Oh no, here comes the cylinder deactivation nonsense.

Mikthehun1

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They will have to in Europe, as by 2032 there will be no more new ICE cars in many European countries. Some by 2030 such as France and Holland.
No NEW cars. Good luck getting every exist ICE off the road. Just try doing all deliveries/long haul trucking with an EV. The bulk of transportation emissions are not private vehicles, they are commercial. As far as we are from ICE parity in the personal vehicle space, we are even further from basic functionality for commercial applications.





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Vlad Soare

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They will have to in Europe, as by 2032 there will be no more new ICE cars in many European countries. Some by 2030 such as France and Holland.
We'll see. Those are just high-level plans. Governments will change several times until then. Priorities and policies may change. If it won't be possible they'll have to give up.
If European manufacturers aren't able to sell enough EVs, and dropping the ICE production spells bankruptcy, then the governments will have to relent.
I seem to remember that one US state wanted to ban gas engines by 2020 or so, but as the deadline was approaching and they saw it wasn't possible, they postponed it. California, maybe? I can't remember. Is this true, or have I dreamt it?
Intending to do something is one thing. Being able to actually do it is another.
 

Gregs24

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No NEW cars. Good luck getting every exist ICE off the road. Just try doing all deliveries/long haul trucking with an EV. The bulk of transportation emissions are not private vehicles, they are commercial. As far as we are from ICE parity in the personal vehicle space, we are even further from basic functionality for commercial applications.
We'll see. Those are just high-level plans. Governments will change several times until then. Priorities and policies may change. If it won't be possible they'll have to give up.
If European manufacturers aren't able to sell enough EVs, and dropping the ICE production spells bankruptcy, then the governments will have to relent.
I seem to remember that one US state wanted to ban gas engines by 2020 or so, but as the deadline was approaching and they saw it wasn't possible, they postponed it. California, maybe? I can't remember. Is this true, or have I dreamt it?
Intending to do something is one thing. Being able to actually do it is another.
They are a bit more than that and 10 years is not long in car model planning. Yes, it is new vehicles, so there will be legacy ICE cars for a while, but by 10 years after 2030 (ish) there will not be many ICE vehicles left as a percentage. That then impacts on fuel supplies as petrol / gas stations will see sales fall and stop selling the fuel.

The investment in EV's by car makers is happening now so the opposite is true to what you suggest. the car makers will have spent all the development money by 2026/7 for cars released in 2028 /9 and will not want to see it wasted. Mercedes have already cancelled ALL ICE development - there will be no new MB ICE engine ranges just modifications of the current ranges.

https://newmobility.news/2019/09/20/mercedes-goes-for-e-offensive-and-discontinues-ice-investments/

Commercial electric vehicles are coming thick and fast - Ford offer electric Transits now and Tesla has experimental HGV's on the way. Battery technology is shooting ahead now (as it needs to)

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/tesla-semi-electric-lorry-launch-pushed-back-2020

Solid state batteries will be the ultimate way forward

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/elect...ies have been,larger devices and be recharged.

The US may lag Europe but that depends on whether Trump the coal man gets re-elected. Either way it will happen and within the next 15 to 20 years.

All a way away from cylinder deactivation !
 

Mikthehun1

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...All a way away from cylinder deactivation !
EV's are the ultimate cylinder deactivation technology. The system deactivates all the cylinders, all the time :giggle:
 

Vlad Soare

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We'll see. They can plan for it all they want, but if the overwhelming majority of the population doesn't buy EVs they will have to relent.
Heck, no European country will be able to increase its national electricity production and enhance its grid enough to sustain this madness in just ten years.
 

Gregs24

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We'll see. They can plan for it all they want, but if the overwhelming majority of the population doesn't buy EVs they will have to relent.
Heck, no European country will be able to increase its national electricity production and enhance its grid enough to sustain this madness in just ten years.
They will. ICE vehicles will be taxed to make them too expensive and EV's will be subsidised. The new 95g/km limit on all volume car makers is already killing the ICE. Makers need to sell loads of EV's / PHEV's to keep below that limit.

When it costs more to buy an ICE vehicle and it is more expensive to run then everybody will quickly swap to EV's. The new Kuga (Escape) PHEV is cheaper in the UK than the diesel of similar spec and cheaper to run. Ford expect to sell 50% of Kuga's as PHEV's
 

Vlad Soare

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We'll see. Subsidizing EVs isn't enough if most people have nowhere to charge them, and if a six hundred mile journey takes two days and one overnight charge. People may just prefer to hold on to their existing cars and not buy anything new at all.
Removing meat from the market and subsidizing broccoli doesn't mean that people will become vegetarian. They will vote for someone who promises to bring the meat back.
But we'll see.
 

shogun32

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The new Kuga (Escape) PHEV is cheaper in the UK than the diesel of similar spec and cheaper to run
in the short term. There is no magic that will suddenly change the physics of cracking crude though. You will ALWAYS get gasoline and diesel, naptha and a slew of others. What is the oil company supposed to do with the byproducts if "everything" is electric? Flare them? ICE is never going away unless Oil goes away. Sure the gov't may tax the living hell out of it to keep the costs higher per mile even though the fuel itself is practically free.

