2015 Mustang sales numbers and take rate predictions

[minicobra]

A lot of people on here are saying that they never would have consider Mustang before, largely because of not having IRS, and lack of refinements. Several of my friends, that although like the look and horsepower of my car would never buy one in it's current configuration. Now, they are totally looking at getting one, and I think a lot of people who were into turbo imports will also be swayed into the domestic market.


So, if we consider these things:

1. Current Mustang fans, majority like the new design.
2. Import car buyers, now interested in ecoboost and V8
3. European fans of BMW, VW and Audi, now interested.
4. The car is going GLOBAL, this right here is going to increase sales alone.

Add all these up, and I won't be a bit surprised that 2015/2016 model sales top
that of 2005/06.

Heck, I'm a Mustang fan, and I didn't even buy the 2005 re-design because of the
solid rear axel. I told my self after the Terminator I wouldn't buy a brand new Mustang until they can get a decent IRS in there. Of course I didn't hold out and bought a 2012 GT500. :-)

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[HGFireHazard]

I can imagine a smaller, cheaper, less-well-equipped Mustang starting at, say, $18K getting to 200K. Seriously.

Now, many will say, 'No freakin' way. I want a Mustang that competes with BMWs and Corvettes, not with Civics and Scions. I want all the bells and whistles, and if that means a starting price north of $25K, so be it.' And that's a perfectly valid point of view. I get that. It's just that the less affordable the car gets, the harder it will be to regain high-volume sales. Again, some will respond, 'Well, I don't care about high-volume sales. The more exclusive, the better.' And that's also a perfectly valid point of view. I'm just trying to offer an alternate viewpoint to those making bold predictions of this car selling in numbers equal or better than the '05-06.

The problem with this scenario is the problem with every car (or buyer I should say) in this price range. People piss and moan about what they don't have. A car in that price range is going to have hard plastic interiors, be very minimal in their options, and really just plain. Then they complain about it. What people want is a car that's worth $25k, or more, but only costs $18k, and that just doesn't work.

 

[Free Agent]

A lot of people on here are saying that they never would have consider Mustang before, largely because of not having IRS, and lack of refinements. Several of my friends, that although like the look and horsepower of my car would never buy one in it's current configuration. Now, they are totally looking at getting one, and I think a lot of people who were into turbo imports will also be swayed into the domestic market.


So, if we consider these things:

1. Current Mustang fans, majority like the new design.
2. Import car buyers, now interested in ecoboost and V8
3. European fans of BMW, VW and Audi, now interested.
4. The car is going GLOBAL, this right here is going to increase sales alone.

Add all these up, and I won't be a bit surprised that 2015/2016 model sales top
that of 2005/06.

Heck, I'm a Mustang fan, and I didn't even buy the 2005 re-design because of the
solid rear axel. I told my self after the Terminator I wouldn't buy a brand new Mustang until they can get a decent IRS in there. Of course I didn't hold out and bought a 2012 GT500. :-)

I truly hope you are correct. I'd love to see that happen. I just don't share your optimism. I hope I am wrong though. I do plan to be one of those "never bought a Mustang before conquest sales".

 

[nite]

The V6 is a base Mustang, the GT comes in either twin-scroll I-4, or V8.

mmm, if that's the case, that's news on all of us... as far as we've been told, the gt will be v8 only, and though the i4 will be marketed above the v6, there's been no mention of it being a gt.

then again you are in michigan; are you giving us a scoop?

 

[trolls56]

mmm, if that's the case, that's news on all of us... as far as we've been told, the gt will be v8 only, and though the i4 will be marketed above the v6, there's been no mention of it being a gt.

then again you are in michigan; are you giving us a scoop?

You are correct. There is only one GT which is the coyote. The v6 and i4 are both base models. People in the US getting confused cuz they threw in the v6.

 

[Patio208]

You are correct. There is only one GT which is the coyote. The v6 and i4 are both base models. People in the US getting confused cuz they threw in the v6.

