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I hope not - Autoweek: next generation is last ICE Mustang

ice445

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We have been told for decades that there is just a finite amount of fossil fuels in our ground. And once it' s gone and gone for good. So yes, of course, people believe it.

But, that's no longer really the issue. As you mentioned new technology has found more reserves of fossil fuels. The issue today is getting the oil companies around the world to spend the billions of dollars to find, extract and refine those reserves. With the continuing push for electric powered vehicles it seems unlikely that they will be willing to take that risk.
Doesn't actually matter how much oil exists, there's a simple equation you have to follow. If it costs a barrel of oil to extract one, you're done. And economically it gets really challenging well before that. In the beginning it was like 20:1 in favor, now its already way lowet than that. I mean I guess you can hope some fancy technology comes around that makes complex extraction easy, but oil reserves in the middle of nowhere already have a severe logistical penalty when it comes to extraction.
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Ogopogo

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There is no lack of oil in the ground to be produced. On average, all the world's oil companies find new reserves to replace those produced, i.e. the reserve replacement ratio exceeds 100%. It is just there are no economics in finding and developing new reserves too far in advance of them being able to be sold for cash. It is simple Econ 101. I was in that business for over 25 years.

The bigger issue is what burning fossil fuels does to increase GHG in the atmosphere and thus climate change. Yes, it is real despite the deniers. We all need to transition off fossil fuels for land use vehicles to mitigate the effects and that is what will happen over the next 2-3 decades.

The electrical grid will keep up over time. There may be capacity issues from time to time but all the major system operators have been spending a lot of money on studies to figure out how to do it, how to level loads such as time of day pricing so that most EVs charge over night when demand is way down anyway. I think there will also be a breakthrough in energy storage at the substation level. There are a number of them using existing technology already in place to test how they work. The assertions about how the grid can't handle it have not really done their homework to see what is underway to mitigate all those issues. Transitions are always messy. I have no doubt viable solutions will appear.
 

Firsttexan

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I know I am in the minority here, but I really think EVs are going to win out not because of regulations, but because they will simply be better - quieter, smoother, faster, simpler, more reliable, more efficient efficient, and (eventually) lower total cost of ownership. I know battery and charger tech is not quite there yet, but it is getting better every day.
You are likely correct.

Less moving parts too.
 

ice445

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I agree with your overall statement but the grid can't handle shit right now. Whether it's a hard core freeze or a typical hot Texas summer. Our grid cannot handle it. They can't even keep up with demand and maintenance much less improving it.



The transition to EV needs to be slow and market driven. IMO
I feel like this is a non argument though. If the grid sucks, we need to do better regardless. If EV's are the push for utility companies to get off their ass and make improvements, then great. American infrastructure has languished for so long were all conditioned to think that's how it has to be and always will be.
 

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People say that the EV cars are for gen Z. But I thought gen Z people don't like owning a house. EV and apartment are incompatible. So really EV is for the older generations that want a house and a garage. Not for people who keep their cars outside, either. Not as good as ICE for long trips. Best as a third car. Only for people with a garage and a house and the extra coin to get the rewiring done as necessary and the extra money to have a spare car for longer trips. Basically EVs are for the rich.
So as a millennial, I can tell you most people I know like the idea of a EV. I would think the younger gen z also follows the same mindset.

Really
There's no reason why it can't continue for hundreds of years.



Every year since oil was originally discovered the known reserves have INCREASED. Our knowledge of where and how to get oil has outpaced our usage of oil. So we really don't even know how much longer. Certainly hundreds of years.



It depends on how you use them. Hard acceleration and fast DC charges will damage batteries over time. And currently the cost to replace the batteries is such that most people won't want to buy a used EV with 100,000 miles. So, the EV may only be used a few years and then thrown away. Great for manufacturers, tough for people without a lot of extra money to buy new cars.



When someone comes up with another technology that most people prefer would be the best time. As EVs get better and better, at some point people will want to buy them. And then at some later point if they continue to improve, almost everyone will want them. Then ICE vehicles would die a natural death.

People say that the EV cars are for gen Z. But I thought gen Z people don't like owning a house. EV and apartment are incompatible. So really EV is for the older generations that want a house and a garage. Not for people who keep their cars outside, either. Not as good as ICE for long trips. Best as a third car. Only for people with a garage and a house and the extra coin to get the rewiring done as necessary and the extra money to have a spare car for longer trips. Basically EVs are for the rich.
Far points.