The best part of EV is that the gov't has a lovely kill switch to disable your vehicle and deny their subjects freedom of movement. With Sync and OnStar they can do that too, true, but those systems aren't nearly so integrated (yet) into the car that they can't be defeated. Your EV most assuredly is, and to get out from the thumb of tyranny will require a 'rooted ROM' ala cell phones.
 

Vlad Soare

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Sure the gov't may tax the living hell out of it to keep the costs higher per mile even though the fuel itself is practically free.
Come to think of it, they may not even do that. If gasoline and diesel are only used by a bunch of die-hards, and the majority of the population goes electric, then there will be no point in the government taxing the hell out of fuels. Electricity, however, will be at a premium and will be taxed as heavily as gas is taxed today.
So it could be even better in the long run, not worse. :D
 

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In 1981 GM offered Oldsmobile the 4-6-8 engine and here's how fast the Olds engineers ran from it.

98a.jpg
 

Mikthehun1

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We'll see. Subsidizing EVs isn't enough if most people have nowhere to charge them, and if a six hundred mile journey takes two days and one overnight charge. People may just prefer to hold on to their existing cars and not buy anything new at all.
Removing meat from the market and subsidizing broccoli doesn't mean that people will become vegetarian. They will vote for someone who promises to bring the meat back.
But we'll see.
Vote? Trust a politician to do something? Nah, just learn to hunt for your own meat. Deer are delicious, and I would gladly switch to venison fully if beef was taxed enough to be essentially unobtainable.
 

Fly2High

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In no way do I want to see the ICE go away but:

1. even with electric delivery, lithium mining and all taken into account, you still use less energy with an electric vehicle than the same summation with an ICE. Google it. It has been said several times.
2. The only reason they are investing at all in ICE is because a 10% improvement in 95% of the car sold (ICE) does far more to reducing carbon footprint than 50% improvement in 5% of car (EV). When there are enough EVs sold such that the math no longer favors putting investment into ICE, they will switch. For now, they can still make headway.
3. For long trips, use a hybrid, not an EV. Hybrids are still more efficient than an ICE. I can see a day where for local driving people will own a EV but keep or rent a hybrid to take long trips in.

I, in no way want an electric vehicle but they will come.

Not sure what will happen to oil production and retail tied to gasoline. They will be demolished if they can only sell to power plants and to homeowners for heating oil. Imagine the economic hit and the wars that will result in the Middle East. Add in that several of the heavy metals used in battery chemistry are currently some of the worst war torn places.


My big question is why haven't the car manufacturers gone the way of reducing drag and weight? Moving less mass with less drag is far better way to save fuel. Same engine uses less gas if it has to move less mass and overcome less drag. Oh, people are morons and must move huge boxes on wheels carrying largely nothing over clean roads who never go offroad. Yeah, they MUST have vehicles for the handful of days they see snow in those areas that have snow and so many people have jobs in the sun belt that must have cargo room DAILY.

NOT!!!!

IN the 80's and 90's we were moving in the right direction. more efficiency and lighter cars. What happened? I have a feeling they cannot make money reducing weight and they are holding that Ace in their back pocket as a last resort to sneak under restrictions down the road until the public demands it.

Look at the Camaro. They dropped something like 200-300 pounds and I think they have slightly better to the same efficiency as the Mustang running a bigger engine. The Mustang was and can be in the 3300 -3500 lb range. That alone will improve things.
 

shogun32

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The Mustang was and can be in the 3300 -3500 lb range. That alone will improve things.
except aluminum is expensive. Why spend money on R&D and CF/Ceramic/AL hybrid structures when you have low skill labor to punch out steel sheet in 100yr old plants? Ford can't make cars like VW (eg. R8) because they are unwilling to invest in capital plant. 100 years of increasingly bad management choices are being fully realized.

Yes my Camaro gets better MPG than the Coyote3, and on the highway it's not even close. And that's without cylinder deactivation.
 

shogun32

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what is the issue with cylinder de-activation on e.g highway driving?
in theory nothing. in practice...
GM's beat the hell out of the A8 trans and you could feel it in the cabin too.
 

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