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Anybody buying this media fueled COVID-19 bull schitt?

Rash

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Cancer, cigarette smoking, etc are not contagious and do not increase exponentially with exposure. We are in the early stages of this pandemic. US has approximately 300 million population. Even if only one in 10 are infected, that’s 30 million people. Assuming at best a 2% death rate, that’s 600,000. Even 1% would be 300,000. Current estimates are that far more than one in 10 people will contract this. Thus the millions of deaths estimate. If 1 in 5 are infected at 2 person death rate, we are over 1 million deaths. California projects 50% infection rate. That’s 20 million infected and 400,000 dead in CA alone. There’s your math. Wake up people.
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newmoon

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Cancer, cigarette smoking, etc are not contagious and do not increase exponentially with exposure. We are in the early stages of this pandemic. US has approximately 300 million population. Even if only one in 10 are infected, that’s 30 million people. Assuming at best a 2% death rate, that’s 600,000. Even 1% would be 300,000. Current estimates are that far more than one in 10 people will contract this. Thus the millions of deaths estimate. If 1 in 5 are infected at 2 person death rate, we are over 1 million deaths. California projects 50% infection rate. That’s 20 million infected and 400,000 dead in CA alone. There’s your math. Wake up people.
7.8 Billion people on earth. So far 3+ months in we are at 13,500 deaths worldwide. Still waiting for valid math.
 

Bikeman315

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7.8 Billion people on earth. So far 3+ months in we are at 13,500 deaths worldwide. Still waiting for valid math.
Last chance. Look it up.

ex·po·nen·tial
/ˌekspəˈnen(t)SH(ə)l/

adjective
  1. 1.
    (of an increase) becoming more and more rapid.
    "the social security budget was rising at an exponential rate"
  2. 2.
    MATHEMATICS
    of or expressed by a mathematical exponent.
    "an exponential curve"
 

newmoon

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So you or anyone else spreading this false doomsday information has no valid math to reach the conclusions that are being thrown out there. The facts are an inconvenient thing (3+ months, 7.8 Billion Population, 13,500 deaths) But hey lets continue to destroy the economy for years to come!
 

BlackandBlue

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Ok we are at 348 deaths as of this morning. Please show us your math where you arrive at 1-30 million, I'll be waiting.

I fully understand your reality is being broken here. To face the fact that :months of quarantine are ahead with untold economic pain is terrible. The reality is this thing is terrible. Comparing it to something familiar helps the brain to comprehend but it’s not a valid comparison.

When you look at deaths you are looking at the cases from ~20 days ago.

So to say we currently have 100 cases and 3 deaths is incorrect. You should say 20 days ago we had X cases and X deaths today from that.

Italy is starting to not treat people over 60. What do you think will happen there? 10-20% CFR?
https://m.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856

The US will soon be at that point. The age number will just keep going down. 60-55-50-45-40.
Doctors will devote resources to the patients with the best chance of survival.

If you want to understand this thing start reading.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/
 

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Shifting_Gears

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So you or anyone else spreading this false doomsday information has no valid math to reach the conclusions that are being thrown out there. The facts are an inconvenient thing (3+ months, 7.8 Billion Population, 13,500 deaths) But hey lets continue to destroy the economy for years to come!
7.8 billion people haven’t been inflected. Based on current stats, your example of 7.8 billion INFECTED people would result in 312,000,000 deaths (roughly 4% mortality rate and that is CURRENT and absolutely underrated). That’s nearly all of the United States.

Your methodology is wrong. You’re asking for facts that can’t be proven accurately yet because we are in the unknown. Taking extreme preventative measures isn’t dooms day material. Dooms day decisions are saying “it’ll run its course”, sitting back and doing nothing.

The virus hasn’t stopped spreading and those that have recently contracted likely haven’t peaked in their illness. There’s many poor and under developed countries that are going to be hit incredibly hard by this and we haven’t seen the tip of the iceburg for the rest of the world and hardly here in the USA.

You can pretend this is overrated and continue life as normal. This is going to be ugly for a lot of people and show how flawed our spending/savings/debt habits are. Not many people are positioned to ride something like this out unscathed or with minimal impact.