I do however believe the whole gen z thing is completely overblown. They will end up buying cars like the rest of us. Until there is a system put in place where they can taxi around. If you think most young people would rather have a V8 mustang or a Tesla you are just kidding yourself. Pretty clear young people care more about the environment and having the latest technology. Even if electric cars are worse for the environment, they are not perceived that way to them.
 

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ay1820

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I do however believe the whole gen z thing is completely overblown. They will end up buying cars like the rest of us. Until there is a system put in place where they can taxi around. If you think most young people would rather have a V8 mustang or a Tesla you are just kidding yourself.
As I said earlier, I do believe that EVs have a lot to offer and if/when the problems are solved, they are likely to win out. What I do not understand is why so many millennials/gen z'ers are such big Tesla fans (and I know several who are), especially since Elon Musk is such an arrogant blowhard that regularly speaks out against many of the causes younger people are so passionate about. Tesla may have been at the forefront, but there are much better options out there now that don't require your to pay homage to the cult of Musk.

Pretty clear young people care more about the environment and having the latest technology. Even if electric cars are worse for the environment, they are not perceived that way to them.
You are spot on with that observation.
 

Mspider

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As I said earlier, I do believe that EVs have a lot to offer and if/when the problems are solved, they are likely to win out. What I do not understand is why so many millennials/gen z'ers are such big Tesla fans (and I know several who are), especially since Elon Musk is such an arrogant blowhard that regularly speaks out against many of the causes younger people are so passionate about. Tesla may have been at the forefront, but there are much better options out there now that don't require your to pay homage to the cult of Musk.

You are spot on with that observation.
As a born in the 1990s millennial. Tesla is seen as something cool and better technology than traditional automakers. Young people love going against the old ways of the past. They love seeing Elon go on Twitter talking about crypto and going to the moon.

For me I see right through all that BS and cannot stand the Tesla cult. But I do recognize the need to develop new technologies. Its important for us to recognize that the Tesla model 3 was one of the best selling luxury sedan in the entire world. So there is something to this electric car game we shouldn`t ignore.

Believe me I love gas cars and there is a reason why I drive a manual trans V8 mustang. But I can`t sit here and try to fight worldwide governments initiative to move to electric. On top of that a lot of people are open to owning electric cars. I remember when I custom ordered my 2022 mustang my sales guy told me the electric mustang gets a crazy amount of orders. I guess I just have this internal battle with trying to be forward thinking but also enjoying gas cars.
 

BombZombie

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So as a millennial, I can tell you most people I know like the idea of a EV. I would think the younger gen z also follows the same mindset.

I do however believe the whole gen z thing is completely overblown. They will end up buying cars like the rest of us. Until there is a system put in place where they can taxi around. If you think most young people would rather have a V8 mustang or a Tesla you are just kidding yourself. Pretty clear young people care more about the environment and having the latest technology. Even if electric cars are worse for the environment, they are not perceived that way to them.
I second this, especially the idea of not caring if EVs are actually Green or not. It's perceived that way, and that's how it will approached.

A few threads on here have posters stating they're older and will no longer purchase new cars...well, you're not the market. The younger generations are, and they'll dictate it over time.
 

BombZombie

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Believe me I love gas cars and there is a reason why I drive a manual trans V8 mustang. But I can`t sit here and try to fight worldwide governments initiative to move to electric. On top of that a lot of people are open to owning electric cars. I remember when I custom ordered my 2022 mustang my sales guy told me the electric mustang gets a crazy amount of orders. I guess I just have this internal battle with trying to be forward thinking but also enjoying gas cars.
Once I redo my main garage...I'll order a Mach-E 🤙I think they're cool and I'll give the drivers of them a thumbs up when I pull up next to them.
 

ay1820

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As a born in the 1990s millennial. Tesla is seen as something cool and better technology than traditional automakers. Young people love going against the old ways of the past. They love seeing Elon go on Twitter talking about crypto and going to the moon.
I think you’re hitting on something here. EVs and all the tech bundled into them hits that cool factor. And just like pony/muscle cars appealed to boomers back in the day because they were so different than dad’s 4 door Buick, EVs appeal to younger generations because they are new and unique (and the fact that a lot of change resistant boomers hate them is a plus too). Then of course you also have older folks with disposable income trying to act young getting into the mix too.

The engineer in me still thinks that EVs have a lot of potential to be just better for certain applications, but this feels like a bit of the “X” factor that is boosting much the current EV demand. Couple that with their relative scarcity and you can start to see what’s driving the market.
 

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Hack

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So as a millennial, I can tell you most people I know like the idea of a EV. I would think the younger gen z also follows the same mindset.

