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Dave Pericak speaks a bit about the Mustang's future

BmacIL

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Please show me an example where one of the currently accepted climate models, when applied to historical data, accurately predicts temperatures. If there is a model that can be applied starting from 1920 or so and it predicts the global temperatures for the last ~100 years where we have data - I would love to see it.

All I have seen are extreme predictions that the world is ending and those predictions have never, ever come true. Please explain to me why you think the process is working when past predictions have never come true?

It seems like you have blind faith with no factual evidence. I am skeptical because I have been paying attention to past predictions.
The correlation between industrialization, population growth and temperature rise is so tight that arguing against the truth of man-made climate change is ignorant and stupid. Now, the real question is what to do once we've recognized that it's real. I don't necessarily believe that vehicle carbon emissions is the thing we should be focused on. I work in this industry. It's not the primary source and customer expectations will drive to lower fuel consumption naturally. Putting pressure on India and China (where most of it's coming from) is where our focus should be abroad, and at home, the sources of our electricity and our agricultural industry should be our focus. Sadly, we are probably too far gone to make the big dents. The only viable (magnitude and consistency of output), carbon free electric source is nuclear, and despite decades of advancements in output, material recycling and waste reduction, no politician will champion it. Caving to political pressure over facts is our downfall.
 

BmacIL

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There maybe are blackholes but no real evidence has come forward and a grainy smudged picture proves nothing. For years scientist had the brontosaurus head on its tail before they found and in tacked skeleton. But in this day and times unfortunately the above statement is very true.
Your ignorance is showing. Just because you can't take a picture of something doesn't mean it doesn't exist. By definition, a black hole is an object with gravity so intense that light cannot escape its event horizon. Thus, you won't "see" one unless it has an active and significant accretion disc. We've had hard evidence since the late 90s that black holes do exist, and the best evidence is the massive one at the center of our milky way galaxy.
 

Hack

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The correlation between industrialization, population growth and temperature rise is so tight that arguing against the truth of man-made climate change is ignorant and stupid.
I have not called you any names and yet you repeatedly do it to me. Why do you think it's ok? I disagree with your first statement. When temperatures were going down in the 70s and the scientific community was predicting an ice age coming soon, was the temperature falling also caused by industrialization and population growth? Or did it briefly have an inverse impact? Do you see how someone might become skeptical if they consider this information?

Or - as I think is more likely - the climate models don't include all the relevant variables. For example, since solar output isn't sexy and we can't impact it - everyone completely ignores it. But I have a hard time believing there's no impact on global temperatures.

I live on the outskirts of town and temperatures at my house are regularly more than 10 degrees cooler than in the middle of town. Yet the official temperatures are in town. Does this have an impact on official recorded temperatures and comparisons to the past? Cities are small compared to the entire globe, but yet we measure temperatures in the middle of those heat islands.

Now, the real question is what to do once we've recognized that it's real. I don't necessarily believe that vehicle carbon emissions is the thing we should be focused on. I work in this industry. It's not the primary source and customer expectations will drive to lower fuel consumption naturally. Putting pressure on India and China (where most of it's coming from) is where our focus should be abroad, and at home, the sources of our electricity and our agricultural industry should be our focus. Sadly, we are probably too far gone to make the big dents. The only viable (magnitude and consistency of output), carbon free electric source is nuclear, and despite decades of advancements in output, material recycling and waste reduction, no politician will champion it. Caving to political pressure over facts is our downfall.
I can't disagree with anything you've said here. This part of your post seems logical and well thought out to me.
 

Bikeman315

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Honestly I feel sorry for all of us. We live in a world where everyone is perceived to have an agenda, either financially or politically based. There is no truth, no one we can believe in. I grew up in a far less than perfect world. That said we turned on the evening news and believed every word out of Uncle Walt’s mouth. We had some politicians who actually worked with each other regardless of their party. We aspired to become millionaires because that was part of the American dream. What I hate more than anything is our loss of civility. Not it’s not alright to call people names just because you do not agree with them. Be it an Internet forum or any other form of social media we have lost the ability to be civil with one another. You do not need to like what I (or anyone else) has to say or agree with it. But at least let the other person have their say without denigrating them. Is that really too much to ask. Sorry, been a tough morning, rant over. :frown:
 

