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More bad news for the other guys

martinjlm

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There are only two factors that need to be overcome for selfies. One is the tech and the other cost. The tech like any other tech is moving at light speed. There is a very strong desire to get them on the road. The biggest factor is greed. There is so much money to be made with selling and then "renting" them. The cost to produce them is higher than a human driven car, but that is changing and it will accelerate. Just like the computer industry did, so will autonomous cars. I really think in the next 10 years they will work out the tech needed to make them safe and maybe another 10 to make them cheaper than human driven cars. There will be many already on the road by then. Our kids and their kids will be much less tied to wanting to own and drive a car and more open to letting them be driven around while fiddling on whatever a phone is at that point. Not sure what symposium you were at and who the manufacturer was, but they probably won't be a car manufacturer 20 years from now if they stay with their shortsighted views. Maybe they are talking that way as a strategy with their competitors to try to make them think they are not a player. Anyway time will tell and I do agree it will take a while.
“Selfies”, if we wanna call ‘em that, will be here, no doubt. The capability is already there. Some of them exist already. Regulations have not caught up to the technology, so getting them certified for public road use is a big impediment. But the “how to” and “how much” have already been defined, so that will be solved.

What I am saying is that “selfies” will coexist with ICE vehicles for a very long time. The symposium was sponsored by Schaeffler. Along with Bosch and Continental, one of the biggest suppliers to the auto industry. Much of the hardware that would have to go into electric vehicles will come from those three suppliers, so for one of them to say it’s gonna be a long time before EVs become a dominant product in the market is telling.

If someone passed a law today to say that all vehicles have to be self-driving and human driven cars would be banned, the industry could not get there for decades. Let’s roll the numbers. The Global automotive market is approaching 100 million new vehicles a year. The US is around 17 million of that. So let’s just look at the US. Every manufacturer who builds and or imports vehicles into the US would have to convert their manufacturing from producing human driven vehicles to producing selfies. Given that the time to bring a new vehicles program from drawing board to street is somewhere between 3 to 4 years, every manufacturer would either have to start now to develop all new selfies to completely replace their US portfolios, or stagger the development of all their programs. GM has about 10 - 11 platforms. Even if they did two a year, every year, the first ones wouldn’t hit until 2022 and they wouldn’t finish rolling them out until about 2027. All of that is a BIG IF. Somebody would have to force GM to do that. Now add For, FCA, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc to that big ball of forced transition. Suppliers would not be able to keep up with all the requirements from all the automakers, so that 3 - 4 year turnaround per architecture will stretch out to more like 5 or 6. That’s assuming all the engineering and validation happens on time for every program and every assembly plant gets converted with no hiccups or delays (looking at you GT500). Now, that’s just the 17 million new vehicles that enter the market every year. Here’s the kicker....what do you do about all the vehicles already on the road that are not self driving? They would have to be replaced by something. We’re talking 268.8 million vehicles registered in the US in 2016 (latest year for available data). It would take decades of incremental volume above the 15 - 17 million a year normal new car demand to address replacing the vehicles that are already on the road. Ten years would mean an additional 26.8 million vehicles per year. Ain’t happenin’. Twenty years would mean an additional 13.4 million. Ain’t happenin’.

Hybrids were supposed to take over the automotive landscape. Despite the fact that you can’t sneeze in LA without spraying snot on a Prius, hybrids still only amount to something less than 10% of new vehicles sold in the US every year, 21 years after the Prius first came to market.

Selfies are coming, but the spread of them will be a lot slower than the amount of press coverage they receive would have you believe.
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Ace

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"No. It's NOT "too much brand loyalty" over here. Maybe you're on the wrong site. There is nothing wrong with someone being brand loyal. At least we're here and not over on that dumbass M6G site...like they seem to love coming over here. And for the record, ever since the 18 GT came out, the Mustang guys have been the ones trying to compare it to the ZL1 and Hellcat. It in no way comes even close to either of those cars. Not by a long shot. Most of us here laugh at it. The GT is SS and SRT competition IF that and at best. You got a problem with the comparison, blame it on the GT guys who think they can bang out with us."

I guess you don't read C6G at all because you are very wrong.
Ok maybe I'm reading other topics where I don't find posts like that, lol. :crackup:
 

IronG

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“Selfies”, if we wanna call ‘em that, will be here, no doubt. The capability is already there. Some of them exist already. Regulations have not caught up to the technology, so getting them certified for public road use is a big impediment. But the “how to” and “how much” have already been defined, so that will be solved.

What I am saying is that “selfies” will coexist with ICE vehicles for a very long time. The symposium was sponsored by Schaeffler. Along with Bosch and Continental, one of the biggest suppliers to the auto industry. Much of the hardware that would have to go into electric vehicles will come from those three suppliers, so for one of them to say it’s gonna be a long time before EVs become a dominant product in the market is telling.

