Longitude Zero
Well-Known Member
Drive them like you stole them.
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what do you mean, wait? It already is. Apple turned all their services OFF this morning to save the planet a tremendous amount of power and triple American productivity. I noticed my McDonalds order was done in half the time and it was actually still hot when they handed it to me. And I could even understand the drive-thru girl.Just wait until Apple juice is the new fuel replacement... just you wait...
not my problem at that pointExcellent. And then what do we do for the next 7 to 8 billion years until the sun explodes and incinerates all of humanity?
Politics has nothing to do with it IMHO, itās all about numbers. We are currently at roughly 8% renewable power nationwide. That has taken 15 years or so, and (at least in my area) windmills and solar have been built at a pretty rapid rate. I have engineer friends that work in the power industry, some heavily involved in solar and wind integration. They told me with current technology you need enough solar panels to cover the state of Nebraska just to match our current needs. If you also want to use this energy to fill storage devices for off service hours you need to double that. Wind is a similar deal, need 1.3 million windmills or 2.6 million if filling storage devices. And the real kicker is that many base load coal power stations are scheduled to be shutdown in the next 5 years, while other sources are not being built fast enough to make up for the lost energy.No offense intended, but your politics may be getting in the way of the facts. (Despite where I live, I am firmly moderate on the political spectrum.) Solar is now the cheapest form of energy production. Solar combined with energy storage facilities like the real options I mentioned can work as baseload. Solar + wind + wave + hydro + geothermal + nuclear + storage is totally viable. You can then still use natural gas for surge demand.
https://www.popsci.com/story/environment/cheap-renewable-energy-vs-fossil-fuels/
Iām a proponent of buy the vehicle you want not the one some govāt bureaucrat tells you have to have. That is a foundational principal of communism and has been quite a failure since the end of WWII. With that being said, your statistics above are not exactly accurate in the big picture. The average vehicle on the road today (2022) is over 11 YO, mainly because of better corrosion protection and better overall quality from most of the brands that are sold here. Industry estimates are putting a much longer cycle on them. If you take COVID out of the mix in the last 20 months, there averages close to 17M new vehicles sold annually in NA. The disposal rate does not match that number, so the total car park continues to increase annually. Drive in any major city at 7am and you get the real vibe.The US vehicle "fleet" replacement rate is 7% which equates to replacing effectively all the vehicles every 15 years. (Yes, there's always a long tail.) You could absolutely see EVs be the majority of new-car sales in 10 years or less and the majority of cars on the road in 20 years or less.
now thatās funny, but sadly probably true about people actually having to do their job !what do you mean, wait? It already is. Apple turned all their services OFF this morning to save the planet a tremendous amount of power and triple American productivity. I noticed my McDonalds order was done in half the time and it was actually still hot when they handed it to me. And I could even understand the drive-thru girl.
Iāll assume your math includes āeveryoneā who replaces their car/truck, does so with electric. If not your math doesnāt work.The US vehicle "fleet" replacement rate is 7% which equates to replacing effectively all the vehicles every 15 years. (Yes, there's always a long tail.) You could absolutely see EVs be the majority of new-car sales in 10 years or less and the majority of cars on the road in 20 years or less.
Then there were the horse & buggy whip guys 110 years ago....they were confident too.I wouldnāt bet on it. Thereās that old saying. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
back then they hadn't invented NIMBY, OSHA, EPA yet, or for that matter stupidity. Ignorance, yes but stupidity is an invention of modern man and arises from mis-education.Then there were the horse & buggy whip guys 110 years ago....they were confident too.
Not everyone... here's a scenario that gets to 50% of the fleet being EV in 20 years.Iāll assume your math includes āeveryoneā who replaces their car/truck, does so with electric. If not your math doesnāt work.
To be kind, they might be wrong.I have engineer friends that work in the power industry, some heavily involved in solar and wind integration. They told me with current technology you need enough solar panels to cover the state of Nebraska just to match our current needs.
If you want to adopt me,OK so I have a unique perspective on this.....
1. Because I just sold my original 67 GT500 a year or two ago (that and my 428CJ powered 56 Ford Victoria)
Special cars have cycles- popular when new then again when people age and want to relive their youth- 50s car used to be all the rage but when I went to sell my 56 Victoria (had a 4 page spread in Street Rodder magazine- so this car was done right) I didnt get a call from anyone under 80 years old it felt like
Or now that one generation is older- they want to buy the car they always dreamed of having as a kid
Same thing with Fox Body prices today- people my age want to relive their youth and are buying fox bodies (I did the same and bought a low mileage 5 speed LX car but sold after a year because it wasnt as great as I remembered lol)
I also drove a 19GT PP1 for a few years-
So this is my OPINION
1. My GT350R feels just as special as my 67 GT500 did when I drive it around (I attribute that to the Voodoo- and I can go into more detail if anyone cares- my daughters like the GT350R more)
2. My GT350R feels more special than my GT did (not that my GT didnt feel special- I loved that car too and loved driving it )
3. Life is short- enjoy your cars - 3 years ago I went in for a normal check up- no symptoms- just regular visit and a week later was diagnosed with incurable bone marrow cancer and about 15-20 ish years to live (I was 44 years old when diagnosed)
I am one of the few lucky but unlucky ones to know potentially when I will die and how - unlucky because Ill die relatively young- but lucky because it has helped me to change my priorities and enjoy life - drive my cars- spend less time working and more time with family and friends- slow down once in a while
I can honestly say I dont really care what my car will be worth 25 years from now because I probably wont be here- but nothing can take back all the memories I am making driving it
With the prices of EV's now, I can't see the sales number as high as you predict.Not everyone... here's a scenario that gets to 50% of the fleet being EV in 20 years.
sure, except column 2 should have a MUCH shallower growth rate.here's a scenario that gets to 50% of the fleet being EV in 20 years
musk is not an engineer. He's pontificating blowhard angling for political points or upvotes. He STILL can't make money building cars. That said, his efforts do serve a purpose much like Howard Hughes. Mankind needs slightly crazy mavericks to do things more sane men wisely know is a colossal waste of time and effort when measured on a rational return basis.Musk in 2017:
My numbers align with industry forecasts (30% by 2030).sure, except column 2 should have a MUCH shallower growth rate.