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Honestly I feel sorry for all of us. We live in a world where everyone is perceived to have an agenda, either financially or politically based. There is no truth, no one we can believe in. I grew up in a far less than perfect world. That said we turned on the evening news and believed every word out of Uncle Walt’s mouth. We had some politicians who actually worked with each other regardless of their party. We aspired to become millionaires because that was part of the American dream. What I hate more than anything is our loss of civility. Not it’s not alright to call people names just because you do not agree with them. Be it an Internet forum or any other form of social media we have lost the ability to be civil with one another. You do not need to like what I (or anyone else) has to say or agree with it. But at least let the other person have their say without denigrating them. Is that really too much to ask. Sorry, been a tough morning, rant over. :frown:
You and I disagree on much, but I am with you 100% on this. The loss of civility, IMHO, has been caused to a large degree by the impersonal nature of discussions created by the anonymity of the internet. No surprise there. We tend not to "name call" and insult face-to-face. I don't think that is because people are "braver" in online discussions so much as people are detached from the fact they are talking to another human being. Empathy is lost in this medium. It will get worse and worse as the people have a decreasing level of personal contact.

The other thing is that so many discussions veer off into politics--even though they may seemingly begin far from it--because "everything" has become politicized since government has stepped into so many aspects of daily life. How many laws/regulations do we each break every day? Each of those laws were created by politics. You may think you are in compliance, but how do you know? You may have brought your lobster home in the wrong kind of bag.
 

zackmd1

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For example, since solar output isn't sexy and we can't impact it - everyone completely ignores it. But I have a hard time believing there's no impact on global temperatures.
https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/

"No. The Sun can influence the Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity."

Honestly I feel sorry for all of us. We live in a world where everyone is perceived to have an agenda, either financially or politically based. There is no truth, no one we can believe in.
Unfortunately this happens when the idea is planted that everything is a conspiracy and FAKE NEWS... I have an issue when people routinely reference blog sites and other non-accredited and clearly heavily bias news sources... Just because mainstream news sources are not reporting what you WANT to believe, does not make it untrue and a conspiracy....Yes there is bias and yes they might overstate certain fact but SIGNIFICANTLY less than what you will find on these blog sites. Just because you agree with the information does not make it unbiased and true.
 

martinjlm

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https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/

"No. The Sun can influence the Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity."



Unfortunately this happens when the idea is planted that everything is a conspiracy and FAKE NEWS... I have an issue when people routinely reference blog sites and other non-accredited and clearly heavily bias news sources... Just because mainstream news sources are not reporting what you WANT to believe, does not make it untrue and a conspiracy....Yes there is bias and yes they might overstate certain fact but SIGNIFICANTLY less than what you will find on these blog sites. Just because you agree with the information does not make it unbiased and true.
To bring it back to Mustang related issues :wink: it’s like on other threads here where certain people (R. Pobst, Speed Phenom) are villified and skewered, until they say something that the villifiers agree with (my GT500 ran 10.7... GT500 with fresh tires would beat ZLE on a track). Then their word becomes the new Gospel. At least until the next time they do or say something not in line with the group think. Or maybe it’s just that that was the one and only time they “got it right”.
 

Hack

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https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/14/is-the-sun-causing-global-warming/

"No. The Sun can influence the Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. We know subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. But the warming we’ve seen over the last few decades is too rapid to be linked to changes in Earth’s orbit, and too large to be caused by solar activity."



Unfortunately this happens when the idea is planted that everything is a conspiracy and FAKE NEWS... I have an issue when people routinely reference blog sites and other non-accredited and clearly heavily bias news sources... Just because mainstream news sources are not reporting what you WANT to believe, does not make it untrue and a conspiracy....Yes there is bias and yes they might overstate certain fact but SIGNIFICANTLY less than what you will find on these blog sites. Just because you agree with the information does not make it unbiased and true.
I don't think NASA is the most credible source of climate information. There have been many problems with their data in the past.