If someone passed a law today to say that all vehicles have to be self-driving and human driven cars would be banned, the industry could not get there for decades. Let’s roll the numbers. The Global automotive market is approaching 100 million new vehicles a year. The US is around 17 million of that. So let’s just look at the US. Every manufacturer who builds and or imports vehicles into the US would have to convert their manufacturing from producing human driven vehicles to producing selfies. Given that the time to bring a new vehicles program from drawing board to street is somewhere between 3 to 4 years, every manufacturer would either have to start now to develop all new selfies to completely replace their US portfolios, or stagger the development of all their programs. GM has about 10 - 11 platforms. Even if they did two a year, every year, the first ones wouldn’t hit until 2022 and they wouldn’t finish rolling them out until about 2027. All of that is a BIG IF. Somebody would have to force GM to do that. Now add For, FCA, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc to that big ball of forced transition. Suppliers would not be able to keep up with all the requirements from all the automakers, so that 3 - 4 year turnaround per architecture will stretch out to more like 5 or 6. That’s assuming all the engineering and validation happens on time for every program and every assembly plant gets converted with no hiccups or delays (looking at you GT500). Now, that’s just the 17 million new vehicles that enter the market every year. Here’s the kicker....what do you do about all the vehicles already on the road that are not self driving? They would have to be replaced by something. We’re talking 268.8 million vehicles registered in the US in 2016 (latest year for available data). It would take decades of incremental volume above the 15 - 17 million a year normal new car demand to address replacing the vehicles that are already on the road. Ten years would mean an additional 26.8 million vehicles per year. Ain’t happenin’. Twenty years would mean an additional 13.4 million. Ain’t happenin’.

Hybrids were supposed to take over the automotive landscape. Despite the fact that you can’t sneeze in LA without spraying snot on a Prius, hybrids still only amount to something less than 10% of new vehicles sold in the US every year, 21 years after the Prius first came to market.

Selfies are coming, but the spread of them will be a lot slower than the amount of press coverage they receive would have you believe.
I remember not too long ago that people were saying mobile phones would just be a fad....too bulky too expensive and they don't work well infrastructure will never be there etc etc. It took about 15 years for them to become mainstream and today they are in nearly everyone's pocket globally. It all has to do with money and demand. Right now most people don't really care about autonomous cars, but our children will and their children will even more. You said it yourself that the bulk of the tech is already available in many car models. Currently it is just too expensive to have it in every model, but just like anything else, once it is in every model, that is when the masses will know what it can really do. Yes, some regulations are there to be overcome, but the tech is really only 80% there. The last 20% to truly enable 100% autonomous driving is still a few years away. Once that gap is closed, the regs will come down.

Also, it is not the current car manufactures pushing it, it is the tech companies, like Google, Apple, Amazon. They all see the profit can be made far beyond what is known now. Just imagine paying your monthly car bill based on usage, not ownership. The cars themselves will be pretty much the same for every model, just a different size, shell and amenities. That will greatly bring the costs down. Yes, they will live side by side with current cars for awhile, but younger generations will not want to own a car, they will just want to rent it and have the latest and greatest every year just like iPhones.

The suppliers you mentioned won't overstep what plans are in play. They will do whatever is asked of them. If Google came to them today and said we need X, they will ramp up and make it. Not sure where any of it would take more than 10-15 years to be fully ready.

Now with all that said, I won't own/operate one unless I absolutely have to. Maybe when I am an old codger I won't mind be chauffeured around, but until then, give me a gas powered manual transmission V8 powered real car :-).
 
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bluebeastsrt

bluebeastsrt

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Sorry, but I think you are getting a anti-camaro6 fanboy yourself here. Right now there is again a topic about sales in the general discussion section.
The only thing I really don't like in the Camaro forum and that was handled here way better ist that hate on a refresh. It was the same here when the refresh was revealed, but mods saw it and decided that at a certain point no hate flaming against the new model is allowed anymore. On the other forum you still can't read any 2019 model news without a lot of people throwing in how they hate the new model.
This is not about how you like the Mustang refresh, the Camaro refresh, etc, you can dislike every car you want for sure. But the toxicity in the community is really something nobody wants since these are actually cars people will buy and love in the same community.

Also just look how many people are trolling the people here with PP2 overheating problems, because they are too much into fanboyism to acknowledge that people wanted a trackready PP2 without doing afermarket mods or spending thousands of dollars on top to their brand new car.

I think it's sad to see that it's always "us vs them", no matter which muscle car forum you read. But in the end people usally switch between cars and somewhere Mustang, Camaro and Challenger are all kind of the same kind of car.

We all need that all muscle cars doing well. Chevy went all in on performance with a high selling price and less daily-driver value - And we all should worry that less people are actually looking for that. Hands down, the 2015 GT had some real issues if you wanted to drive it like a sportscar (like the ride was too soft and the crappy Pzeros were a horrible decision, you just needed some important mods to fix the car) and without the Camaro setting the bar higher Ford would have never increased all of that for the 2018 GT. Just like Chevy engineers now have to see that you get more practical value in the next Camaro (leaked pictures on the Cadillac Coupe that likely shares a platform with the Camaro 7 show that it could get hatchback trunk for more space). Competition is key for advancement.

I love how the ZL1 1LE and ZR1 turned out, it's kind of insane that they can beat some supercars on the track but still are affordable cars. If they are pushing Ford to make the GT500 as awesome and many people here wish, we all profit from that.

