe you. Then why are the rest of us being forced into this new way of doing things. If it is as good as you claim then plenty of people ought top be scrambling to join in.
Why do we need legislation from states saying no ICE will be sold at some soon date. Why are some companies such as Volvo going all electric soon and not giving customers a choice?

I may have a clue. The EV's have limited range. Better than years ago but still limited. Lets use 300 miles as a base with the understanding not all can go 300 yet. There were many times in the past when I needed to drive over 300 miles in a day. Not so much now but I still sometimes wind up more than 150 miles from home.
I used this example before. I go to Knoxville TN a few times a year as it is the closest large city at around 60 miles away. So there and back is 120 if I do not need to make drives to several places. I tend to make several stops to make the trip worth wile. I would want some cushion in terms of miles in case of a traffic jam and I wind up sitting with heat on in cold weather or AC on in warm. What about wipers, headlights, stereos and other things which use up charge.

I use to have to make trips to Indianapolis In and back on weekends to see my father. That was at least 350 miles one way. I would sometimes put over 1000 miles on in a trip as my father needed me to do things for him. So a six and a half hour drive will have at least one stop to charge each way. What I hear is it can take 40 minutes to do a fast charge if there is a charger handy.

Then there is the cost of EV's , solar panels and wind compared to current tech. I hear the claim these are now becoming competitive. An EV is way more expensive than an equivalent ICE without the incentives. Still not a deal with incentives. I did check out an EV (hybrid) a few years ago. I could buy an ICE for less even with the incentives and did not face an expensive battery pack in about a decade. I bought a Nissan Sentra and 20 years later, no major bills other than a failed component in the security (anti theft)system. ( I bought Nissan because they used a metal timing chain and not a belt. That way I did not have a $1000 bill to replace the belt. At 20 years I would be looking at a second belt now)

Solar panels still cost multiple tens of thousands of dollars last I heard. It would take a lot of years to get a payback. My electric bill last month was $55 and is around $110 at the highest in the winter. I do conserve electricity.
Some power companies have stopped giving credit for excess energy from solar panels. I could invest in a battery pack to store the excess at additional expense. I could swing the cash if I used up my retirement savings, but wonder how the paycheck to paycheck folks will manage to buy solar panels.

I do not have much to say about wind. That is beyond the scope of most individuals. If it is indeed cheaper to make power with them, then I imagine power companies are jumping at the chance. So we will not have to be forced to go wind if it is cheaper power. I do not care how my electricity is produced as long as it is reliable and not too expensive. Oh, let me add one more thing. That there is enough electricity for all my regular uses plus all the EV's to come. It would be a bad sign if some places were having brown outs currently even before all the EV's start raising demand.
We saw what the supply and demand thing did to gas prices during the Colonial pipeline shutdown. If the demand for electricity exceeded supply might the price go up?

But the future is rosy is what I hear.

The ICE ban is for many reasons, CO2, NOx PM2.5, PM10 - localised pollution at the point of use, especially the case in busy cities. Many city centres in Europe are already ICE free and the positive effects of this are spreading out to where people live and work. The COVID lockdown showed just how quickly pollution levels can fall when ICE use drops dramatically. So the reasons are sound and popular over here in Europe.

Volvo are just responding to demand, if they were producing the wrong cars people wouldn't be buying them and yet Volvo sold more cars and made a bigger profit in 2019 than it has ever done, so the demand is clearly there.

The average UK driver does 30 miles a day, yes there will be some that do MUCH more but there will obviously also be some that do much less. Our PHEV Kuga has a range of around 35 miles and so far in 1200 miles we have put no petrol in it (and used about 2 gallons from new) so it works brilliantly for us. For the use that we put that car too ICE is a poor second best. We do use our PV to charge but with the UK power generation already going over 50% renewable then plugging it in is still a 'green' option. It is also much cheaper, about a quarter of the price of petrol. Our Kuga PHEV was exactly the same price for the equivalent diesel engine car.

UK offshore windfarms are huge and growing fast.

I completely understand that a BEV doesn't work for everybody, and other technologies may solve that quite soon for many(solid state batteries are likely to double range, reduce weight and have much faster charge rates) or FCEV's, BUT it does work for me and many others, and is in fact better than an ICE car, with the huge advantage where pollution is concerned.

Sales of EV's in the US are also growing strongly, so they must work for people there too.

Sponsored