The hands are forced on employers to be responsible in stopping the spread. The hands are forced on restaurants, leisure activities, etc to stop the spread and I agree 100% even though it’s crippling our economy. When you face an unknown, it makes a lot of people uncomfortable.

Look at it this way.
Would you cut off a toe to save your foot?
Would you cut off your foot to save your leg?
Would you cut off your leg to save your life?

This is basically where we are at.
 

newmoon

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I fully understand your reality is being broken here. To face the fact that :months of quarantine are ahead with untold economic pain is terrible. The reality is this thing is terrible. Comparing it to something familiar helps the brain to comprehend but it’s not a valid comparison.

When you look at deaths you are looking at the cases from ~20 days ago.

So to say we currently have 100 cases and 3 deaths is incorrect. You should say 20 days ago we had X cases and X deaths today from that.

Italy is starting to not treat people over 60. What do you think will happen there? 10-20% CFR?
https://m.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856

The US will soon be at that point. The age number will just keep going down. 60-55-50-45-40.
Doctors will devote resources to the patients with the best chance of survival.

If you want to understand this thing start reading.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/
I am looking at present conditions as of today, Worldwide. (3+ months, 7.8 Billion Population, 13,600 deaths!) Also understand many of the deaths have occurred in Countries which have no where near the medical resources which are available in the United States.
 

BlackandBlue

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I am looking at present conditions as of today, Worldwide. (3+ months, 7.8 Billion Population, 13,600 deaths!) Also understand many of the deaths have occurred in Countries which have no where near the medical resources which are available in the United States.
Feb 21 Italy had 21 cases with 0 deaths.
March 21 53,000 cases with 4825 deaths. Less than a month.
Where will they be April 21st? What about us?

Exponential Growth takes a little while to get going but when it does god help us. I understand I won’t win this argument with you. I don’t really want too. I wish things were different. They are not. This will be terrible.

Get prepared man.
B5B327B5-163F-4C09-BDF6-B6D60D12F1AB.png
 
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pacomicro

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I am looking at present conditions as of today, Worldwide. (3+ months, 7.8 Billion Population, 13,600 deaths!) Also understand many of the deaths have occurred in Countries which have no where near the medical resources which are available in the United States.
From Spain and in confinement.
Perhaps you would not like your parents, grandparents, siblings, wife or children to be the ones to die, it is wrong to think that young people are not affected, even without previous pathologies, there is no health care system in the world, not even in the USA, prepared for the great number of people who need hospitalization and much less for those who need intensive care and respirators.
Young people are the ones who mostly spread the disease because many of them are asymptomatic.
 

pacomicro

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I am 58 years old and I would never have imagined this, besides, do not believe what the media say, the situation is much more serious than they say, right now in Madrid the health system has collapsed:

80% of people will be infected

15% will need hospital assistance, in any age range

5% need intensive care unit assistance

3% will die
 
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pacomicro

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The government, due to the stupidity of the people who have bought masks and gloves en masse, has had to issue an order for all people and companies to hand over the masks, gloves and hydroalcoholic gel that they have in their possession... this is the closest thing to a war that can be seen.
 

pacomicro

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Despite warnings from the authorities, there are still people who go out cycling or running, it is very important to stay at home to try and break the chain of contagion, the fines here for skipping the confinement order are up to 300,000 euros and a prison sentence.

If there's anything specific you want to know, I'll try to answer
 
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Despite warnings from the authorities, there are still people who go out cycling or running, it is very important to stay at home to try and break the chain of contagion, the fines here for skipping the confinement order are up to 300,000 euros and a prison sentence.

If there's anything specific you want to know, I'll try to answer
Thanks for sharing your situation. How are you and your family holding up?
 

pacomicro

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Thanks for sharing your situation. How are you and your family holding up?
My family and I are fine, although my parents are 87 and 85 years old and they are afraid, my mother-in-law is a diabetic and is one of the most at risk groups.
But thank God I live in the north of Spain, where the incidence of cases is lower, especially because we live in populations with low density of people and single-family homes, but really the situation is very worrying, we hope that soon you can find a vaccine
 

pacomicro

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Combination retroviral trials appear to be giving good results in combating high viral load, and thus the high contagiousness of this virus
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