If we all laugh and flame how nobody wants performance anymore and we just need good daily drivers, have in mind that future models could throw out the v8 for ecological reasons or how Ford wants to rape the Mach 1 nametag for an electric SUV with the mustang design slapped on it. I don't want a 4 door Mustang or electric vehicle with virtual V8 sounds coming out of the speakers.

On a sidenote: According to Al Oppenheiser, chef engineer of the Camaro, the V8 is doing great in terms of sales. The biggest problem for them are the four cylinder models, that's where the Mustang really shines. And I totally get that you don't care that much about performane on the lower model but actually look for more practical value.

You can think what ever you want. But I was banned from Camaro5. Because I had the audacity to say. A. The sightlines and interior. On the 2011 Camaro 2SS/RS that I owned at the time. And paid $45,000 for! Sucked!!! And B. They did not like me mentioning that the Mustangs were faster in a straight line then the SS. What's handled better here than over there. Is Camaro owners. Like yourself can come over and offer an 8 paragraph sales pitch about why "YOU" love the Camaro. I get you love the Camaro. You bought one. I just think there are more people out there like me.
That thinks changes need to be made to the Camaro. For it to be more successful! the sightlines still suck. It's to expensive. The trunk and back seat are two small. I understand none of this matters to you. But It matters to everyone else that is NOT buying! Did you type the same post on your own forum? That you posted here? And I just checked your sales thread you mentioned. They currently are attacking a 5th gen owner for his opinion. And his opinion is similiar to mine. Camaros cost to much and the design is a problem. Posts tend to get deleted on the other sight. And im sure this 5th gen owner will vanish again. But I digress. Instead of coming over to the Mustang form and trying to convince us that every thing is rosy. Why don't you guys tell Mr. Oppenheiser. Your concerned about the future of your beloved Camaro. Your 4th paragraph kind of sounded like you were trying to convince us over here on this forum. To root for the Camaro. But the Mustang will be fine reguardless of how the Camaro does. History will just repeat its self.
 
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Demonic

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I feel like I was out for a walk and wandered into the rough part of the neighborhood.
 

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activeGT

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You know, I really enjoyed my 2015 GT and that was coming from a 13 Grand Sport so quite a compliment. But then I traded on a 16 Camero 1SS and needed to go faster......so I bought a 17 ZL1.

I lost my mind somewhere and bought my 18 GT. I have to say the disappointment in the way this car handles and drives is overwhelming. I really can’t wait to unload this car and get a 19 ZL1 or possibly a Z06. Sight lines or not. Sales or not.

I don’t buy cars based on Internet forums.
 

IronG

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You know, I really enjoyed my 2015 GT and that was coming from a 13 Grand Sport so quite a compliment. But then I traded on a 16 Camero 1SS and needed to go faster......so I bought a 17 ZL1.

I lost my mind somewhere and bought my 18 GT. I have to say the disappointment in the way this car handles and drives is overwhelming. I really can’t wait to unload this car and get a 19 ZL1 or possibly a Z06. Sight lines or not. Sales or not.

I don’t buy cars based on Internet forums.
Not really fair to compare a ZL1 to a GT. Try a GT350 (R) for a real comparison. Pretty sure they are fairly equal on a track. You can wait for the GT500 which will top both of them.....or just get what you really want which seems to be a 19 ZL1....hopefully the 1LE version.
 

activeGT

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Not really fair to compare a ZL1 to a GT. Try a GT350 (R) for a real comparison. Pretty sure they are fairly equal on a track. You can wait for the GT500 which will top both of them.....or just get what you really want which seems to be a 19 ZL1....hopefully the 1LE version.
I really want the Vette but was too fat. Down 30 lbs and another 20 to go before I get near the dealership.
 
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bluebeastsrt

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You know, I really enjoyed my 2015 GT and that was coming from a 13 Grand Sport so quite a compliment. But then I traded on a 16 Camero 1SS and needed to go faster......so I bought a 17 ZL1.

I lost my mind somewhere and bought my 18 GT. I have to say the disappointment in the way this car handles and drives is overwhelming. I really can’t wait to unload this car and get a 19 ZL1 or possibly a Z06. Sight lines or not. Sales or not.

I don’t buy cars based on Internet forums.
Good luck with the weight loss.
 

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activeGT

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EcoVert

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You know, I really enjoyed my 2015 GT and that was coming from a 13 Grand Sport so quite a compliment. But then I traded on a 16 Camero 1SS and needed to go faster......so I bought a 17 ZL1.

I lost my mind somewhere and bought my 18 GT. I have to say the disappointment in the way this car handles and drives is overwhelming. I really can’t wait to unload this car and get a 19 ZL1 or possibly a Z06. Sight lines or not. Sales or not.

I don’t buy cars based on Internet forums.
Don't waist time quit m6g now and joint c6g quick, hurry, don't wait :fingerscrossed:
 

IronG

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I really want the Vette but was too fat. Down 30 lbs and another 20 to go before I get near the dealership.
Just put the pic of vette everywhere there is food in the house. I heard saltine crackers and water is tasty! :shock:
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