As many have predicted…

[Cobra Jet]

CJ, if I may tack on just a quick comment to your thorough and insightful post from a retired industry insider: it’s rare to see anyone actually mention the “Black Book”, but it is the gold standard for wholesale trade in values and is the only yardstick actually used by most dealers. I don’t know why such a big deal is made of NADA book value and Kelley Blue Book. They’re essentially worthless unless a dealer wants to be buried in his used car inventory. In fact, NADA wholesale is often used as a guide to actual retail prices, if you need one.

Additionally, I might suggest that guys like us aren’t prevalent enough to really do much toward setting the market. We’d like to think we are but enthusiasts make up only a small part of the market. Most GT buyers have no idea what a PP1 even is, and neither do most appraisers. I don’t know for sure but I kinda doubt there is even an add-on for such obscure stuff in the black book. Maybe, but if so most appraisers have no idea how to identify it. Bottom line: enthusiasts like us are pretty much the nut job fringe and not really the overall market makers we’d like to think.

Again, excellent post!

because it's the only source the RETAIL CONSUMER has access to. Black requires $$$ to access. And therefore the dealers are obliged to talk to retail in language/references they understand. NADA/KBB didn't used to be unglued from reality or Black. Black is falling off a cliff by the day but NADA/KBB aren't tracking.

Agree with everything you both have said too.

The "Blue Book", be it Kelly, Edmunds, or whatever else anyone wants to categorize into "Blue Book" territory - it's just garbage "make ya feel good" values. Everyone hears "Blue Book" and sees it like the "bible" of vehicle values - but it's not and is far from the true values.

Correct, mention Black Book and everyone stops and is like "whut!?!?".... Black Book just as stated above, is subscription based, not an off the shelf public accessible periodical like Time Magazine, or where grubby hands can find a NADA or Kelley Blue Book next to Motortrend or Mad Magazine in their local CVS.

The values in the Black Book are most accurate as mentioned and the Dealers and Lenders use it exclusively. This is why when people show up to Dealerships with "Blue Book" print outs and the Sales Dood or the "Finance Mgr" tells them their Blue Book isn't "accurate" and the Dealership undermines the Customer's valuation with some obscene low ball offer.

The Dealership, their "approved Lenders" and any outside Lender already knows what they will allow for financing on XYZ vehicle due to the Black Book values.

Agree, "we" as the Enthusiasts won't change anything as far as the car markets. However, WE know better as an educated group as to what prices on Mustangs is acceptable to US, and what is just purely BS price points, be it retail value, private party value or in some instance auction/consignment values.

I believe the majority of us on this forum have just been relaying::

Watch the car market before making an emotional decision, because values are dropping - some models very drastically, others slowly, but market is coming down.

----
Using this totally random USED 2021 Mustang Mach 1 (pretty loaded example) found on CarGurus:
2021 Ford Mustang Mach 1
$59,998
Mileage: 4,391
Location: Concord, NC
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/link/325880090

It's been sitting on the selling Dealer's lot for now 202 days, with the listed price being adjusted down 6x since its initial August 2022 listing, a total reduction of now $12k.

With the asking price of $59k, it still sits, because the price is just still too high for what is now a 2 year old used vehicle.

There are many used vehicles currently rotting on Dealer lots like the one above..

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[no rest]

Canada. CAD$ vs USD$ is about 70%

So M1 in USD $ is about $60,000-$61000
M1 in CAD$ is about $81,000-$83,000

And yet fully loaded gt pp1 is 68,000-69,000 cad 50,000-52000 usd . same car built on ford.com 59,000-60,000 usd which is 79,000-80,000 cad. odd not much of a price difference in usa for gt pp1 to mach 1. Yet for Canada its at least 10,000 or more.

 

[Hack]

it'll come back down. You want 'nut kicking', I could have bought any of five '19 GT350R for 65K+tax new off the lot back in 2019 and early 2020.

That was the bottom of the market. I wasn't interested in Rs, but I remember brand new GT350s for about $5K under MSRP at that time. I wish I would have gone for it.

 

[Bulldog9]

July of 2020, I paid $45,250 for my Bullitt. MSRP was just under $52K.

Very happy with the price, and the car. I still joke that the only thing wrong with it was that it was a Ford, but the car continues to impress with its performance, comfort and reliability. About to tick over 20K miles and just oil changes thus far.

Performance, Comfort, Functionality (4 seats and real trunk) Fuel Economy, reliability, and cost of maintenance make this a perfect car for me. Are there cars I want more? YEP....... Are and will they be worth the cost delta, especially over the next 10 -15 years? NOPE.........

 

[308 Cal. Bullitt]

We have used Black Book for years.
If your a dealer or in the business, you know about it. Its been overtaken by Manheim & others in past few yrs, who report daily to the databases they offer clients at a hefty subscription price per month.

Normally, you must pay monthly.
B/B gives loan values.
Before you complain how you don't like it, we are giving u a link to a no paywall version. I assume it still works.

http://www.blackbookportals.com/bb/...olesale=True&showretail=True&showtradein=True

 

[shogun32]

Lowest price for an S550 GT500 around me is a couple 2020’s in the mid to high $70k’s. They’re still too highly sought after, at least around here.

Ourisman just got another today off the truck.

 

[jmagnus87]

$60k for an S197 GT500 maybe but not an S550 GT500. Lowest price for an S550 GT500 around me is a couple 2020’s in the mid to high $70k’s. They’re still too highly sought after, at least around here.

