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07S281E

07S281E

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I think you will find that the price of gas will increase quite a bit as EV vehicles are being pushed into the market to help people make the decision to switch.
All these cars are going to need battery replacement at some point. The energy that they will need is not currently being generated. Not everyone is going to blindly believe the government and buy an electric vehicle.
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sk47

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All these cars are going to need battery replacement at some point. The energy that they will need is not currently being generated. Not everyone is going to blindly believe the government and buy an electric vehicle.
Hello; One scenario is an EV becomes much like any other electric appliance. That being they are a single use in terms of the battery packs. From what i read so far, the batteries can last around 10 years before losing enough charge percentage to be too limited. If i have this correct every battery pack normally loses the capacity to charge fully even when normal and in good shape. A percent or so per year maybe. Even if the percent is less the outcome is the same over time. At some point the battery pack will only charge up to 80%, then 70% then 60% and so on.
Say it takes 15 years and the chassis has 200,000 miles on it. As things stand an owner has to pay many thousands to get a replacement battery. Even if grandma hardly drives and only has 35,000 miles' on a ten years old EV the battery will still have lost capacity is the way i read it.

An opportune time to learn is upon us if we can get sound data. There are a number of early pure EV's hitting the ten year mark and more currently. How these fare will be a clue about the rest of the EV's. Should be some way to get at the data. I hope the data is not kept from us.

Right now buying an EV is , in my mind, a use it till the batteries go bad then junk it sort of proposition. I cannot see spending perhaps tens of thousands to replace an EV battery on an eight- to ten-year-old EV vehicle.

Side note- the hybrids are not so subject to battery degradation as the pure EV's is my understanding so far. This seems to be because of the way the battery is charged and discharged. They do not charge up to 100% and do not discharge to very low percentages. Perhaps also the charge and discharge rates are better suited for battery life. The gasoline engines kick in when needed and the batteries are kept in the sweetheart range for good life. Does anyone have better information?
 
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07S281E

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Hello; One scenario is an EV becomes much like any other electric appliance. That being they are a single use in terms of the battery packs. From what i read so far, the batteries can last around 10 years before losing enough charge percentage to be too limited. If i have this correct every battery pack normally loses the capacity to charge fully even when normal and in good shape. A percent or so per year maybe. Even if the percent is less the outcome is the same over time. At some point the battery pack will only charge up to 80%, then 70% then 60% and so on.
Say it takes 15 years and the chassis has 200,000 miles on it. As things stand an owner has to pay many thousands to get a replacement battery. Even if grandma hardly drives and only has 35,000 miles' on a ten years old EV the battery will still have lost capacity is the way i read it.

An opportune time to learn is upon us if we can get sound data. There are a number of early pure EV's hitting the ten year mark and more currently. How these fare will be a clue about the rest of the EV's. Should be some way to get at the data. I hope the data is not kept from us.

Right now buying an EV is , in my mind, a use it till the batteries go bad then junk it sort of proposition. I cannot see spending perhaps tens of thousands to replace an EV battery on an eight- to ten-year-old EV vehicle.

Side note- the hybrids are not so subject to battery degradation as the pure EV's is my understanding so far. This seems to be because of the way the battery is charged and discharged. They do not charge up to 100% and do not discharge to very low percentages. Perhaps also the charge and discharge rates are better suited for battery life. The gasoline engines kick in when needed and the batteries are kept in the sweetheart range for good life. Does anyone have better information?
My brother bought a prius. After the battery warrantee had run out he was forced to replace the battery. The battery replacement cost him 6000 and he sold the car for 6000. The way I see it electric vehicles are disposable cars.
 

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The thing is - "wait" until when? What is going on right now seems to be the new normal unfortunately....

People are getting in over their heads for sure - if they're complaining about insurance and gas rates on a car they paid in excess of $50k+++, then maybe they shouldn't have gone over their means....

It's like buying a $500k+ home and only putting 30k down.... that's an upside down situation for quite a while before there's any equity especially with the loan rates ... same is true with the car loan to value ratios.

As I've said many times on here -
It's totally stupid for ANYONE to be paying ADM or well above the MSRP on a vehicle.

Why people are agreeing to drop $$$ over the MSRP or going with ridiculous ADM fees - is beyond me. Ask yourself, would you take that same bundle of $ and literally burn it or flush it down the toilet?

If people would stop paying the ridiculous overstated new car values - those cars would sit and the dealer WILL be forced to reduce prices because it's costing them $$$ every day that car sits as well as being a liability on their lot insurance.
something else to consider is this:

1. most people don't own homes
2. that means most people rent
3. rent goes up
4. groceries go up
5. gas goes up
6. that car payment they could afford suddenly gets theatened by cost of living
7. cars are the first to take the hit in a recession


this will take a couple quarters to really flesh itself out and its well underway.

8. i'd say by the end of the year we start seeing people make more noise.
9. by the end of the following quarter businesses will need to adjust for excess inventory.
10. 1.5 quarters from now we will start to see massive price drops due to excess inventory with diminished demand.

next summer you'll be able to have your pick of the litter. i'd bet a cheeseburger on it.
 