Maybe the biggest problem for me is that the people who are telling us we need to do things are telling us to do things that don't make sense. Like @BmacIL said earlier, the automobile isn't the most significant source of the problem. But yet we have to have all these crazy laws that restrict our freedom with respect to the automobile. If the goal was to burn less gas, the laws would be pushing for smaller and lighter vehicles. But somehow SUVs and pickups get an exemption? In this environment of trying to save energy - car companies are going to stop building cars? Hmmm. And I'm supposed to go along with this and somehow believe it makes sense?

Another problem is a history of lies. The ice caps at the poles were supposed to be melted by now. But they aren't. So which information is true and which is not? Remember when ethanol became required to be in gasoline because it was supposed to be better for the environment? And now recently it was admitted that ethanol absolutely doesn't help the environment. But ADM and quite a few politicians got rich.

So - if all the actions that are recommended make sense and the predictions start to make sense and come true - THEN I will believe. I don't trust ANY web site that pushes an agenda when the recommendations aren't sensible or logical.

I absolutely will not take this on FAITH like many seem to do.
 

zackmd1

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I don't think NASA is the most credible source of climate information. There have been many problems with their data in the past.

Maybe the biggest problem for me is that the people who are telling us we need to do things are telling us to do things that don't make sense. Like @BmacIL said earlier, the automobile isn't the most significant source of the problem. But yet we have to have all these crazy laws that restrict our freedom with respect to the automobile. If the goal was to burn less gas, the laws would be pushing for smaller and lighter vehicles. But somehow SUVs and pickups get an exemption? In this environment of trying to save energy - car companies are going to stop building cars? Hmmm. And I'm supposed to go along with this and somehow believe it makes sense?

Another problem is a history of lies. The ice caps at the poles were supposed to be melted by now. But they aren't. So which information is true and which is not? Remember when ethanol became required to be in gasoline because it was supposed to be better for the environment? And now recently it was admitted that ethanol absolutely doesn't help the environment. But ADM and quite a few politicians got rich.

So - if all the actions that are recommended make sense and the predictions start to make sense and come true - THEN I will believe. I don't trust ANY web site that pushes an agenda when the recommendations aren't sensible or logical.

I absolutely will not take this on FAITH like many seem to do.

Unfortunately this happens when the idea is planted that everything is a conspiracy and FAKE NEWS... I have an issue when people routinely reference blog sites and other non-accredited and clearly heavily bias news sources... Just because mainstream news sources are not reporting what you WANT to believe, does not make it untrue and a conspiracy....Yes there is bias and yes they might overstate certain fact but SIGNIFICANTLY less than what you will find on these blog sites. Just because you agree with the information does not make it unbiased and true.

.... I think NASA is pretty reliable source for solar output and orbital mechanics.....

Provide us a source that justifies your opinion on both NASA and your climate change views. And no it cannot be a blog site. I am fine with having different opinions, but you HAVE to at least have a credible source or knowledgeable background on the subject...

Seems to me like you are confusing science with policies. Yes, proposed policies on climate change rarely address the issue or make sense due to the politicians writing them having personal interests and a general lack of understanding of the issue. That does not make the background scientific data and analysis stating that it exists invalid...
 
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Hack

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.... I think NASA is pretty reliable source for solar output and orbital mechanics.....

Provide us a source that justifies your opinion on both NASA and your climate change views. And no it cannot be a blog site. I am fine with having different opinions, but you HAVE to at least have a credible source or knowledgeable background on the subject...

Seems to me like you are confusing science with policies. Yes, proposed policies on climate change rarely address the issue or make sense due to the politicians writing them having personal interests and a general lack of understanding of the issue. That does not make the background scientific data and analysis stating that it exists invalid...
Great points.

NASA is a government run organization. I trust them for information that doesn't affect any government agendas. Does that make sense to you?

I think that blog sites are the best source for unbiased information where people are not getting paid to have a certain opinion.

I want to get off this topic. My bottom line is that I think there might be some slight warming, but there is no imminent doomsday. Yes the temperature might go up a few degrees in the next few hundred years. But there is no short-term ecological disaster that will destroy everyone if we just continue as we are currently operating.

And our activity isn't going to "save" us/the earth in short order either. If I had my way there would be funding for work on this, but no regulations requiring certain fuel economy - at least not beyond what we already have. I would back it off a little. I do think particulate emissions are bad and I would want to reduce them, though.