Really


Far points.

I do however believe the whole gen z thing is completely overblown. They will end up buying cars like the rest of us. Until there is a system put in place where they can taxi around. If you think most young people would rather have a V8 mustang or a Tesla you are just kidding yourself. Pretty clear young people care more about the environment and having the latest technology. Even if electric cars are worse for the environment, they are not perceived that way to them.
It makes sense to me that some young people will like EVs. It's just tough to recharge when you don't have a house. Maybe a lot of young people will start buying houses so they can have an EV, but I think a lot of younger people would rather take it easy and own fewer things. Work less buy less live more is a smart and cool philosophy that many young people embrace.

It's easy to own a newer phone, but new cars are expensive, especially EVs are expensive. No car at all is better for the environment than either EV or ICE.

As I said earlier, I do believe that EVs have a lot to offer and if/when the problems are solved, they are likely to win out. What I do not understand is why so many millennials/gen z'ers are such big Tesla fans (and I know several who are), especially since Elon Musk is such an arrogant blowhard that regularly speaks out against many of the causes younger people are so passionate about. Tesla may have been at the forefront, but there are much better options out there now that don't require your to pay homage to the cult of Musk.

You are spot on with that observation.
I think Musk is great. He's definitely both smarter and harder working than 99% of people out there. We need more people who are willing to work really hard and build cool stuff. Our society has benefitted greatly from Musk's work. I don't think electric cars are that good yet, but if I bought one I would much rather buy a Tesla than buy from one of the big automakers with the local dealers.

I like it when there are new companies that can start up and be successful. It is really hard because the big companies always work the system to build in barriers to entry. They try really hard to stifle and kill any competition so they can continue building their boring old crap. It would be really terrible if Ford actually had to work hard and build better vehicles, right?

I second this, especially the idea of not caring if EVs are actually Green or not. It's perceived that way, and that's how it will approached.

A few threads on here have posters stating they're older and will no longer purchase new cars...well, you're not the market. The younger generations are, and they'll dictate it over time.
Have you seen the buyer statistics for our cars? The average Mustang buyer is mid 50s. The market is EXACTLY people who could choose to hang onto their current car for the rest of their life if they hate the new offerings. And ICE cars can be kept running a really long time with maintenance and parts replacement. 40-50 years is not a big deal for an ICE vehicle. Especially if it's owned by a retired person that drives a couple thousand miles a year. Dealers LOVE to get a cream puff trade like a Mustang with very few miles and treated gently by an older driver. But why would I trade if I prefer the car I have over a new one?

I drove 80s Mustangs until 2011 when I decided I liked the Coyote. I never liked the 4.6. So I had 80s Mustangs with engine swaps, aftermarket transmissions, upgraded suspension, etc. I'm not going to buy something I don't want just because it's newer.

Most young people buy used, not new. And if they buy new they buy cheaper vehicles. EVs currently cost more than ICEs. A lot more. I could see there being some younger buyers on the coast where people make a lot of money, but houses are really expensive on the coasts. I think hybrids are much more practical for the aspiring young greenie.
 

Cory S

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Until this country builds around 200 more nuclear power plants, EV’s won’t even reach 20% of the vehicles on the road for at least 20 YEARS………..
ICE and EV will co-exist for a minimum of 30 years from now.

Hybrid should be the future. Not 100% EV…..
 

KeyLime

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EV, hybrid, ICE. Let's just take this to the extreme.

In 2021 there were 43,000 automotive deaths in the US. You all know autonomous cars are coming. The technology will be available at some point in time. Eventually the technology will get to the level where it proves safer than human drivers. I'll bet there will be a mandate to make all new cars autonomous.

Whatcha gonna do then?
 

ay1820

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EV, hybrid, ICE. Let's just take this to the extreme.

In 2021 there were 43,000 automotive deaths in the US. You all know autonomous cars are coming. The technology will be available at some point in time. Eventually the technology will get to the level where it proves safer than human drivers. I'll bet there will be a mandate to make all new cars autonomous.

Whatcha gonna do then?
Despite the hype, I really don't see that happening any time soon. The tech may get a close in the foreseeable future, but it will not be flawless, not at first. When injury and deaths do happen, the litigation will be ferocious.

So far, Tesla has dodged all responsibility for its autopilot mode by making it clear that the driver still needs to be in control. If we are to go truly autonomous, that won't fly anymore, and now the manufacturers will be on the hook for everything from dents to death. I am not sure there are any car manufactures who will be willing to take that kind of liability risk.
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