By definition the I4 is not the base model. Base model in common usage = lowest priced, least optioned, lowest trim level. The I4 is an upgrade/option/package, trim, etc.....whatever you want to call it above the base V6. Those magic words make it anything but a base model. It's simple really if it's marketed above the base in price, performance, etc and offered as an option then it can not be the base. Somebody tell me if I missed something here:shrug:

base (v6)> I4 (unknown badge)> GT (V8)>GT350 and or GT500.

 

[trolls56]

By definition the I4 is not the base model. Base model in common usage = lowest priced, least optioned, lowest trim level. The I4 is an upgrade/option/package, trim, etc.....whatever you want to call it above the base V6. Those magic words make it anything but a base model. It's simple really if it's marketed above the base in price, performance, etc and offered as an option then it can not be the base. Somebody tell me if I missed something here:shrug:

base (v6)> I4 (unknown badge)> GT (V8)>GT350 and or GT500.

i4 is base model everywhere other than US. It is still base model here too. There isn't going to be any special badges for it. Base model with an engine choice. There is going to be a Mustang then a Mustang GT. The Mustang you will have the choice of a v6 or i4 then you will get to choose automatic or manual. Funny thing to me is the guys that keep trying to say the I4 is not base are either Chevy guys or import guys. There is also a difference between a base model GT and a Premium GT. Maybe in Chevy land base model means different things.

 

[Patio208]

i4 is base model everywhere other than US. It is still base model here too. There isn't going to be any special badges for it. Base model with an engine choice. There is going to be a Mustang then a Mustang GT. The Mustang you will have the choice of a v6 or i4 then you will get to choose automatic or manual. Funny thing to me is the guys that keep trying to say the I4 is not base are either Chevy guys or import guys. There is also a difference between a base model GT and a Premium GT. Maybe in Chevy land base model means different things.

Ok there is some logic in that argument. A base model with an engine option, I like it! I could see the I4 essentially being a base Premium package or something like that. But again that would make it a Mustang premium not a base model. The models would flow like this: Mustang (v6)> Mustang Premium (I4)> Mustang GT (v8)> Mustang GT premium (v8)>GT 350 and or GT500. By the way I'm not an import guy or a Chevy guy, I'm a lifelong Ford Mustang guy;) but no hard feelings here it's a good debate. We will have answers soon enough.

 

[aardvark]

There isn't going to be any special badges for it.

Well, we haven't seen any special badges yet, but it's not completely impossible that they could decide to slap on the standard EcoBoost badge (seen on the Fusion, etc). Final details like that are still subject to change.

 

[trolls56]

Ok there is some logic in that argument. A base model with an engine option, I like it! I could see the I4 essentially being a base Premium package or something like that. But again that would make it a Mustang premium not a base model. The models would flow like this: Mustang (v6)> Mustang Premium (I4)> Mustang GT (v8)> Mustang GT premium (v8)>GT 350 and or GT500. By the way I'm not an import guy or a Chevy guy, I'm a lifelong Ford Mustang guy;) but no hard feelings here it's a good debate. We will have answers soon enough.

Ford has shown us the ecoboost already with no badges. Sorry yes you are Ford guy like me but everyone else seems to be Chevy or imports. I'm just happy there isn't any mopar guys in here haha. You could be right they won't let you have I4 without premium package. I just look at how they package the f150s and they use them as engine choices not models.

 

[NRMStand]

Here are the Mustang's recent sales numbers by year:

2005 160,975
2006 166,530
2007 134,626
2008 91,251
2009 66,623
2010 73,716
2011 70,438
2012 82,995
2013 on pace for about 78k.

As background, Ford has sold 400k Ecoboost F150's since they were introduced in Feb 2011. (source)

The Ecoboost accounts for 45% of its sales which surpasses the V8 take rate since the 3.7L base accounts for a little over 10% take rate. Keep in mind also the F150 has 2 V8 options and together they still are outsold by the V6 Ecoboost.


My guess is total sales for the first full year could reach as high as 130-150k. If they can steal away about 20k Camaro/Challenger sales combined (look at how much of a hit the Mustang took in 2008/2009 when Camaro returned), add about 10k in overseas sales (based on their own estimates of 10% of total production ending up overseas), and add another 10-20k in NEW customers (meaning non pony car buyers) in the US, it's more than possible. I wonder what Ford has projected and what numbers they would be happy with.