Anyway - I'm hoping for common sense laws and a GREAT FUTURE MUSTANG.
 

Bikeman315

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I think we are all having Mid-Winter malaise. The GT500 is out, there has been no real news on 2021 and half of our Northern members cars are in hibernation. I can't wait until Spring!!!!
 

MaskedRacerX

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Clearly, there are people whose perspective on the climate comes down to this: Climate Change = Al Gore = Profits = Lefties = Bunk.

I have a long time friend, incredibly bright guy, a truly unique intellect, got involved in machine learning decades ago, founded several consortiums for open source ML library development. He eventually wound up doing support for all sorts of global projects, using super computer cycles and ML for cancer research, DNA mapping, and also plenty of earth sciences like climatology. When I was still on Facebook (been gone for ~3 years), I would occasionally bump into an old acquaintance whose perspective on "global warming", was purely political, his support for his view, was always a narrative of some kind of global left wing cabal, altering studies, interfering with peer reviews to push their agenda (what that agenda was, he could never say ...).

I invited my aforementioned friend into a debate one time, where the latter guy was asking all sorts of questions, I knew the research/ML guy had some perspective on - while he's not a climatologist, in working with plenty of PhDs in earth related sciences (spent years in Europe with some of the brightest people in the field), he got to have a decent understanding of the subject matter (like I've picked up some understanding of clinical trials and law enforcement processes as a developer of such systems). Anyway, he divulged what he could, was unbelievably cordial, attempted to explain things, and my acquaintance? Nope, wasn't having any of it - always a mix of you can't prove that, it's been tampered, that's based on fake news, clearly the data is a results of political agenda and not objective measurements and reviews.

Anyway, I think this a __bad__ topic for anything other than the designated PRSI area (which is why I steer WAY away from there ... :crazy:)
 

zackmd1

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Clearly, there are people whose perspective on the climate comes down to this: Climate Change = Al Gore = Profits = Lefties = Bunk.

I have a long time friend, incredibly bright guy, a truly unique intellect, got involved in machine learning decades ago, founded several consortiums for open source ML library development. He eventually wound up doing support for all sorts of global projects, using super computer cycles and ML for cancer research, DNA mapping, and also plenty of earth sciences like climatology. When I was still on Facebook (been gone for ~3 years), I would occasionally bump into an old acquaintance whose perspective on "global warming", was purely political, his support for his view, was always a narrative of some kind of global left wing cabal, altering studies, interfering with peer reviews to push their agenda (what that agenda was, he could never say ...).

I invited my aforementioned friend into a debate one time, where the latter guy was asking all sorts of questions, I knew the research/ML guy had some perspective on - while he's not a climatologist, in working with plenty of PhDs in earth related sciences (spent years in Europe with some of the brightest people in the field), he got to have a decent understanding of the subject matter (like I've picked up some understanding of clinical trials and law enforcement processes as a developer of such systems). Anyway, he divulged what he could, was unbelievably cordial, attempted to explain things, and my acquaintance? Nope, wasn't having any of it - always a mix of you can't prove that, it's been tampered, that's based on fake news, clearly the data is a results of political agenda and not objective measurements and reviews.

Anyway, I think this a __bad__ topic for anything other than the designated PRSI area (which is why I steer WAY away from there ... :crazy:)

I agree, the problem is we cannot talk about the future of the mustang without also touching on the subject of climate change and how the mustang will evolve to meet new and upcoming regulations...
 

martinjlm

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I agree, the problem is we cannot talk about the future of the mustang without also touching on the subject of climate change and how the mustang will evolve to meet new and upcoming regulations...
It’s one thing to “touch on” the topic of climate change. A completely different thing to become hyper-committed to the proof of its existence or lack there of. Reminds me of a joke I heard that bears real truth.

Trying to explain to his students the difference between being involved in a cause and being committed to the cause, the teacher asks a student “what did you have for breakfast this morning?”

The student responds “bacon and eggs”.

The teacher says “the chicken was involved. The pig was committed”.

We’re frying a lot of bacon in this thread when we should be scrambling eggs.
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