Science is now cancelled? [USERS NOW BANNED FOR POLITICS]

[GT 550]

Very quiet in here…

Yes. Apparently science IS now cancelled.

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[GT Pony]

More like the trolls have been cancelled.

 

[GT 550]

Ok in that case I'll ask a question.

There's been quite a bit of commentary from health experts here suggesting that the Omicron wave has 'peaked' but not much about what this actually means in the context of a pandemic going forward.

Noting the reporting and recording of cases is rubbery at best for many reasons a 'peak' could mean several things ranging from numbers stabilising at current levels to a gradual reduction hereon or the onset of herd immunity.

Is anyone able to shed light on this?

 

[rick81721]

I see there is another kook that stumbled into this thread. Wonder how long until he gets banned too.

He ought to like this hysterical response from a school regarding fentanyl -

https://www.courant.com/news/connec...0220121-72rqasylgrghjmb4o43mf24lhu-story.html

Bleach and OxyClean is way more of a risk to the students. Idiots.

Seriously? Opioids kill more people (and young people) than any other drug. By far.

70000 dead in 2020

 

[Gregs24]

Two-thirds with Omicron say they have had Covid before - BBC News

Doesn't say much for natural immunity! Lucky that omicron is less virulent and the UK had such a good booster roll out.

Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission findings | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

 

[Gregs24]

They just testing wastewater for the 100,000 ft view.

As we have seen so far they don't have a clue what they are doing LOL.

I just look at oil inventory draws and distillate levels - they tells the while story on the ground. Cant drive if in the hospital haha.

As we have seen you don't have a clue what you are talking about.

Do you visit planet Earth at any point ?

 

[Gregs24]

Ok in that case I'll ask a question.

There's been quite a bit of commentary from health experts here suggesting that the Omicron wave has 'peaked' but not much about what this actually means in the context of a pandemic going forward.

Noting the reporting and recording of cases is rubbery at best for many reasons a 'peak' could mean several things ranging from numbers stabilising at current levels to a gradual reduction hereon or the onset of herd immunity.

Is anyone able to shed light on this?

The first thing is that omicron is MUCH more transmissible than any other strain. This is good (but could have been catastrophic if it had been more virulent) because it overwhelms all other strains. If you are a 'delta virion' (virus particle), omicron beats you to all the available hosts so you cannot spread.

This is quite dramatic as omicron has effectively obliterated delta within a few weeks - and consider how effective delta was.

So we have a very contagious, less virulent strain.

It spreads so quickly that it rapidly starts to run out of available hosts (those that are naïve or with poor / failing immunity). Once this has happened then it can only grumble along at a fairly low level, popping up again when it can get more hosts. This will be in the winter, when vaccine immunity and or natural immunity wane.

For another strain the be successful it has to be more contagious than omicron, which will take some doing. Even if there were a new strain, and even if it were more virulent, it is still trying to spread in a population that has almost entirely been exposed to omicron. Life can be tough for a virus!

In reality omicron is unstoppable and results in a very high, but short peak in infections. Once it has gone through there will be several months where a further significant peak is impossible. Note that in the UK there will be a smaller secondary peak as a result of the school children going back to school (the main peak was when they were off over Christmas)

There will never be genuine herd immunity as neither natural nor vaccinal immunity are sterilising or permanent.

It is likely that omicron, or an omicron derivative, will be around most winters and that a booster vaccination may be required every year or two as with flu. There are Coronaviruses around today that have been around for hundreds of years that cause the common cold - that is what COVID19 will eventually become.

I expect next winter to be the equivalent of a bad flu winter (and likely flu will be bad as well next year) and then after that it will largely slip off the radar.

 

[GT 550]

It spreads so quickly that it rapidly starts to run out of available hosts (those that are naïve or with poor / failing immunity).

Thanks Greg, given that it's so contagious and 'natural nor vaccinal immunity are sterilising or permanent' why doesn't it simply reinfect and keep going around?

I've possibly missed something in your post.

 

[Gregs24]

Thanks Greg, given that it's so contagious and 'natural nor vaccinal immunity are sterilising or permanent' why doesn't it simply reinfect and keep going around?

I've possibly missed something in your post.

It does keep going around as per post #9401 above. However there is a period of time after infection or vaccination where you are very unlikely to catch it because of high levels of circulating antibodies. This is especially true after a third 'booster' dose where antibody levels are 40x or more those after the second dose of the primary course. Natural immunity is very variable, some are protected as well as post vaccination, some are almost completely unprotected, so having had COVID once without a vaccination is very unlikely to be protective for long.

This is no different to other coronaviruses / viruses in general, where you have a degree of immunity (variable) for a period of time (variable) so you catch it again at some point in the future.

This then comes back to high risk periods such as winter, long enough time after last infection or vaccine etc, to determine how many people are potential hosts and how big a wave will be. Of course if those things don't coincide one year, they may the next with more severe consequences (as with flu)

 

[Burkey]

Interesting read. Basically repeating what @Gregs24 has been saying the whole time. Wonder how SK might misinterpret the findings…

https://news.ohsu.edu/2022/01/25/new-study-suggests-two-paths-toward-super-immunity-to-covid-19

 

[CJJon]

Seriously? Opioids kill more people (and young people) than any other drug. By far.

70000 dead in 2020

Yeah, they are idiots. So is anyone that thinks fentanyl is some sort of chemical weapon that if you get some on you you will die. There is no way that you can OD from fentanyl in the air or on the soles of your shoes or getting some on your hands. It is not that reactive.

It is an hysterical response to a threat that does not exist. Certainly it isn't a reasoned response based on science.

 

[rick81721]

Yeah, they are idiots. So is anyone that thinks fentanyl is some sort of chemical weapon that if you get some on you you will die. There is no way that you can OD from fentanyl in the air or on the soles of your shoes or getting some on your hands. It is not that reactive.

It is an hysterical response to a threat that does not exist. Certainly it isn't a reasoned response based on science.

Well of course you won't die from being near or touching fentanyl. But to suggest it is not deadly to children is flat-out wrong. Opioids kill more children than any other "poisoning".

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2719580

 

[wingnutt]

Very quiet in here…

that’s because it’s become a useless thread to anyone who isn’t a pro-vax cheerleader

 

[key01]

that’s because it’s become a useless thread to anyone who isn’t a pro-vax cheerleader

no not really. The non vax league has shown they can continue to clog up the hospital system and die.Hurray for them. Their posts are always full of BS and conspiracy and more boring information of non-substance.

 

[Strokerswild]

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