As for take rate, from this forum alone it seems like there is a lot of interest in the new engine and I'm guessing V6 sales would account for no more than 15-20% of sales which would be about 20k cars. With fleet sales it could be higher but that's almost not enough to justify keeping it around. They might as well scrap it and add a new engine offering that could draw in even more customers.... like the 3.5L TT.

I think some may be missing the point of the I4 a bit. I firmly believe the I4 is gunning for current V8 owners and the V6 is just an afterthought. Sure V6 sales will be demolished after this but I think what Ford really cares about is the new engine allows them to push up the price of the GT since there is now a 'tweener price point they've hit. V8 purists will have to fork over a few thousand more for the privilege of not helping meet CAFE numbers. V8 take rate will come down (see F-150 for how that works) and that's what Ford wants. Sure the I4 will cost less and be somwhat less profitable but it can be balanced by more volume and if Ford were to offer some kind of special SVO tuner package which I think would be hugely popular. They will also make up for it with a more expensive GT.

All my own speculation but this is the business proposition of the I4 in my mind, for Ford.

 

[crysalis_01]

Ford has shown us the ecoboost already with no badges. Sorry yes you are Ford guy like me but everyone else seems to be Chevy or imports. I'm just happy there isn't any mopar guys in here haha. You could be right they won't let you have I4 without premium package. I just look at how they package the f150s and they use them as engine choices not models.

I dont remember exactly where I read, but somewhere it was stated that the badge "structure" hasn't been completly fleshed out. Ford still has some time to sort this out.

 

[thePill]

I remember I read somewhere that Ford said the V6 was actually a sub-base model just so everyone could afford the car. The drivetrain cost for a 3.7 and Getrag are almost zero. There is a surplus of 3.7's left over, after those are sold, production will phase out to something else.

Once the 5.0 receives direct injection and approaches 500hp, an EB3.5 could be introduced into the Mustang. Between 375-410hp...

 

[Rickycardo]

I think some may be missing the point of the I4 a bit. I firmly believe the I4 is gunning for current V8 owners and the V6 is just an afterthought. Sure V6 sales will be demolished after this but I think what Ford really cares about is the new engine allows them to push up the price of the GT since there is now a 'tweener price point they've hit. V8 purists will have to fork over a few thousand more for the privilege of not helping meet CAFE numbers. V8 take rate will come down (see F-150 for how that works) and that's what Ford wants. Sure the I4 will cost less and be somwhat less profitable but it can be balanced by more volume and if Ford were to offer some kind of special SVO tuner package which I think would be hugely popular. They will also make up for it with a more expensive GT.

All my own speculation but this is the business proposition of the I4 in my mind, for Ford.

I think your speculation is spot on. As a world class car I think Ford is counting on the I4 as main performance staple outside the US, with the V8 approaching "Supercar" status. Here in the US they know many potential Mustang owners will not want a I4...yet. Many younger drivers who are accustomed to imports will go for it with a tech package.
There's a limited number of us V8 enthusiasts. If Ford is to increase sales then they'll have to build a car that can grab a new influx of drivers.

 

[w3rkn]

I think your speculation is spot on. As a world class car I think Ford is counting on the I4 as main performance staple outside the US, with the V8 approaching "Supercar" status. Here in the US they know many potential Mustang owners will not want a I4...yet. Many younger drivers who are accustomed to imports will go for it with a tech package.
There's a limited number of us V8 enthusiasts. If Ford is to increase sales then they'll have to build a car that can grab a new influx of drivers.

Correct, and there is a question as to what the 2.3l-ts model will be called. Several debates, but the natural fit, would be harken to SVO.

I think within the next few years, Ford will phase out the hefty V8s in Mustangs, leaving that for uber drag crowd. While the turbo enthusiast take to the tracks like never before. The IRS is going to draw in a whole other crowd of enthusiasts.

Coincidentally, it is logical, that we will see Ford introduce an SVT with a twin-turbo V6 & a GT500 with a uber V8. I see them eventually phasing out the inefficient V6, leaving variations of the 2.3L-ts and 3.7L-TT, or some other new turbo (EB3.5, etc)). Leaving lower volume V8s being sold at GT500/SnuperSnake tiers.

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