Given that on the original window stickers brand new they were 59,000-61,000 with gas guzzler tax AND delivery fee, I'm not paying a dime over 60k for one myself...
and for whomever had the depreciation calculations what say you too this??
Also, my truck is down 5k from 65k and I'll attach my black book value, thanks for the link!

 

[shogun32]

and for whomever had the depreciation calculations what say you too this??

Bbportal is smoking some good shyt. The options row is complete whack. It would help to see the entire page...

Also I have to wonder how old the data set is. It doesn't match Manheim by a mile.

 

[jmagnus87]

Oh it picked roush for some reason sorry dunno why

 

[stannypack]

Picked up a base manual ecoboost MSRP 29k for 23k early December, feel like I got a good deal

 

[Garfy]

More imprtantly, the housing market has collapsed.

To a worse degree than in 2007-2008.

That's really heavy news, not that the main-stream media is covering the story, and one that will further effect the vehicle market.

Bad times ahead folks. The economy is going to take a gigantic dump.

Unfortunately, it's not happening here. We bought our home in 2003 for $416K. Last year's property tax assessment came in at just over $900K, but this year's assessment is now $1.3 million! The real estate prices are even higher here. I certainly hope the housing market crashes so our property taxes will go down.

 

[derklink]

Unfortunately, it's not happening here. We bought our home in 2003 for $416K. Last year's property tax assessment came in at just over $900K, but this year's assessment is now $1.3 million! The real estate prices are even higher here. I certainly hope the housing market crashes so our property taxes will go down.

Geesh, what state are you in? I pay tax on an assessed value that is about 15% of my house's market value. Still quite a number though. Guess the tax rate is the deciding factor. Also, house values in my area still climbing. That is for the nice ones in a good location. Average ones have softened a little but not by too much.

 

[Garfy]

Geesh, what state are you in? I pay tax on an assessed value that is about 15% of my house's market value. Still quite a number though. Guess the tax rate is the deciding factor. Also, house values in my area still climbing. That is for the nice ones in a good location. Average ones have softened a little but not by too much.

Hawaii. That's why thousands of multi-generational born-and-raised here residents have moved and continue to move to the mainland. Here's another example of crazy cost-of-living expenses here; a gallon of whole milk is $7.99 ON SALE! Don't even get me started on eggs, meat, etc.

 

[RagmopInKona]

I guess the rapid price decline compared to other cars naturally follows an overly rapid run up.

A lot of us, myself included, overpaid for our cars during this period of inflated prices. I personally don’t mind; I always knew the market would normalize at some point but I didn’t want to miss out on two years of fun in the meantime. We all come with an expiration date and never know when it is. And patience is not my long suit anyway.

https://fordauthority.com/2023/01/ford-mustang-among-top-used-cars-with-largest-price-drops/

Same. Covid almost killed me. No matter what anyone thinks about it just being a bad strain of the seasonal flu or other. It almost did me in. So I went out and bought a new fun car. It was a wake up call that tomorrow may never come.
I didn't overpay but even if I did go that route , The miles of smiles and grins ear to ear would be worth it.

I didn't read the link yet, but I wonder if they used the original msrp and value now, or what the dealers sold them for and today's value.
The dealer I bought from had 10k "market adjustments" on all GT and Mach1's and even exployers and was selling them as fast as they could get them .

I think it won't matter if you overpaid in the end for most folks as the loan rates then to now, will make it a wash when you look at total cost . The cash buyers that paid the market adjusted buy in. will take a bath. But I doubt many buy a Sports car they plan on driving and think it is a wise money investment. Too many discount the enjoyment of the drive and don't factor than into the "value" of ownership.

 

[young at heart]

Same. Covid almost killed me. No matter what anyone thinks about it just being a bad strain of the seasonal flu or other. It almost did me in. So I went out and bought a new fun car. It was a wake up call that tomorrow may never come.
I didn't overpay but even if I did go that route , The miles of smiles and grins ear to ear would be worth it.

I didn't read the link yet, but I wonder if they used the original msrp and value now, or what the dealers sold them for and today's value.
The dealer I bought from had 10k "market adjustments" on all GT and Mach1's and even exployers and was selling them as fast as they could get them .

I think it won't matter if you overpaid in the end for most folks as the loan rates then to now, will make it a wash when you look at total cost . The cash buyers that paid the market adjusted buy in. will take a bath. But I doubt many buy a Sports car they plan on driving and think it is a wise money investment. Too many discount the enjoyment of the drive and don't factor than into the "value" of ownership.

Good for you man, and I’m sure glad you made it through! I’ve personally been trying to dodge it for almost 3 years now, and it hasn’t been easy or fun. But given my age and having 4 out of the 5 mitigating factors that multiply the morbidity, I had no choice.

But buying new cars during that time has been a great diversion and a lot of fun. I’ve bought 4 new cars since the fall of ‘20, 3 Mustangs and an SUV for my wife. 3 out of the 4 deals involved a trade but in each case I was able to structure the deal with zero human contact. All paperwork, titles, checks etc. were passed through a 1” crack in the passenger side window. Sounds weird but it worked and I’m having a ball tearing up the backroads of N. GA as a result.

Yes, all dealers were trying hard for ADM, at least on GTs and Mach 1s but if you work ‘em a little they’ll cave. But as you point out, even if you pay a little what does it matter in the long run? Get the car you want and can afford and hit the road. As I said I’m older and as a lifelong car guy I’ve had tons of great cars. But I’ve never had one any more fun than one of these Mustangs!

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