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this will take a couple quarters to really flesh itself out and its well underway.
true but the snowball is getting bigger and quick!
10% down in one month at Manheim's index. This is gonna hurt all those dealers (but more so the banks) who got fat and lazy and wrote loans against NPV that was an utter farce.

1.5 quarters from now we will start to see massive price drops due to excess inventory with diminished demand.
I'm expecting Thanksgiving/Christmas to show prices for the imported Chinese 'stuff' to crater. Food will be at all time highs though.

next summer you'll be able to have your pick of the litter. i'd bet a cheeseburger on it.
does said burger even have cow meat or cheese made from actual dairy precursors though? :)
 

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I have a good friend that was in the same situation years back with his Prius. He ended up donating the car for scrap and taking the deduction. They just traded there Merc gas suv for an Audi electric. Interesting decision considering the past experience.


My brother bought a prius. After the battery warrantee had run out he was forced to replace the battery. The battery replacement cost him 6000 and he sold the car for 6000. The way I see it electric vehicles are disposable cars.
 
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RagmopInKona

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It is 3 weeks give or take from Thanksgiving, and the pink slips have started to fly.
Mostly in job's that the employee's thought would not even have to worry about getting canned, if they changed job's it was by choice.
Walmart is already canceling orders for inventory.
It is going to get bumpy real quick.
 

shogun32

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Maesk is cancelling sails. You know it's dire
 

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I think you will find that the price of gas will increase quite a bit as EV vehicles are being pushed into the market to help people make the decision to switch.
Meh, ev's are in the same boat as the CFL light bulb was, a stop gap till led bulb prices dropped.
The ev will be the same till they get fuel cell tech ironed out.
Oil companies and the stock markets will make sure ev's cost the same or more per mile driven AND they have the means to make that happen. As at least here in the USA most of the Nuke power plants are being phased out and coal also, so that leaves the few hydro plants and mostly N/G fired ones. Anyone notice the rise of N/G prices. Yes other factors are at play also. but make no mistake, i.c.e. powered vehicle fleet is the energy sectors cash cow, they are not going to allow it to die. and they will make N/G cost go up , to make electric power cost make the ev not such a good deal.
For many the electric utility's are raising rates 68-80+%. This alone kills any savings an ev had over an ice powered on. And electric rates are going to go up even more by spring.
 

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I wasn`t around in the 1980s, but how did people manage with interest rates of 18%?

I feel like people forget this past decade of low interest rates was not normal when you study a graph.
I would have died for interest rates we have now back in the 80s. The rate I got on my first house was 13.5% and 11.5% on the second. Car loans were worse. By the mid 90s I had learned to pay for everything in cash. It wasn't easy to get to that point, but it sure saved a lot of money.

The rates we have now have been abnormally low for at least 10 years. What really pisses me off is where were 4% loans when I needed them?
 

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RagmopInKona

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I would have died for interest rates we have now back in the 80s. The rate I got on my first house was 13.5% and 11.5% on the second. Car loans were worse. By the mid 90s I had learned to pay for everything in cash. It wasn't easy to get to that point, but it sure saved a lot of money.

The rates we have now have been abnormally low for at least 10 years. What really pisses me off is where were 4% loans when I needed them?
Do the math, 13 &11% on a 75k-85k house is a much better deal than the same house today that is 560k even at a 3.5% rate.
Seems some failed basic math.

House in 1980 78k at 12% you pay 210780 in interest.
same house in 2021 569k at 3.5% you pay 350800 in interest. both 30 year mortgages.
As today at the much lower interest rate we pay 140020.00 MORE in interest . A HUNDRED AND FOURTY THOUSAND DOLLARS MORE. forget the 490k more the same house cost.
Please cry me a river over the high interest rates of the 1980's on homes and cars.
Selective memories and bad math skills. cry me a river.
 

sk47

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Do the math, 13 &11% on a 75k-85k house is a much better deal than the same house today that is 560k even at a 3.5% rate.
Seems some failed basic math.

House in 1980 78k at 12% you pay 210780 in interest.
same house in 2021 569k at 3.5% you pay 350800 in interest. both 30 year mortgages.
As today at the much lower interest rate we pay 140020.00 MORE in interest . A HUNDRED AND FOURTY THOUSAND DOLLARS MORE. forget the 490k more the same house cost.
Please cry me a river over the high interest rates of the 1980's on homes and cars.
Selective memories and bad math skills. cry me a river.
Hello; afraid you are the one with screwy math. You are comparing dollars of very different values at very different points of time.
The example I use is from around 1965. I could go to a drive in restaurant called Connely's and get a meal. Two foot long hot dogs; order of fries and a milk shake cup of milk (at least 16 ounces) for one dollar.
The value (buying power) of the dollar has changed over time so is a moving target for comparison. However, percentage rates hold true more or less. The near zero interest rates that held sway for the last decade plus were a gambit use to deal with national/global issues. Those low interest rates went on far too long and in part helped get us into the financial hole our financial and other leaders have dug.

Inflation has been steadily increasing for decades. Most times it has been a steady sort of increase. Every now and again a spurt which I have seen and endured. This last bit will be among the more painful as the basic fundamentals are deeper and it is not anywhere near finished yet.
 

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Hello; afraid you are the one with screwy math. You are comparing dollars of very different values at very different points of time.
The example I use is from around 1965. I could go to a drive in restaurant called Connely's and get a meal. Two foot long hot dogs; order of fries and a milk shake cup of milk (at least 16 ounces) for one dollar.
The value (buying power) of the dollar has changed over time so is a moving target for comparison. However, percentage rates hold true more or less. The near zero interest rates that held sway for the last decade plus were a gambit use to deal with national/global issues. Those low interest rates went on far too long and in part helped get us into the financial hole our financial and other leaders have dug.

Inflation has been steadily increasing for decades. Most times it has been a steady sort of increase. Every now and again a spurt which I have seen and endured. This last bit will be among the more painful as the basic fundamentals are deeper and it is not anywhere near finished yet.
Wages went up a lot from 1980 till 2006 , and have been flat since. So, if you bought in '80 your income went up as you went, along with the homes value.
Today, wages flat, the same house is 490k more , Home values don't keep going up like they did from the 50-2007, They again will drop. like in 2008-9 . So today, when you buy that 569k house and pay 920k total at the end of 30 years, it not sell for that.
Where as that same house in 1980 that was bought for 78k and you paid 211k in interest, that totaled 291k paid out but you sold it for 569k making money even after paing all that interest. That ship has sailed. never to happen a gain.
The buyer of that 569k home (me) is not going to be able to sell it in 2048 for 1.8 million to balance the past housing market.
Some don't understand how lucky they had it, that will never happen again.
House I used as an example was my childhood home, parents paid 78k, I bought it back from the last owners and it was 569k. Parents sold it in 2007 for 571k
Again some have selective memories and bad math skills when comparing the 80's cost and todays cost
What they bought in '80 value jumped a huge amount, and covered the interest paid and then some.
that isn't going to be reality for buyers today.
 

sk47

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Wages went up a lot from 1980 till 2006 , and have been flat since. So, if you bought in '80 your income went up as you went, along with the homes value.
Today, wages flat, the same house is 490k more , Home values don't keep going up like they did from the 50-2007, They again will drop. like in 2008-9 . So today, when you buy that 569k house and pay 920k total at the end of 30 years, it not sell for that.
Where as that same house in 1980 that was bought for 78k and you paid 211k in interest, that totaled 291k paid out but you sold it for 569k making money even after paing all that interest. That ship has sailed. never to happen a gain.
The buyer of that 569k home (me) is not going to be able to sell it in 2048 for 1.8 million to balance the past housing market.
Some don't understand how lucky they had it, that will never happen again.
House I used as an example was my childhood home, parents paid 78k, I bought it back from the last owners and it was 569k. Parents sold it in 2007 for 571k
Again some have selective memories and bad math skills when comparing the 80's cost and todays cost
What they bought in '80 value jumped a huge amount, and covered the interest paid and then some.
that isn't going to be reality for buyers today.
Hello; Mixed in the post are some correct things. Yes, for decades buying property/houses was a solid investment one could count on to increase. That indeed is no longer a sure bet as we found in 2007 to 2010. I know because I bought me my current and first home in 2010 for less than the previous owner had paid just four years before. Some folks lost a lot of money and some made out well. It was a sort of modified musical chairs of finance/property flipping and depended on what you held when the music stopped.

As far as what a home will sell for in 2048, a jump from $569K to $1.8 million is not out of the question. Government spending/borrowing has been, currently is and looks to be out of control for the near future. There is something I hear called "modern monetary theory" which does not make sense to me but has become an excuse for potential unlimited spending/borrowing. There is no natural upper limit for inflation as has been shown in past and current experiences in countries which played fast and loose with spending and debt

This thread is about car repos. I fear too many people are upside down in their overall debts including for vehicles. Especially those who bought in the last few years. Buying during a time when new car dealers commonly added on to the MSRP, in some cases a lot, pretty much has to put you holding an undervalued asset for what you paid. Even if you paid cash. If you had to finance, even at low rates, such will add to the value difference.

We started to see the early indicators in posts on this site. For a time, Mustang owners were selling used cars to dealers such a CARVANA for more than they had paid new. After a time, some former owners posted that the cars they sold to such places were being listed for sale at many thousands less. The bubble perhaps had burst. I do not see how those type dealers can stay in business. In my financial musical chairs analogy, they will not find a chair when the music stops. They have to be holding some inventory they paid wat too much for and will have to take a big loss.

EDIT- I forgot to add that I agree with your comment. We do not quite yet understand how lucky we had it in the past compared to what is happening now and is about to get worse in the near future. I have a somewhat different take as to why, but it likely washes out overall as we both seem to think things are very screwed currently.
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